Porous Five Hole

Tage 🤪

Pretty sick. That was a dart.

Wow a drive by after nine years. I am feeling beaten down. I can’t think about the tank any longer. I’m only looking forward.

Helenius with an hattie and Levi with his league-leading seventh shutout. Amerks win 4-0.

An outstanding night at the Town Ballroom!

Relevant to this convo about offer sheets are the numbers. Here are the most likely tiers and draft compensation: $4,580,917 - $6,871,3741 1st-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick $6,871,374 - $9,161,8341 1st-round pick, 1 2nd-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick I think you instantly match anything for JJP in either tier. The Sabres can offset cap by bringing up a plethora of Amerks prospects to offset. It may mean moving other guys, but the Sabres are not susceptible to an impossible to match scenario.

Is that because you don’t believe in GMKA? If that, then I agree. Osmosis won’t make this team “better” enough to win the whole damn thing. Not being within the top five as the youngest team in hockey will eventually help, so a playoff birth in the future is possible. But is that the goal? Not to me. We need a GM with experience whose auto-response is not let’s run it back.

Thumbs down from me because I’m a Levi truther. He’s got IT. I truly believe that. Sure I could be wrong and he’s doomed at the NHL level due to his size. He would need to be the 1% of the elite level…and I think he has it in him. Remember, he’s still only 23. His time might not be 2025-26 and so it is still UPL’s crease as G1 next year (thanks Kevyn). But I predict Levi is the long term answer.

What do you mean by this?

May I assume you’ve watched the majority of his Amerks games in 24-25? 37 GP, 6 shutouts, 2.22 GAA, 9.18 save percentage. Not anointing him G1 in Buffalo next year, but get outta here with sOfT gOaLs. He also turned 23 in December. I am missing context from your snarky reply lol UPL is about three years older and those are a big three years of development. Levi’s college stats are better than UPL’s junior stats. Levi’s AHL stats are FAR better than UPL’s AHL stats. I agree that Levi sucked in Buffalo out of the gate in 2024, but it seems like you’re assuming a 22 year old goalie (turned 23 in Dec) isn’t expected to continue to improve?

Man moves to new town and becomes a fan of a local radio station and the local team. That tracks.

You’re right, it’s both. In this five wins in six game run, the Sabres PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) is third in NHL in that span, 1.090. That came from a Sabre Report tweet.

I am thinking both special teams PP/PK via coaching is a logical way to improve (5 on 5 scoring is already a team strength), but Norris can help with that and he’s already here. We moved for him for the dead weight of Dylan. Great trade. It will be difficult to do more with less. I would roll with Norris and improve in other ways (like trading Byram for different defensive help).

I’m happy too, but it doesn’t mean it is sustainable.

So help me god if the Sabres base their late season positive results on “we are close” versus the Reimer lightning in a bottle performance bump. Goaltending improvement (along with one more top six forward and one competent top four D—buy out Muel as under 26 buyout & trade Byram to help the cause) has to happen. We cannot run it back.

I appreciate the minutes analysis by @mjd1001 above. My take isn’t about his minutes in 2024-25 because I think that will evolve with Tage & Norris over time. I watched McLeod in Edmonton. His rise is tough to quantify. I am glad he did more for Buffalo than skate 100mph into the corner with the puck, cuz that’s what it looked like for the Oilers. He always had the upside but never showed it. Maybe he figured it out at age 26 and we can plan on this (20G, great defensively) as a baseline for future years, but I would not sign him for longer than two years because I need to see more before I hand out a 4-6 year deal. I’m hopeful, but cautious on this player. Good trade, but let’s not hand out a long term deal because he wants to “be here.” If he needs a one year deal because he’s a UFA in twelve months, I’m rolling the dice with a RFA bridge verses a long term deal.

I want to support you on this. In his recent run, Reimer has 29 goals against and 5 goals saved above expected good for 12th out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s pretty good. Most recently, UPL has 41 goals against and -10 goals saved above expected good for 71st out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s really bad. The Sabres should not put too much stock into their players “learning how to win” during these late meaningless games when the only thing that’s really changed is that their goalie is playing well.

Goodness, those blue uniforms and Freeze Frame make my Rochesterian heart sing

Division rival Laval will likely have the one seed overall in the AHL playoffs, but the Amerks are trending for the second best record in the league. It’s gonna be a heck of a round two matchup. My goal is to get to a road playoff game in Laval. It would help the Amerks if Montreal makes the playoff and goes on to the second round. Either way, in Levi we trust.

The amount that you’re correct with this take should not be understated.

In news around the Eastern Conference, the Sabres just passed the Bruins in the standings. Please dot “the Sabres will have a better record than the Bruins” on your bingo card.

Östlund scored again (18) and then assisted on Murray’s 25th goal this year. Amerks are up 2-1 after two.

So your plan is to give away UPL for free and not replace him. Got it. At least I know not to quote you or reply to you as a logical conversation person. But we agree, UPL sucks.

Fine, let’s play it out as you want. I’m not a UPL guy, so I can pick up what you’re putting down. But the problem becomes what’s the plan if you give this guy away for nothing? Reimer is an old UFA and not the answer. I’m a Levi truther, but I’m not ready to insert him as an everyday G1. So what do you do in net to make this team a playoff team next year? Long story short, the Sabres have backed themselves into a corner where they need UPL to bounce back. You can rant and rave that Buffalo needs to move on from UPL, and I’ll agree with you. What’s your plan? Who are you signing to be G1 in 2025-26? Reasonable options please. Or would you just prefer to yell and scream without a meaningful path forward? Please provide a rational plan or else I’ll just assume you are screaming into the wind.

Ok so you were serious. His salary is tied for 23rd highest among goalies and he’s only 25 years old. The Sabres defense and special teams suck. Other teams would get UPL right pretty quick. I hated the contract and I’m not defending his play. I’m just saying it is a downright terrible idea to waive him.