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Sabres sign Andrew Oglevie to ELC


Brawndo

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I saw a chubby 20’s something dude in the convenience store at the intersection of rte 63 and 20 tonight. He was wearing a Notre Dame hockey jacket and I thought “no way that’s the kid”.

You think that sometimes and then you’re wrong and feel foolish. I’ll googled when I got home.

Sure.

Could’ve googled then and there but my indifference was amplified by my fatigue.

 

Not him.

 

Sorry to waste your time.

COULD you have googled it there? Does cell service travel back in time to that neck of the woods?
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Well, this new guy’s outlier year was when he was a scrawny underclassman. He got stronger, and became a PPG+ player in the Big Ten and Hockey East.

 

Also: I’m going off the standard coefficient (?) predictor for his projected value—not off of any comparable players. The coefficient is about .35. That’d project him into the 30-point range, maybe with upside?

 

That scrawny freshman year, he was still probably right around the average age of an NCAA player.  I'm not so crazy about direct comparisons between that list of players because they're all very different.  That's the same reason why I'm not crazy about this conversion factor for point prediction.  One single number attached to every single player, it's incredibly crude.  Physics is usually the guy who throws them out all the time, right?  What exactly is it predicting, point totals from day one or something further down the line in the player's career?

 

I'm not trying to tear apart this signing though, I like when they go this route.  These older guys are going to be a bit more developed at day one and can probably perform in a fill in role fairly quickly.  They're usually a bit closer to their ceiling already though.  It still feels odd to me to call someone who is only 23 old, but that's how things are today when talking about guys starting their first pro season.  With these types of players, I'd say that reasonable hopes are for a 3rd-4th line guy.  Now if you want to talk reasonable expectations, I'd have to aim lower than that.

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