pi2000

So, just for the record, you'd be willing to give the worst +/- player at his position in the NHL an 8-year mega deal? 8-year deals are for guys who check all the boxes. +/- might be a small box, but it's one you still need to check, and with Risto you simply can't check that box. I would prefer he get a 5 year deal, even be willing to go 6, at around $5mil.... go lookup up my previous posts in this thread.

This was a .500 team last season, yet he was still the 3rd worst +/- defenseman in the entire NHL. BUF certainly wasn't the worst team in the league, so you can't use that as an excuse. To clarify my point, I'm not saying Risto is going to be a garbage defenseman, he's still young and will get better. The point I'm trying to make is that you don't give the worst +/- player at his position an 8-year mega deal at this stage of his career. He still has lots to prove, let him grow and pay him when the time is right.

He's had the worst +/- on the team for two years straight... and is a career -68. Yeah, I get it, +/- can be a misleading stat, but you can't ignore a -68. That is the second worst +/- in the ENTIRE LEAGUE over the past 3 years. Only Nail Yakupov is worse at -84, but wait, +/- doesn't mean anything right? Yakupov is a fantastic defensive player. Gimme a break. Sure, Risto has been on some bad teams, but then why doesn't Gorges or Weber or any other Sabres defenseman have nearly as bad a +/-? Nobody is willing to answer that question because they can't.

I completely agree with your assessment of his game last year.

Absolutely. I frequent Ducks and Kings game out here, and attended a Sabres game in Buffalo last season. First thing I noticed was how much darker it was in the FNC than the Honda Center, and especially Staples. That said, Staples is notoriously bright. I played at Staples last season and it felt like being on a stage with someone following you around with a spotlight (I understand now why Kopitar wears a tinted shield).

True, if they lose in regulation, they're out, at least they have a chance now. I'd go with Gaudreau for TNA MVP.... MacKinnon runner up. If FIN and CAN win, it would be CAN/TNA and EUR/SWE in the semi's. My money is on RUS beating FIN, they're just better all around. CAN should win as well, which means CAN/RUS and EUR/SWE in the semi's... i think. So proally a CAN/SWE final, with CAN winning 10-0. So there you have it, don't even need to watch now...

like this?

Was wondering why they didn't pull Gibson to try and win in regulation. How could they not know the situation? Inexcusable.

Caps re-sign Dmitro Orlov

That article (if you can call it that) was hard to read. Brutal.

-2 for the tourney.... the trend continues. Time to throw him in the woodchipper. Seriously tho, I liked his game this tournament was more assertive than he's been in the past.

My intention wasn't to slam Vanek. My point is that he peaked (statistically) at 21-22 years old. How do we know Risto hasn't peaked? Did Vanek slack off a bit after signing the 7-year deal? Probably some... did Myers? yeah likely. Let's not see what happens to Risto by giving him the same term at the same stage of his development. We'd all like to think he's the next Lidstrom, or OEL, or guys like that. But we don't know, and honestly his shortcomings are things like foot speed and agility, hand-eye, etc.. things I'm not convinced he can improve... maybe he can, maybe he does get a step quicker or more fluid. Let me put it this way.... if this is the best Risto will ever be, do you still offer him an 8-year deal?

Risto was a team worst -21 last season, on a .500 team that had a -21 goal differential. Bogo was a -11. Gorges a -7. Those are the only 3 d-men to avg >20min a game. Why is Risto so much worse than Bogo and Gorges? If his poor +/- is due to a ###### D partner, then why doesn't that guy have nearly as bad a +/-? I'm not being sarcastic, I'd really am trying to understand why we shouldn't read so much into Risto's terrible +/- when compared to others on the team. And you can't argue that he's out there all the time, because then he should be out there for goals for as well. I can name probably 5 times as many players who packed it in after signing a max term deal, than those who took their game to the next level. And how many players have career years coming up on their contract year? Too many to mention. You know Vanek and Risto personally? What makes them so much different than each other at 21?

McLellan should cut him some slack. It's widely known that he's still recovering from an acute case of veseyitis, he'll be fine.

He was supposed to be the cornerstone of the franchise, nobody predicted his decline back then, we all wanted him to get that long term deal. He scored 42g in Roch as a 19 year old, 43g in BUF two years later, hovered around the 40g mark during his ELC, then signed a 7 year deal and packed it in. Maybe if we only gave him a 4 or 5 year deal, he'd have maintained his work ethic?

This is where being a GM gets tough. You have to be very careful about who you give term. You have to be absolutely certain those guys are the future core of your franchise if you go max term. We all know how that worked out with Myers and Vanek.

+/- means something, it's a statistic for a reason. You can't make assumptions about players by looking only at their +/-, but it does help paint the picture of who that player is. Do you think OEL would be where he is today if signed for 8-years instead of 6? Maybe, maybe not. If Risto becomes OEL at age 26-27, then the team is like a contender at that point and he wants to stick around, so you open negotiations on an extension before the final year in his deal. This isn't Darcy running the team anymore.... eg, O'Reilly had one year left on his deal when GMTM signed him to an extension. Maybe Risto can get more money somewhere else at that point, but will he want to leave? Did Stamkos leave? Kopitar? Getzlaf? etc.. (not sure why I bolded everything, it) Anyway, like I said above, if he becomes a top defender the team is likely contending, he won't want to leave, we'll sign him to an extension before he even gets to his final year. Will it be costly? Likely, but you'll have a highly motivated player in years 3-4 of his deal so he can maximize his value... it's those years I want to see the Sabres hoisting the Cup, anything after that is just gravy. Yeah, OEL is great, that contract worked well, he has continued to develop knowing a career contract is on the horizon... if he signed 8 years, maybe he's not so motivated as a 22, 23, 24 year old. I'd be OK with 6 years, but no more. OEL has been a near 0 +/- player even on bad ARI teams, he was a -18 the year they tanked, Risto was a -32 that season. Therefore I grant Risto 5 years, not 6.

You can't just look at the contract the length from purely a salary cap standpoint. There is a chance that an 8-year deal at his age will derail his career by removing some incentive to reach his full potential. A 5-year deal keeps him motivated to keep improving... a 3-year deal likely pisses him off, I think he's shown enough that 5 years is fair value and keeps him working hard for his next contract. WRT +/-, I compared top defensemen (by TOI) on teams with similar goal differentials. Risto is by far the worst, I'm still waiting for an explanation why. OEL plays the same minutes on a worse team and is in the single digit range which is respectable. In fact, OEL signed a 6 year $5.5mil deal at age 21, which has worked out well... even he didn't get 8 years.

So they need to compromise :) Which is why I think 5 gets it done. Doesn't mean he's gone after year 5, you resign him well before that if he develops, or you trade him for what would amount to a hefty return. I'll say it again, he hasn't shown enough to warrant an 8-year deal. He's slow on puck retrievals and doesn't have very good hands or quickness, his transitions (backward to forward mostly) are slow and clumsy at times. He gets beat wide quite often... see McDavid last season, or Matthews in the World Cup on Eichel's goal. Yeah, those are some great players, but you need your franchise defenseman to be able to defend those guys. Murray didn't draft him and yes, most folks who know anything about hockey like him as a prospect. He took his game to another level last season, but that needs to continue for another few years before you lock him up for nearly a decade. Dmitri Kalinin is a guy that comes to mind, he too was a nice prospect but never developed... how do you know this isn't the best we'll ever see from Risto? If this is his best, are you still willing to give him 8 years? Yeah I get it, +/- can be considered a team stat, but guess what... Risto is a big part of that team, he's on the ice for those goals against, so you can't just ignore that stat completely. He was a -21 on a .500 team last season.... that's terrible. Let's look at other .500 teams top defensemen (by minutes played).... BUF -21 (team goal diff), Risto -21, Bogo -11 NJD -24, Greene +7, Larsson +15 COL -24, Beauchamin -7, E. Johnson -19 MTL -15, Subban +4, Markov -6 ARI -36, OEL -6, Stone -10 WPG -24, Byfuglien +4, Myers +6, Trouba +10

That's all fantastic stuff, lets not take that away by giving him a career contract at this point. I want to see him contiue to improve and maximize his potential. Give him 5 now, then 8 later if he's worth it... right noe he isn't IMO.

I get the point about the plus minus is not a perfect stat and he's been on some bad teams and such. Yeah, but still when you commit $50mil to a guy you need to have something other than "he has potential" to hang your hat on. I dont care how bad the team is around you, if you're a -68 in less than 200 games, you have to shoulder some of the blame. Guys with potential who have a poor statistical history should not get 8 year deals. That's absurd IMO, maybe it's just me, maybe thats just the modern NHL? I don't know. 8 year deals are for guys who have a proven track record of excellence. Don't get me wrong I really like Risto as a PROSPECT, he's not yet a bona fide supestar, and by giving him that type of deal this early in his career may take away his incentive to fulfill his potential.

Risto has shown what exactly? He's a 21 year old defenseman who is a -68 in < 200 career NHL games, who is produces less offense than Tyler Myers. Sure, let's give him an 8 year deal, sounds reasonable.

They lose a lot of battles, not good.

So why not give every RFA on the team 8 year deals? No downside because you can just trade them right? Lock them up before they blossom?

Disagree. If he regresses you're stuck with his contract for at least 6-7 years. No team is willing to take on that contract in years 1-5. You better be damn sure he's the real deal and not another Tyler Myers.