Why the Sabres will miss the playoffs

[JohnRobertEichel]

I organized our team-by-team season record according to the current standings, and the problem became apparent: the Sabres have been miserable against the Eastern Conference bottom feeders. To be more precise, 5-7-4 against the 5 absolute worst teams in the NHL (including Colorado):

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. Boston: 3-2-0

2. NJ: 2-1-0

3. Washington: 1-2-0

4. Philly: 0-2-0

5. Florida: 1-1-0

6. Montreal: 3-1-1

7. Carolina: 1-1-1

8. NYR: 3-0-0

-------------------

9. Pittsburgh: 2-1-1

10. BUFFALO: XXXXX

11. Toronto: 3-1-0

12. Ottawa: 1-3-1

13. TB: 2-2-0

14. Atlanta: 0-0-2

15. NYI: 2-2-0

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. SJ: 1-0-0

2. Detroit: 0-1-0

3. Calgary: 0-1-0

4. Chicago: 0-1-0

5. Vancouver: 1-0-0

6. Columbus: 0-1-0

7. Edmonton: 1-0-0

8. Dallas: 1-0-0

---------------------

9. Nashville: 0-1-0

10. Anaheim: 0-2-0

11. Minnesota: 1-0-0

12. St. Louis: 1-0-0

13. LA: 1-0-0

14. Phoenix: 2-0-0

15. Colorado: 0-0-1

 

When an otherwise decent team drops 18 of 32 possible points against the 5 worst teams in the league, something's terribly wrong. Spacek's comments following the most recent Islanders loss still haunt me: something about how the team thought it would be an easy win. This has to fall on the coaching. In my opinion, Lindy's job should be in danger if the Sabres don't turn this miserable :censored: ship around quickly.

[deluca67]

I organized our team-by-team season record according to the current standings, and the problem became apparent: the Sabres have been miserable against the Eastern Conference bottom feeders. To be more precise, 5-7-4 against the 5 absolute worst teams in the NHL (including Colorado):

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. Boston: 3-2-0

2. NJ: 2-1-0

3. Washington: 1-2-0

4. Philly: 0-2-0

5. Florida: 1-1-0

6. Montreal: 3-1-1

7. Carolina: 1-1-1

8. NYR: 3-0-0

-------------------

9. Pittsburgh: 2-1-1

10. BUFFALO: XXXXX

11. Toronto: 3-1-0

12. Ottawa: 1-3-1

13. TB: 2-2-0

14. Atlanta: 0-0-2

15. NYI: 2-2-0

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. SJ: 1-0-0

2. Detroit: 0-1-0

3. Calgary: 0-1-0

4. Chicago: 0-1-0

5. Vancouver: 1-0-0

6. Columbus: 0-1-0

7. Edmonton: 1-0-0

8. Dallas: 1-0-0

---------------------

9. Nashville: 0-1-0

10. Anaheim: 0-2-0

11. Minnesota: 1-0-0

12. St. Louis: 1-0-0

13. LA: 1-0-0

14. Phoenix: 2-0-0

15. Colorado: 0-0-1

 

When an otherwise decent team drops 18 of 32 possible points against the 5 worst teams in the league, something's terribly wrong. Spacek's comments following the most recent Islanders loss still haunt me: something about how the team thought it would be an easy win. This has to fall on the coaching. In my opinion, Lindy's job should be in danger if the Sabres don't turn this miserable :censored: ship around quickly.

I hate to tell you this since you went to all of this trouble. We have been talking about this for about 3 years now.

[JohnRobertEichel]

I hate to tell you this since you went to all of this trouble. We have been talking about this for about 3 years now.

 

I know, but I thought it would be useful to present the evidence anyway. It wasn't much trouble at all and was actually quite therapeutic for me. Some fans drink heavily or punch holes through walls after a game like tonight; I assemble data.

[carpandean]

I completely agree that it's a major problem, but couldn't you at least have gone with "If the Sabres miss the playoffs, this is why" for a thread title? :thumbdown:

[mercury]

Pessimism is in vogue.

[Kristian]

Yup, damn shame too cause I truly believe this team could become very good, if they just had that "attitude".

 

Unfortunately, we always seem to believe bottom feeders are easy points, and as a result we end up dropping more than 50% of those "easy points".

 

Overconfidence and laziness has been this team's achilles heel ever since our Presidents Trophy year. Too many young players picked up bad habits at crucial times in their careers during that season, it would seem.

 

Either that, our Ruff just sucks at motivating his players.

[tom webster]

Yup, damn shame too cause I truly believe this team could become very good, if they just had that "attitude".

 

Unfortunately, we always seem to believe bottom feeders are easy points, and as a result we end up dropping more than 50% of those "easy points".

 

Overconfidence and laziness has been this team's achilles heel ever since our Presidents Trophy year. Too many young players picked up bad habits at crucial times in their careers during that season, it would seem.

 

Either that, our Ruff just sucks at motivating his players.

 

I was wondering how far into the thread before we would hear this. This most overrated aspect of coaching. Ruff has his deficiencies, but this isn't one of them.

[SabresFan526]

I organized our team-by-team season record according to the current standings, and the problem became apparent: the Sabres have been miserable against the Eastern Conference bottom feeders. To be more precise, 5-7-4 against the 5 absolute worst teams in the NHL (including Colorado):

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. Boston: 3-2-0

2. NJ: 2-1-0

3. Washington: 1-2-0

4. Philly: 0-2-0

5. Florida: 1-1-0

6. Montreal: 3-1-1

7. Carolina: 1-1-1

8. NYR: 3-0-0

-------------------

9. Pittsburgh: 2-1-1

10. BUFFALO: XXXXX

11. Toronto: 3-1-0

12. Ottawa: 1-3-1

13. TB: 2-2-0

14. Atlanta: 0-0-2

15. NYI: 2-2-0

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. SJ: 1-0-0

2. Detroit: 0-1-0

3. Calgary: 0-1-0

4. Chicago: 0-1-0

5. Vancouver: 1-0-0

6. Columbus: 0-1-0

7. Edmonton: 1-0-0

8. Dallas: 1-0-0

---------------------

9. Nashville: 0-1-0

10. Anaheim: 0-2-0

11. Minnesota: 1-0-0

12. St. Louis: 1-0-0

13. LA: 1-0-0

14. Phoenix: 2-0-0

15. Colorado: 0-0-1

 

When an otherwise decent team drops 18 of 32 possible points against the 5 worst teams in the league, something's terribly wrong. Spacek's comments following the most recent Islanders loss still haunt me: something about how the team thought it would be an easy win. This has to fall on the coaching. In my opinion, Lindy's job should be in danger if the Sabres don't turn this miserable :censored: ship around quickly.

If there is any good news in any of this, the Sabres only play a sub .500 team five more times the rest of the season and those are two games each against Atlanta and Toronto and one more loss to Ottawa (we can put that in the books right now). They play Boston once, New Jersey once, Washington once, Philly twice, Florida twice, Montreal once, Carolina once, the Rangers once, and one more time against Detroit. Surprisingly, the Sabres have had a pretty good record against the rest of the teams on their schedule and if they can fight through and get the wins against the teams they have beaten who are higher in the standings, it really bodes well for Buffalo.

 

From a schedule perspective and looking at Buffalo's success against the teams they play, I like their chances of getting wins against Boston, NJ, Florida, Montreal, Carolina, and the Rangers. Add those up and you are looking at 7 wins. I also like their chances of getting two wins from Toronto, so that puts you at 9 wins. If they can eek 2 or 3 more wins from the rest of their schedule, they are in the playoffs. If not, they likely won't make it.

 

But, I agree with your main point, they have given up way too many games to teams they should be beating, and that's ridiculous. They cannot give up wins to Atlanta and Toronto going forward and they have to beat every team ahead of them in the standings the rest of the way.

[billsrcursed]

The sky is falling! Quick, nuke this motha!!!!

 

I think the fact that the team was finishing off a back to back, away, against a divisional rival, after winning 2 in a row, is enough to chalk this up as a bad loss, nothing more. If you thought they were gonna win out, well then, I'm sorry.

 

More bad news, we STILL won't be winning out from here. We're going to lose more games. I don't think last night was a "nail in the coffin". More like a standard bad loss. Could we look back and say this game cost us the playoffs? Sure, but haven't we said that about every single game we've lost this year?

 

Relax and enjoy the fact that we're still in the hunt. It could be worse, we could be Leafs fans (Millbank!!) :ph34r:

[stenbaro]

I cant believe that noone has answered the real question here...Why the Sabres will miss the playoffs???

 

NOT ENOUGH TALENT...You cant let your star players leave without getting something in return...If you cant get anything for them or cant move them for whatever reason you keep them till you can....They are rebuilding nicely and they have some good talent on the rise but they are 2 more years at least from being a contender..These young players wont come up and light it up their first year in the NHL and lead us to cup contention right away..Look how long its taking Stafford and Paille to get used to the NHL, and we arent even sure they are real yet...

Not to mention the fact Darcy didnt addressthe center position till a month left in the season...

 

Let me save you the same stupid replies I get when I Post the same answer to the same question.....

 

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/220603/

[tom webster]

I organized our team-by-team season record according to the current standings, and the problem became apparent: the Sabres have been miserable against the Eastern Conference bottom feeders. To be more precise, 5-7-4 against the 5 absolute worst teams in the NHL (including Colorado):

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. Boston: 3-2-0

2. NJ: 2-1-0

3. Washington: 1-2-0

4. Philly: 0-2-0

5. Florida: 1-1-0

6. Montreal: 3-1-1

7. Carolina: 1-1-1

8. NYR: 3-0-0

-------------------

9. Pittsburgh: 2-1-1

10. BUFFALO: XXXXX

11. Toronto: 3-1-0

12. Ottawa: 1-3-1

13. TB: 2-2-0

14. Atlanta: 0-0-2

15. NYI: 2-2-0

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

 

1. SJ: 1-0-0

2. Detroit: 0-1-0

3. Calgary: 0-1-0

4. Chicago: 0-1-0

5. Vancouver: 1-0-0

6. Columbus: 0-1-0

7. Edmonton: 1-0-0

8. Dallas: 1-0-0

---------------------

9. Nashville: 0-1-0

10. Anaheim: 0-2-0

11. Minnesota: 1-0-0

12. St. Louis: 1-0-0

13. LA: 1-0-0

14. Phoenix: 2-0-0

15. Colorado: 0-0-1

 

When an otherwise decent team drops 18 of 32 possible points against the 5 worst teams in the league, something's terribly wrong. Spacek's comments following the most recent Islanders loss still haunt me: something about how the team thought it would be an easy win. This has to fall on the coaching. In my opinion, Lindy's job should be in danger if the Sabres don't turn this miserable :censored: ship around quickly.

 

Looking at this even closer, the record against Ottawa is the only real problem. Assuming Ottawa overtakes Toronto, Buffalo's record against the bottom 5 will be 7-5-4 pending the remaining games blowing up another myth that Buffalo has this horrible record against the bottom feeders. Certain teams just give another team fits whether it be a bad match up, lack of confidence, etc. If Buffalo misses the payoffs it will be because for two years now they have proven to be just a .500 club no matter what team they play. For the record I think they will make it but i wouldn't bet anything of value on it.

[PASabreFan]

The premise of this analysis implies the Sabres are not themselves a bottom feeder, or close to being one. I'll accept that, but we're not nearly good enough for our record against the lesser lights to even be an issue.

[Kristian]

I was wondering how far into the thread before we would hear this. This most overrated aspect of coaching. Ruff has his deficiencies, but this isn't one of them.

 

Never said he did, just saying that I don't know what causes this problem.

[R_Dudley]

The sky is falling! Quick, nuke this motha!!!!

 

I think the fact that the team was finishing off a back to back, away, against a divisional rival, after winning 2 in a row, is enough to chalk this up as a bad loss, nothing more. If you thought they were gonna win out, well then, I'm sorry.

 

More bad news, we STILL won't be winning out from here. We're going to lose more games. I don't think last night was a "nail in the coffin". More like a standard bad loss. Could we look back and say this game cost us the playoffs? Sure, but haven't we said that about every single game we've lost this year?

 

Relax and enjoy the fact that we're still in the hunt. It could be worse, we could be Leafs fans (Millbank!!) :ph34r:

 

Good points, I will also add we have alot of the important 4 point games left on the schedule and really the next 9 games 6 against teams above us and 3 against the lower will tell the tale, We also have 4 more back to backs and 3 of them are the 3 games in four night potential debacles we witnessed last night. If this team is to go anywhere in the playoffs we need to learn how to play those type of schedules because it is a PO like schedule.

 

With 16 games left it looks like it will take at least 11 wins 5 losses allowed to get in. If you concede our horrible record in the back to backs as a loss it would account for 4 of the 5 and it allows for one loss elsewhere.

 

There are many other ways to slice and dice the remaining games but I'll look at it like this we cannot lose anymore than 5 of the remaining 16 and until the standings say otherwise and the proverbial fat lady sings we are still in it and I will still watch and probably grimace every step of the way but also get to see who on this team rises or falls with the occasion because thats how this fan rolls ........ Go Sabres

[carpandean]

The premise of this analysis implies the Sabres are not themselves a bottom feeder, or close to being one. I'll accept that, but we're not nearly good enough for our record against the lesser lights to even be an issue.

I think the point isn't that we just have a bad record against bottom feeders teams (edit: oops); it's that we have that and a strong record against top teams (at least in the East.) They have winning records against #1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 11 and even records (or close to it) against 5 and 7. Really, it's only against #3 and 4 that they have true losing records (again, in the East.)

[PASabreFan]

Good points, I will also add we have alot of the important 4 point games left on the schedule and really the next 9 games 6 against teams above us and 3 against the lower will tell the tale, We also have 4 more back to backs and 3 of them are the 3 games in four night potential debacles we witnessed last night. If this team is to go anywhere in the playoffs we need to learn how to play those type of schedules because it is a PO like schedule.

 

With 16 games left it looks like it will take at least 11 wins 5 losses allowed to get in. If you concede our horrible record in the back to backs as a loss it would account for 4 of the 5 and it allows for one loss elsewhere.

 

There are many other ways to slice and dice the remaining games but I'll look at it like this we cannot lose anymore than 5 of the remaining 16 and until the standings say otherwise and the proverbial fat lady sings we are still in it and I will still watch and probably grimace every step of the way but also get to see who on this team rises or falls with the occasion because thats how this fan rolls ........ Go Sabres

 

I'll tell you one guy who #%^$#! the bed last night -- Mr. Spacek. He took two of the most boneheaded penalties. I guess to make himself feel better about being clocked early in the game. And will, for the love of God, someone tell these defenseman to stop trying to use the top 10% of the glass to clear the zone? Such a cute play. It's like when I try to use a sand wedge to lob the ball over a bunker and stop it by the pin. You know I'm going to the beach. Bang it out and take your three putt!

[Bmwolf21]

I think the fact that the team was finishing off a back to back, away, against a divisional rival, after winning 2 in a row, is enough to chalk this up as a bad loss, nothing more. If you thought they were gonna win out, well then, I'm sorry.

This way beyond chalking it as a bad loss because we lost the second game of a back-to-back. It's losing to teams that we need to beat (teams buried deep in the standings) and not putting together anything that resembles a winning streak. We haven't won three in a row since mid-January, and have been on this "win one, lose one" streak since the start of the New Year. We can't be pissing away points on games against Ottawa, the Islanders, Atlanta...

With 16 games left it looks like it will take at least 11 wins 5 losses allowed to get in. If you concede our horrible record in the back to backs as a loss it would account for 4 of the 5 and it allows for one loss elsewhere.

Do you really believe this team is consistent or mentally tough enough to go 11-5 (at a minimum) down the stretch and get in?

[SwampD]

I think the point isn't that we just have a bad record against bottom feeders; it's that we have that and a strong record against top teams (at least in the East.) They have winning records against #1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 11 and even records (or close to it) against 5 and 7. Really, it's only against #3 and 4 that they have true losing records (again, in the East.)

In other words, we have a pretty good record against the bottom feeders..it's the bottom we have trouble with.

[carpandean]

In other words, we have a pretty good record against the bottom feeders..it's the bottom we have trouble with.

Oops. Fixed above.

[PASabreFan]

We haven't won three in a row since mid-January, and have been on this "win one, lose one" streak since the start of the New Year. We can't be pissing away points on games against Ottawa, the Islanders, Atlanta...

 

Actually the Sabres started January 7-2. The seventh win, at Tampa, was the first game of the six game road trip. Ales Kotalik was the first star. Seems like a long time ago. The win one lose one started on the road trip, which seemed acceptable. They're 9-9-2 since that Florida game, by the way. I wonder what their record is since Lindy said they were looking to move up in the East and not settle for eighth. Easy -- probably around .500!

[wonderbread]

go Bills... :ph34r:

[R_Dudley]

This way beyond chalking it as a bad loss because we lost the second game of a back-to-back. It's losing to teams that we need to beat (teams buried deep in the standings) and not putting together anything that resembles a winning streak. We haven't won three in a row since mid-January, and have been on this "win one, lose one" streak since the start of the New Year. We can't be pissing away points on games against Ottawa, the Islanders, Atlanta...

 

Do you really believe this team is consistent or mentally tough enough to go 11-5 (at a minimum) down the stretch and get in?

 

Well since you asked YES and I will use your quote to demonstrate, so IMHO actually it's more like we have done a win 2 lose 1 (for illustration).

 

So if we can keep that pattern of win 2 lose 1 then to get to 5 losses multiply by 2 wins that also occur with every loss putting us at 10 - 5, 15 games in and it tells me that last game could be for all the marbles...... So to me Yes I am just saying they are not out of it yet by a longshot... Now next week at this time these odds can be allot different and really crappy but hey were still talking today..

[zow2]

I hate Ottawa with every cell in my body. They were a factor in us not making the playoffs last year too. And they were the last team to beat us in the playoffs i believe?!?

The fact of the matter is that Pittsburgh, Carolina and Florida are just playing too good right now. Even the Rangers have picked it up. Those teams are winning at home AND the road. Buffalo is holding serve a home for the most part but these regulation losses on the road are killing them.

[Bmwolf21]

Actually the Sabres started January 7-2. The seventh win, at Tampa, was the first game of the six game road trip. Ales Kotalik was the first star. Seems like a long time ago. The win one lose one started on the road trip, which seemed acceptable. They're 9-9-2 since that Florida game, by the way. I wonder what their record is since Lindy said they were looking to move up in the East and not settle for eighth. Easy -- probably around .500!

True. They won four straight to start the month, dropped a pair to Detroit and Chicago, then won three straight Since then they've had one two-game winning streak, and everything else has been W1, L1 - .500 hockey. That's why I doubt that they can turn it on and play almost .700 hockey to hit that mythical 93-point playoff target.

 

FWIW - the game you are referring to (the seventh win) was at Florida, not Tampa. The Sabres beat Florida 3-2 in the SO to start the six-game road trip and then lost 5-3 to Tampa two nights later. Kotalik did have a goal against Tampa but was scoreless against Florida.

 

Well since you asked YES and I will use your quote to demonstrate, so IMHO actually it's more like we have done a win 2 lose 1 (for illustration).

 

So if we can keep that pattern of win 2 lose 1 then to get to 5 losses multiply by 2 wins that also occur with every loss putting us at 10 - 5, 15 games in and it tells me that last game could be for all the marbles...... So to me Yes I am just saying they are not out of it yet by a longshot... Now next week at this time these odds can be allot different and really crappy but hey were still talking today..

I'm not sure I follow your "actually it's more like we have done a win 2 lose 1" comment. Please explain.

[PASabreFan]

FWIW - the game you are referring to (the seventh win) was at Florida, not Tampa. The Sabres beat Florida 3-2 in the SO to start the six-game road trip and then lost 5-3 to Tampa two nights later. Kotalik did have a goal against Tampa but was scoreless against Florida.

 

Ah yes it's great for me to correct someone's else post and then screw something up myself. At least I was in the right state.

 

Speaking of covering your tracks, anyone catch Bucky's hysterical sidebar in the News today? He's been trying to save face since he trade deadline reporting was even worse than Ecklund's. Well, according to Bucky anyway, he was ACTUALLY right. Until he was wrong. He also voted for the bill before he voted against it.