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GASabresIUFAN

2020 Off-season gameplan

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3 hours ago, OhMyDahlin said:

Mittetstadt and a 1st for Adam Henrique? Bleh. We gotta be able to do better than that. I really don't want to trade Mittelstadt right now.


Also, Anaheim is pretty stacked with young centers like Zegras, Steel, Terry, Lundestrom, Morand and Groulx...they would probably want a young defenseman.


(This isn't a roster reconstruction, this is an organization reconstruction...we have 27 total free agents, not just 15...which makes this even more important.)

I don't know what proper market value for Adam Henrique might look like, but I'm 100% for moving Mitts to get a 2C, or a scoring RW.  I've soured on him.

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17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hextall built Philly from the ground up in the way Botterill promised to rebuild Buffalo. He did not do well with coaches.

He’s on my shortlist.

So you want to replace Jbot with another former player who came up in the management ranks who was fired after 3.5 years on the job because his team was stuck in neutral. 

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Hopefully a new regime will mean I won’t have to join you.

I can’t take another summer of watching poor @Thorny slowly steam himself into an empty pot waiting for a 2C as Jason turns free agent dollars into Wayne Simmonds, Josh Lievo and Luke Schenn in a bid to get heavier, then flips a mid-round pick for Kyle Turris, while he talks about the great progress made by Casey Mittelstadt in Rochester’s first-round loss to the Marlies.

Josh Lievo might imo be an actually decent add, but it would depend on the price. Similarly, if Simmonds has no offers and wants to sign for bottom dollars I'd keep him but that number starts with a 1, not a 2. 

This is an interesting topic for speculation/desire but is kind of pointless until we know about Jbot and our lottery spot. Only after that can you fill in meaningful ideas.

35 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hextall built Philly from the ground up in the way Botterill promised to rebuild Buffalo. He did not do well with coaches.

He’s on my shortlist.

Going to repost my dream. Dudley -director of hockey operations, Hextall - GM.

As per above Hextall did a really really good job fixing the cap and drafting. Their foundation is really strong right now and will continue that way unless they get greedy and sell off all the prospects trying to win it all too soon.

Hextall was fired for standing by his coach and for not wanting to call Hart up out of the minors too soon. That was all. Owner disagreed, it happens. Some owners move faster and more reactionary  than others.

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16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you want to replace Jbot with another former player who came up in the management ranks who was fired after 3.5 years on the job because his team was stuck in neutral. 

I have no problem with former players who came up the management ranks.

Our issue isn’t Jason Botterill’s CV, it’s his performance as GM.

As far as Hextall goes, his worst season in Philly is better than anything we’ve seen here in a decade and the team he assembled is looking pretty good at the moment. 

Not in love with him, but he’s worth a closer look.

Edited by dudacek

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My off season game plan is to drop spectrum cable and use Roku with Fubo and see how it goes ... 

giphy.gif

 

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6 hours ago, WildCard said:

None of it's gonna matter if we don't fire Botterill. In fact, it will be worse than not mattering, it will set us back even longer

Totally don’t agree here.  It won’t matter at all if the goaltenders are Ullmark AND Hutton

 

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2 hours ago, Weave said:

I don't know what proper market value for Adam Henrique might look like, but I'm 100% for moving Mitts to get a 2C, or a scoring RW.  I've soured on him.

He leads the Amerks in scoring since he was sent down in Late November.   
 

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2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you want to replace Jbot with another former player who came up in the management ranks who was fired after 3.5 years on the job because his team was stuck in neutral. 

Let’s just remember Philly was no where until they got a goalie.  
 

 

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5 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

He leads the Amerks in scoring since he was sent down in Late November.   
 

That may be, but 24 points in 35 games and a -12 in the AHL doesn't give me any hope that he will be a competent NHLer next year.

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2 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

That may be, but 24 points in 35 games and a -12 in the AHL doesn't give me any hope that he will be a competent NHLer next year.

A 21 year old leading an AHL team in scoring is actually pretty impressive.   

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26 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

He leads the Amerks in scoring since he was sent down in Late November.   
 

I'm aware.  Doesn't change my thoughts.

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16 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

A 21 year old leading an AHL team in scoring is actually pretty impressive.   

That is due more to a lack of point producers on the team than him being outstanding. A quick check puts him not even in the top 60 in ppg (I couldn't find the stat on a site, so I was looking at the top scorers and roughly checking, stopped after I got to the 65th top scorers)

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6 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

That is due more to a lack of point producers on the team than him being outstanding. A quick check puts him not even in the top 60 in ppg (I couldn't find the stat on a site, so I was looking at the top scorers and roughly checking, stopped after I got to the 65th top scorers)

Maybe he would put up more if they had a few more point producers?  

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1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

Let’s just remember Philly was no where until they got a goalie.  
 

 

Yep.  We have a decent goalie, but no Hart.  However Ullmark showed tonight that he is a fine goalie and IMHO a better goalie then Lehner.  Lehner would have let in 3 goals in the shoot out.  As I wrote earlier, we are a playoff team if Ullmark stays healthy.

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4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yep.  We have a decent goalie, but no Hart.  However Ullmark showed tonight that he is a fine goalie and IMHO a better goalie then Lehner.  Lehner would have let in 3 goals in the shoot out.  As I wrote earlier, we are a playoff team if Ullmark stays healthy.

How many games did Ullmark miss? It's highly unlikely we are a playoff team if he stays healthy.

We are 7 games out of it. He would have had to win 7 games above replacement in like a 17 games stretch. Not gonna happen. 

He probably would have played, what, 12-14 of those. Maybe he gains us a few more wins, that's likely, but not 7 more. 

Edited by Thorny
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1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yep.  We have a decent goalie, but no Hart.  However Ullmark showed tonight that he is a fine goalie and IMHO a better goalie then Lehner.  Lehner would have let in 3 goals in the shoot out.  As I wrote earlier, we are a playoff team if Ullmark stays healthy.

I agree. Not sure if they are a playoff team but they are definitely in the race  

I know everyone wants to blame JB but Hutton is the real reason this season is down the tubes 

I wouldn’t mind Lehrer back next year lol 

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2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

How many games did Ullmark miss? It's highly unlikely we are a playoff team if he stays healthy.

A lot of the top goalies in the league have over 50 games already.   Ullmark started his 34th tonight.   This 16/17 games are a big reason they are so far out 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

A lot of the top goalies in the league have over 50 games already.   Ullmark started his 34th tonight.   This 16/17 games are a big reason they are so far out 

 

 

So he probably plays an extra 14 or so. He's not SO much of a difference maker that he's giving us a 7 WAR there. That's basically impossible. 

Lundqvist lead the league in goalie WAR from 2005-2015 and he had a 29.11 WAR in that time. 

Ullmark accumulating 7 over a short stretch is very unlikely. 

Edited by Thorny

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I believe that the Sabres went 7-10-1 in the 18 games without Ulmark.  With Ullmark in net for say 14 of the 18, maybe the Sabres go 11-6-1 instead.  Hutton went 1-5 in his last 6 starts all on the road, including a 6 goal against performance at Ottawa.  While an 8 point difference doesn't put us in a playoff spot, it would put us tied with Florida only 3 points behind Toronto for 3rd in the Atlantic. 

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2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:I believe that the Sabres went 7-10-1 in the 18 games without Ulmark.  With Ullmark in net for say 14 of the 18, maybe the Sabres go 11-6-1 instead.  Hutton went 1-5 in his last 6 starts all on the road, including a 6 goal against performance at Ottawa.  While an 8 point difference doesn't put us in a playoff spot, it would put us tied with Florida only 3 points behind Toronto for 3rd in the Atlantic. 

Ullmark won 6 of his 15 starts before tonight, going back to our swoon in December. Why would he have gone something like 10-3-1 in those 14 games?

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1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Ullmark won 6 of his 15 starts before tonight, going back to our swoon in December. Why would he have gone something like 10-3-1 in those 14 games?

Hutton went 6-7 and 1-5 in his last 6.  Ullmark went 5-3 in Jan and was playing his best hockey of the season.  If he had continued that trend, that's about 9-5 over the next 14 starts.  That's 3 extra wins and maybe Hutton goes 2-2 instead of Johansson's 1-3.  

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27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Hutton went 6-7 and 1-5 in his last 6.  Ullmark went 5-3 in Jan and was playing his best hockey of the season.  If he had continued that trend, that's about 9-5 over the next 14 starts.  That's 3 extra wins and maybe Hutton goes 2-2 instead of Johansson's 1-3.  

But a slightly longer stretch gives him 6-11. Being arbitrary because you want to give the Sabres as many wins as possible is not a compelling argument in support of this team 

They would be in a very similar spot had Ullmark not been hurt, if I'm seeing correctly they were 1 game above .500 before, and are 1 game below it now 

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11 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

But a slightly longer stretch gives him 6-11. Being arbitrary because you want to give the Sabres as many wins as possible is not a compelling argument in support of this team 

They would be in a very similar spot had Ullmark not been hurt, if I'm seeing correctly they were 1 game above .500 before, and are 1 game below it now 

Your doing the same thing.  Your using his and the team's worst stretch to justify saying we wouldn't be better.  Using his entire season's work would have netted us 4 additional points over Hutton. I was simply utilizing his and the team's most recent form to work with and using an incomplete team that was missing their 2 best scores (Skinner and VO) for most of the month. Despite the injuries, Jan was a good stretch but certainly not their best.  Instead you insist on using the worst stretch of the season to justify a negative result despite the team being healthier now and with the good additions of Hakun and Simmonds.  I think it's far more likely that Ullmark would have thrived with his confidence at a high and a better team in front of him.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

  As I wrote earlier, we are a playoff team if Ullmark stays healthy.

bit of a stretch I think. Definitely worth a few more wins but enough to be in the playoffs? doubtful.

In this league you need a good back up as well as a good starter. Goalies who can play 80% or so of your games are few and far between. They burn out and get hurt. We really could use someone better than Hutton to go along with Ullmark.

Now if Skinner scores 30+ , Jack stays healthy and Ullmark stays healthy, maybe then I'd agree with you on that playoffs idea.But not just Ullmark. 

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