Prediction time: Who will be the next Sabre to be shipped out?

[GASabresIUFAN]

. And you left out McNabb who seems to be playing better in Vegas Agree with all the above, though granted expected some trades, the Lehner deal to me was the biggest unecessary give away.

I didn’t leave out McNabb because we can’t trade the nothing we have to show for him. We already turned one piece of that terrible trade into Zach Redmond and Fasching has zero value. But you are right about one thing. It might be nice to still have him here playing 18 minutes a night like he does for LV. I know some on this board feel he is a waste of space, but strangly enough he played a big role for Cup winning teams and just recently re-signed with LV for 4 more years. I guess the people here just simply know more. Someone here even said Falk, who isn’t good enough to take a regular shift on the worst team in the NHL, is better then McNabb.

 

Also the Lehner trade was stupid then and worse now. The funny thing is that Lehner is actually a healthier and better goalie now then when we acquired him, but his value is substantially less.

Edited December 5, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

That is a bunch of BS. The players dumped isn't the issue. It's the depth destroyed by letting go all the prospects and picks. In addition, Armia is a decent bottom 6 forward which we don't have. Also Zadorov is playing decent hockey for the Avs. I think he has 400% more goals then our entire blue line. Compher is a solid NHLer already and look great on Jack's wing . Lemieux, White, Roslovic are all on the verge of being NHL players. Roy is just starting as a pro. Also who knows if we would have drafted White, Roslovic and Roy. Regardless, how much better would our organization look with that much talented stockpiled? We likely have a better NHL team and we'd be in a better position to make changes as we'd have more cap space and a better idea of what are needs are.

 

Now all we have is a group of highly paid vets in their "prime" who are playing us into 31st. Asset and cap management are the keys to the rebuild and these trades to get these "stars" destroyed both.

 

Also the point of my post isn't what happened in the past, but asking, since we are now rebuilding the rebuild, if we are going to recover similar assets to what we gave up if we trade these players now. I doubt it. In fact I doubt we get back a third of what we gave up.

 

Well, I agree that it would be nice to have a bunch of potentially good prospects in the system right now.  I just think that those trades were and remain defensible -- even the Lehner trade, which I think has busted -- and that those trades are not where the franchise went astray.  The team's problems, IMHO, stem from:

 

- the tank

- poor drafting

- giving big contracts to underperforming vets (primarily Moulson, KO and Gorges)

- mediocre goaltending

- failure to bring in good leaders

[GASabresIUFAN]

Well, I agree that it would be nice to have a bunch of potentially good prospects in the system right now.  I just think that those trades were and remain defensible -- even the Lehner trade, which I think has busted -- and that those trades are not where the franchise went astray.  The team's problems, IMHO, stem from:

 

- the tank

- poor drafting

- giving big contracts to underperforming vets (primarily Moulson, KO and Gorges)

- mediocre goaltending

- failure to bring in good leaders

You are ignoring the big contracts acquired in those deals, especially Bogo and ROR. Kane/Bogo add almost 11 mill to our cap hit. Lehner 4 mill and ROR 7.5. Don’t forget it was TM who re-signed ROR to his current huge contract. Besides Kane, who is earning his money, the rest are just as big a problem if not more then KO or Gorges. At least Gorges is gone after this season. These 7 vets (young and old) take up 37.5 mill of our cap. Other then Kane, who is an UFA, who has delivered anything close to the value of their deal? Lehner last season. KO before the injury.

 

The funny thing is that these 4 major trade acquisitions were all in some respects damaged goods when acquired. Kane’s injury history and off the ice antics are well documented and was injured when acquired. Bogo also had a long history of injuries, missing on average 18 games per season in the 4 + season before the trade (including 20 games in the season he was traded to us). ROR’s fights with Avs management are also well documented plus he was known for off ice issues as well (which manifested here in the crash through Tim Hortons). Lehner was also recovering from a major concussion when acquired. So not only did TM over pay and waste assets, he also brought us injuried players, players with bad attitudes or both. Is it any wonder they failed. You complain about lack of leadership, but the leadership is supposed to come from these types of vets and it did. It lead us right to where we are today.

[nfreeman]

You are ignoring the big contracts acquired in those deals, especially Bogo and ROR. Kane/Bogo add almost 11 mill to our cap hit. Lehner 4 mill and ROR 7.5. Don’t forget it was TM who re-signed ROR to his current huge contract. Besides Kane, who is earning his money, the rest are just as big a problem if not more then KO or Gorges. At least Gorges is gone after this season. These 7 vets (young and old) take up 37.5 mill of our cap. Other then Kane, who is an UFA, who has delivered anything close to the value of their deal? Lehner last season. KO before the injury.

 

The funny thing is that these 4 major trade acquisitions were all in some respects damaged goods when acquired. Kane’s injury history and off the ice antics are well documented and was injured when acquired. Bogo also had a long history of injuries, missing on average 18 games per season in the 4 + season before the trade (including 20 games in the season he was traded to us). ROR’s fights with Avs management are also well documented plus he was known for off ice issues as well (which manifested here in the crash through Tim Hortons). Lehner was also recovering from a major concussion when acquired. So not only did TM over pay and waste assets, he also brought us injuried players, players with bad attitudes or both. Is it any wonder they failed. You complain about lack of leadership, but the leadership is supposed to come from these types of vets and it did. It lead us right to where we are today.

 

Your first paragraph is classic #Hammymath.  We were discussing the trades that brought in Lehner, Kane, Bogo and ROR.  You omitted the salaries the Sabres parted with in bringing in those guys (in particular, Myers and Stafford, who come close to netting out Kane and Bogo).  You also included a bunch of other guys in your $37.5MM, including a few whom I included in my "giving big contracts to underperforming vets" point.

 

You make some good points in your 2nd paragraph -- but it's important to remember that those issues were the reasons those players were available to begin with.

 

Bottom line, IMHO, is that as I said above, while you are right that those trades haven't delivered what GMTM was hoping for, none of them has really crashed and burned, and those trades are not the reason the Sabres are where they are.

[GASabresIUFAN]

By the way the coming roster purge is going to be this season and next. Jbot can purge most of the roster by simply letting contracts expire. Only 6 players, Jack, KO, ROR, Risto, Scandella and Bogo have contracts that extend beyond 2018-19. 7 guys, Baloo, Moulson, McCabe, Pommers, ERod, Larsson and Z, have deals that expire after next season, only Pommers and Moulson’s deals are significant cap wise and Moulson has already been waived.

 

This means that 11 current roster players are FAs at seasons end.

RFAs: Lehner, Reinhart, Wilson, Antipin

UFAs: Johnson, Kane, Pouliot, Falk, Josefson, Gorges and Nolan

 

Key Minor league RFAs Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Smith.

 

There is no hurry to move any of the RFAs. Reinhart’s and Lehner’s greatest value may be in the off-season then now. Of the UFAs only Kane has real value. Pouliot may have some, but he actually maybe a guy Jbot wants to keep for another year or two.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Well, I agree that it would be nice to have a bunch of potentially good prospects in the system right now.  I just think that those trades were and remain defensible -- even the Lehner trade, which I think has busted -- and that those trades are not where the franchise went astray.  The team's problems, IMHO, stem from:

 

- the tank

- poor drafting

- giving big contracts to underperforming vets (primarily Moulson, KO and Gorges)

- mediocre goaltending

- failure to bring in good leaders

 

I believe you have those 5 items listed in order of worst disaster first.

 

Did the Sabres give Gorges a contract, or just take on his existing one?  I can't remember ... I'm old.

[Drunkard]

I believe you have those 5 items listed in order of worst disaster first.

 

Did the Sabres give Gorges a contract, or just take on his existing one?  I can't remember ... I'm old.

 

Gorges is still on the contract he signed with Montreal.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Your first paragraph is classic #Hammymath. We were discussing the trades that brought in Lehner, Kane, Bogo and ROR. You omitted the salaries the Sabres parted with in bringing in those guys (in particular, Myers and Stafford, who come close to netting out Kane and Bogo). You also included a bunch of other guys in your $37.5MM, including a few whom I included in my "giving big contracts to underperforming vets" point.

 

You make some good points in your 2nd paragraph -- but it's important to remember that those issues were the reasons those players were available to begin with.

 

Bottom line, IMHO, is that as I said above, while you are right that those trades haven't delivered what GMTM was hoping for, none of them has really crashed and burned, and those trades are not the reason the Sabres are where they are.

Who is doing Hammermath now. Stafford was a UFA when traded. Myers deal is a year shorter and he has managed to stay somewhat healthy and reasonably productive. We can’t say that for Bogo. We are also talking about our current cap structure and the unproductive assets that are here that Jbot has to get rid of. You say that KO, Gorges and Moulson have more to do with the issues of this team then the three big trades. I’m sorry that doesn’t make sense. Only KO was supposed to a be a core asset and we paid nothing but money to get him. Moulson and Gorges were only bridge players through the rebuild and both will be gone at season’s. Total cost of assets to acquire both was a 2nd rd pick for Gorges and at least we got two decent years out of him.

 

However the big trades are supposed to be the core of this team with Jack, Sam, and Risto. Lehner was supposed to be the goalie of the future. Bogo was supposed to be Myers’ replacement and play a top 4 role for the length of his contract. Kane and ROR were supposed to be top 6 forwards and lead us back to the playoffs and they failed. TM mortgaged the future to win quickly both in terms of money and assets and it has officially blownup in our faces. These deals are the core of the problem.

 

You listed 5 things you contributed to the franchise being were it is.

1) the tank: however, the trading of assets like Pommers and Miller to tank got us the assets TM used to draft Jack and Sam acquire ROR, Kane, Bogo and Lehner.

2) poor drafting: i tend to agree that has been a huge problem, but the more picks you have the odds are generally begin to work for you. To TM’s credit he found Pu, Asplund and Guhle. Also the 2 1sts he traded away in 2015 were in a very deep 1st rd in which almost all the bottom 10 in that round look like they are going to be productive NHL players. This more then anything has contributed to our lack of depth. I wonder if we would be saying we don’t draft well, if Zadarov and Compher were in our lineup with guys like Lemiuex, White, Roy and Roslovic playing in Rochester to go with Bailey, Baptiste, Nylander, Mittelstud,Asplund and Pu.

3) underperforming big contracts: why does it matter whether you acquire a big contract in trade or through FAs? (or in ROR’s case both). If they underperform those contracts significantly, the team crashes and burns. This all goes back to TM’s lack of cap management skills. We can lump in Franson, Pysyk for Kulikov as well.

4) mediocre goaltending: a problem for sure, but worse when you sacrificed key assets to get it. TM acquired decent goaltending for value prices; see the Neuvirth and Halak deals, but instead wasted a key 1st rd pick to get his guy, Lehner.

5) bringing in good leaders: Gorges, Moulson, Gionta, ROR, and KO, were all supposed to bring leadership and experience to shepard the kids. I do find it interesting that the team has regressed without Gionta as has the 3rd line production. However, there are very few Mike Griers and Drurys. Jbot is going to have to find someone, but at this point it’s more about cutting out the cancer in the locker room. However it would be nice to actually have more kids to tutor beside Jack, Sam and Risto.

 

Ultimately TM’s vision for the franchise really failed and now we are paying the price.

Edited December 5, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

I believe you have those 5 items listed in order of worst disaster first.

 

Did the Sabres give Gorges a contract, or just take on his existing one?  I can't remember ... I'm old.

 

Well, if I were going to list them in order, it would be:

 

- the tank

- poor drafting

- failure to bring in good leaders

- mediocre goaltending

- giving big contracts to underperforming vets (primarily Moulson, KO and Gorges)

 

And as Drunkard points out, they didn't give Gorges his deal -- although they kinda did, since GMTM actively pursued Gorges pretty early on in his deal.

 

 

Who is doing Hammermath now. Stafford was a UFA when traded. Myers deal is a year shorter and he has managed to stay somewhat healthy and reasonably productive. We can’t say that for Bogo. We are also talking about our current cap structure and the unproductive assets that are here that Jbot has to get rid of. You say that KO, Gorges and Moulson have more to do with the issues of this team then the three big trades. I’m sorry that doesn’t make sense. Only KO was supposed to a be a core asset and we paid nothing but money to get him. Moulson and Gorges were only bridge players through the rebuild and both will be gone at season’s. Total cost of assets to acquire both was a 2nd rd pick for Gorges and at least we got two decent years out of him.

 

However the big trades are supposed to be the core of this team with Jack, Sam, and Risto. Lehner was supposed to be the goalie of the future. Bogo was supposed to be Myers’ replacement and play a top 4 role for the length of his contract. Kane and ROR were supposed to be top 6 forwards and lead us back to the playoffs and they failed. TM mortgaged the future to win quickly both in terms of money and assets and it has officially blownup in our faces. These deals are the core of the problem.

 

Moulson has been an albatross pretty much since they signed him.  He has another year on his deal (as you yourself posted a few minutes ago). 

 

More importantly, "paying nothing but money" for KO overlooks the key issue:  your top-paid guys can't be completely ineffective.  That sets a terrible tone to the team.

 

Of the guys they traded for, none has played as poorly as Moulson and KO have (I recognize that some might disagree as to Bogo, but he was a 2ndary piece in that deal -- more of part of the price GMTM had to pay to get Kane -- and injuries aren't the same as poor play).  Kane has played well, ROR has mostly played well but provided zero leadership and Lehner has been mediocre but not terrible like Moulson (every day) and KO (this year).

 

I agree that the guys they traded for were supposed to be part of the core, and that they have failed to deliver.  But that's not the same as "mortgaging the future" or "blowing up in their face."  The Sabres still had a ton of picks and prospects after making the trades, and those guys -- Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching, plus Cornel, Karabacek, Hurley, Johanssen, Martin, Kea, Catenacci, Girgensons, Leduc, Sundher, MacKenzie -- who are all 2nd- or 3rd-round picks (plus Zemgus in the 1st round) since 2010 -- have done zero.

 

IMHO, they committed suicide with the tank, shoveled dirt on the grave with poor drafting, then cemented it over by not bringing in good leadership or good goaltending.

 

As always, YMMV.

[LGR4GM]

It all comes back to drafting

[R_Dudley]

By the way the coming roster purge is going to be this season and next. Jbot can purge most of the roster by simply letting contracts expire. Only 6 players, Jack, KO, ROR, Risto, Scandella and Bogo have contracts that extend beyond 2018-19. 7 guys, Baloo, Moulson, McCabe, Pommers, ERod, Larsson and Z, have deals that expire after next season, only Pommers and Moulson’s deals are significant cap wise and Moulson has already been waived.

 

This means that 11 current roster players are FAs at seasons end.

RFAs: Lehner, Reinhart, Wilson, Antipin

UFAs: Johnson, Kane, Pouliot, Falk, Josefson, Gorges and Nolan

 

Key Minor league RFAs Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Smith.

 

There is no hurry to move any of the RFAs. Reinhart’s and Lehner’s greatest value may be in the off-season then now. Of the UFAs only Kane has real value. Pouliot may have some, but he actually maybe a guy Jbot wants to keep for another year or two.

Based on this teams performance Jbot has his work cut out for him. 

 

I didn't realize there was that many potential openings and I would not at all be surprised to see him turn almost everyone of those over. 

 

At least we have that to look forward too.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Freeman, what is worse paying top $ for a guy who doesn’t perform in salary or paying top $ for a guy who doesn’t perform in both salary and assets used to acquire him. I think the second is far worse. Not only do you have an albatross contract, but you also don’t have the future players to rebuild the franchise when they fail.

 

I also disagree on Okposo. I agree it’s a bad deal long-term because of KO’s age, but KO gave us decent value relative to his contract last season and now that he seems healthy he has been playing recently back to previous form. He isn’t the problem.

 

Bogo is the biggest Albatross contract on this team by far. 2 years left at 5.14 per season after this season.

 

People need to stop looking at these deals in isolation. Just because we got the best player in the deal doesn’t mean the deal was in the best interest of the franchise when it was made or in the lomg-term. As I’ve said before, all these deals were premature relative to the stage of the rebuild of the franchise. We have to look at opportunity cost.

 

For example. Lehner. He had we kept Neuvirth or Halak, the result would have been much the same and we’d still have that 1st rd pick.

It all comes back to drafting

Yes it does. Hard to draft well when you trade away top 60 picks.

[nfreeman]

Freeman, what is worse paying top $ for a guy who doesn’t perform in salary or paying top $ for a guy who doesn’t perform in both salary and assets used to acquire him. I think the second is far worse. Not only do you have an albatross contract, but you also don’t have the future players to rebuild the franchise when they fail.

 

I also disagree on Okposo. I agree it’s a bad deal long-term because of KO’s age, but KO gave us decent value relative to his contract last season and now that he seems healthy he has been playing recently back to previous form. He isn’t the problem.

 

Bogo is the biggest Albatross contract on this team by far. 2 years left at 5.14 per season after this season.

 

People need to stop looking at these deals in isolation. Just because we got the best player in the deal doesn’t mean the deal was in the best interest of the franchise when it was made or in the lomg-term. As I’ve said before, all these deals were premature relative to the stage of the rebuild of the franchise. We have to look at opportunity cost.

 

For example. Lehner. He had we kept Neuvirth or Halak, the result would have been much the same and we’d still have that 1st rd pick.

 

 

Your question doesn't work, because it lumps a bunch of players together in the "didn't perform" description.  No one with functioning eyes would say that ROR or Lehner have been as bad as Moulson and KO.

 

KO may be slightly less corpse-like than he was at the beginning of the season, but he has 1 goal in his last 9 games and 15 shots in his last 7 games.  He's nowhere close to the player they thought they were getting.

 

The statement that Bogo's contract -- with 2 more years at $5.1MM -- is more of an albatross than KO's -- with 5 more years at $6MM -- is insane.

 

You are right that in retrospect the Sabres would've been better off not trading for Lehner and finding a goalie elsewhere.  Not all trades work out.  If Lehner had lived up to his potential (which he still might, btw, although it almost certainly won't be with the Sabres), it would've been well worth the 21st pick in the 1st round, which usually doesn't yield an impact player.  Moreover, the Sabres would've been substantially better off only if they had found a much better goalie elsewhere or if the 1st-round pick had turned into a good player -- both of which are something like 20% probabilities.

[GASabresIUFAN]

by the way, KO has a no movement clause.  He isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  Also he has 10 pts in his last 17 games.  That's a 48 pt pace.  Not exactly corpse like.

 

 

Now as to who's next?

 

There are really only 3 options to make a larger deal (Kane, Reino and Lehner).  Johnson also in a smaller transaction.  However any deal involving Johnson or Lehner would have to include a goalie coming back because I doubt Jbot is bringing up Ullmark.

 

As to smaller deals, I can see any of a number of guys getting traded, especially those with cheap contracts and decent pedigrees like Larsson or Girgensons.  Pouliot looks more like a deadline type deal.

 

If I had to guess?  Lehner is next to go.  With Murray in Pitt out indefinitely and Niemi stinking up the joint, given Jbot's intimate knowledge of the Pens organization, could he work a deal with the Pens for either Johnson or Lehner?  

Edited December 7, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[bunomatic]

by the way, KO has a no movement clause.  He isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  Also he has 10 pts in his last 17 games.  That's a 48 pt pace.  Not exactly corpse like.

 

 

Now as to who's next?

 

There are really only 3 options to make a larger deal (Kane, Reino and Lehner).  Johnson also in a smaller transaction.  However any deal involving Johnson or Lehner would have to include a goalie coming back because I doubt Jbot is bringing up Ullmark.

 

As to smaller deals, I can see any of a number of guys getting traded, especially those with cheap contracts and decent pedigrees like Larsson or Girgensons.  Pouliot looks more like a deadline type deal.

 

If I had to guess?  Lehner is next to go.  With Murray in Pitt out indefinitely and Niemi stinking up the joint, given Jbot's intimate knowledge of the Pens organization, could he work a deal with the Pens for either Johnson or Lehner?  

I read that in  an article yesterday . The part about Lehner or Johnson possibly to Pittsburgh. That sounds plausible.

Edited December 7, 2017 by bunomatic

[nfreeman]

by the way, KO has a no movement clause.  He isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.  Also he has 10 pts in his last 17 games.  That's a 48 pt pace.  Not exactly corpse like.

 

 

Now as to who's next?

 

There are really only 3 options to make a larger deal (Kane, Reino and Lehner).  Johnson also in a smaller transaction.  However any deal involving Johnson or Lehner would have to include a goalie coming back because I doubt Jbot is bringing up Ullmark.

 

As to smaller deals, I can see any of a number of guys getting traded, especially those with cheap contracts and decent pedigrees like Larsson or Girgensons.  Pouliot looks more like a deadline type deal.

 

If I had to guess?  Lehner is next to go.  With Murray in Pitt out indefinitely and Niemi stinking up the joint, given Jbot's intimate knowledge of the Pens organization, could he work a deal with the Pens for either Johnson or Lehner?  

 

KO has 1 goal in his last 12 games.  For a scoring winger that is highly corpse-like.

 

He's not going anywhere, but it's because no one is going to take that contract -- not because of his NMC.  Why would he not want to move to a better team?

 

As for your 3 options for a larger deal, I agree that Kane and Reino are possibilities, but I would also include ROR, Risto and McCabe, and I would exclude Lehner, because while I agree that he could easily be traded, I don't think anyone would give them anything substantial for him -- maybe a 2nd-tier defenseman prospect as someone suggested upthread, or perhaps a 3rd- or 4th-round pick.  I think Pittsburgh is a good guess for the reasons you mentioned.

[WildCard]

KO isn't really a scoring winger. It's still pathetic though

[Drunkard]

KO isn't really a scoring winger. It's still pathetic though

 

He's certainly paid to be one though. Murray really screwed us with the Moulson contract. We can only hope Okposo's doesn't end up even worse (1 year longer for $1 million more per year of cap hit but at least he was only 28 when it started where Moulson was already 31). That will completely depend on how he plays for the remainder of his contract though.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Alkoholist