pi2000

Eichel has that long stick and is effective when he uses it in the d-zone to strip pucks and block passing lanes. He still gets lazy in his own end at times and just floats, but we've all seen it, when he's determined to get the puck back he usually does (eg his goal against CBJ early last season). Besides ROR, who do you think is the best defensive forward on this team and why?

um, no. did you mis-read my comment? ROR has 55 takeways, Eichel 35. sure, we can take the the puck away anywhere, but it's critically important to do so in the d-zone.

The young players are doing well. Risto, Eichel, Kane have really come on the last couple seasons under him. That's a big part of what he was brought in here to do.... teach the kids, and IMO he's been successful in doing so. I think he deserves at least another season with a revamped bottom 6 and some NHL caliber depth on defense to see what he can do. Again, they're 7th in the league in giveaways, which is excellent.... the problem is defending, they can't get the puck back, they rank 24th in takeaways... which tells me they need some defensively skilled players... i don't think it's so much of a system thing as it is a one-on-one inability of this team to generate any takeaways. ROR has 55 takeways (30th in the league), the next best Sabre is Eichel at 35 which ranks 144th! That's awful. Their best defenseman McCabe has 27 takeaways which ranks 44th amongst all defensemen! Again, terrible at defending and getting pucks back. Eveybody talks about how D are always giving the puck away with long stretch passes, well Risto leads our team in giveaways but he ranks only 39th worst among defensemen and he's out there half the game. If Bylsma's system was such garbage, we'd be leading the league in giveaways.

A lot of folks here complain about the Sabre's poor possession stats (Corsi/SAT%) and blame his system specifically as the reason. They also claim (and I would agree) that your chances of playoff success are greater the better your team Corsi/SAT%. That said, in 08-09 when he won his Cup, there were no team Corsi/SAT% numbers kept (at least on nhl.com), so that remains a mystery. However, the years following they did keep track and here's where his PIT ranked: 09-10: 6th 52.10% 101 points lost in 2nd round 10-11: 4th 52.78% 106 points lost in 1st round (7 games to 103 point TBL) 11-12: 3rd 54.24% 108 points lost in 1st round (6 games to 103 point PHI) 12-13: 18th 48.99% 72 points lost in 3rd round (strike shortened season) 13-14: 22nd 44.86% 109 points lost in 2nd round Both times they lost in the first round were to teams who had worse Corsi/SAT% during the season. The last 2 seasons their possession numbers suffered.... lets take a closer look: 11-12: 46.80 SATfor/game 39.39 SATagainst/game (3rd best Corst/SAT% in the league) 12-13: 42.41 SATfor/game 44.17 SATagainst/game 13-14: 40.63 SATfor/game 42.87 SATagainst/game In the strike shortened 12-13 season both Malkin and Crosby missed 10+ games. Malkin missing a quarter of the season. In 13-14 Malkin also missed 20+ games. Now, that alone doesn't explain the drop in possession numbers, but in 12-13 they finished 2nd in the entire NHL in points and won 2 playoff series, eventually losing to BOS in the ECF. In 13-14 they finished 6th in the league with 109 points, won a playoff series and lost in 7 games to the NYR, who evetually went to on met LA in the SCF.

If you watch Eichel's and ROR's line, they don't make those long passes out of the zone, they move up ice together because they have the skills to do so. The 3rd and 4th lines want that puck up and out quickly into the other zone to activate their forecheck. Every team in the league does that. I don't buy the idea that BUF is constantly giving the puck away with rushed stretch passes out of the zone.... in fact, studies show, the Sabres rank 7th BEST in the league in number of giveaways: http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=giveaways That said, they rank 24th in takeaways... those rankings combined tell me they're good at possessing the puck, but the problem is they're unable to get it back when they do lose possession. Translation: they need players who are skilled defensively, can get the puck back, win face-offs, close guys off in their own zone, etc.

It's the grass is always greener mentality... that another coach would be better just because he'd do something different. That's fools gold, you don't look a gift horse in the mouth. If they brought somebody else in and suddenly Jack's numbers plummeted because it's all about possession, not getting pucks up ice, then it would fly in the face of all the Bylsma haters. Bylsma's PIT teams had the 10th best team Corsi% in the league over those 6 seasons... was top 5 a few of those. His teams made the playoffs every year, averaging 105 points per season, escaped out of the 1st round in 4 of the 6 years, made 2 conference finals, and won a Cup. Sure he had Crosby and Malkin, but he had to be doing something right to have that amount of success.

I should clarify... each team must expose at minimum 2 forwards and 1 defenseman who meet the games played requirement (40 this year, or 70+ the last two years combined) and are under contract through 2017-18. D-Lo is already compliant because he played 70 games last season AND he's under contract through 2017-18. That said, BUF currently has 11 forwards who meet the games played requirement, but only 7 are under contract through next season: ROR Kane Okposo Moulson Ennis D-Lo Carrier ....so they must expose at least 2 of the above. Moulson and D-Lo seem like obvious choices.... some would argue Ennis but he's shown flashes of his old self lately but he's not very good defensively so unless he plays top 6, i'd try to move him as part of a deal for a veteran checking C or D help because shots against are too high which hurts our team corsi but others think it's the other way around if had a better puck control strategy it would limit shots against blah blah blah but I digress.... On defense you only need to expose at minimum 1 player. BUF has 5 players who meet both the requirements. Risto Bogo Gorges McCabe Faulk Bogo, duh. For goalies, there is no games played requirement, but they must be under contract through 2017-18, or RFAs after this season. Both Lehner and Ullmark will be RFAs... and Lehner protected so thats that.

Each team must have a minimum number of "eligible" forwards.... and BUF already has reached that number with or without D-Lo. He's still eligible to be picked regardless of how many games he's played.

Looking like a top 8 pick is a certainty. ALWAYS go BPA when drafting that high if you can't trade the pick.

...and they immediately become free agents! Nice deal if you ask me. Can we force Moulson and Bogosian to go?

...meanwhile Babgod and his perfect "system" getting outshot 34-17 by the Caps at home losing 3-0 halfway through the 3rd. Where is your God now Byslma haters? Hahaha haaaa ha ha

Don't remember... he said he retired very young (early 30's IIRC?) and moved to California after making a bundle off Paychex back in the early 80's when they went public.

I'm not saying that BUFs even strength shots-for doesn't need to get better, it does... and it will get better when they spend less time chasing the puck in their own end.. again, when compared to the rest of the league their shot suppression is worse than their shot generation. That should tell you righ there where GMTM needs to focus his attention... he said it himself, he needs to find a way to fix the defense... and IMO he's not just talking about defensemen... If they had a few forwards capable of defending in their own end against other teams top players, they'd spend less time there, and more time in the offensive zone generating shots.

That's horrible news, hope he recovers soon.

Great insight, good read, thanks for that. I played golf a few times with a guy that started Paychex with Golisano. He told me that he never had any interest in building a winning team, it was all just supposed to be a tax-writeoff and means to to keep the team in Buffalo. And if you look at the moves they made during those years... the whole Drury/Briere thing, you can see where that was the case. Drury and Briere were acquired by trade and they were never very highly paid in BUF IIRC. They won during those years because everybody bought in to play their role. Guys like Gaustad, Hecht, Drury filling roles as defensive players, etc.. Campbell making $1.5m on a 2 year bridge deal. Golisano never paid anybody anything significant with any amount of term (except Vanek maybe?). That said, Pegula is willing to pay, so when the time comes when they find the right combination of players on this roster, keeping them together hopefully won't be an issue like it was in years past.

...and 28th in 5v5 Corsi-against per 60... BUF's forward group wouldn't be able to defend my kids squirt team. BUF gives up a lot of shots because they spend a lot of time chasing around in their own zone because collectively, the forward group as a whole, cannot defend worth ######. Get better defensive forwards and suddenly they're spending more time in the offensive zone because they're not chasing in their own end for minutes at a time. I get where you're coming from,.. you're arguing a better offensive strategy would result in more offensive zone time, reducing the amount time spent in their own end, and as a result, organically reducing shots against. That said, when compared to the rest of the league they're much worse at shot suppression than shot generation... that, in and of itself, should be a clear indication of where they need to show an improvement.

I disagree. Match up your best defensive forwards against the top shot generators. Let your top 6 free wheel. Unfortunately there are no shutdown forwards on this team, nobody skilled enough defensively to match up with. Any coach is the wrong coach for this team :P That said, improve the bottom six, get a shutdown C for the third line and suddenly shots against look much much better. Let me ask you this.... with this roster, and any other head coach, do you think shots against would still be an issue? 13th in shots for, offensive zone time is not the issue.

13th in shots for per game. 30th in shots against. It doesn't take a genius to figure out they need better defensive forwards.

You guys are cracking me up. PIT wins a Cup and it's all because of Crosby and Malkin. They don't win a Cup with Crosby and Malkin in the years following and it's all Bylsma's fault.

I stand corrected. That said, my eyes tell me BUF sucks at shot blocking. However (I looked it up before, I'm too lazy right now), they rank in the top half of the league in block shots per game... which I would argue is because they allow a ton of shots. A more telling stat would be shots blocked %... which I would imagine BUF is near the bottom. That said, to take the next step, they need to work on their shot suppression, and that will come by getting better defensive players in their bottom six. Gionta, Moulson, Ennis are not defensively skilled players, and I would argue neither are Girgensons or Foligno. It's a hot mess at the moment.

..and guess which team allowed the most shots against the past 3 seasons... Since Dan took over they moved from 30th in shot for per game to 13th this season... that's a huge improvement, and if you argue that's because of Eichel, Kane, etc., then you also have to agree that shot suppression is suffering because of players. That's you're entire Corsi right there. Until they lower their shots against per game, they're going to languish in the bottom half of the league.

...and #10 :P

How many shots you allow is 50% of the Corsi algorithm. To have good possession numbers you need players who can prevent shots on net... that starts with winning face-offs, blocking shots, shutting down other teams top shot generating line. BUF is supremely inept at defending.. and my eyes tell me it's not because of the "system", it's the players who are too slow, unwilling to block shots, can't win faceoffs.. etc.. intangible skills that aren't a reflection of coaching.

Over his 6 year reign in PIT, they had the 10th best Corsi% in the entire league during that time span.

No team has 3 equal lines. You match them up against the biggest threats.... Pavelski, Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin... you choose a few players to neutralize. Larsson and shutdown shouldn't be in the same sentence... ugh.