Porous Five Hole

Sabres wilt and not a good night down on the farm either. Levi called out after the Amerks get blown out on Wednesday night. https://pickinsplinters.com/2025/11/12/leone-after-pulling-levi-in-amerks-loss-we-need-a-save/?fbclid=IwZnRzaAOCQD5leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEel_BUivndXyIMoN2eB8DC9TOXegfMjnaolg6d1znvjuQkI9dk6achz7baVyc_aem__sgsJ1gVD8KpDiGXUCottg

All due respect to Shakir, he’s not a boundary receiver. He’s a lot more Cole Beasley than he is Justin Jefferson. To your suggestion to just run guys deep down the field, that only creates space if defenses have to defend it with MORE than man coverage. The rotation to keep them fresh isn’t relevant. As I said before, because the Bills have nothing deep and outside, opposing defenses compress the field against Buffalo both vertically and horizontally. This is why Shakir and Kincaid are having pedestrian seasons…they are drawing extra defenders (or in the case of the Miami game, hi lo zone). Then, throw in the following tendencies the Bills offense has into the mix, and it is easier to see why they’re having less success lately: 1. The Bills first down run rate is higher than 30 other NFL offenses. Sure, Cook is good, but talk about keeping your Ferrari (Josh Allen) in the garage. 2. Tipping your hand with scheme and play calling. Did you know the Bills pass 80% of the time from shotgun formation and run more than 80% from under center? Sure, you usually pass from shotgun formation, but the league knows the Bills extreme tendencies and are guessing correctly 80% of the time. That’s on the OC. 3. Tipping your hand with personnel. The Bills pass the ball about 80% of the time that Kincaid is on the field. It is a lot easier to defend the Bills with ideal personnel when the opposing D knows the play type and can respond with the correct personnel package. I think the Bills will mix up play calling and can still score 30 because Josh is that good. But everything is much harder when defenses are able to minimize the field because our outside receivers may be the worst in the NFL.

If he does, I’ll buy his jersey

Even more irritating than Kozak being in the top six is Peyton freakin Krebs being nothing more than a 4C. Might be a mix of poor development management & just not good enough, but yeesh that Eichel trade looks even worse now knowing he’s developed into an NHL non-factor. It’s time to try someone else next season.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2025/11/flames-place-justin-kirkland-on-waivers.html 29 year old fringe NHLer who plays center. I would claim and give him a five game look and push Östlund back down to Rochester where he should be.

Kozak as a second line center.

Now that I spent like an hour on my other post, please allow me to turn my attention to Keon Coleman. Pretty simple for me. Keon was a bad pick. He’s shown to be slow, average at the catch point, and his reputation as a non-separator in college has proven true. Now you throw in the McDermott press conference comments, the McDermott disciplinarian benching(s), and the observed effort level on some plays, and there’s not much left to say. Beane whiffed and I think the Bills are done with him. I expect Keon will be moved in the offseason for a 6th or 7th round pick, à la Elam from last offseason.

First off, this has nothing to do with Keon v Ladd for me. I don’t care about that comparison. Mostly because their roles are different. Ladd is a slot receiver and Keon is a field or boundary receiver. I don’t think you’re considering this. It is the thesis to this whole thing for me. Of the Bills WR group, what do they not do well? The answer is there is no one on the outside who is a deep threat. Most of the deep balls that Josh has thrown are 1) after a scramble extending the play, or 2) a “50/50” ball to Keon. I quote 50/50 because Keon does not catch half of them. You said Palmer & Samual can do this. They cannot consistently do this. While Palmer’s average depth of target is 15 yards (which is very good), he’s averaging two receptions a game. He’s averaging 39 yards a game (stats are from actual games played and ignoring the games he’s missed). And now he’s hurt. It’s not cutting it. Samuel’s average depth of target is 4.9 yards. He has no business on the outside or deep. Back to scheme and role for me. Ladd McConkey doesn't solve this team's biggest issue which is the Bills don't threaten deep and outside. Just because he has good stats doesn’t mean he’s what the Bills actually need. If Khalil Shakir was the biggest problem in the WR room, then I would have agreed with you. But he’s not. Ladd lined up in the slot 2/3 of the time in 2024. Everything I can tell is this has not changed much. The scheme fact I need to reiterate is because the Bills have nothing deep and outside, opposing defenses compress the field against Buffalo both vertically and horizontally. The field to defend shrinks. And we are a lot easier to defend because of it. Drop Ladd on the Bills roster right now and he’s running routes directly into the strength of the scheme of opposing defenses/double coverage. You told me to stop overthinking it. “He gets open” is true and McConkey would be an upgrade over Shakir, but that’s who he would replace. Not Keon. So my conclusion is while McConkey’s average depth of target is double Shakir’s, it still doesn’t fix the Bills offensive problems. Maybe Ladd develops into a Justin Jefferson over time and sheds the slot. But he’s not doing that yet. BTW: Ladd: 51 receptions for 631 yards, averaging 12 yards a play, 4 TDs in 10 games. Shakir: 45 receptions for 457 yards, averaging 10 yards a play, 3 TDs in 9 games.

Looking at numbers doesn’t define a role. McConkey is a better football player than Keon, but he doesn’t do the thing the Bills need well. lol to your Palmer and Samuel comment. Agree to disagree.

I agree that Ladd was a better pick than Keon. but McConkey doesn't solve this team's biggest problem at the WR position. The Bills biggest problem is there is no one who is a threat deep and outside. Defenses can compress the field against us both vertically and horizontally. This is killing the Bills offense. So yea, Ladd is a better football player than Keon, but neither do any of the things this offense really needs.

A nice week for the Abandoned Trash

I’m not overthinking this. His heart and brain are focused on something other than his job right now, so he’s tending to that. Sorry to be blunt, but Rasmus watched his soulmate die. CPR means no heartbeat and no breathing. From his statement: ”While on vacation in France early this summer, Carolina began to feel sick for a few days, which quickly turned into her experiencing major heart failure. Fortunately, she received CPR on multiple occasions, and up to a couple of hours at a time to keep her alive, which ultimately saved her life.” ”She was transferred to a hospital where she remained on life support for weeks before she was a beneficiary of a heart transplant while still in France.” Hockey is just a game. I hope he gets his heart and head right and I hope he takes as long as he needs.

You cannot be serious.

It could also be Zac Jones if they’re looking for offense. He has 13 assists in 11 GP so far. The Russians aren’t ready.

Amerks (7-4-0-0) back at it against the baby Pens (8-2-1-0) at home tonight, who have the most points in the Eastern Conference. I didn’t realize they were short a forward on Wednesday due to the Sabres call ups and were down to ten forwards mid-game when Savage went out with an injury. Metsa ended up alternating shifts as a forward. Matteo Costantini has been called up from Jacksonville (Drafted in 2020, Round 5). No announcement on who gets the crease tonight. Amerks play next in Hershey on Sunday.

Also, Kesselring is not practicing this morning. Two big hits to the blue line. Well wishes to Ras and fam.

If anyone is a Van Halen fan, you may appreciate this new song from Big Wreck.

What he needs is to not play on a top line with 160 pound rookies.

Palm trees and taxes

I understand not wanting to break up Tuch-McCleod-Doan, but throwing Tage with two rookies was a terrible idea. Other than Doan, who is “going” right now? It’s hard to watch. Everyone is a half a second late all over the place. Nothing is smooth and the subtle plays are routinely bobbled. No juice. The blue line was fine tonight, but the Sabres need more than just ‘fine’ given the forward injuries. Quinn deserves the heat he’s getting, but I’m annoyed with Krebs. At this point, he’s a guy who we are supposed to be able to move up the lineup when it is warranted, and he’s just a no show. He’s not a prospect any longer. And we are getting absolutely nothing from him. Just don’t know what to say about UPL. That soft second goal was a killer tonight. Lindy has to know he’s not good enough. I hope he still has enough pride left to let UPL rot for a while. It’s a good time to go on a road trip and break up the crappy routine we are in.

I thought I was clear in saying the Sabres already have everyone viable lol But I agree with you.

Agree he is a waste of a roster spot, but there’s no one left to bring up. The Sabres already have Rosen, Östlund, and Dunne. That also assumes Kozak is a full time NHLer. There’s nothing left in Rochester other than kids who aren’t ready (Helenius 19 years old & Wahlberg 20 years old) or AHL vets with no NHL viability. It’s bare. If Geertson was currently in Rochester, he would be the next in line.

Preview of tonight’s game: https://www.amerks.com/news/detail/game-preview-amerks-fight-crunch-for-top-spot-in-north-division Something that caught my eye from the preview, “After three straight seasons finishing in the bottom six of the league for penalty minutes, the Amerks enter this week leading the Eastern Conference with 165 through 10 games. A pair of defensemen are accountable for nearly a third of those PIM, with Nikita Novikov (26) and Vsevolod Komarov (25) dealing out punishment.”

Greenway has been helpful since he’s been back. Not a top line guy, but someone who finishes checks and makes this team harder to play against. He kills penalties well and helps hold things together. Need him to contribute this until the injuries sort themselves out.