GASabresIUFAN

No, why not wait until the plan shows it's actually working and the team become competitive. Give him a one year extension for now then a multi year once the team actually moves up in the standings.

Ok genius what will you say if the Athletic prediction comes true, the goaltending fails again for the 3rd time under KA and the team is battling Mon for last in the Atlantic?

Seriously? Didn't Josh lead the Bills to multiple playoff appearances before being extended? How many playoff appearances has KA lead us to?

@Taro T The Sabres best season under TM 81 pts in 82 games. Fired after one more season The Sabres best season under Jbot 68 pts in 69 games. Fired after the season The Sabres best season under KA 75 pts in 82 games. Given an extention.

At the trade deadline.

Premature

Noooooooooooooooo! Comrie 50 Anderson 25 UPL 7

I’m not worried about scoring. To much talent in a offense oriented system to not score. I think 260+ is very reasonable for this group. That said, CBJ scored 260+ and easily missed the playoffs (only 81 pts) because of poor D and mediocre goaltending that allowed 300 goals against. They were a -38 in goal differential. My floor for the Sabres this season is a CBJ 2022 type season where we score 260-265, but still give up 280 to 290 goals and finish in the low 80’s in points. My best case for the Sabres is that they score 265+, Comrie comes through with Ullmark level goaltending or better and the team gets to a 0 in goal differential pressing Boston for the 4th slot in the Altantic. I believe their is a very real chance that 2 of the old guard, Wash & Bos, take a step back and open the door for 2 of Ott, Buffalo, CBJ and the NYI.

Sheahan isn’t making this team unless someone gets hurt in camp.

I have come to really like Asplund. He is unique on the Sabres in that he is tremendous defensive forward. In addition he seems to grow each year offensively and always seems to have excellent chemistry with Mitts. I think his production grows again this season regardless of which line he plays on. If used mostly as a defensive forward, I can see low 30’s in points with about 10 goals. If he gets more Ozone time and is teamed with Mitts or Cozens, then I see 15 goals and closer to 40 points.

The East is a very interesting mix of teams. You have the old guard still at a high level in Pitt, Wash, and Bos. You have 4 teams in their prime in TB, Tor, Car, and Fla ( all have been in the playoffs each of the last 3-6 years straight). One new guard team in the NYR. Then you have 3 teams in each division fighting to make the playoffs in the NYI, NJ, CBJ, Buf, Det and Ott. Each of these teams has an argument that they will be the team knocking on the playoff door this year. The NYI were a playoff team recently, have great goaltending and some stars up front. NJ argues that their young roster is about to explode (in a good way). Columbus says they scored 260+ last year, they added Johnny Hockey upfront and added Gudbranson and Jiricek to help the D. Ott added goaltending and big name forwards to a solid young core. Det added goaltending and filled holes with proven vets to add to another young group. Buffalo is building on a great young core featuring two No. 1 overall D and can roll 4 lines. I find all these arguments reasonable and that should make for a really interesting season. If I have to rank the teams on most likely to take the next step, I'd have Ott (1), CBJ (2), NYI (3), Buffalo (4), Det (5) and NJ (6). The funny thing is which of these 6 teams gets the best goaltending probably wins this argument. On paper we have the worst goaltending of the six, although I don't really trust the tandem in Columbus or NJ either. The NYI have by far the best tandem in Sorokin and Varlamov, followed by Ott with Forsberg and Talbot. However, goaltending alone won't get the NYI to the playoffs. Of this group I really like our chances if Comrie plays 50 games at near Ullmark level goaltending.

Which is a nice way of saying this author is modelling something that can't or shouldn't be efficiently modeled without significant changes. I don't think I'd publish the result of something that on the face of it doesn't make sense. The Sabres, despite injuries, a 40 year old goalie, incorporating new players, while still fielding a team that often played guys like Bjork, Hayden and Eakin played the second half of the season with a record of 20-17-4 or an 88 pt pace. In the last 1/4 of the season they went 12-6-3 or an 105 pt pace and that included a nearly 500 record against playoff teams during that stretch. Also a 6-2 record with Power in the lineup. Somehow this incredibly poor model suggests a team that was progressing throughout last season, who upgraded goaltending and defense, and that is adding 3 prized rookies (a top overall pick in Power, and two forwards that had historically excellent seasons in the A last year), that the team would somehow be just treading water. As I pointed out before, even if the returning players just play to last years level, full seasons of Mitts, Krebs, Tuch, coupled with the additions of JJP and Quinn, will add somewhere around 30 more goals to this lineup. A lineup that scores 260 or better will be in playoff contention. It's really that simple, but this complicated model doesn't seem at account for that effectively. Comparing us again to Det and Ott, the higher placement of this list imho is more of a factor of getting easier to predict veteran players in the off-season rather than substantially improving their teams. That said, they do have the advantage of more proven goaltending.

I have us in the 260s not 290s. This is what I posted in the "half empty" thread

7 of their top 50 players

https://theathletic.com/3610072/2022/09/20/sabres-prospects-kulich-rosen-savoie/ Unlike the season preview, this is actually a solid review of the kids who played in the Prospect Challenge by Matt Fairburn. 1. Kisakov - 2. Cederqvist - He's taller, stronger with a strong net front presence. 3. Savoie - Speed and skill a really stood out\ 4. Kozak - Sound defensively 5. Kulioch - AHL ready now. Competes over all 200 feet of the ice and willing to be physical. 6. Lindgren - Speed and great skater. Makes quick outlet passes. 7. Rousek - Elite passer (according to Appert). Tenacious on the puck. "Everyone wants to play with him" also according to Appert. 8. Komarov - needs to work on his first 3 steps to get quicker 9. Rosen - quick release with a very hard shot. Also good speed 10. Weissbach and Laaksonen - great help to younger players all week. Liked Weissbach's offense.

Well here is the first Preview of the upcoming season. Sorry it's from the Athletic and it predicts we'll be the 4th worst team in the NHL. Don't worry the pitchforks are already out. Dom Luszczyzsyn believes that Sabres will finish with 76 pts next season and actually be worse than the Flyers, Sens and Red Wings among 28 others. Only Chicago, Mon and AZ project lower. He doesn't even list JJP as a possible Sabres next season. He is even using player data which includes data points from the RK era to make his projections. Obviously is much easier to predict the performance using analytic tools with veteran players coached by veteran coaches, and he is correct in that the Sabres have so many young players that you don't know how they will grow and develop. Still one needs a little common sense when the data doesn't match the eye test. This team turned the corner last year. If this team fails to score 250+ and move into the mid 80's pt wise, I'll be very disappointed and so will management and the players. This is his one saving grace: HIs best case scenario IMHO has about a 75% chance of occurring. His worst case 5%. https://theathletic.com/3606971/2022/09/20/buffalo-sabres-2022-23-season-preview/ Anyway, If you find other previews please post them here so that we can bash them as well.

I’m also surprised that Kozak is making the jump. Not many 7th rounders jump to the A in their D2 year.

"I would think I'm coaching him soon," Appert finished. Appert talking about Kozak after the 3rd prospects game.

Well, that looked like Georgia against Oregon. Still how in h-e-l-l does a team like this fail to convert on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 6 times. I don't get it. Don't go in the shot gun. Lineup with 2 TE's and either run Josh up the middle, run Moss behind Gilliam, or let Josh bootleg it. Enough. It's just not that hard. Do we have any confidence in Casey Keenum?

Pronman said his skating was an issue. Oops!

How are the Amerks fans feeling about the forward group after watching the prospect challenge? Kozak, Kisakov, Rousek, Rosen, Kulich and Cederqvist all have had some really nice moments. Add them to Mersch, Murray, Biro, Weissbach, Malone and possibly Bjork and Sheahan and you have a really nice blend of new players, veterans and mid level prospects.

That was one chippy game.

All “prospect” lists are all different based on the restrictions they use to define a prospect. All use an age limit of some kind. Many use 22 or 23 and under saying that guys older than that aren’t really “developing” any longer. Others also an NHL games qualifier to kick guys off the list saying if you have played “x” number of games you have either proven your an NHLer or your not. I think what we have seen with Tage Thompson, that both of those qualifiers maybe overly restrictive. I use an expansive definition of 24 and under and the player must be waiver exempt. Tage and Mitts being sent down after 100+ NHL games and growing from the experience taught me to use a broader approach. This broader approach is why Krebs and Samuelsson are still on my list and not on the list sited above. It also varies by what criterion the writer utilizes to rank the player. Are they using upside only, or are they using years to the NHL as a factor or in what round the player was drafted. Do they look at a players skill set to see if it will translate to the NHL or not. How this plays out really affects how a writer would view certain players. For example lets look at forwards Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Bloom, Nadeau and Kozak all taken in the 2021 draft. If you rank them by where they were drafted, then you’d rank them in the order I listed them. On the draft day that might work because that pick is a representation of the organization view of their talent, but at D+1, are those perceptions still valid? Take CHLers Nadeau, Bloom and Kozak. 3rd rd pick Bloom had 30g 31a for 61 pts in 67 games in the OHL 4th rd pick Nadeau had 35g 43a for 78 pts in 65 games in the Q 7th rd pick Kozak had 32g 37a for 69 pts in 62 games in the WHL Looking at these numbers alone who would rank higher? Now add in the Bloom was off for a year and played on a bad team, Nadeau isn’t the best skater and Kozak is the only one AHL eligible even though he is only a few weeks older than Bloom and Nadeau. What about the praise Kozak received from Amerks Ast Mike Peca? Does that additional information help or hurt their rankings? Now how does their performance stack up against the 3 Euros drafted ahead of them? When I did my list post draft, I discounted Poltapov because it could be another 2-3 years before he comes to NA, but left Kisakov ahead of the 3 CHL players because he is already in NA and likely to suit up for the Amerks in the fall. IMHO, when a player is going to impact the Sabres can be a deciding factor on where they are ranked.

We got a good glimpse last night why Peca and Appert are so high on Kozak. I get the feeling from them that he is likely Rochester bound for next season.

Just compared the Prospects roster to the Development camp roster and outside of our drafted and signed kids, there are 4 returnees. At forward McDonald, Olischefski and Passolt return. (Both Olischeski and Passolt played for our affiliates last year after their college seasons ended). On Defense Buteau returns. I remember McDonald and Buteau standing out during the development camp.