IKnowPhysics

Thanks. I took the "classic" NHLe and mulitplied by the average amount that the group of players have historically exceeded their NHLe. Example: Forwards picked in the top five exceed their NHLe on average about 12% (a factor of 1.12). First overall picks exceeded their NHLe on average about 53% (a factor of 1.53). So looking at McDavid again, who had 2.61PPG in the OHL (NHLe factor 0.29)... 2.61PPG x 0.29 x 82 NHL games = 62 points 62 points x 1.12 = 70ish points 62 points x 1.53 = 95ish points Using the boost from the new NHLe, it's possible that McDavid could score 70-95 points, depending on whether he plays like a "top five pick forward" or a "number one overall pick" historically has.

2nd overall from 2014 Sam Reinhart 1.8 PPG in OHL NHLe: 43 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 48-55 points. Note that Ennis is leading the pace year towards 48 points.

[if someone more organized than me wants to pull these NHLe posts into a new thread, I'm fine with that.] I compiled all of the relevant NHLe data on the top five drafts of each year going back to 2005 (Crosby draft). Using the NHLe factors I posted above, I calculated the expected NHLe of every top five draft pick had for their first 30+ game NHL season. I compared this NHLe to their actual production in that first 30+ game season. Top five draft picks, regardless of position, on average, scored 19% more points in their first 30+ game NHL season than what NHLe predicted they would. Forwards scored on average 12% more. Defense scored 34% more. 1st overall picks scored a whopping 53% more. 2nd overall picks scored 28% more. 3rd overall picks scored 5% more.. 4th overall picks scored 22% more. 5th overall picks scored 1% less. The forward to most exceed expectations was Bobby Ryan (98% percent more points than NHLe). The defenseman to most exceed expectations has been Aaron Ekblad (114% percent more points than NHLe so far this season). Jack Johnson was the defenseman to least meet expectations (67% fewer points) in their first 30+ game season. Brayden Schenn was the forward to least meet expectations (41% fewer points) in their first 30+ game season. Nino Neiderreiter was so bad with the Islanders (1 point in 55 games), that I gave him a pass as an outlier and used the stats from his transition in Minnesota, where he beat expectations by 49%. It appears that, on average, NHLe underrates elite prospects. This is because NHLe normally averages every player that makes the jump from whichever league to the NHL, and it seems like elite players are getting more ice time, better usage, power play time, better linemates, etc, than the average prospect making the jump, which enhances elite prospects' point production. This new knowledge can be applied to the upcoming draft (using players in the CSS rankings): 1st overall Connor McDavid 2.61 PPG in OHL NHLe: 62 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 70-95 points. 2nd overall Jack Eichel 1.70 PPG in NCAA NHLe: 57 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 63-73 points. 3rd overall Noah Hanifin 0.59 PPG in NCAA NHLe: 20 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 20-27 points. 4th overall Lawson Crouse 0.77 PPG in OHL NHLe: 18 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 20-22 points. Remember that this kid is 6'4" 212lbs at age 17. 5th overall Dylan Strome 1.86 PPG in OHL NHLe: 44 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 44-49 points.

You're probably right. Trying to predict what these top end players are capable of is really an extrapolation of the data, and is almost by definition unreliable. And there's so many real life factors that could pare that 50 percent boost down to 25, 15, 5 percent. Or in the case of a team that's facing a lot of statistical adversity, it could be lower, and player may not meet their NHLe. When I get a couple more minutes, I'll do a comprehensive look at top-two (or more) picks and whether they were able to meet the expectations calculated by this method.

Jesus, I'm slow tonight. Thanks. I'm always surprised too. It seems like such a simplistic, ham-handed technique. But it works pretty good, especially if the player you're looking at gets opportunities that resemble average minutes and average usage.

Mitch Marner has scored 90 points in 42 games so far for the Knights this season, which equates to roughly 51 points over 82 games. It'd be very surprising (like MacKinnon surprising) if he actually accomplished that, for lots of reasons (usage in the NHL, playing more than nine games and burning a year of ELC, developing his two way game), but it appears possible and his scoring has definitely accelerated in juniors. A couple more, for fun. These are some rarer cases where NHLe fails and guys make a big leap forward, thus proving themselves indispensable prospects to their clubs. The departure from the predicted value is caused not just by the players' development, but by the increase in minutes and the quality linemates they've earned, compared to an average rookie: From his work in Grand Rapids in the AHL, Tomas Tatar could've expected to reasonably score 26 points in his 73 games last season for Detroit. But he busted open in the NHL with 39 points last year. He's on pace for 37 goals and 60 points this season and he's currently the Red Wings' leading scorer. Maybe that's why Babcock doesn't want to move him. Similarly, Gustav Nyquist also lit up the A, and should've posted about 27 points in his 57 games with the Red Wings last year. Instead, he put up 48. Aaron Ekblad should have about 12 points in his 44 games, but he's put up 25 points. This demonstrates one of the things that's exciting about McDavid. Based on his 60 points in 23 games so far this season with Erie, you might expect he could post 62 points in the NHL using NHLe. BUT he could earn opportunities to play more than the average rookie, if he doesn't have gaping developmental holes in his game. He could be playing big minutes with great linemates and lots of powerplay time, which, like Tomas Tatar, could allow him to post 50% more points than NHLe predicts. Then you're having conversations about a possible 93-point rookie, in which his statistical colleagues are Malkin, Yzerman, Bossy, Niuewendyk, Trottier, Crosby, Hawerchuk, Ovechkin, etc. If Eichel were able to play right away and get on the great side of some great minutes, his NHLe could boost 50% from 58 points towards 87 points. But that could be asking a lot of his usage and playing opportunities. Nevertheless, it shows why Eichel could be considered a #1 overall in other years.

NHL point equivalency aims to predict the number of points that a player would score in the next 82 game NHL season. This is done by examining the historical stats of the many players that have made the leap from any given league (like the AHL, junior leagues, NCAA, SM-Liiga, etc) to the NHL the following year, then calculating a modifier/fudge/conversion/equivalency factor to the points per game the player scored in that previous league. Once the conversion factors are calculated (by some other nerd), they're pretty easy to use. For example: Sam Reinhart scored 132 points over his last 75 games with Kootenay. That's 1.76 points per game in juniors. Then you multiply by the NHLe factor for the Canadian Major Juniors (0,29) and the number of NHL games in a season (82). This gives you the number of points you might expect from the Reinhart over a full 82 game season. (132/75) x (0.29) x (82) = 41.8 points. Disclaimers: It obviously doesn't account for injuries (playing fewer NHL games), though you can calculate for fewer games than 82. It doesn't account for out-of-ordinary player usage (ie, Grigorenko playing only four minutes of 4th line per game or Nate MacKinnon playing immense minutes with top line linemates for COL his first year). It's designed for the average, solid usage of a rookie player. That said, not all, but most players I've calculated fall within about 10% of their values once they get to the NHL. Even rookies that come up play and short 10-40 game stints with the Sabres, it's worked out pretty well. At least before the recent Sabres stat-skewing tankfest. There's an added bonus: you can compare how "strong" a league is by comparing their equivalency factors- the bigger the factor, the stronger the league. So you can characterize leagues a little: the NCAA is a little tougher to score in than Canadian Juniors, but doesn't really compare to the "playing against men" leagues like RSL and Czech League. A player that scores 50 points in SEL is a much better player than one that scores 50 points in juniors in the same number of games. And since I'm typing this out anyways, let's do some math for funsies. Risto played in SM-Liiga, scoring 15 points in 52 games for TPS. He then came to Buffalo last year and scored only 4 points in 34 games. Was that backward development, or was it right on? His NHLe was 5 points. Pretty close to right on. Zadorov killed it last year in the OHL for the London Knights, scoring 30 points in 39 games from the blue line. NHLe says he should have 8 points in his 34 games this season with Buffalo. How many does he have? Eight! Nic Deslauriers scored 39 points in 60 games for the Manchester Monarchs of the AHL last season. His NHLe predicts he should have 13 points in 47 games with Buffalo. He currently has 12. Grigorenko had a tumultuous year last year to say the least, but he would eventually go back to the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL and wreck it with 39 points in 23 games. According to NHLe, he was capable of posting about 6 points in his 12 games this season in Buffalo. He had a disappointing two points in those 12 games. Maybe it was poor usage or small sample size. And (due to math I won't explain, but it's not hard to figure out), if Grigorenko were really playing at the level that he showed in juniors and he was adjusting well to the "big man's" game, this method says we should expect about 38 points in his 34 games in Rochester. He only has 29 points there. It could be a symptom of the reason why he's spending more time there this year.

I'm pretty sure that's how you get MRSA.

Filthy wrist shots.

MLSE cracking down on jersey tossers. Possible $125 fines.

That's Dinosaur MacTavish thinking. "We have a team full of lazy wingers and no defense or goaltending. I've got an idea!" But I would literally jizz myself if Tim Murray convinced MacT to give away that pick for any two of anything that didn't include Reinhart or a 2015 or 2016 first. I mean: Myers and ______ = new pants. Grigorenko and ______ = pants shopping. Ennis and ______ = time to go to JC Penneys. Even trading away the wonder twins Risto and Zad, who I very much like, you likely get some combination of McDavid, Eichel, or Hannafin, and I get some chinos.

FYI, McDavid's NHL point equivalency right now is 64.2 points. Eichel's is 58.5. For reference, Reinhart's is 42.8 and Lemiuexex's is 28.5.

Dave Nonis is going to do what Han Solo did in 12 parsecs. Make the Kessel Run.

We're 5th in cap space at $10.433M. We have more than $20M in UFAs potentially coming off the books (a little less if you don't count the goalies).

I was quoting Glen Sather on if he had to do it over again whether he'd sign Brad Richards.

No.

Agreed. He thinks Myers for ROR straight up is fair, but I support his contention that it would almost necessitate a contract extension before the trade. Otherwise the risk is so big for Buffalo based on Myers' potential and ROR's one year remaining contract, I'd want to see more (like previously mentioned 2015 2nd).

The kid's going to be a 30 goal scorer quite a few times in his career. But I see what Murray is trying to must accomplish and I standy by his asking price.

Keep in mind that all indications pointed to Murray holding out on moving Myers to Detroit for Tatar or Nyquist in addition to a player and/or pick. Myers is playing really well on our shithawk team, and I think that asking price is reasonable, especially considering Myers' potential and development and maturation this season. I like what ROR is capable of, but I'd need something like ROR and COL's 2nd this year for Myers. That sweetens things with what might be a 35-45 pick, which could be a very good player. I'd almost expect more pieces to be swapped, like some COL schmoe for Meszaros to make it even sweeter for BUF.

Gorges is a #4 stay-at-home defenseman that's being pushed to play top-pair. It's not really unlike Robyn Regehr's usage (and now that I look at the usage charts, they're pretty much qualitatively the same). Gorges' Corsi Relative Quality of Teammates (read how good/bad his linemates are) is team-worst for defensemen. He's playing barely ok, but his stats like points and +/- are terrible, because he's playing the hardest minutes with the weakest help. Meanwhile, Weber and Meszaros are getting sheltered time and still stinking. Meszaros is legitimately bad. Bad play in sheltered minutes, even with among the strongest QoT. I saw him make one decent defensive play tonight, only to be followed by a penalty less than 1.5 seconds later.

Tankin' on a Sunday afternoon. http://youtu.be/wCVVvNLUjTU

Definitely. Time to give the Flyers an old school beatdown or die trying. I'm looking for Nic Deslauriers to have a hell of a game all the way around, regardless of whether he commits first degree murder with no remorse on the ice. The man is a stone cold killer. Who also loves children. And is going to be a great third liner.