Anthony Cirelli - Can The Sabres of Buffalo Realistically Obtain Him, And If So, What Would It Cost?

[JohnC]

33 minutes ago, Curt said:

Agree that it’s unlikely that Cirelli is both (1) moved, and (2) moved with the division to Buffalo.

Small quibble, Tampa was always in a fine position to resign Stamkos.  The only question was if he wanted to go somewhere else or not.  Specifically, whether he wanted to be close to home (Toronto).

My understanding is that he could have gotten more gross money signing with Toronto or New York. However, the salary differential was narrowed because Florida has no state income tax. As it stood he was in a good situation playing with a good organization that was a perennial cup contender. Considering all the factors he was in a good situation and decided to stay in a good situation. The same scenario applies to Cirelli as a player and Tampa as an organization. 

In a year or two it is hoped that Cozens will develop into a 2C. So it doesn't make sense to trade for a top tier center and end up yielding a lot of assets for an already thin team. If I had to guess I would lean toward the front office making a deal for a player such as Anaheim's Adam Henrique to fill the position for the short term until Cozens is ready.  

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

My understanding is that he could have gotten more gross money signing with Toronto or New York. However, the salary differential was narrowed because Florida has no state income tax. As it stood he was in a good situation playing with a good organization that was a perennial cup contender. Considering all the factors he was in a good situation and decided to stay in a good situation. The same scenario applies to Cirelli as a player and Tampa as an organization. 

In a year or two it is hoped that Cozens will develop into a 2C. So it doesn't make sense to trade for a top tier center and end up yielding a lot of assets for an already thin team. If I had to guess I would lean toward the front office making a deal for a player such as Anaheim's Adam Henrique to fill the position for the short term until Cozens is ready.  

We shouldn't plan for a situation where Cozens is the 2C as it's no guarantee - that's no way to run a franchise, relying on hope. Besides, we need another true top 6 player REGARDLESS of if Cozens solidifies himself in that spot, down the line. Which, the likelihood goes up for, if he's brought along properly. 

Of COURSE it makes sense to trade for a top tier centre, we need one! We of course need to be mindful of the assets it'll cost, and weigh that as part of the decision making process, but it's a faulty equation from the start if the second bolded, that "until", is included as part of the process. It's not until, it's "if". 

We aren't in a position to argue against the addition of true top 6 players when we are 33% short of a full compliment to begin with. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

If it's a top 10 protected 1st next year, Mitts, and Johnson, it's such a no-brainer of a "yes" from us that I'm assuming it would cost more. 

The deal you propose is certainly a terrific deal for us. But it is not a reasonable and fair value deal for Tampa. For the sake of discussion if a deal could be made would you deal Risto, Cozens and a 1st next year? I wouldn't. And let's not forget there is an assumption that Cirelli would be willing to sign a long term deal with us. I just don't see the player agreeing to a pre-trade deal in order to make the trade happen. 

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The deal you propose is certainly a terrific deal for us. But it is not a reasonable and fair value deal for Tampa. For the sake of discussion if a deal could be made would you deal Risto, Cozens and a 1st next year? I wouldn't. And let's not forget there is an assumption that Cirelli would be willing to sign a long term deal with us. I just don't see the player agreeing to a pre-trade deal in order to make the trade happen. 

It wasn't my proposal it was @LGR4GM's, I agree it would cost more. 

And no I wouldn't make the deal you suggest. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

We shouldn't plan for a situation where Cozens is the 2C as it's no guarantee - that's no way to run a franchise, relying on hope. Besides, we need another top 6 player REGARDLESS of if Cozens solidifies himself in that spot, down the line. Which, the likelihood goes up for, if he's brought along properly. 

Of COURSE it makes sense to trade for a top tier centre, we need one! We of course need to be mindful of the assets it'll cost, and weight that as part of the decision making process, but it's a fault equation from the start if the second bolded, that "until", is included as part of the process. It's not until, it's "if". 

When you talk about trading for a top tier 2C there is an assumption that the price is going to be high. That's the only way that type of deal is going to be secured. It will require multiple assets moved out to get that valued type of second line center. As I posted in a prior post if theoretically Cirelli or a similar type talent could be dealt for you have to consider giving up a player such as Risto, Cozens and a first round pick, either this year or next. I wouldn't do it. 

[Andrew Amerk]

The Lightning only have $7.8 million in cap space as it stands for next season. With only 15 players under contract for next season, and only three of them being defencemen, the Lightning have some work to do. They will need players on entry-level deals to step up. However, that does not solve the issues they will have signing key free agents in Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak. I’m not sure how they’re gonna make it all work, it’ll be interesting to see. 
 

I also don’t think they’d view trading Cirelli to Buffalo as a problem - they traded Drouin to Montreal, and TBL probably doesn’t view the Sabres as any immediate threat to their dominance. 
 

The presence of Cozens on the Buffalo roster shouldn’t be an issue either - having “too many” good centers is a good problem to have. My main curiosity is what we would have to give up, as it’s been pointed out that we do have a lack of depth as it is. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

It wasn't my proposal it was @LGR4GM, I agree it would cost more. 

And no I wouldn't make the deal you suggest. 

In general our views in this topic are in alignment. 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

When you talk about trading for a top tier 2C there is an assumption that the price is going to be high. That's the only way that type of deal is going to be secured. It will require multiple assets moved out to get that valued type of second line center. As I posted in a prior post if theoretically Cirelli or a similar type talent could be dealt for you have to consider giving up a player such as Risto, Cozens and a first round pick, either this year or next. I wouldn't do it. 

I'm looking and hoping for more of a JT Miller type deal, or ROR, where almost nothing, relatively, was given up. It does happen. (I'm not really saying NOTHING was given up, for Miller, but, that deal looks ridiculous right now.)

Edited July 5, 2020 by Thorny

[Andrew Amerk]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The deal you propose is certainly a terrific deal for us. But it is not a reasonable and fair value deal for Tampa. For the sake of discussion if a deal could be made would you deal Risto, Cozens and a 1st next year? I wouldn't. And let's not forget there is an assumption that Cirelli would be willing to sign a long term deal with us. I just don't see the player agreeing to a pre-trade deal in order to make the trade happen. 

Id have to think if TBL was going to consider a trade, a Risto contract isn’t something they’d want to take on. They’d want prospects, picks, cheap players. 

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

The Lightning only have $7.8 million in cap space as it stands for next season. With only 15 players under contract for next season, and only three of them being defencemen, the Lightning have some work to do. They will need players on entry-level deals to step up. However, that does not solve the issues they will have signing key free agents in Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak. I’m not sure how they’re gonna make it all work, it’ll be interesting to see. 
 

I also don’t think they’d view trading Cirelli to Buffalo as a problem - they traded Drouin to Montreal, and TBL probably doesn’t view the Sabres as any immediate threat to their dominance. 
 

The presence of Cozens on the Buffalo roster shouldn’t be an issue either - having “too many” good centers is a good problem to have. My main curiosity is what we would have to give up, as it’s been pointed out that we do have a lack of depth as it is. 

It's just...it's so much easier to fill JT Compher and Zadorov sized holes than it is ROR sized holes, ya know? Depth is easy to fill back up if the depth you are bringing in is only expected to be, ya know, DEPTH. Foreign concept with this franchise, I know. 

The way this team has been run is, bring in a depth guy like Johansson, a few depth guys like Johansson, and by damn, one of them is going to become a top 6 player, right?! Right?

Depth is only depth if it's actually depth. As in - if we get the bigger roles filled, first. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

Just now, Thorny said:

I'm looking and hoping for more of a JT miller type deal, or ROR, where almost nothing, relatively, was given up. 

The ROR deal was a boondoggle for us. It's remarkable how one bad deal could have such a negative lingering effect. The lesson to be learned in that deal is not to be forced to move a player until you can get fair value for that player. 

Miller is a good player. However, I wouldn't be willing to give up this year's first round draft pick for him. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

The ROR deal was a boondoggle for us. It's remarkable how one bad deal could have such a negative lingering effect. The lesson to be learned in that deal is not to be forced to move a player until you can get fair value for that player. 

Miller is a good player. However, I wouldn't be willing to give up this year's first round draft pick for him. 

I would, as he's already the player, right now, we'd be HOPING that pick *MIGHT* become ONE DAY. Jack is in his prime, right now. 

Besides, luckily, JT Miller didn't cost that. We'd be looking at a future 1st, instead. In other words, a steal. 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Id have to think if TBL was going to consider a trade, a Risto contract isn’t something they’d want to take on. They’d want prospects, picks, cheap players. 

I consider Risto's contract a reasonable and fair value contract for him. It is probable that Tampa will have to move out players to retain Cirelli. This is a smart and well run franchise. They will get it done. 

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I would, as he's already the player, right now, we'd be HOPING that pick *MIGHT* become ONE DAY. Jack is in his prime, right now. 

Besides, luckily, JT Miller didn't cost that. We'd be looking at a future 1st, instead. In other words, a steal. 

If it were a future #1 I would make the deal. If it was this year's #1 I wouldn't. 

[kas23]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

He is an RFA without arbitration rights.  He has almost zero leverage.  He can holdout, but that isn’t good for anyone.  He can sign in Europe, but that is a huge step down in competition and far from his home.  His only real leverage is to sign a short-term deal until he can become a UFA, but that may limit his current income.   The truth is if TB is foolish enough to trade him in the division, he’d sign and relatively quickly.  

That said, TB traded Miller To Vancouver.  If they have to trade Cirelli, expect a deal out West somewhere.

Also he only had 44 pts in 68 games.  This isn’t exactly HOF production.  He is a very good player, but again there are probably cheaper alternatives which are much more likely to get done then us acquiring Cirelli even with an offer sheet.

We need to be more realistic.  If by some miracle he is acquired without destroying another part of the team, then great.  However, I can almost guarantee Cirelli won’t be a Sabre next season.

Bullet points

1. TB will almost certainly keep Cirelli.  They will find takers for two of their NTC players and two players like Gourde and Johnson looking for a fresh start.

2. Even if we make an Offer Sheet for Cirelli, it doesn’t mean he’ll sign.  
3. Even if he does sign the offer sheet, TB will match it to keep him, as they can be over the cap in the off-season. This will actually give them the opportunity to still trade two NTCs and keep Cirelli without worrying about the contract negotiations or trade him with the contract done. 

4. Odds of them trading within the division are nearly zero.

It’s not “finding takers for their NTC players”, it’s the other way around. Does a vet want to uproot their family during a pandemic for the exact same amount of money (even less considering taxes). TB doesn’t hold the decision making in this case - it 100% lies with the player. 

[Andrew Amerk]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I consider Risto's contract a reasonable and fair value contract for him. It is probable that Tampa will have to move out players to retain Cirelli. This is a smart and well run franchise. They will get it done. 

If it were a future #1 I would make the deal. If it was this year's #1 I wouldn't. 

I agree that Risto has a fair contract. My point was that TBL isn’t in a position to take on a contract like his - they’re going to need to shed money, not take more on. 

[Thorny]

It's difficult to believe, at the very cheap price JT Miller was moved for, that GMJB couldn't have beaten that offer, and his lack of action here annoys me nearly as much as the removal of ROR in the first place. 

We'd have our 2C, we'd still have our pick this year (lower, but we'd be well in the playoffs) and we'd simply be missing a 1st next season. Dammit. Of course, that would require a timeline with an entirely different Botterill, and he'd still be employed. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

It's like ppl don't realize Tampa has major cap issues. They'd have to trade Full NMC players to fix that so yes, I think cirelli is in play and it won't cost more than i've suggested

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, French Collection said:

Maybe he would sign an offer sheet for a team that is on the rise, especially if he can be the difference maker.

So not Buffalo then.

[thewookie1]

At very least offersheeting Cirelli at 5x6.1mil could serve either as a noose or a springboard. 

A noose as if TBL matches they will have under 2mil in cap space to sign Sergachev and Cernak. Yes, they can go above the cap approximately 90 mil until the season starts but that puts them in an extreme bind. Almost every player on their team has a NTC or NMC, meaning if they don't want to leave; they can't be traded. With a flat cap being in effect; matching Cirelli puts them in quite the predicament. 

There are not many teams that could absorb one of their players without retention even for nothing in return. 

Palat 5.3mil x 2     29 yrs old

Gourde 5.16mil x 5      28 yrs old

Johnson 5mil x 4     29 yrs old

Killorn 4.45mil x 3    30 yrs old

All of them have NTCs and only Killorn has maintained his contract's value. 

McDonagh has 6.75mil x 6    31 yrs old (he too has a NTC)

Tampa has no 1st this year to use as sweetener and obviously their 1sts in the future are more like glorified 2nds.

 

With only 6 mil to work with for all 3 plus a couple depth positions I cannot imagine how they will achieve this. Killorn and Palat might garner interest but in both cases they are making good money and already have NTCs. Johnson and Gourde are close to unmovable if the players put their feet down as both are overpaid badly and will be 33 by contract's end. McDonagh is untradable..... he'll be 37 by the time his nearly 7mil contract ends.

If you go on CapFriendly and make a Lightning team you start with 5.33mil in cap space. If Cirelli makes 6mil, Sergachev 5.5mil and Cernak 2.4mil(on a bridge) they are already at -8.5mil cap space and still short a 4th liner and a Dman not to mention any scratches. 

 

The springboard would be for us.

Edited July 5, 2020 by thewookie1

[Curt]

 

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's like ppl don't realize Tampa has major cap issues. They'd have to trade Full NMC players to fix that so yes, I think cirelli is in play and it won't cost more than i've suggested

They are definitely in rough shape.  I think people have just got it stuck in their heads that because it’s TB, they will somehow easily wiggle their way out of it.  It’s a tough spot.  They will probably have a hard time trying to convince guys with NTCs to waive them right now.

Buffalo should certainly be trying hard to make a deal for Cirelli.  Or if an alternate deal can be found for an acceptable 2C, maybe try to make a deal for Sergachev instead.  TB may be reluctant to trade within the division though.

[Andrew Amerk]

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

 

They are definitely in rough shape.  I think people have just got it stuck in their heads that because it’s TB, they will somehow easily wiggle their way out of it.  It’s a tough spot.  They will probably have a hard time trying to convince guys with NTCs to waive them right now.

Buffalo should certainly be trying hard to make a deal for Cirelli.  Or if an alternate deal can be found for an acceptable 2C, maybe try to make a deal for Sergachev instead.  TB may be reluctant to trade within the division though.

I’d have to think with only 7.8 mil to play with, only 15 current contracts and only 3 D-men for next season, they’d be looking to sign both Cernak and Sergachev and trade Cirelli, or only keep one of Cernak or Sergachev and move one and also Cirelli. 
 

If anything, maybe they’d be asking for Mitts, Joki, and a 1st. 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I’d have to think with only 7.8 mil to play with, only 15 current contracts and only 3 D-men for next season, they’d be looking to sign both Cernak and Sergachev and trade Cirelli, or only keep one of Cernak or Sergachev and move one and also Cirelli. 
 

If anything, maybe they’d be asking for Mitts, Joki, and a 1st. 

Wouldn't give them Joki, Mitts and our 1st sure and maybe a lesser prospect but they ain't getting our future partner for Dahlin

[Andrew Amerk]

32 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Wouldn't give them Joki, Mitts and our 1st sure and maybe a lesser prospect but they ain't getting our future partner for Dahlin

That’s the inherent problem here. If he IS available, other teams can probably offer better than Mitts, 1st, Ryan Johnson (I honestly don’t even know who he is or heard much about him). 
 

STL really paid out their butt to get ROR, so what do we need to give up for Rocco?

[thewookie1]

17 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

That’s the inherent problem here. If he IS available, other teams can probably offer better than Mitts, 1st, Ryan Johnson (I honestly don’t even know who he is or heard much about him). 
 

STL really paid out their butt to get ROR, so what do we need to give up for Rocco?

Who's Rocco?

[Andrew Amerk]

6 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Who's Rocco?