The delusion fan provocation thread

[Fidelio]

You know what else is overrated? 21st overall draft picks.  Look at the selections from the last 15 years.  Coin toss is being charitable.  That pick was the definition of a gamble.  We got a known commodity (an average goaltender no less, so you can sleep easy) for a pick with less than a 50/50 chance of developing into an NHL player.  I don't get the angst.

The angst is related to the concept of value and nothing more.

Goaltenders, in the modern NHL, do not command the same value that they once did.

Especially goaltenders with .905 SV percentage in their last year who are demoted to 3rd string.

Not all drafts are equal and even if the odds are less than 50%, guys like getzlaf, perry, seabrook, oreilly etc were all drafted in the middle/late first / early second and I'd take those odds over Bryan Murrays Sloppy thirds any day.

[I am Defecting]

You're back!

 

Nice.

 

You must have a job.

 

THIS ONE'S GOT A JOB SPNDNCHZ!

 

(he's a keeper)

[deluca67]

I agree with most of what you said, other than Edmonton. IMHO, Edmonton isn't where they are because they keep drafting skill players, they're where they are because they keep drafting the exact same skill player. They really need to trade one or two of their top-skill guys for skilled, gritty, scoring forwards.and skilled D.

This is exactly why I think the Oilers will regret picking McDavid over Eichel. 

[dudacek]

Like it or lump it, the vast majority of Murray's core is already here: Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly, Kane, Girgensons, Ristolainen, Bogosian and Lehner.

 

Not all of them will be what we hope they will be.

Others further down the depth chart might surprise by becoming a key part.

We may get lucky on a Patrick Sharp for Mat Ellison deal, or a draft pick that surprises.

And secondary pieces will surely be moved and molded around them.

 

But what you see above is fruits of the tank. This is what we suffered for.

Murray has emptied his bullets.

We live and die on his faith in these players.

Edited August 8, 2015 by dudacek

[deluca67]

Like it or lump it, the vast majority of Murray's core is already here: Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly, Kane, Girgensons, Ristolainen, Bogosian and Lehner.

 

Not all of them will be what we hope they will be.

Others further down the depth chart might surprise by becoming a key part.

We may get lucky on a Patrick Sharp for Mat Ellison deal, or a draft pick that surprises.

And secondary pieces will surely be moved and molded around them.

 

But what you see above is fruits of the tank. This is what we suffered for.

Murray has emptied his bullets.

We live and die on his faith in these players.

 

I don't agree with this. This seems more like a Regierian approach and is not consistent with what I have seen/heard from Murray to date. IMO, Tim Murray gets it. I believe that Murray knows that his roster is a living entity and will always be in a state of flux. As opportunities arise to improve the roster I feel Murray would not hesitate to pull the trigger on any deal if he feels it advances the team towards the final goal of winning a Stanley Cup.  

[Fidelio]

This is exactly why I think the Oilers will regret picking McDavid over Eichel.

my good sir. I must politely disagree. Mcdavid is not RNH, Hall or Shitipov. They were all complimentary players who just happened to be taken 1st overall in (relatively) weak draft classes. I understand your train of thought, Toews won more cups than Crosby, hes a more complete

Player, Eichel = Toews... But Toews benefited from a far superior cast of talent and crosby was maligned by oft injured defensemen (talbot chief among them) and a GM who drafted as well as anton forsberg made saves. Toews often had Hossa, Kane etc on his wing, while crosby had Kunitz, Mr. "This team aint big enough for the both of us" Enigma Malkin. If mcdavid can stay healthy, he will elevate the oilers another level, is a wizard on the ice. Bottom six forwards are a dime a dozen and can be found at most every trade deadline for quality value as teams plunging into the tank jettison their best role players for 3rd and 4th round draft picks (pittance). Their top six is solid, have some nice d prospects in Nurse and Reinhart, and can surely mortgage some more liquid assets for that last remaining D slot, wherever it falls.

 

On the contrary, i think the Oilers will honor the day that damn ball operator skewed randominity (not really) with his stupid human error and awarded the embattled franchise with their 4th top pick in 6 years (still makes me sick). I mean, just recall Tim Murray's reaction... Says it all.

Edited August 8, 2015 by Tank4Matthews16

[LGR4GM]

The difference between MDavid and Eichel so far is that McDavid will try and go around you, Eichel will try and go through you.

[deluca67]

my good sir. I must politely disagree. Mcdavid is not RNH, Hall or Shitipov. They were all complimentary players who just happened to be taken 1st overall in (relatively) weak draft classes. I understand your train of thought, Toews won more cups than Crosby, hes a more complete

Player, Eichel = Toews... But Toews benefited from a far superior cast of talent and crosby was maligned by oft injured defensemen (talbot chief among them) and a GM who drafted as well as anton forsberg made saves. Toews often had Hossa, Kane etc on his wing, while crosby had Kunitz, Mr. "This team aint big enough for the both of us" Enigma Malkin. If mcdavid can stay healthy, he will elevate the oilers another level, is a wizard on the ice. Bottom six forwards are a dime a dozen and can be found at most every trade deadline for quality value as teams plunging into the tank jettison their best role players for 3rd and 4th round draft picks (pittance). Their top six is solid, have some nice d prospects in Nurse and Reinhart, and can surely mortgage some more liquid assets for that last remaining D slot, wherever it falls.

 

On the contrary, i think the Oilers will honor the day that damn ball operator skewed randominity (not really) with his stupid human error and awarded the embattled franchise with their 4th top pick in 6 years (still makes me sick). I mean, just recall Tim Murray's reaction... Says it all.

First I would like to say that Tim Murray doesn't like to lose at anything and losing the lottery two years in a row may be the reason for his reaction.

 

Secondly, the Oilers have a ton of talent. But as we have witnessed here with the Sabres, you can not win with talent without a balanced roster. The Oilers do have a ton of talent in their top six, there problem is that their top six is not difficult to play against. IMO, the Oilers would be a better team with Eichel as apposed to McDavid. I am glad the Sabres ended up with the second pick, I believe Eichel expedites the Sabres turn around faster if they were to have McDavid. I'm not saying McDavid will be a bust, I am sure he will have a very productive NHL career. For me it's about which player fits into a roster and creates that balance. The Sabres have balance in their top six with Eichel and Kane. The Oilers do not have that balance.  

[Fidelio]

Agree that TM doesn't like to lose anything , but he definitely wanted Mcdavid.  

 

Don't think the Sabres ever had the kind of talent necessary to be a perennial contender (not since 70's at least). 

 

The Oilers have certainly had an imbalanced mishmash of talent but in some part, at least for the last 2 seasons, I believe it was by design. 

During that time they didnt make any substantial moves to address the the defense or goaltending outside of the draft until, POOF... they land mcdavid, hire a new GM, and go crazy at the 2015 draft (drafted 1st and then not until 4th round).  Time will tell who will be a better team and for what reason but I would be willing to bet Edmonton rises faster.

As far as the notion that the Oilers top 6 weren't difficult to play against.... I think other teams facing off against Nugent Hopkins, Hall and Eberle would beg to differ (when hall was healthy).  I believe Murray's constant conveying of a build toward "truculence" and "being hard to play against" was a euphemism to couch his intentions with the tank.   The reality is that they iced a team full of 4th liners (of course its difficult to play against a bunch of nasty grit with nothing to lose) and Murray was responsible.  As the Sabres begin to rise from the ashes, he uses "difficult to play against" in its ambiguous glory, as in "more difficult to play against because their big and skilled".  If he drafted Mcdavid he would say the same thing.  

 

Actually, I am also glad that the Sabres ended up with Eichel... I have had my heart set on him for 2 years, he's and American, and seemingly more representative of the Buffalo swagger.  I don't believe however, that he expedites the rebuild faster than Mcdavid would.  There is a reason why scouts who spend their entire lives watching kids play hockey drew significant and universal distinctions between the two, because Mcdavid is better. Now I'm not saying that he makes Edmonton the better team necessarily (I'm clearly hoping against it),  but the kids got mad skills.  

 

I couldn't agree more with you on the importance of a balanced roster; balance of skill, balance of physicality, balance of steady maturity and blind fire, balance of personality, balance in every arena. Chicago prides itself on balance, unity and brotherhood, they are a dynasty and in fact balance is also my motto in life (or at least what i strive for).  But I don't see how Eichel balances out the Sabres better.  Its not like they are so laden with skill  and bereft of power that Mcdavid would imbalance them.  You mention Kane as a reason for balance but Kane plays in the mold of a power forward, so does Eichel. 

 

Guess we can agree to disagree and converge on the fact that this year will be fun regardless of how it unfolds; I'm just hoping it happens slowly.

[Neo]

Kane obviously has brilliant physical tools. Watching him at ice level really gives you a sense of just how powerful a skater he is.  However, he has yet to pull together a full season, maxed out at 57 points for his career (and that was 2011-2012), has scored more than 20 goals only once, and seems to be a maverick in the locker room (you only need to look at his twitter account for 10 seconds to get a whiff of what hes putting out).  People cite lack of star line mates as a reason for his mediocre production, but he isn't going to get a massive upgrade with Ennis and O'reilly, at least in terms of scoring.  Last year he was demoted to the third line and still produced (22 points in 37 games, -1), but HE WAS STILL DEMOTED TO THE THIRD LINE on a team that can hardly be considered a contender.  I appreciate optimism, Sabres fans deserve to enjoy a little.  But at best, the book is still out on Kane.  Lets see how he performs when he is expected to be a top scoring presence on a young team night in and night out.  

 

 

Grateful ..

[Fidelio]

It seems like Brendan Guhle is a LHD that Murray and Co. are very high on, perhaps he was the target all along, and they knew they could get him in round 2.

 

What your saying is true in a sense but its grounded in skewed logic.  Sure they might have wanted Guhle but 1.) there was no guarantee he fell to them at 51, 2.) that has nothing to do with ignoring tenants of trade value.  If they wanted him, use the pick at 21, draft a top forward prospect, take a swing at your empty top 4 d spot (which btw, is a position where draft status is much less correlated to level of success relative to forward) or even trade it for future picks to allow time to elapse and D to become available (say 2015 1st for teams 2016 1st and 3rd and take some salary). Don't lay the pick at the feet of your uncle before the draft even starts and get nothing in return. Don't set a lopsided precedent  (which wasn't even followed until Martin Jones,  he is a much more proven commodity, and the pick was in 2016 where the sharks could finish back in the playoffs) by giving more than 3 times what the going rate for a guy like Lehner is using draft pick value assignments.  Put it in perspective. What goaltender has been traded for a first round pick in recent memory?  What would you have thought if the Sabres got a first round pick in this draft for their 3rd stringer? Even for their #1 (Enroth)? You would have thought  we fleeced the other team, you would have been right, and thats exactly what happened to us. We got hosed.

[LGR4GM]

Right now, yes it looks like we lost the trade.  We will have to wait to see how it all pans out. If Lehner plays decent for us and the #21 pick never sees the NHL it was a good trade for us.  If the inverse happens Murray up.

[3putt]

Right now, yes it looks like we lost the trade.  We will have to wait to see how it all pans out. If Lehner plays decent for us and the #21 pick never sees the NHL it was a good trade for us.  If the inverse happens Murray ###### up.

Not from a trade value perspective, we lost.  Suppose you buy a racehorse from a sub tier lineage.  The value is pretty much determined at that time. If he winsnthe triple crown, you still overpaid at the time of purchase.  If you paid triple crown prices and the horse ended up doing kiddie rides at the fair you would feel foolish.  The value for Lehner or equivalent was far less than Murray paid. 

[LGR4GM]

[thewookie1]

Agree that TM doesn't like to lose anything , but he definitely wanted Mcdavid.

 

Don't think the Sabres ever had the kind of talent necessary to be a perennial contender (not since 70's at least).

 

The Oilers have certainly had an imbalanced mishmash of talent but in some part, at least for the last 2 seasons, I believe it was by design.

During that time they didnt make any substantial moves to address the the defense or goaltending outside of the draft until, POOF... they land mcdavid, hire a new GM, and go crazy at the 2015 draft (drafted 1st and then not until 4th round). Time will tell who will be a better team and for what reason but I would be willing to bet Edmonton rises faster.

As far as the notion that the Oilers top 6 weren't difficult to play against.... I think other teams facing off against Nugent Hopkins, Hall and Eberle would beg to differ (when hall was healthy). I believe Murray's constant conveying of a build toward "truculence" and "being hard to play against" was a euphemism to couch his intentions with the tank. The reality is that they iced a team full of 4th liners (of course its difficult to play against a bunch of nasty grit with nothing to lose) and Murray was responsible. As the Sabres begin to rise from the ashes, he uses "difficult to play against" in its ambiguous glory, as in "more difficult to play against because their big and skilled". If he drafted Mcdavid he would say the same thing.

 

Actually, I am also glad that the Sabres ended up with Eichel... I have had my heart set on him for 2 years, he's and American, and seemingly more representative of the Buffalo swagger. I don't believe however, that he expedites the rebuild faster than Mcdavid would. There is a reason why scouts who spend their entire lives watching kids play hockey drew significant and universal distinctions between the two, because Mcdavid is better. Now I'm not saying that he makes Edmonton the better team necessarily (I'm clearly hoping against it), but the kids got mad skills.

 

I couldn't agree more with you on the importance of a balanced roster; balance of skill, balance of physicality, balance of steady maturity and blind fire, balance of personality, balance in every arena. Chicago prides itself on balance, unity and brotherhood, they are a dynasty and in fact balance is also my motto in life (or at least what i strive for). But I don't see how Eichel balances out the Sabres better. Its not like they are so laden with skill and bereft of power that Mcdavid would imbalance them. You mention Kane as a reason for balance but Kane plays in the mold of a power forward, so does Eichel.

 

Guess we can agree to disagree and converge on the fact that this year will be fun regardless of how it unfolds; I'm just hoping it happens slowly.

Well said however I would say Edm's top 6 may end up with the same problem Pittsburgh has had for years now. I don't doubt their skill but I'd certainly question their ability to survive the playoffs.

 

So I'd say while Edm will likely have a faster point gain, I think Buffalo will more than likely make it to the playoffs slightly later and thrive. Edm also has the whole locker room problem and a badly raised core aside from McDavid. Hall and Eberle supposedly see themselves as vets while older truer vets say they really aren't seeing as they've never done anything team success wise.

 

Chicago/LA could beat up a high scoring Edm if they merely play for themselves or their friend. I'd rather have grittier 30 goal guys who will claw tooth and nail to win over purely 40 goal getters in the playoffs.

[dudacek]

Martin Jones (the available goalie most similar to Lehner) also went for a 1st-rounder, but that is mostly irrelevant.

The philosophy behind the Lehner deal is simple: identify what you want and pay the price to get it.

 

Murray identified Lehner — not Niemi, not Jones, not Lack, not Talbot — as the goalie he wanted.

He paid the price.

 

If Lehner fails as the team's starter, Murray made a mistake in judging his talent.

 

 

It's about building a team, not winning a trade.

[bunomatic]

What your saying is true in a sense but its grounded in skewed logic.  Sure they might have wanted Guhle but 1.) there was no guarantee he fell to them at 51, 2.) that has nothing to do with ignoring tenants of trade value.  If they wanted him, use the pick at 21, draft a top forward prospect, take a swing at your empty top 4 d spot (which btw, is a position where draft status is much less correlated to level of success relative to forward) or even trade it for future picks to allow time to elapse and D to become available (say 2015 1st for teams 2016 1st and 3rd and take some salary). Don't lay the pick at the feet of your uncle before the draft even starts and get nothing in return. Don't set a lopsided precedent  (which wasn't even followed until Martin Jones,  he is a much more proven commodity, and the pick was in 2016 where the sharks could finish back in the playoffs) by giving more than 3 times what the going rate for a guy like Lehner is using draft pick value assignments.  Put it in perspective. What goaltender has been traded for a first round pick in recent memory?  What would you have thought if the Sabres got a first round pick in this draft for their 3rd stringer? Even for their #1 (Enroth)? You would have thought  we fleeced the other team, you would have been right, and thats exactly what happened to us. We got hosed.

I think you meant tenets of trade value. Not hatin, just sayin. ;)

[Fidelio]

I think you meant tenets of trade value. Not hatin, just sayin. ;)

 DANG MON

[bunomatic]

 DANG MON

Not tryin to bust your balls. I actually had to look it up cause I thought for a moment maybe I had been saying it wrong in the past.lol Good posts by the way.

[Fidelio]

Not tryin to bust your balls. I actually had to look it up cause I thought for a moment maybe I had been saying it wrong in the past.lol Good posts by the way.

 

Thanks. Its cool lol I'm probably one of the worst spellerds on earth. Autocorrect: the great equalizer, replacing time.

[Thorny]

 

Martin Jones (the available goalie most similar to Lehner) also went for a 1st-rounder, but that is mostly irrelevant.

The philosophy behind the Lehner deal is simple: identify what you want and pay the price to get it.

 

Murray identified Lehner — not Niemi, not Jones, not Lack, not Talbot — as the goalie he wanted.

He paid the price.

 

If Lehner fails as the team's starter, Murray made a mistake in judging his talent.

 

 

It's about building a team, not winning a trade.

 

 

This. Also, you can't really compare Lehner to the guy drafted at 21, whoever that is. Who knows who Murray would have picked. If Lehner plays well for us, it was a good trade. If he doesn't, it wasn't a good trade. But the repercussions of such a mistake are well over-stated. I'll say it again, draft picks are way over-valued. This isn't the NFL where a first round pick at 21 overall is going to most likely play in the league, let alone step in immediately.

 

The statements about the trade still being poor value even if Lehner plays well, don't make any sense. Too much emphasis is put on "winning" a trade at the time it takes place, measuring perceived value against perceived value, prematurely determining who "won" and who got "fleeced". It's not about winning trades, it's about improving your team. If Lehner improves our team, it was a good trade. Darcy seemed to skew towards winning trades, GMTM has showed repeatedly he will pay the price in order to acquire what he wants in order to improve the team.

 

It is becoming abundantly clear that Tim Murray's work here will be best viewed at the macro level, and not in the micro. He is building the team he wants to build, and each trade is working in cohesion with the others. Let's wait and see the finished product.

[MattPie]

This. Also, you can't really compare Lehner to the guy drafted at 21, whoever that is. Who knows who Murray would have picked. If Lehner plays well for us, it was a good trade. If he doesn't, it wasn't a good trade. But the repercussions of such a mistake are well over-stated. I'll say it again, draft picks are way over-valued. This isn't the NFL where a first round pick at 21 overall is going to most likely play in the league, let alone step in immediately.

 

The statements about the trade still being poor value even if Lehner plays well, don't make any sense. Too much emphasis is put on "winning" a trade at the time it takes place, measuring perceived value against perceived value, prematurely determining who "won" and who got "fleeced". It's not about winning trades, it's about improving your team. If Lehner improves our team, it was a good trade. Darcy seemed to skew towards winning trades, GMTM has showed repeatedly he will pay the price in order to acquire what he wants in order to improve the team.

 

It is becoming abundantly clear that Tim Murray's work here will be best viewed at the macro level, and not in the micro. He is building the team he wants to build, and each trade is working in cohesion with the others. Let's wait and see the finished product.

 

Good point! At best, you take the average career of the five guys from 21-26 and figure that one of them would have been TM's pick.

[K-9]

Martin Jones (the available goalie most similar to Lehner) also went for a 1st-rounder, but that is mostly irrelevant.

The philosophy behind the Lehner deal is simple: identify what you want and pay the price to get it.

 

Murray identified Lehner — not Niemi, not Jones, not Lack, not Talbot — as the goalie he wanted.

He paid the price.

 

If Lehner fails as the team's starter, Murray made a mistake in judging his talent.

 

 

It's about building a team, not winning a trade.

Outstanding post! It applies to all professional team sports as well.

 

GO SABRES!!!