JohnRobertEichel

Keep in mind the following: 1. The salaries of Okposo and O'Reilly drop over the life of the contract as the salaries of Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Nylander can be expected to increase. 2. You can expect the NHL salary cap to continue to increase over the next 5+ years. 3. We don't currently have - and are unlikely to obtain - an elite goalie and elite defenders (elite = super expensive). This team is being built to roll 3 genuine scoring lines while largely relying on coaching and "the system" to maintain an above-average defense. 4. The albatross contracts for Bogosian, Moulson, and Gorges will be long gone by the time we expect to pay Mittelstadt, Reinhart, and Nylander the big bucks we hope they deserve. 5. No one is seriously expecting Asplund or Pu to become top-6 NHL forwards. 6. Kane is one of the very few Sabres forwards that is actually producing. Why not reward players in their prime who produce? The aspiration now should be winning games and not extending a seemingly perpetual build/rebuild process. 7. Most young adults like Kane mature a lot by the time they enter their late 20's, and all accounts suggest that his teammates like him. 8. Kane's next big contract is predicated on staying healthy this year. If he does so, would it be fair to label him "injury-prone?"

I crunched the numbers for this a few months back, and I found that we absolutely could keep all of Kane and Reinhart and Lehner. It was going to be very tight, though, for next season only. Some things I factored in to my calculations: 1. I was able to trade Moulson. 2. I bought out Bogosian. 3. Ullmark, Guhle, Nylander, Bailey, and Baptiste all made the full-time roster. Depending on how the numbers end up, another option might be to trade Pominville and his 1-year, $5 million contract. He's a very productive forward but is also in his mid-30's and clearly isn't part of the future. I'm also not sure that Lehner is part of our future anymore. So maybe Kane and Reinhart will be our only $2million+ free agents during the off-season.

Watching another 7-9/6-10 Jauronesque Bills team for the 18th straight season is not my idea of fun.

I don't know. O'Reilly is -3 after two games. Okposo is -5 after two games. Do they have futures here? At least those two have each other on the same line. Reinhart gets the likes of Zemgus Girgensons, Jacob Josefson, and Matt Moulson as linemates and people are surprised that nothing good is coming out of this?! Let me remind you all that Sam Reinhart finished 142nd and then 114th in league scoring during his first two pro years. That's considered high-end second scoring line production. And this was accomplished under a Dan Bylsma offense. And at a position that was new to him. And he's still only 21 years old. I like Coach Housley. He was my first choice during the head coach search this past off-season. But he needs to quickly wise up and pair Reinhart back with Eichel and let them continue with whatever chemistry they had for the past two years. Let Sam build his confidence back up a bit now and try the center experiment next year. By the way, Gionta is still a free agent. Why aren't we trying to sign him? Are we worried that he will keep such hockey powerhouses as Seth Griffith and Jordan Nolan out of the lineup?

The lack of talent at the wing positions is already quite evident and very disturbing. There is simply no talent left for Reinhart for a third scoring line. Maybe it's time to move him back to wing and wait until Nylander and Mittelstadt arrive before shifting him back again to center? Outside of a top 6 of Eichel, Kane, Pominville, Okposo, O'Reilly, and Reinhart, I don't see anyone on this roster that provides any hope of scoring goals. Girgensons, Pouliot, and Moulson are pure garbage to me. By the way, what the ever happened to Bailey, Baptiste, and Fasching? I thought at least 1-2 of them was supposed to make the jump to the pros. I've been out of the loop for the past couple of months. I do know that Nylander has been injured, so that's his excuse. I fully realize that it has only been 2 games, but I have been following this team religiously for the past 6 seasons. I'm tired of watching games for "player development" and draft lottery potential. If this is going to be a 7th straight season of no playoffs, maybe I should take a break from hockey until this franchise can learn to get its act together.

I interpreted last night's attack as Dany heeding Jon's advice by avoiding a King's Landing attack and thus the murder of many innocent civilians. But she had to do SOMETHING, and she did by ambushing the Lannister army and destroying part of their food/money supply chain. Killing people in a war is unavoidable. Better soldiers than civilians, I suppose. Even Jon Snow would agree with that. Personally, I don't care for Dany so much as this noble princess protagonist. She's just as power-hungry as the rest of them. I'm kind of rooting for the Night King to wipe all the humans out on Westeros and give the land back to the Children of the Forest. By the way, the Dany+Jon romance angle is disturbing to me. Aren't they aunt and nephew?

Analyses like this are useful in the sense that they provide a quick assessment of the current strengths and weaknesses of a franchise. No one seriously believes such a list will remain static for 3 years, that every player will develop as projected, that no trades will be made, that no new players will be drafted, or that free agency won't alter the position landscape. For those who aren't already very familiar with the Sabres organization, after this analysis it should now be apparent that the franchise is incredibly strong at center, lacking in RHD depth, missing elite talent at LHD, okay at goalie, and maybe a bit deficient at wing if a couple of the centers don't slide over there. I am a broken record here, but in my opinion, JBot's main objective and main difficulty now is to identify a top-50 NHL defenseman to pair with Risto in time for our EXPECTED deep playoff run in 3 years. He doesn't need to be a Norris Trophy winner; we just need to hang with offensive powerhouse teams like Toronto and Edmonton. And I'm not confident that this player is currently on the roster or that he can easily be obtained through free agency or future draft picks. Trades may be our best bet. Fortunately for us, we see that we have a surplus of quality forwards to move. Seven of our forwards (Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly, Kane, Okposo, Nylander, Mittelstadt) have top-line (top-100 NHL forward) projections.

I think the Sabres are actually 2-4 in Conference Finals (1975, 1980, 1998, 1999, 2006, 2007). That article doesn't include Mittelstadt, Kane, Baptiste, and Davidsson. Here are my top 12 forwards in a few years: Mittelstadt - Eichel - Nylander Kane - Reinhart - Okposo Asplund - O'Reilly - Baptiste Davidsson - Girgensons - Bailey That looks incredibly strong to me. Possibly the best in the entire league if all 12 reach their talent projections? Or am I being a homer?

Actually, I deliberately left him out of the top LHD conversation because I see him as more of a known quantity at age 27: that of a solid second-line LHD in this league. This year he will probably be the top LHD and probably won't embarrass himself, but long-term I'd like to see a genuine top-50 NHL defenseman to pair with Risto. McCabe, Guhle, and Beaulieu each have the talent to become one.

You forgot Baptiste. On paper, yes I believe we definitely have the talent to compete with Toronto and Edmonton in 3 years. The biggest question mark for me is finding that highly elusive top-line LHD to pair with Risto. Our best bet is for one of McCabe, Guhle, or Beaulieu to somehow develop into that kind of player. I'd rather not have to address this via trades, and free agency is very unlikely to help. At least JBot will have 2-3 years to figure this problem out while all of the young forwards are developing.

How about this documentary: "A Tale of Two AFC East Cities." The story of the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills during the 21st century.

For what it's worth, I recently did some back-of-the-envelope calculations on our salary cap situation next season (2017-18) to see if we could keep both Reinhart and Kane long-term. The conclusion was that we absolutely could keep both, and I had Kane down at this poll's high number of $7 million per season. I was also able to keep everyone else we like (Eichel, Lehner, Girgensons, Beaulieu, Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching) and still field a full-23 man roster for next year. The bad news, however, is that there wouldn't be any money for any other needed roster upgrades next year unless we trade or buy out Moulson, Pominville, and/or Bogosian.

The author is from Winnipeg?! LOL that explains everything now. Even so, I appreciate the analytical spirit of the article. This is essentially a top 125 NHL player ranking grouped into 5 meaningful tiers. By the end of next season, I bet an updated list would look more like this for the Sabres: 1. Eichel - tier 1 - moves up one tier (deserves his tier 2 ranking at the moment, but has the talent to move up one) 2. O'Reilly - tier 2 - holds steady (maybe even a little too high, but whatever) 3. Ristolainen - tier 3 - makes a first appearance (should have been on this current list as tier 5...hopefully Housley reduces his minutes a bit to increase performance) 4. Okposo - tier 5 - holds steady (fair assessment) 5. Reinhart - tier 5 - holds steady (has potential to eventually rise a tier or two if he gets moved to center) 6. Kane - tier 5 - makes a first appearance on list (would have already made this list if he had a bit more consistency in his career) Look at that! That gives us 15 stars next year....enough to be a solid Stanley Cup contender, according to this guy's analysis. Also, Mittelstadt and Nylander have the talent to make this list in two or three years.

We once had 3 Hobey Baker winners on the Sabres roster. That was the 2012-13 season. Miller, Porter, and Leopold.

You're looking at a 17-point improvement in one year (78 last year to 95 this year to make the playoffs) as a "phoenix-like rise." But I look at it as a more reasonable 14-point improvement in two years (81 two years ago to 95 this year). I see the team as having unnaturally regressed last season due to overwhelming injuries, poor coaching, and poor leadership. They should have been in the high-80's / low-90's in points last year. A lot of the changes made this offseason have been in the form of slight improvements, but these changes do add up even if they aren't as noticeable as a more Murray-like splash of trading for an O'Reilly or signing an Okposo. The defense is certainly faster with Beaulieu/Antipin/Scandella in place of Franson/Gorges/Kulikov in the top-6. Pominville and Pouliot is a little better than Gionta and Foligno. The biggest improvement among the roster, however, may come from the large number of hungry players with chips on their shoulders and reasons to play lights out this season. Pouliot, Kane, Beaulieu, Antipin, and Reinhart - for example - are all very talented hockey players with 1-year contracts. Final thought: you say that the change in coaching doesn't have as big of an effect as people think. I very strongly disagree. But I'll just leave it at that. We can revisit this topic in another half-year or so.

Well that's certainly my opinion. I always thought that your best passers (potentially Reinhart?) and your most defensively sound forwards (O'Reilly?) should be playing center, if possible. Maybe I don't know enough about Mittelstadt yet, but I think he projects as a more skilled player than Reinhart and O'Reilly in terms of skating speed and finishing ability. I would think the team is better served having a talent like him as the left wing to Eichel than as a center on a secondary scoring line.

This is a fun problem to have in the near future (by October 2019?): who plays center and who gets moved to wing? Eichel, Reinhart, O'Reilly, Mittelstadt, Asplund, and Girgensons all can play center. Assuming no trades, two will have to be moved to wing. Eichel will be the 1st line center. Girgensons would make an excellent 4th line center on a Stanley Cup contending team. Given the franchise's composition, I propose running three scoring lines. So two of Reinhart, O'Reilly, Mittelstadt, and Asplund will need to be moved to wing. The question then becomes one of optimizing talent. How do each of these four players perform in the center versus out at wing? In my opinion, the most optimal solution is to put Reinhart and O'Reilly at center while moving Mittelstadt and Asplund to left wing. Thoughts?

JBOT doesn't like wingers with elite speed and shooting skills? Some of the Nylander hate around here is getting ridiculous. Alex is NINETEEN years old. He's not developing any slower than his older brother, William, and actually played his first 4 NHL games a year younger than William. I agree that we need to see some level of AHL dominance from him this season, but the near total absence of patience among hockey fans is very aggravating. You're not an NHL bust if you don't hit the ground running like McDavid or Matthews. By the way, can anyone comment on the performance from this year's early 2nd rounder, Marcus Davidsson?

I prefer Reinhart over Kane and I'd like to remind everyone that Reinhart - at age 21 - is almost 5 full years younger than Kane. That's a very significant age difference when you're talking development for pro hockey. So simple statistical comparisons like career points-per-game aren't at all fair to Sam. However, I really like Kane as well and strongly disagree with the assumption that we can't keep both long-term. First, let's define the core. By "core," I mean players who are considered young enough to be around long-term and talented enough to command annual NHL salaries greater than - say - $2 million. So I currently have 8: our 5 top-6 forwards of Eichel, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Kane, and Okposo plus the top-2 defensemen line of Ristolainen and Scandella plus the starting goalie, Lehner. Note that players like McCabe, Guhle, Nylander, and Mittelstadt could eventually join this group, but by that time the NHL salary cap will have increased simultaneously while the contracts for some of the aforementioned core of 8 will have decreased. 4 of the 8 (O'Reilly, Okposo, Ristolainen, Scandella) are already signed to long-enough contracts: 2017-18: $26.4 mill 2018-19: $24.4 mill 2019-20: $22.15 mill 2020-21: $17.4 mill 2021-22: $15.4 mill Eichel and Lehner will get their new contracts done this summer. I believe we can risk waiting until next summer to do Reinhart's contract because he's a 2nd overall drafted RFA whom other teams won't take in exchange for multiple 1st rounders...but maybe I'm wrong on this assumption? Kane is a tough one...I think the Sabres need to sign him this summer or else will have to just assume that he will leave Buffalo next summer. Also, everyone please keep in mind that Moulson, Gorges, Bogosian, and Pominville are obviously not part of the future and currently count toward the cap as such: 2017-18: $19.4 mill 2018-19: $14 mill 2019-20: $6 mill 2020-21: $0 2021-22: $0 I will be furious if the new GM gives up on Kane or Reinhart because of $$$ while the likes of these 4 are still on the books.

This season, I expect Reinhart to play RW on Jack's line and finish with about 60 points (25 goals + 35 assists). In the long term, I expect him to average 25 goals + 45 assists as the center for the second scoring line. And for those who are wondering, by long-term I mean as early as the 2018-19 season with some speculative Sabres forward lineup like the following: Mittelstadt - Eichel - Nylander Kane - Reinhart - Okposo Bailey - O'Reilly - Baptiste Girgensons - Larsson - Fasching (Davidsson and Asplund still in Rochester, Pouliot and Moulson and Pominville somewhere else) Contrary to many out there, I actually feel that Reinhart is developing nicely. Maybe our expectations for talented young players have been warped from the instant mega-successes of Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews? Sam is barely old enough to buy alcohol, and he has already put together two consecutive pro seasons commensurate with the expectations for a genuine top-6 NHL forward (i.e. finishing within the top 150 in the league for points). And he has done so while playing under an incompetent head coach and at a new position that doesn't optimize the particular elite skill that warranted his 2nd overall draft selection - his hockey IQ (that is to say, his positional awareness and passing ability from the center position).

I voted "not sure" and am still very skeptical that this is a playoff contender. I like the work that JB has done so far, but I still think that more needs to be done before the season starts: 1. re-sign Gionta to a cheap, 1-year contract but without the captaincy (give the C to Eichel and the A's to O'Reilly and McCabe) 2. get rid of Moulson and replace with a genuine scoring stop-gap LW...Vanek is a good option. 3. get rid of Gorges and replace with a solid RHD prospect. 4. sign Eichel and Kane to new contracts before they hit free agency next summer.

There's still some work to be done: 1. Gorges needs to leave. He's old, sucks, doesn't play the style of defense that Housley wants, was supposed to bring solid veteran leadership last year but didn't, and this year costs $3.9 million that could go toward more productive areas of the roster. 2. The depth behind Risto on the right side is terrible. I'm not a fan of Bogo at all, but I've managed to convince myself that our Defenseman Whisperer head coach can salvage this 9-year vet who still is in his mid-20's and still has the raw physical talent of a 3rd overall draft choice. Antipin can supposedly shift to the right without issue. But behind these 3? No one with legitimate NHL talent. I'd like to see at least 1 RHD prospect to go with Guhle, our only real LHD prospect.

So....which former Sabre is next? Mogilny? Barrasso? Turgeon?

A lot of what you say is reasonable, but the bottom line is that I'm not going to rush to call Murray a "disaster" if 3 or so years down the line this team is (hopefully) a legitimate Stanley Cup contender with Lehner as the starting goalie and Reinhart, Okposo, O'Reilly, Nylander, and possibly Kane comprising the top 6 forwards (I'm excluding Eichel since every GM in the world would have drafted him 2nd overall that year). I suppose we're just arguing over the definition of "disaster." I agree that Murray deserved to be fired, but I don't think that his short tenure was a total waste of time.

Wow, "excellent" is quite the stretch. One can't ignore: 1. The current state of the defensemen corps. 2. Sticking with Bylsma. 3. The terrible Rochester AHL team. 4. Salary mismanagement, namely Bogo, Ennis, Gorges, and Moulson. 5. Already burning through all of our assets accumulated during the 6-year playoff drought. 6. Stalling and slightly regressing during the 2016-17 season to finish 5th worst in the league. However, I will defend Murray from those already calling him a GM disaster. I believe his Buffalo legacy will ultimately be judged on the outcomes of: 1. the Reinhart selection 2. the Nylander selection 3. the Kane trade 4. the O'Reilly trade 5. the Lehner trade We will probably need another 3 years minimum to fairly judge Murray. I happen to really like all of the aforementioned 5 players, so I think history will be kinder to him.