pi2000

He has a NMC so he's auto-protected IIRC.

No. Eichel is just a kid breaking into the league, not somebody you take orders from.

Replace as much of the 3rd and 4th line with some high energy defensively responsible players. That will ignite a fire under the top 6 and get this team going in the right direction. Teams feed off those types of players and BUF doesn't have any at the moment which is why they look flat pretty much all the time.

Why wouldn't COL sign Butcher? He's a stud IMO. Found this... "A year ago, when Butcher was an alternate captain for DU at the Frozen Four in Tampa, Fla., the Avs had a team executive inform Butcher’s family adviser (agent) that the player would not be signed by the club. The message was believed to have originated with Patrick Roy, the former Avs coach and front-office executive who was not interested in using a contract for a 5-foot-10, 180-pound defenseman." ...so I'd expect him to sign with COL, but the longer this drags out, the more likely it becomes a Veseyian type of ordeal since he'd become a UFA Aug 15th if he doesn't sign by then. He'd be a top 4 guy right off the bat IMO. Again, BUF has 2 second round and 2 third round picks, would you part with one to acquire his rights?

Passengers: Bogosian McCabe Girgensons Foligno Moulson Ennis DLo Kulikov Franson Reinhart Larsson Rodrigues You can tell by the body language after getting scored on. The guys I listed above, just kinda look down at the ice and skate over the bench like no big deal that's OK we messed up somewhere it happens that's fine. I want to see stick slammed on the ice, guys yelling at each other, talking it over on the bench, figuring out. That doesn't happen with any of the above group. They're resigned to the fact they're going to lose some games and they seem to be OK with it. Reinhart was a terrible junior team, the only team success he's ever had is the world juniors. You have to hate losing more than you like winning to have team success, and there's only maybe a handful of guys on this team who seem like they really hate to lose in this league.

We've noticed that our team in general is pretty good at limiting scoring opportunities from the slot and from the crease area relative to the rest of the league, while we allow more shots than usual from the point area in exchange. (Good eye, We've.) Well, that ability breaks down with Jack on the ice. Teams shoot a ###### ton from the slot while he's out there, which is often a spot that you see the center. Either Jack is cheating, or he just doesn't know how to effectively pick up players and take away their shot or tie them up. Perhaps he has trouble reading the play, or is unwilling to engage physically. I can sum it up for you in one individual statistic.... -13

It's actually working for me atm.

As much as I've bagged on Gorges over the past few years, I'd be OK keeping him around as a 6th/7th guy. Nope. that...... not at $3.9m. Ennis can stay, I like his game the last few weeks.. but he's their worst cost per point player by a wide margin.... so I could go either way on him. Depends on the return. Bogo is definitely one of those guys Eichel is talking about. If GMTM can somehow get Bogo and Moulson off the books ($10mil) this summer, I'll consider it a successful offseason.

Has any other team in the history sport said otherwise? I've heard players talk when they don't like their coach... they say things like "Whatever we're doing isn't working" ...."the effort is there, we're just not getting the results we want" or "it's not my job to evaluate him, that's the GMs job, blah blah blah..." I'm not sure i heard anything like that.... maybe the first one "Whatever we're doing isn't working"... I think Eichel said that the other day?

Dorsia? How does that even work? They call ahead and ask if Lehner is there, and then cancel their res? I'd add Foligno and Girgensons to that list of guys he was talking about. Maybe even Samson.... being late for team meetings shows lack of commitment. Yep. Fan expectations were way out of line going into this season. IMO 2015-16 was a fluke, riding high on the Eichel wave. They've come down off that high and never got right mentally after he came back. Still a lot of dead weight to shed. That said, I didn't hear a single player remotely suggest the issue was with Bylsma. In fact, I heard quite the opposite. How can there be such a disconnect between players and fans? Hahaha.

smart

No worries Flagg, I like the fact we can exchange opinions in a civil manner without insulting eachother. Nothing you've said has offended me in any way shape or form.

- I was wrong about Moulson, thought he would resurrect his career and regain his scoring touch. He's dead weight. - I was wrong about Gorges being the worst d-man on this team. - I was wrong about Kulikov, expected a lot more from him. - I had no idea Bogosian would nosedive so badly. That play he made last night on MTL's goal was absolutely brutal. Is it possible to lose awareness as you gain experience? - I was wrong about Ennis, really thought he was going to be a difference maker. - I was NOT wrong about Matthews. And I still think he falls from glory once his ELC expires. - I was wrong about Vesey... or was I? Regardless, he's still a . That said, I did say before the season started that the success of this team would ride on guys like Ennis, Moulson, and Girgensons. They failed... and the team failed.

1) Baby steps. With a lethal PP, if they can reduce shots against (at even strength), they'll get more better than if they just focus on improving even strength shots for. The best offense is a good defense. 2) IMO a chip-in isn't unsuccessful if you don't recover the puck. That's what this whole discussion boils down to. A strong forecheck takes it's toll on the defense, leading to breakdowns and scoring chances. I do agree that Corsi% is a good predictor of playoff success in general, but there are exceptions... otherwise the team with the better Corsi would always win, and that's not the case. Do you happen to know what the overall winning % is for teams with possession stats superior to their opposition? 3) Fine. 4) In the Sabres case, having another guy who can take d-zone draws and eat up PK minutes besides ROR will have a greater impact than most people think. 5) 6) So on one hand you're arguing there isn't enough difference in giveaway/takeaway stats between teams to have a make a meaningful difference, yet you're harping the fact that each arena tracks stats slightly differently. Which is it? You want a meaningful correlation? 8 of the top 10 teams in takeaways are in the playoffs and only 1 of the bottom 10 is in the playoffs. That's a significantly better indicator for success than Corsi/SAT% where only 6 of the top 10 are in the playoffs, and 3 of the bottom 10 are in. WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW FLAGGMAAAAANNNNNNN .....HAHAHhahahaaaahahahahahahah 7) I'll say this, takeaways are important, BUF sucks at it, sucks really bad.. very bad. That's one area I want to see them improve next season, and IMO that starts with better defensively aware players.... and I will say this... I don't think the lack of takeaways is ENTIRELY on the players... they play a very very passive defense in their own end, they pretty much play man-to-man near the puck and zone away from it. That said, I don't know how much of that is due to Bylsma not trusting the players to win one-on-one battles? Or if it's just that the players are incapable of being agressive in their d-zone without giving up grade A opportunities. When you look at scoring chances... BUF is normally on par with their opposition... I don't know if there's a league wide stat for that, and yeah it's highly subjective... but I'd wager BUF has a pretty high percentage of shots which are considered scoring chances vs their opposition... they give up a lot of shots, but typically not a whole lot in prime scoring areas... which makes them look bad Corsi wise, but Corsi doesn't factor in shot quality so it can be a misleading stat, a stat that appears worse for BUF than it really is (if you tracked scoring chances vs shot attempts).

That's not always true. Eichel was benched a while ago because he tried to keep the puck on his stick at the wrong place and wrong time. As one of my coaches used to say... move the puck, move your feet. That said, I'm fine with skilled guys trying to dangle but there's a time and a place for it, Eichel is still figuring that out. When you have a team with some big fast wingers you want to wear the other team down with your forecheck. The Sabres first goal last night was created by D-Lo. He was a wrecking ball and caused the d-man to turnover the puck because he heard his footsteps.... Eichel picks off the errant pass and we all know what happened next. Guys like Bailey, Kane, Baptiste, Okposo to an extent, are big fast wingers that can pressure the puck.... you ask those guys to dump and chase most of the time because it's what they're good at and it creates scoring opportunities as the game wears on. Trying to carry the puck in every single time makes it very very easy on the defense, they don't have to turn and chase pucks and get hit, they just back in and eliminate shot and passing lanes, simple. Again there's not one blanket strategy, you have to read and react, if you have the time and space, sure carry it in, if you're a skill guy and going 1-on-1 against a bottom pairing guy, yeah try and create something, otherwise make the smart play and live to fight another day. Special teams are part of the game, why would you remove it? And it's a part of the game BUF excels at. I don't see why you shouldn't count those shots towards their total... every team does. Your picking out whatever data fits your narrative.... "well if we remove this stat, and this stat and look at only this single thing on it's own... Bylsma sucks!" I know you've probably already mentioned this in some other thread, but what do you consider a "successful" chip-in? In my mind a successful chip-in is to facilitate a change or make the defenseman turn skate and take a hit or create a turnover or relieve pressure. I those plays a failure when the other team gets an easy retrieval and clean breakout without the threat of physical punishment or stress. Look at the play DLo made just last night. He was punishing the dmen on chip-ins every chance he got.... which created enough stress that they eventually made an errant pass right to Eichel's stick and puck ends up in the back of their net. It was in my previous post... their league ranking for shots against is worse than their shots for ranking. Improve your weakness. Even strength only you say? Well, when evaluating the team I prefer to take a more holistic view. When the team is at the bottom of the league in takeways, losing possession immediately off the face-off is a big deal. Imagine if they had a 3rd or 4th line checking center who has defensive zone and face-off skills... that would cut ROR's minutes down significantly and allow him to flourish late into games and the be more effective down the stretch. Currently, their bottom 6 is the leftover parts of the tank year's top 6. They're mediocre offensive players who don't know how to defend 1-on-1... and that's evident by the takeaway statistics. I appreciate your effort to analyze the % of this that and the other thing. But can I ask over what stretch of games did you perform this analysis? Unless you look at 15-20 games, you're not getting the big picture... as gameplans change depending on personnel and who you're matched up against... how the game is progressing, if they're winning or losing, how far behind are they, etc... Many many variables that need to be taken into account, I'm assuming you've fleshed all those out. And anybody can pick and choose what screenshots from a game match their narrative and build a case. I could just as easily build a case to show they support the puck and exit the zone as a group. If you're questioning the validity of the underlying data, then it's a lost cause and I'm just wasting my breath. Takeaways reduce shots attempts against. It's that simple. I counted 187 passes that were 5 feet or less made by BUF players in last night's game compared to 143 for MTL.

It's gotta be in back of the players minds, understandable they're not all there mentally.

Nor should they. Stretch passes that are intercepted are counted as giveaways. A stretch and chip-in is a good hockey play, it flips the ice, allows for changes, creates forecheck opportunities, etc.. You can't just have a blanket system that says carry the puck in.. It depends on who those players are. Because a turnover within 6ft of the blue-line is a big no-no, we're taught that from peewees. Either get it deep, or if you have the speed and skill, carry it in. In your expert opinion, why do they rank near the bottom of the league in takeaways, do you think that's important, and how would you improve that? And instead of attacking my method of analysis, why don't you (in you're own words) "pick apart my post, show me where I'm wrong". :P

and your excuse is what... because Bylsma? But when he does something good, or our young players develop... it's just because they would have done that anyway?

How does that compare with his minutes played? A few comments on ROR.... - he hasn't been 100% healthy this season, he looks like he's laboring out there at times, and had that groin problem early in the year iirc. - he's overworked because he has to fill too many rolls: scoring forward (1st PP unit), face-off specialist, 1st PK unit and defensive specialist. Due to lack of defensively skilled players on this roster, he's overworked and worn down by game 50 which is also partly due to the next item... - he's a vegetarian and therefore has a low red blood cell count because of a lack of iron (used by hemoglobin for oxygen transport) in his diet, so his aerobic endurance suffers and he can't recover as quickly between games

Eichel has that long stick and is effective when he uses it in the d-zone to strip pucks and block passing lanes. He still gets lazy in his own end at times and just floats, but we've all seen it, when he's determined to get the puck back he usually does (eg his goal against CBJ early last season). Besides ROR, who do you think is the best defensive forward on this team and why?

um, no. did you mis-read my comment? ROR has 55 takeways, Eichel 35. sure, we can take the the puck away anywhere, but it's critically important to do so in the d-zone.

The young players are doing well. Risto, Eichel, Kane have really come on the last couple seasons under him. That's a big part of what he was brought in here to do.... teach the kids, and IMO he's been successful in doing so. I think he deserves at least another season with a revamped bottom 6 and some NHL caliber depth on defense to see what he can do. Again, they're 7th in the league in giveaways, which is excellent.... the problem is defending, they can't get the puck back, they rank 24th in takeaways... which tells me they need some defensively skilled players... i don't think it's so much of a system thing as it is a one-on-one inability of this team to generate any takeaways. ROR has 55 takeways (30th in the league), the next best Sabre is Eichel at 35 which ranks 144th! That's awful. Their best defenseman McCabe has 27 takeaways which ranks 44th amongst all defensemen! Again, terrible at defending and getting pucks back. Eveybody talks about how D are always giving the puck away with long stretch passes, well Risto leads our team in giveaways but he ranks only 39th worst among defensemen and he's out there half the game. If Bylsma's system was such garbage, we'd be leading the league in giveaways.

A lot of folks here complain about the Sabre's poor possession stats (Corsi/SAT%) and blame his system specifically as the reason. They also claim (and I would agree) that your chances of playoff success are greater the better your team Corsi/SAT%. That said, in 08-09 when he won his Cup, there were no team Corsi/SAT% numbers kept (at least on nhl.com), so that remains a mystery. However, the years following they did keep track and here's where his PIT ranked: 09-10: 6th 52.10% 101 points lost in 2nd round 10-11: 4th 52.78% 106 points lost in 1st round (7 games to 103 point TBL) 11-12: 3rd 54.24% 108 points lost in 1st round (6 games to 103 point PHI) 12-13: 18th 48.99% 72 points lost in 3rd round (strike shortened season) 13-14: 22nd 44.86% 109 points lost in 2nd round Both times they lost in the first round were to teams who had worse Corsi/SAT% during the season. The last 2 seasons their possession numbers suffered.... lets take a closer look: 11-12: 46.80 SATfor/game 39.39 SATagainst/game (3rd best Corst/SAT% in the league) 12-13: 42.41 SATfor/game 44.17 SATagainst/game 13-14: 40.63 SATfor/game 42.87 SATagainst/game In the strike shortened 12-13 season both Malkin and Crosby missed 10+ games. Malkin missing a quarter of the season. In 13-14 Malkin also missed 20+ games. Now, that alone doesn't explain the drop in possession numbers, but in 12-13 they finished 2nd in the entire NHL in points and won 2 playoff series, eventually losing to BOS in the ECF. In 13-14 they finished 6th in the league with 109 points, won a playoff series and lost in 7 games to the NYR, who evetually went to on met LA in the SCF.

If you watch Eichel's and ROR's line, they don't make those long passes out of the zone, they move up ice together because they have the skills to do so. The 3rd and 4th lines want that puck up and out quickly into the other zone to activate their forecheck. Every team in the league does that. I don't buy the idea that BUF is constantly giving the puck away with rushed stretch passes out of the zone.... in fact, studies show, the Sabres rank 7th BEST in the league in number of giveaways: http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=giveaways That said, they rank 24th in takeaways... those rankings combined tell me they're good at possessing the puck, but the problem is they're unable to get it back when they do lose possession. Translation: they need players who are skilled defensively, can get the puck back, win face-offs, close guys off in their own zone, etc.

It's the grass is always greener mentality... that another coach would be better just because he'd do something different. That's fools gold, you don't look a gift horse in the mouth. If they brought somebody else in and suddenly Jack's numbers plummeted because it's all about possession, not getting pucks up ice, then it would fly in the face of all the Bylsma haters. Bylsma's PIT teams had the 10th best team Corsi% in the league over those 6 seasons... was top 5 a few of those. His teams made the playoffs every year, averaging 105 points per season, escaped out of the 1st round in 4 of the 6 years, made 2 conference finals, and won a Cup. Sure he had Crosby and Malkin, but he had to be doing something right to have that amount of success.