GASabresIUFAN

When I did the poll for the Breakout Thread it was really cool being able to include so many players on the roster. Outside of Anderson, Okposo, Girgensons, Lyubushkin, Bjork, Skinner, Hinostroza, Fitz, and Thompson (who broke out last year), I felt a legit case could be made for everyone else on the roster even Bryson and Jokiharju. I still think Dahlin is only scratching the surface and could easily become a 70 pt player. I also think Krebs, Cozens, and Mitts all have another gear or two. The poll helped me truly understand why KA is preaching patience.

To those who voted for Power, what does a breakout look like? 25 pts playing 22 minutes a night? More points? More minutes? For a point of reference here our the rookie years of some other highly drafted D who Power somewhat reminds me of. Dahlin score 9 goals and added 35 assists playing 21 minutes a night as a rookie Hedman average 23 pts and 21-22 minutes for his first 3 seasons. Ekblad scored 12 goals and added 27 assists playing 22 minutes in his rookie year? (He also had 15g w 21a in year 2). PS How do we define a breakout by a rookie forward as well? For guys like JJP and Quinn would it be putting up Zegras type numbers or would 40 or so points be a great 1st year?

I get it. I want to win now as well. I've been yelling about fixing the goaltending for 3 years. In fact, I believe this team would have been in playoff contention last season had KA simply re-signed Ullmark or went out an actually got a real goaltender. Just think with a 40 year old retired goaltender who put up a 3.12 gaa the team went 17-12-2 or a 95 pt clip. Now imagine how things would have gone with real goaltending. I also wanted a top flight upgrade for Pysyk instead of a Toronto cast-off and as much as I like Comrie's potential, I'd much rather have a proven starting goaltender. KA's handling of the goaltending as the Sabres GM is malpractice. I fully believe that had TM keep our picks and prospects we'd already be a playoff team. Instead he rushed the rebuild and bam we are still wondering the desert. Outside the goaltending, I'm onboard with most of KA's development program. I think our forwards are a really good group ready to take the next step and if they do you'll see KA invest in the group as he replaces Girgensons and probably KO after this season. I also like 4/6 of the young D and see a bright future there as well. I also disagree about simply adding vets. Good franchises integrate the kids as the are ready. KA is right to give them a shot, but has insurance in Hinostroza and arguably Bjork if they fail. I would have sent Bjork packing, and I think if he has to play more than a couple of games here and there KA will look elsewhere for help.

It was a reasonable thought. He played at Michigan so the Sabres had probably scouted him, he played well in the SHL, the Olympics and WC and the Sabres were desperate for any live body to play goal. SJ signed him instead.

I thought KA would go a slightly different direction for the Amerks next season. With only one actual Sabres prospect (Laaksonnen) on the Amerks roster, I thought he might sign a few college UFAs. Instead he brought back Prow, Eliot and Tischke and then added Clague and Davies. All but Prow qualify as developmental players with under 260 pro games. Prow has 320 games under his belt, which is the cut off for the developmental exception player with 260 to 320 pro games. FYI ECHL games don’t count, but Euro games in the KHL, Liiga, SHL, DEL, Czech and Swiss top leagues do count.

Would it by cynical for me to think that KA brought in the big goalie from Minn-Duluth as Portillo insurance? I thought the kid, who apparently is coming back from an injury, looked really solid at the camp. I would ‘t be surprised if they signed him after next season, especially if Portillo bolts.

I added Dahlin and Tuch, because I think there is yet another level possible in their games. I saw what JT Miller and Kadri accomplished last season even though they were established and productive veterans, yet they managed to find an even higher level in the right situation. I feel Dahlin is developing kind of like Hedman who had a breakout at 23 (55pts) another at 26 (72 pts) and one more last year at 31 (85 pts).

I doubt Tnt was on anyone's radar as breakout player. Tons of choices this year. We have a plethora of promising rookies, maturing high draft picks, and even a FA goalie trying to establish himself as a bonafide NHL starter. The rookies are of course Power, JJP and Quinn. The maturing young high draft picks are Mitts, Cozens, Krebs and Dahlin. Of course Comrie in net is a first time starter. Others may include developing role players like Samuelsson and Asplund who's play demands more icetime. Even established guys like Tuch and Olofsson may hit new career heights in DG's system. My choice for breakout player is Rasmus Asplund of all people. In his first full NHL season he quietly put together a solid offensive season while becoming the team's best defensive forward. He showed some playmaking ability and the ability to score when the opportunity arose. His minutes have grown with each season. He even received Selke votes. If deployed with Mitts fulltime, I can easily see a jump from 8g 19a to something like 13-15g and 25 or so assists. He'll also be our top penalty killer. Interestingly, because he often played with Mitts, his Ozone starters we 54% last season, which was a complete reversal from the genius RK who used consistently 60%+ in the D zone. My second choice is Mitts if he can stay healthy.

Although not a perfect measure, Z was 5th last year in draws taken. (Obviously Eakin was first).

Johnson is a Californian what did you expect?

You know I'm not a KA apologist, but I'm wondering what moves you wanted KA to make this off-season? Admittedly, I wanted more "name" players instead of Lyubishkin and Comrie (although I did mention Comrie as a value move back in early May) and I wanted him to get another young veteran forward and possibly a 4th line center. However, the forward moves weren't realistic given the development of JJP and Quinn plus the in locker room leadership of Girgensons and KO. Remember entering the off-season he had 13 forwards and 6 D under contract or control. So I ask again other than goaltender, where was he feasibly supposed to be aggressive without giving up on a prospect like Krebs or Mittelstadt? Or should be have traded VO, who was one of our best players down the stretch last year, for what?

as a winger.

on the bench. Where else when Quinn and JJP make the team?

Opening Day lineup Skinner TnT Cozens VO Mitts Tuch Asplund Girgensons KO JJP Krebs Quinn

I don’t think anyone here dislikes Dylan Cozens. Everyone seems to like Dylan the leader and Dylan the person. However, I must admit I am somewhat disappointed with Dylan the NHL player. While he improved , O thought he and Mitts would be the break outs last year instead of Thompson and the return of Skinner. Admittedly he was rushed to the NHL because of the pandemic and made substantial strides in year two becoming a nearly 40 pt player. On the positives his points, mostly scored 5 on 5, increased by nearly 50% and his takeaways increased dramatically. Still I am left wanting more. For a 6’3 guy he isn’t very physical and his shooting, to put it kindly, needs work on accuracy. Also if he is destined to be our two way center long-term he also needs to get better in the faceoff circle. He also still disappears in too many games. The good news is that he is still only 21 (22 in February). Kevin Fiala broke out at 21 with his first 20 goal season while with the Preds. I hope to see similar progress from Dylan this coming season. One decision that might help Dylan significantly is management (KA & especially DG) deciding if he is a center or winger. With TnT, Mitts, Krebs, Girgensons and even Asplund on the roster, DG could give Dylan a long look on the wing, maybe even with Thompson and Skinner. In all honesty Dylan seemed much more like the player I remembered at the World Jrs playing on the wing for Canada at this year’s World Championships. Adding Cozens to our top line would help that line defensively, while opening offensive opportunities for him. If he ends up on wing with either Mitts or Thompson, I can see him scoring 20+ and passing 55 points. If DG sticks him on a D first line centering Asplund and KO, I don’t think he gets to either 20 goals or 50 points, maybe something more like 17 and 30 for 47 pts.

That was my initial thought as well. However the Sabres are much more attuned to analytics now and Joki’s numbers frankly aren’t very good. Lyubuskin’s seem better from my look at Hockey-reference. Lyubushkin is also considerably more physical with nearly 200 hits last year. Toronto only used him 16 minutes a night while DG played Joki over 21. Maybe the goal here is to give the smaller Bryson a larger more physical partner, but it could also be to give a pure stay at home partner for Power, to enable Owen to freelance more. The comparison would be the Myers Tallinder pairing.

I’ve updated this thread title to reflect this coming season. For the analytics experts here, would you mind posting a comparison of Samuelsson, Jokiharju and Lyubushkin defensively. One camp battle I’m interested to see play out is Lyubushkin vs Jokiharju with the winner getting to be Power’s partner. I also think this is make or break season for both Bryson and Jokiharju. With good seasons, one or both could join Samuelsson, Dahlin and Power as part of the longer term core beyond their current contract status.

Many might not agree with this thought, but this is the last year KA and DG operate without any pressure on them to make the playoffs. TP will see this as a productive season if the team gets to the mid 80’s in points. However, once big $ deals are going to some of these kids, there will follow an expectation for those players to lead us to the playoffs.

I went and looked at the teams at or over the cap and most seem to be able to get under the cap when players move to LTIR. LV may still have an issue with only 16 players under contract and Florida also seems to need to dump a few million. I do wonder if there is an opportunity to upgrade Bjork. I’m also still interested in giving Stralman a contract if he is interested for added depth on D. I still think we need more veteran leadership on the backend and don’t think our depth of Fitz, Clague and Pilut are good enough if someone important gets injured. I’m kind of shocked by how many older but really good hockey players are still UFA besides Kadri and Klingberg. Stralman, Subban, Kessel, Bergeron, DeKeyser, DeHaan, Neiderreiter, and Statsny all probably have good hockey left in them especially Neiderreiter. Erod and Farrance are also still unsigned and Erod had 40 points last year. I also wonder if KA made the right deals to upgrade Fitz/Clague/Pilut and or Bjork, would he make Bishops’ contract available to the highest bidder.

The biggest question mark for the the Sabres continues to be the risk KA has taken in net. Anderson is 41 and missed substantial time last season and although he performed well, his play diminished as the season progressed. Comrie has a total of 28 games in the NHL with his 19 last season an obvious career high. In fact in the last 3 season Comrie has played 47 total games in both the AHL and NHL. That's not much work. That said I like what I saw last year in WPG. My son-in-law is a Jets fan and I watched many of their games last year. Still goaltending more than youth is the Sabres Achilles Heal. If they stay healthy and play to their potential than KA will look like a genius, but this could easily blow up in Kevyn's face and take the season down with it.

FYI: from the Athletic BUFFALO, N.Y. – Don Granato summed up the Sabres’ free-agent approach by saying, “We didn’t need to do a lot.” That may sound like an odd statement coming from the coach of a team that missed the postseason. But all you needed to do was watch what unfolded during Buffalo’s four-day development camp to understand the way Granato and Kevyn Adams are approaching this season. They signed goalie Eric Comrie and defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin to affordable deals to bolster areas of need, but otherwise, the Sabres don’t want to get in the way of their young players. “We added a lot over the last 12 months,” Granato said. “We didn’t need to add a lot in the last 12 days.”

Point made. Maybe it's different this time because we actually try to develop the talent rather than just sticking them in the NHL.

I guess that depends on your point of view. I see a team nearly ready to compete for a playoff spot with decent goaltending. I think adding a player like Compher to improve the depth on this team could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs this year. One of the things the derailed us last year was injury. Key players like Mitts, Z, VO, Samuelsson and Anderson all missed significant time or in VO's case playing through an injury that robbed him of his best asset. KO stayed healthy for the first time if 4 years. Right now our only adequate injury insurance is Hinostroza.

Defensively. Absolutely. Offensively? Probably not, but he add another young veteran with Cup winning playoff experience which we have none of on this roster.