GASabresIUFAN

Amen brother. The Sabres moving up in the standings is all that really matters. FYI, NHL.com has Tage 131 on their fantasy list. Nurse is in no way better than Dahlin.

Many of these guys have longer track records of success like Teravainen. Others, like Verhaege, have shown consistent develop. Tage not being rated is more likely a reaction to the surprise nature of his season. If (when?) he does it again this year, that doubt will dissipate.

How many Sabres would you expect? On average your talking about 3 players per NHL team. Good teams with more and "rebuilding" teams with less. Objectively you are probably looking at a list of 63-65 forwards, 30-32 D and 5 or 6 Goalies before even starting to dive into the analytics and stats. So is Dahlin one of the top 30 D in the NHL? I'd agree with that, but probably in the 21-30 range. Obviously we don't have one of the top 5 or 6 goalies. At forward Thompson finished 49th last year in forward scoring. Skinner was 65th. Thompson finished 19th in forward goal scoring and Skinner was tied for 33rd. I think there is a plausible argument that Tage and even Skinner are arguably in the top 65 forwards in the NHL based on last year's performance. However, I can also understand leaving Skinner and Tage out given their performance in recent prior seasons. I do think if Tage has another great year, he'll easily make next years list. Not that any list really matters.

What were the lines at the end of last season? I think they were something like this. Skinner Tnt Tuch Krebs Cozens VO Asplund Mitts KO Vinnie Girgensons Bjork but also we saw late last year some VO Mitts Cozens One other note, I think the only "pair" that is probably written in ink is TNT with Tuch. 28 of Tage's 38 goals came once Alex was put on his line. Threading the nettle on line pairs with this many talented yet mostly unproven forwards, is going to be nearly impossible coming out of camp. It may 20 or so games to actually bare fruit. Finding the right usage for Krebs, Quinn and JJP is going to be a real challenge.

Someone mentioned up thread that this will be a very competitive camp. Maybe for who plays with who, but not who actually makes the roster. Baring injuries, 21 players on the roster are already pretty much set in stone. Goalie: Comrie, Anderson Defense: Dahlin, Power, Bryson, Jokiharju, Samuelsson and Lyubushkin Forwards: Skinner, TNT, Tuch, VO, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Asplund, Girgensons, KO, Quinn, JJP and Vinnie. That doesn’t really leave much room for someone to take a roster spot. There will be a roster spot for at least one D. I assume Pilut, Clague and Fitz will be competing for the 7th D slot. The only real roster question is will the Sabres carry 14 forwards or 8 D or stay at 22 players. Personally, I’m betting on 14 forwards. If we carry 14 forwards Sheahan or Bjork could earn a spot. If they carry 8 D then 2 of Pilut, Clague or Fitz will make the squad.

I had him at 18g 13a last year. I’m thrilled to have been so low on my projection. I’m hoping I’m low again this season with a 27g 25a season.

VO gets traded at the deadline for 2 2nds and a medium prospect. KA use these assets to acquire a goaltender and a defenseman to help a team fighting for a playoff spot. This trade happens because Quinn and JJP’s play demands more ice time coupled with breakout seasons by Cozens and Mitts.

I went and plowed through all 32 teams last year and the East is so much deeper and more balanced The average team in the East has at least 10 10+ scorers on the roster including 1.5 D. The West averages less than 9 (8.875) and less than 1 D per team (.875). The West also relies more on their better finishers averaging 4.25+ vs 4 20+ goal scorers, although Stl 9+ 20 goal scorers skews the data slightly. Ultimately the average playoff team has at least 10 10+ goal scorers including 1 to 2 with 10+ and has 5 20 goal scorers. 265+ seems to the number to score to get and stay in contention. Only 2 teams (LV and CBJ) scored 260+ and missed the playoffs and only two teams (Dal and the NYR) made the playoffs without reaching 260. CBJ missed because of terrible goaltending and defense and LV missed because of way to many key injuries. The Rags made it because of top goaltending and defense, not sure how Dallas snuck in. After looking at these numbers, I think more than ever that we are finally on the right track offensively. We have 10+ forwards who can reach 10+ goals and easily 5 or more guys who can score 20. We also have 2 D in Dahlin and Power who can add 10+.

I had a typo. Fla had 13. (Thus 2 of the 8 I looked at).

25% of the 8 I looked at. 10-11 seems to be the most common result. Most teams should expect their top 9 forwards to score at least 10 goals and then add one D who QB’s the PP and you get to 10 pretty easily. The more I delve into this projection the question isn’t the how many players, but how balanced the 10-12 guys are if you plan to roll 4 lines like Ruff did in 2005/6. For example are you like TB with only 10 guys but 8 of which potted 17 to 28 (plus Stamkos’ 40) or are you a top heavy team like Washington who also had 10 guys score in double digits, but most were in the middle to low teens. If the Sabres are going to take the next step, I’d like to see 12 guys score 10+, but I’d rather have 10 guys reach 10+ if 7 of them score 20+ .

I went and looked at a few team, all 8 I looked at had at least 10. Pitt had 12, and Edm 13. I also look at us, LV, TB, Car, Det, and Edm.

Here is a quick team goal projection top scorers - TNT 28, Skinner 27, VO 24, Tuch 23, Cozens 21 Potential for more - Mitts 18, Quinn 17 Solid contributions - KO 15, Krebs 14, JJP 13, Asplund 13 Depth - Z 9, Vinnie 9 Others - 8 (last season Caggulia, Murray, R2, and Jankowski gave us 74 games and 8 goals). With depth of Bjork, Malone, Murray, Biro and others, I don’t think 8 goals is an unreasonable guess. Defense 26 - Dahlin 11, Power 8 and 7 from everyone else. (We had 26 goals by D last year) That’s 265 goals up from 232 last season. This may seem like a huge increase, but it really isn’t. Last year Eakin, Hayden and Bjork played 182 games scoring only 11 goals. We also basically only received half seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs (138 games with 25g). Add full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs plus the additions of JJP and Quinn and we easily have the potential to add 30-35 goals. Now if we can cut 25 goals against, we’ll reach a 0 goal differential and become a playoff contender.

As I’ve said before, this is the deepest and most talented forward group Buffalo will field since 2005-2007. Like that team, they are 4 lines deep and will have scoring threats throughout the lineup. With a little luck in the health department, all 13 forwards have the ability to score 10+ goals and 9 guys have the skill to put up 20 or more (KO, VO, TnT, Coz, JJP, Quinn, Tuch, Skinner and even Mitts). I’m expecting at least 260 goals this coming season and at least 10 guys in double digits and 5-6 guys with 20 or more.

Lets look at this from lazy journalist point of view. 1) Sabres haven’t made the playoffs in over a decade 2) They made no headline moves in the off-season. Their biggest “splashes” were on a depth defenseman and a goalie with only 19 games of NHL experience 3) Their rivals, in Ottawa, and Det, added extremely well known talent and finished about the same as the Sabres in the standings last year. 4) The Sabres biggest moves are really the addition of 3 touted but unproven rookies in Power, Quinn and JJP and re-signing long-term a player with only one year of good play in Thompson. 5) Their goaltending on paper maybe the worst in the division with a 41 year old and the previously mentioned goalie with 19 games of experience. 6) The team plays in the hardest division in the harder conference. TB, Tor and Fla are almost certainly playoff teams. Ultimately this team is a series of what if’s to the journalist. Will Skinner and KO continue their good play? Can Comrie handle being a starter? How much will the 3 rookies really give next season? Will Thompson and Dahlin continue their high level of player? What will youngsters like Cozens, Mitts, Krebs and Samuelsson bring? We are bullish, but with this much uncertainty it’s easy to understand that in “impartial” observer may not agree.

Prince Daemon or Prince Philip

It’s much easier to be accurate when you have time to throw the ball and real players who can catch the football when it’s thrown to them. That said Josh is a unicorn in so many ways. He has the work ethic to learn and get better. He also is a once in life time athlete at his position. He is a tough as a linebacker, can run like a power tailback, can read a defense like Tom Brady, throw a football like Dan Fouts, lead a team like Joe Montana and is as competitive as Jim Kelly. I watched a show on the NFL Network where they were discussing teams changing their schemes to be more like the Bills offense. One of the panelists said it’s basically impossible because they don’t have a Josh Allen to run it.

I don't know if this has been previously posted but it's a good read. https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-assessing-the-risk-of-tage-thompson-s-extension-with-buffalo-sabres-1.1844752

https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/ 1. Owen Power 5. Jack Quinn JJP not listed at all. Not even in the honorable mentions. However Lukas Reichel 11th, Rossi 13th, and Jack Drury HM.

Actually I’m not pessimistic about Thompson overall. I do think he is an improved player. However I don’t view him as a perennial 30 goal player. History says he’s unlikely to maintain a 15% shooting %. I see him more like Tuch. This isn’t an insult, but if he does it again then I’m be thrilled he proved me not as optimistic as I should have been.

Besides Stafford, William Karlsson, and Jack Eichel, even Taylor Hall to a certain extent. Taylor Hall was 26 when he truly broke out. In the 3 season before his MVP year he has shooting % of 8.9, 9.1, and 8.4/ His MVP year he had shoot 14%. In the subsequent years he shot 9.7, 6.9, 7.4 and then his wonderful 2.3% with us. His career % is 10.1. He received his 42 mill deal (6 for 7) after his initial breakout campaign at 22 for 80 pts (53 assists) in 2013-14. They moved him 2 years later as his play dipped. William Karlsson in his 2 seasons before his breakout at age 25 shot 8.3 and 6.3%. His 43 goal year he shot 23.4% and then followed with a solid 14.2. Since then he has slipped back down to 8.9 last year, although he wasn't awful in the prior season. His pts have decrease from 79 to 56 to 46 to 39 to 35 last season. Not exactly worth the 5.9 per season he is being paid for the next 5 years. Now lets look at our friend Jack. Shooting % his first 4 years - 10.1, 9.6, 10.2 and 9.2. Then he has a career year ( at age 23) with 36 goals (78 pts) with a 15.9% shooting %. The next year he shoots 3.3% and then back to career averages of 10.5 with LV last year. We actually gave him the $10 mill before the breakout season, but he looks severely overpaid at this point. Hopefully for LV he gets fully healthy and gets back to at least being a point a game player. None of these guys are Mark Stone for example. That has never had a % less than 12.5 over a full season and has average for his career 15.6%. Now if he could just stay healthy. There are plenty more like these guys. The only guy who sorta fits TnT's profile and sustained it that I can even remember was Briere sort of. He played one season at age 21 with a 8.9%, then played parts of the next two seasons with % of 11.1 (13 games) and 25.6 (30 games) before truly establishing himself at 24 with a shooting % of 21.5. From 25 to 33 he ranged from 12 to 17% over full seasons. This is what we have to hope for Thompson, but even in Briere's case he showed he was primed for a breakout with the 25.6% in those 30 games. Thompson was completely out of left field.

None of those guys have close to Tage's production yet! However all are ahead of him based on their ages and games played. Prior to last season through age 23, Tage's played 145 games 18g 17a for 35 pts. (.24 pts/gp) Mitts through age 23; 195 games 33g 47a for 80 pts (.41 pts/gp) Cozens through age 20; 120 games 17g 34a for 51 pts (.425 pts/gp) Krebs through age 21; 61 games 7g 16a for 23 pts (.38 pts/gp) Honestly I have more faith in one of these 3 making a big step forward soon then I would have been on Tage making the leap. I think it's more likely that not, that at least 2 and maybe all three take a huge leap forward this coming season. Honestly they all have more raw talent than Tage and that is not to disparage Tage. Also I don't give a crap about what people say about players positions going forward. Back in the day Briere and Hecht floated between center and wing depending on injuries or matchups. Today is DG's "position less" system, the who playing where is less important than who plays with whom. DG is probably going to experiment with all 3 of Krebs, Cozens and Mitts at center or wing until he gets the chemistry he wants, and even if we moved on from Tage (which we obviously aren't going to do any time soon) we'd still have a very talented forward group with 5 players (including Asplund and Z) who can play center if necessary. A top 9 of Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Skinner, VO, JJP, Quinn, Tuch and Asplund (or Vinnie or KO) would still probably be the most talented team we have had in a decade. Ultimately, I think there are a plethora of reasons KA should have waited to give Tage a big contract. Ultimately he gambled and hopefully it will work out. I'm still waiting for someone to point a contract similar to Tage's that worked out. Pastrank doesn't apply because he was younger by a few years and already had productive seasons with shooting % of 10.8 and 13.9 prior to his breakout. A 30 goal season with a 13% wasn't a huge surprise once given a bigger role.

The Reinhart and Tkachuk situations were very different. Both guys had already proved themselves over multiple seasons. The Sabres should have locked up Reinhart long before he got to the point he needed to be traded. Also both players wanted out for good reasons. The Sabres with constant coaching and management changes stunk and Reinhart wanted to move on. Tkachuk wanted out of Canada (among other issues). Tage is now a key piece of a club heading in the right direction with a coach he likes a GM committed to doing the rebuild properly. He’s also has had only one good year.

I get the above consideration added some pressure on KA to get a deal done, but how much really? Could Tage eventually had walked if they did a shorter deal. Absolutely. However as the Bills, Atlanta Braves and hockey teams like TB have shown the likelihood of a player wanting to leave decreases with winning and a good team culture to go with it. If this team takes the next step, no way Tage walks if he is part of the core of a close knit winning team even after an arbitration case. Also this team is designed for some of these guys to move on. That’s why KA drafted 3 centers in the 1st rd this year. Even without Tage, the current team would still have Mitts, Cozens and Krebs down the middle. I would have waited to at least mid-season to see if Tage continued his high level of play before re-signing him. KA actually did the bold thing and locked him up. I hope this works and Tage rewards the team and the fans with a 40g 80+ pt season.

Like Jack 😉 or like Reinhart? Or like William Karlsson. I’d suggest looking at how TB handled Point (and others) to see a management team that doesn’t jump gun. Obviously finding the failures are easy. However show some similar situations where it worked out.

I agree, I see Vinnie playing most nights as the injury fill in and rest day replacement. Having Vinnie gives DG a Swiss Army Knife player who can sub in anywhere and the added luxury of giving others a game off periodically to rest nagging injuries. I can also see Vinnie getting hot and sending someone who is struggling to the bench.