GASabresIUFAN

AHL isn't proof per se, but it is a much better indicator of whether someone is ready for the NHL and can succeed in the NHL vs someone putting up 100 pts in the Q post draft. That doesn't mean they'll become stars in the NHL, but history says they'll be excellent players. Here is a list of of the top 10 in AHL scoring as 19 years: Spezza (1.25 pts/g), W Nylander (1.18), Rantanen (1.15), Tomasino (1.10), Reichel (1.01), Pavel Demitra (1), Alex Holtz (.98), Peterka (.97), Vrana (.94), Bergeron (.89). That's a pretty strong list. Here is the top 7 list in the AHL at 20: Martin Lapointe (1.64), Satan (1.6), QUINN (1.35), Briere (1.35), Ryan Strome (1.32), Marc Savard (1.27) and Logan Couture (1.26). Another pretty strong list.

Here is where Wheeler lost me. He seems to value 19 & 20 year olds beating up on 17 & 18 year olds in the CHL over 19 year olds thriving in the AHL. For example in 2020 Dallas drafted Mavrik Bourque 30th and Wheeler ranks him 39th currently. Last season as a 19 he posted 20g 48a in 31 games plus added 16g 9a for 25 pts in 16 playoff games. He also added 5 pts in 6 AHL games. Now compare to 41st rated Lukas Reichel and HM JJP. Reichel, drafted 17th in 2020, put up 21g 36a in 57 gms last season in the AHL at 19 JJP, drafted 34th in 2020, put up 28g 40a in 68 gms last season plus 12 pts (7 goals) in 10 playoff games at 19. So what's more impressive dominating the Q as someone who turned 20 mid season or two 19 years leading their AHL teams in scoring and scoring a 1 pt a game? At worst the 3 guys should be rated the same and Reichel and Bourque basically are, but how is JJP not even in the same ballpark? Wheeler said that JJP's ranking was lower because he played on a better scoring team than Reichel. I'm sorry but that's bs especially when you look at their respective performances in the AHL playoffs where JJP thrived and Reichel disappeared.

As much as I like Savoie’s potential, he is not the 9th best player not currently in the NHL. NHL network has him 49th. Wheeler has him rated above Quinn, also a 9th overall pick, who is already a proven pro hockey player that just tore up the AHL. He is also rated ahead of JJP. NHL Network has Quinn 13 and JJP 23. Those rankings seem more realistic as they reflect current development. Until we see Savoie succeed against men he is just a pile of potential.

He seems to value newer draftees over developing prospects, CHL 19 years old who beat up over lesser competition vs AHL 19 years olds who excel despite playing against men. He also seems to value how a player ranked on his board in his draft year over actual development. He seems to focus on his view of the players upside vs likelihood of reach the NHL or succeeding in the NHL. Otherwise these is no justification for having Savoie as high as 9th. I think the NHL Network list is a much more honest list. That said his list has 4 Sabres plus another 3 in his honorable mentions. This is the most of any team in both categories and in total. As to JJP and Quinn he is punishing them for playing on a strong offensive team. He said as much when I questioned him on how he ranked Reichel and Holloway over JJP.

And Florida prospect pool is limited at best. They were one of 7 teams without a single prospect in the NHL Network top 50 prospects. They also have no one in Wheeler’s top 50 (and no one in his 30 Honorable mentions).

The correct answer to the poll question is none of the above. Decisions on Bjork, Vinne, Asplund, KO and Z will be made long before we get to Mitts, Krebs and VO.

The most likely internal candidates to push for a roster spot after next season are Savoie and Rousek. Savoie is stuck in the WHL for the next two seasons if he doesn't make the NHL roster. He is almost certainly going back to the this coming season, but I doubt it will be in his best interest to play in Juniors in 2023/24. As to Rousek, Peca's comments gave me the impression that he might be ready for NHL depth duty later this coming season. Bjork may be gone by the end of camp. Beyond him the two most likely candidates to move on are Girgensons and Hinostroza whose contracts expire after next season. KO is also an UFA and Asplund an RFA after next season. Assuming they extend our best defensive forward (Asplund) and our leader (KO), you might have a lineup that looks something like this; Krebs Thompson Quinn Skinner Mitts VO Asplund Cozens KO JJP Savoie Tuch Rousek The following year VO is almost certainly gone to save cap space. Krebs and Mitts will be RFA, but only Mitts has arbitration rights. Their departure will depend on their performance, team performance, contract cost and the development of guys like JJP, Quinn, and Savoie in the NHL plus Rosen and Kulich in the AHL. For example, if keeping Mitts is to expensive and Krebs and or Savoie are ready to play center in the NHL, then I can easily see KA moving Mitts to restock the cupboard. So if he moves out any young player in favor of another I'd rank them in the following order from most likely to least Most - Asplund, then VO, then Mitts, then Krebs, then Cozens is least.

The Jets only listing was Perfetti at 15.

NHL Network with the help of Sam Cosentino published their top 50 prospects. Their rules are 25 and under with 25 or less NHL games. The Sabres top the list with 4 prospects: Power 1, Quinn 13, JJP 23 and Savoie 49. NJ had 3 - Hughes D 4, Nemec D 12, Holtz W 18. Det had 3 - Edvisson D 7, Cossa G 24, Berggen W 30 Dal had 3 - Johnston C 11, Stankoven C 36, Bourque C 37 Mon had 3 - Slafkovsky W 6, Guhke D 20, Barron D 46 Edm had 3 - Holloway W 27, Bourgault C 32, Broberg D 48 Teams with 2 in the top 25 - Sea 2- Beniers C, 5 - Wright C; AZ 10 - Cooley C, 19 - Guenther W; Minn 16 - Wallstedt G, 17 - Rossi C; CBJ 3 - Sanderson D, 22 - Jiricek D Notes; Atl 12/50, Metro 11/50, Central 13/50 and Pac 14/50 Teams w zero - Bos, TB, Tor, Fla, Pitt, Colo, and Van Goaltenders 16 -Wallstedt, 24 - Cossa, 25 - Askarov, 42 - Wolf. Levi didn’t make the list.

I don’t think we have time for a thread that long. 😁

Not really. Here is a center we needed for the AHL and who might have contributed to the Sabres who is now gone without any assets returning the other way.

Get at least something for him, right?

Was this bad asset management? The kid is close to being an NHLer. AZ, Chi and Mon among others all need cheap depth. Could he have been traded to someone for a late pick where he’d have a better opportunity?

Actually only 3 of the top 25 came from picks 6-10, 3 from 11-15 and only 1 in the 1st rd after the 15th pick. No forwards came from the Kulich, Peterka and TNT range. If you want to use your math 56% came from the top 4 picks and the other 44% came from the other 221 or so picks plus UFAs. Long odds but sure a star can in theory come from anywhere, just don’t count on it and don’t expect even our guys drafted with picks 7-9 to become star players. As I’ve said before it doesn’t matter if they don’t become stars as long as they become productive players. Field a team with 3 lines of 50-70 point players and you’ll be a legit contender and this is the direction we are heading. Our deep farm system should allow KA to replace some of those players with current prospects and hopefully avoid giving away to many bad long-term contracts.

There is a balance. AHL rules limit the number of vets skaters allowed to play each night (vets are players with over 260 games of pro experience ) to a max of 6. It’s rare for teams to have 12 or more legit drafted prospects playing in the AHL in a year. It’s why guys like Davies and college UFAs get signed. Best case we’ll have 9 drafted skaters in the AHL next season in Murray, Rosen, Kisakov, Kulich, Cederqvist, Rousek, Pekar, Laaksonen and Weissbach. (10 if you include Malone) (UPL is a goalie and has different rules). Right now I think only Mersch and Prow are vet skaters under the AHL rules. TB usually kept a stable of 4 or so truly veteran guys to provide constant leadership in the AHL. I haven’t seen that yet from KA other than Mersch. DR kept guys like Michael Ryan, Chris Taylor up front and David Cullen and Brandon Smith on D to shepherd the kids and it truly helped guys like Roy, Pommers, Vanek, Campbell and others develop. I’d like to see something similar to that in Rochester again.

That’s not even close to mathematically true. The majority of star forwards in the league are top 5 picks. There are always exceptions, but really not many. Of the top 25 point scorers last season 14 (56%) were drafted in the top 4, 10 of 25 in the top 2 (40%). Another 7 were drafted in the top 17 picks. (21 of 25 were 1st rd picks or 84%). Only 4 of the top 25 were acquired after the 1st rd and they are Josi (2nd rd), Johnny Hockey (4th rd), Kaprizov (5th) and Panarin (undrafted).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lightning-syracuse-crunch-player-development-140400915.html I saw this article and it reminded me of why the Bolts are such a good organization and consistently develop later round players like Point, Cirelli, Johnson, Palat, Joseph, Paquette, Killhorn and Gudas. TB believes learning to win starts in the AHL. Like TB, I have longed believe that building a winning culture starts with building a winner in the AHL. The prospects need to learn “Sabres hockey” and learn to win there first. TM thought the AHL was a place to temporarily stash players. Jbot tried to build a winner in Rochester, but he didn’t have enough prospects from TM to create that teaching environment, although they made the playoffs both of his completed seasons. KA now has the prospects (his own plus Jbot’s) to build that winning environment in Rochester. Signing Mersch and Malone were a positive step to adding veteran leadership, but I’m not yet convinced he is fully committed to building a championship level team in Rochester.

If he puts up another 30 goal 70 pts season, I have zero issue with him getting paid. For me the issue is mostly term but also overpayments in $ as well. $8 mill in today NHL for a 70 pt guy is appropriate, but not 9 and not for more then 6 years. We also can’t give out to many of these type deals. With Skinner’s bad contract, once Dahlin, Thompson and Powers get paid, there really isn’t to much room for more big $ deals. Those 4 plus Tuch will likely cost about $39-40 mill. That leaves approx 43.5 for the other 18 players, and Samuelsson, Mitts, Krebs, and Cozens will also need new deals during that time. We also still don’t have any proven goaltending. If Comrie works out you can add him to the contracts list.

Not a surprise once they re-signed Hintostroza. With Quinn and JJP joining the Sabres and Bjork under contract, his best scenario was as the 14th forward. He’ll make significantly more money in Switzerland. Best of luck R2.

Funny how you ignored the 90 pts part of my post, but yes there are very few superstars in the league. There were about 40 pt per game players and only 18 1.2 or better pts per game players. Thompson was best Sabres at .87. By your own admission, our best two potential forwards are Quinn and Savoie (I agree by the way). I also agree let’s see if they get there before locking them up for big $. By the way looking back at the 05/06 Sabres, I reviewed the careers of Vanek, Pommers, Roy, Drury and Briere. Their primes lasted 6-9 years. Interestingly the pinnacle for 3 of the 5 occurred at 29 and then it was downhill from there. Vanek peaked at 22 and Roy at 24. Thompson just broke out at 24. His next contract will start when he is 26. A 6 year deal will should cover his prime very nicely.

Ok, you do even more work on prospects than I do, which guys do you project with become a 50 goal scorer? Which will become a pt a game player much less a 90 pt player? Which will accomplish those heights consistently? Will any of them do it by 24? Tnt had a huge breakout year at 24 with 68 pts. These guys are 50-75 pts players and that isn’t a sin. Skinner’s career high in goals is 40 and points is 63 pts, which he’s accomplished 4 times. DR built a cup contender on a roster of those kind of forwards.

Here are some of the truths about this rebuild. 1) The true potential superstars on this team are on defense in the names of Dahlin and Power. If we are going to commit stupid money to anyone these are the guys. 2) There are no potential superstars at forward. Some really nice players like Thompson and potentially Mitts, Cozens, Quinn and JJP among others. This is actually a strength. This team will score by rolling four lines and that means no one player like a Crosby or Kane is the key to success. 3) The true depth in our farm system is at forward. This means that KA probably doesn't have to put to many of his big contract eggs in the forward basket. Maybe he can let guys like Cozens and Mitts walk (or be traded for other futures) as Kulich and Östlund develop to take their places. These decisions will be the hardest part of cap management going forward. IMHO none of these guys should be re-signed for more than 5 or 6 years. 4) none of this matters unless we get good goaltending, which KA has yet to invest in. 5) As I've said before, this is the last season KA gets a pass. Once we start committing bigger $ to players like Thompson and Dahlin, we need to not only make the playoffs but have success there as well.

The Blackhawks haven’t won a Cup since extending Kane and Toews. Sorry.

McDavid and Crosby are superstars that have stayed healthy. The Blackhawks gave Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook huge longterm deals. Only Kane’s has worked. Shea Weber’s deal is a failure. The list is endless. Drury and Briere’s contracts when they left the Sabres failed miserably. Drury was paid an average 7 mill a year for 5 years and last only 3.5 years with the Rags. His points we 56, 58, 32 and then 5. You consider that a success? Most long term deals especially if they last past 34 deteriorate quickly. Locking kids up also often don’t work. How is Kotkaniemi’s deal working for the Canes? I’m not saying don’t give deals to some of our key kids. Dahlin and Power are the best bets, but again 5-6 years max.