IKnowPhysics

The probabilty of trading for Niemi's rights before the deadline to keep him off the UFA market is effectively zero because the Sharks will want to ride him into the playoffs, correct? How about trading for his rights pre-July 1? Too risky? We technically sent a 4th round pick to NYI to do this with Ehrhoff (to replace the 4th that NYI had spent to acquire his rights to unsuccessfully do the same).

There's a reason.

Ah, but that's exactly how Toronto lost that trade. With Phil Kessel, there's no way we don't make the playoffs!

Yeah, we tankin'.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDXYzUlv0S8

I'd like to avoid moving these if possible, with some extra emphasis on that 2016 first. Hopefully not, but it could be a top five pick. The type of pick that gets traded away in a trade for Phil Kessel and turns into Tyler Seguin.

That is a nice connection.

Calm down, Belfour. You don't decide what's good and holy. And if you're worried about the kids and their cellphone data plans, reposting the images in your reply didn't really help them out either.

Kane reacts to being traded out of WInnipeg in February:

I'll post over here too, and although it doesn't directly answer your question, it presents some discount options.

I could do some heavy lifting on this, but at the moment, I'm lazy. So here's the lazy answer: GMs use them and they say they work. Advanced statistics have been around for years. The story of how they got their real traction in baseball is romanticized in Moneyball, but the same revolution occurred for some teams in hockey roughly 2-5 years after the events of Moneyball took place. Not every team/GM used them in some form or another, but almost all teams do now. Even old timers like Ken Hitchcock examine advanced stats after every period. Some NHL teams actively employ full-time stats analysts. The Sabres' Jason Nightingale, Neil McKenney, and Graham Beamish all do focused analytics work. It's likely that the others scouts, AGMs, and GMTM all have a competent understanding of the fundamentals of hockey analytics. GMTM and Kevin Devine may very well be experts at this. How do you analyze hockey? How do you reveal useful aspects of the game that are buried? That may contradict a coach's intuition? The NHL is pretty bad at gathering useful statistics on a nightly basis. I think that'll change moving forward, but for now, there's only a few reliable stats you can use to unearth information about quality of play. The most useful ones available currently are based on shots. Now, when you analyze the usefulness of a stat, statements like this are of zero value. None. That's caveman thinking. The usefulness of a particular statistic or advanced statistic is determined by more analysis and math: how well it correlates to success or losses; scoring chances for or against; goals or goals against; wins or losses. Calculations determine whether a stat is useful. Statistical methods, although complicated, are used to develop new tools and quantities to analyze. It doesn't matter if it sounds like , as long as it has been mathematically shown with sound methods to not be . Advanced statistics and analytics are an attempt at scientifically approaching hockey questions that were previously thought of as quantitative: How good is player x? Was it because of his teammates or opponents, or was he really that good? How do you compare players on different teams? These aren't easy questions to tackle with math, but information can be and is revealed this way. Now, as Corsi's quote suggests, advanced stats should be taken with a grain of salt, because they do have limits. They have very specific meanings and limitations and they should always be understood in context.

We should consider offer sheeting Martin Jones at $3.3M a year for three years. Might be too rich for LA's cap-crunched blood, especially as a backup to Quick. Compensation would be a 2nd round pick. Jones had the 14th best GVT in 2013-14 and 7th best ESSV% at 0.949. If not that, maybe take a run at Cam Talbot, UFA after next year. Talbot was 12th in both GVT and ESSV% last year. Also give some consideration to offer sheeting Calvin Pickard to the same terms as Martin Jones above. Pickard was a 49th overall pick in 2010 and showed promise in relief of an injured Varlamov. He's 9th among goalies this year in GVT, COL wouldn't pay that money to a backup. Maybe also give Scott Darling a look. 6'6" monster that backed up Raanta when Crawford went down. He's had a down and up career and posted good numbers this year. All these guys could be had cheap.

bloooOOOP... BZZZZTSCH!

Kane-sie.

I might show my age a little. 1) Command and Conquer: Red Alert 2) Half Life, including mods Team Fortress Classic and Firearms 3) Battlefield 1942, including mod Desert Combat 4) Goldeneye 5) Grand Theft Auto V 6) Doom II 7) Grand Theft Auto I 8) Papyrus' NASCAR Racing 9 a & b) C&C: Red Alert 2 and C&C: Generals 10) Duke Nukem 3D 11) Ivan "Iron Man" Stewart's Super Off Road (Arcade) 12) NHL '97 13) Terminator 2 (Arcade) To illustrate my top choice, imagine being 12 years old. Internet was dial up. DVDs didn't exist. Concordantly, videos playing a computer monitor were rare. Even sounds were limited to cheapo sound effects. Soundtracks to games were mostly the quality of an SNES, 8 bit audio (I'm looking at you, Doom II). You install the game in DOS, then the cold open starts. Video? The story of eliminating Hitler via time machine unfolds. Your eyes widen, your breathing quickens, your knuckles whiten, then the award-winning audio and industrial metal soundtrack blows your hair back as ###### blows up on screen. I'm surprised I didn't fall out of my chair and piss myself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpvqn0fT1OY Then you spend years playing the greatest real time strategy game of the era.

He's a different player than he was when this thread was started. But, NAW THAT.

I embrace the tank. I'm all-in on the tank. This year. Next year, however, we will need a goalie that is more qualified than Ryan Vinz. Looking at the UFA G list: Niemi Fasth Bryzgalov Ramo Brodeur Neuvirth Harding Gustavsson Enroth Greiss Emery Lindback Ellis LaBarbera That's a pretty mediocre list. No contenders there. Even the RFA G list, outside of maybe Holtby, is weak. Uh.., let's go...umm... NAW DALLAS.

Funeral pyre for this thread, which was started more than three years ago.

GUYS GUYS GUYS CHILL WE STILL HAVE MICHEAL NEUVIRTH

Astats are interesting on Kane: he's 14th in the league in iFenwick/60 (individual shots and missed shots per 60 minutes of player time) and 13th in iCorsi/60 (same with blocked shots added). On a team that needs to shoot more, he adds.

Alright, now who else?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gb0VQTMKNR8 !!!

Alright. The shock is starting to subside. Let's calm it down a bit and try to take an objective view of this, if that's possible. Let's review: Sabres acquire: Evander Kane, signed through 2018 at $5.25 million per season. Zach Bogosian, signed through 2019 at $5.14 million per season. Unsigned prospect Jason Kasdorf. Jets acquire: Tyler Myers, signed through 2019 at $5.5 million per season. Drew Stafford, signed through 2015 at $4 million per season. Joel Armia, signed through 2016 at $894,167 per season. Unsigned prospect Brendan Lemieux. Lowest BUF 1st rounder. Bogosian is a former 3rd overall pick from 2008. He's a seven year NHL veteran. According to this year's player usage, he's a two-way defenseman that plays the toughest minutes among the WPG D. And astats say he succeeds at it. He's been playing 22-24 minutes per game, regularly putting him 3rd-4th on WPG in minutes (behind Bfugliendsan mostly). Hockey's Future noted that at one point he looked like he may underachieve, but only because the 2008 1st round was so star-studded- he would show his worth in the 2011-12 campaign (the first year of hockey back in WPG and Bogosian's career year with 30 points in 65 games). I believe him to be a highly-capable 2nd-pair defenseman on an elite contender or a top-pair defender on a middle-of-the-road team. Kasdorf is a former 6th round pick from 2011. Hockey's Future describes him as a hometown pick for WPG, but his freshman year at RPI appears impressive, as he posted a 1.62GAA and a 0.935%. He helped RPI go to the NCAA regional semifinals with an at-large bid that year. He had a season-ending shoulder injury last year, from which he's worked his way back. I believe him to be an AHL goalie, but he's a few years from developing. His senior year at RPI will unfold the tale. Kane is a former 4th overall pick from 2009. In 2009, Hockey's future described Kane: "A superb skater with excellent acceleration. With his quick release, Kane is a threat to score every time he steps on the ice. NHL scouts say he has pure goal scoring instincts... He handles the physical rigors well, in part because he is a difficult target to lock on to. ... Skill set is reminiscent of a young Mike Modano..." I believe Kane is capable of being an elite NHL forward. Let's break the trade down, so we can swallow it. This is roughly two trades: Myers <-> Bogosian and Kasdorf Fair. Myers' NTC clause would have kicked in this summer, which would have severely limited our trade options and partners if we wanted to move him in the future. Bogosian is a good defenseman with similar terms to Myers. When we considered trading Myers away for picks and prospects, some of us were concerned with maintaining a stout defense, especially over the next two years. This concern is addressed. There's no longer a hole left by the movement of Myers. Bonus: we fill out the goalie stable a little. Kane <-> Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, and 1st: First, Stafford's a rental. But he addresses WPG's winger issue, especially with the loss of Kane, while they make a run at the playoffs. Second, that first rounder, while hard to predict, is probably in the 24-28 range. HF describes Armia: "A budding power forward, Armia is one of Finland’s most heralded young players. He has a rare combination of size and goal-scoring ability, using his 6’3 to shield the puck and soft hands to stickhandle and shoot. He needs to work on his defensive play, especially 1-on-1, and his skating ability." But when we look at Armia's performance in Rochester, he's simply not producing numbers that translate into NHL performance. I know he was injured, but he still has a big question mark or possibly a long development path. When we talk of an accelerated turn-around, it's not clear that Armia, who was supposed to be among the top winger prospects for Buffalo, fits that timeline. EP describes Lemieux: "Perfectly fits the cliche has a player you hate to play against but love to have on your team. Like his father Claude, Brendan will drive the opposing team crazy as he is the perfect agitator. Lemieux also has the ability to burn you offensively as he is a top 5 scorer on Barrie. He showed the ability to both agitate and score in the CHL Top Prospects Game." Moving Lemieux stings a little, because he was drafted in a time when we needed to become tougher to play against. But he's likely not elite talent, and on a contender, he may well end up a third liner- or fourth if he doesn't develop his two-way game at the highest level. Keep in mind that Zack Kassian had better numbers in juniors and presented more tenacity. edit: Now it turns out that Lemiuex may not have been interested in signing. If that's the case, he's absolutely must-sell. This second part of the trade is a real gem of uniqueness. You almost never see it. It is a true "quantity package for quality talent" deal. You have a few months of Stafford, a late 1st, a slow-developing RW prospect, and a Kassian-like prospect, all for a 4th overall winger potentially capable of being elite. Again, that's a rental and unproven prospects for a real NHL talent under contract. It's a gamble that Kane works out as hoped, although GMTM's, apparently been hot about him for years. It's also a gamble that Armia and Lemiueux won't turn around and blow up into a missed opportunity, but I think the odds of that are well-assessed by GMTM. If you consider that Winnipeg was likely asking for a roster player, a top prospect, and a pick, and we give them a rental, two ok prospects, and a pick, I think we're getting a discount on that asking price by a little bit while better meeting Winnipeg's immediate needs than most other teams. Fair. Strategy: From a front office mentality perspective, I love it. It's aggressive. And we need aggressive to turn this heap over. For now, we have to take on faith that it's not aggressively stupid. But GMTM's starting down the road to make this the team he envisions, the team that walks down the path towards playoffs, contention, and parades. He's acquiring the winger he knows he needs next to the centers he has drafted and will draft. He's selling Myers at the highest value he's had so far. He's accelerating the rebuild by turning prospects into players. I didn't think he would start this process until the summertime, but by then, many more teams would have been competing for Kane. Tactics: GMTM just armored the tank. Kane's out for the season and we moved Stafford, who was 3rd on the team in points.

If you guessed "Bryan Murray," uncle of GMTM, you win today's trivia prize.

It's a home game against a team we hate. Let's go for the W. Obligatory. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TbZAua6JJ4