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Everything posted by PerreaultForever
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Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
Oh come on, I mentioned Marchand earlier as a perfect example of a little guy who was "pound for pound as strong as anyone". Briere was really strong for his size too, but these guys are outliers and exceptions to the general rule. -
Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
I gotcha, and I was alluding to that in the last part. I would think you need a better breakdown of the stats by taking out the goons and big bodies brought in just for that reason. Little guys never make the NHL as tough guys, they are only fast and skilled but big guys can be there as tough guys as well as skill guys. So if you take a half dozen small guys and a half dozen big guys the stats will tell you the small guys put up more points on average even if a few of those big guys are bigger producers. I doubt it's anything more complicated than that. As I was saying, small guys have to be fast and skilled or they never get in the NHL. Big guys excel if they are skilled but can also make the league as tough guys with less skill. Does that not explain the math? I think it does but am open to being proved wrong. -
Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
Well, firstly, keep in mind I'm not talking about producing, I'm talking about winning, and a winning team needs to be a balanced team. Second, "bigger" isn't really the thing, rather stronger. Already had to argue past the semantic points and want to stress it's never just about size or height. It's strength. Now as for producing, there are big strong producers. Ovechkin is a beast. Crosby isn't big, but pound for pound he is strong and quite powerful. Getzlaf in his prime was maybe the perfect combination of size, strength, grit and skill. Marchand is a little guy, but I'd bet pound for pound he's about the toughest in the league and he positions himself and leverages his body perfectly driving right past and through bigger defenders. There's no real point in listing more names but there are lots. As for the smaller guys being producers, yes, they are, in the fair weather, but they disappear in the playoffs if they aren't in the tough strong group. Mitch Marner for example. In the tough games, Draisaitl usually is bigger impact than McDavid . That is a size and strength issue. Why are smaller guys often more skillful? Probably because they have to be or they never make it to the NHL. -
Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
You just don't get it. That comment that was made asking if you thought the games took place in your computer had me in stitches cause that's it. You just don't understand the game on the ice. This has absolutely nothing to do with 80s hockey, that's a convenient trope you keep using to imply out of touch with the modern game and it means nothing. Everyone knows the game is different now but it's still physical and it's still played with the body and it always will be. It ain't figure skating and until the league decides to start calling every little touch McDavid whines for it'll be the same on that level. You need to go watch the Calgary game again slowly and carefully. There's no fights, there's a handful of hits but aside from Lucic pasting Miller they didn't really lay into us because they didn't need to. But now pay attention and go watch this carefully.............. Watch how the Calgary players drive the play and maintain possession by using their bodies and shielding the puck keeping their own body between the defender and the puck time and time again. It's a strength and leverage thing. It's not 80s hockey, in the 80s you be hooked or checked out of the play but in today's game with today's rules it's how bigger and stronger players dominate. You stick handle and you can be checked, you place your body into the opposition and maybe Tage can reach around you but otherwise defenders have to get in closer and it becomes a strength issue. The only guy on our team who can play that is Cozens (and he's not fully there yet, but he will get there). Tuch as well but he's not here yet. So is it clear now??? Go watch it again. Watch the body positioning, watch the strength on the puck and the sticks, watch the leg drive. As a team we just can't play like that and when the other team starts to play us hard it's like men against boys. We are just too damn soft that's it. -
I see your thinking, but although Cozens needs better wingers for sure, that move sort of stunts him as he plays the game faster than them. I think Granato keeps that line together because they're all a step slower and they'll all be gone in a year or two.
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Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
This illustrates how you keep twisting the argument to make your point, which is a non issue and a non point. Sure, I'd rather have Brad Marchand on the team than Pat Maroon (an example that comes to me quickly not sure if their actual heights and weights match so feel free to tell me I'm off by 10 lbs. or something because that will be so meaningful) but I'd rather have a 235 lb guy with skill and toughness than a 5'10" guy with skill. The real point of the argument, which for your agenda you want to dance around, is are the Sabres big enough and tough enough to play that sort of hockey, and they are not. and now you can go big isn't tough and carry on around the issue ad in infinitum if you want................... -
Oh sorry, the talk is since they suck they are going to move Giordano at or before the deadline and then Borgen is being retained to take that spot.
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I think it unlikely Seattle isn't keeping Borgen . https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/will-borgen-agrees-to-terms-with-kraken/c-325918414
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Hockey analytics: Does size really matter in the NHL?
PerreaultForever replied to SDS's topic in The Aud Club
okay but that's pretty much a strawman argument. Don't think anybody argues that bigger guys are generally scoring more points than smaller guys, the question is do they help you win hockey games? A balanced team is required to win the Stanley Cup. I don't understand how anyone can still argue against that. Tampa got rocked by Columbus when they were all speed and skill because of people like Nick Foligno banging them around relentlessly. Tampa added big bodies and toughness and went on to win after that. Is that not convincing enough? Virtually every team that wins in the playoffs can play hard minutes and physical hockey and teams that do not have that become "choke" teams and disappoint (eg. Toronto or Edmonton). It's not all that complicated. 2 scoring lines, 1 checking line and 1 line of grit and toughness, preferably big. That's still the formula for success. As much as he's an overpaid big dummy, does anyone want to argue that we wouldn't be better off with Lucic on our side ramming one of their players into the boards rather than him destroying Miller? Somebody probably will, but they'd be wrong. Balance. -
Bjork and Hayden were not our worst players tonight. The Cozens line with those wingers you hate was imo our best line (although no line was good). A guy like Tuch would help against a team like Calgary for sure, but I'm not counting him yet as he hasn't played a game. I'm also reserving an opinion on Joker. Him and Dahlin in preseason were awful.
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Sorry but you are so incredibly wrong. It's not the talent, it's the style. We cannot handle tough defense first hockey simple as that. We can skate with the Edmontons and Torontos and with decent goaltending beat them, but Calgary, Boston, Washington, anyone who plays hard physical dominant D fuggedaboudit.
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Oh I agree fully, they can, they should, but I also see some things in Dahlin's game that just seem the same. As I've said, I truly believe he might be a slow thinker and thus he needs more coaching and less pressure situations for his development. He needs to learn to react more instinctively (the right way) . We rushed him without assessing his limitations properly. Obviously that was partly because our D was so crap he was still a better option than what we had, but ultimately it was bad for his development and I expect him to take longer than average to be great or he might always have big flaws.
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This is a very interesting one for me. Calgary plays solid D, pretty much as close to old school hockey as you get these days and is exactly the kind of hockey I don't think we are built to play against. It feeds perfectly into the ever ongoing size and toughness and grit debates that go on forever. If we can hold up well against them I might have to accept I have outdated ideas, but I don't think we will.
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To be clear, I'm in no hurry to trade him away. I think the deconstructing already done is enough. If I was KA I'd see what we could get for him and if there was a big offer out there I'd seriously consider it but I wouldn't ditch him. I'd much rather build a team where we can reduce his role. I think that'd be the best option. Drop that idea of him as the dominant D man, the Hedman or Lidstrom or whoever and say this is our offensive guy we use on the PP and play more when we're behind and need to gamble, and we keep him off the ice more in the 3rd when we're protecting the lead. But for that we need to add that complete player or some additional solid D men. Hopefully Power and Samuelson help get us there (among others). Would I prefer he was a complete player? Sure. But I don't see that happening right now unless he makes big changes.
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Fast starts are due to youthful exuberance and doing what the coach tells them to do when the game starts. Then they get caught up in the game and it fades. I really don't find this overly surprising or unique. I mean what's the alternate hypothesis, that these young guys are bad athletes and can't keep it up? They're unfit? I don't think so. Not sure why you're upset over the other comment. Guess you read it as condescension? Wasn't. Just saying that I've seen this sort of thing many times before. Haven't you? So thank you very much for your kind words and judgements. Have a nice day.
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I'm hopeful. I really think Cozens is different from what else we've had here over the last decade. he doesn't play the same (and it's a different game now) but I see a lot of Mike Peca elements in him. A true leader.
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Well, I don't think it's all that complicated. At this time of the year most teams play harder/better at home. Florida 8-0 at home, both losses on the road. Toronto 8-2 at home, 3-3 on the road. Boston 6-1 at home 2-4 on the road and so on. Calgary had a great road trip but not many exceptions to that including us. It shouldn't be this way maybe but it's a long season and teams simply don't go as hard on every game and home games tend to bring out the best efforts. Second half of the season this will change and the truly better teams will be tougher on the road too as points become crucial. I think it's also true too that young teams historically take longer learning to win on the road (and to hold leads). If you've watched hockey for decades you've seen this play out time and time again. Line match ups do matter but I don't think that's huge in our case as we do not have clearly defined top lines or checking lines, they are all kind of equal. Sure, Tage's line is the bigger offensive line at the moment but it's not by a lot. Scoring is spread out and so is defense. The defense is another matter though. We do not have big minute shutdown D men who can carry big chunks of the 3rd. This matters a lot imo which is why I like all those shiny D prospects we have coming and want to keep that cupboard stocked full.
