GASabresIUFAN

It really depends on how JJP, Sheahan and others do over the next week, but I disagree on JJP. While they could send him down, I've seen nothing that even hints that is how the Sabres are thinking. In fact when I looked at the depth of the forward group in Rochester, it doesn't look like they anticipate him being there. The Amerks forwards right now are Malone, Mersch, Kulich, Rosen, Kozak, Kisakov, Murray, Biro Cederqvist, Rousek, Weissbach, Pekar, Jobst and Passolt. That's without adding Sheahan or Bjork. That's a huge amount of talent for an AHL team upfront.

I haven't seen their projection. However a 10+ point year over year improvement would be a very good result for this coming season.

Analytics are great. They do a great job of explaining what happened in the past, but they are terrible at accounting for player development. There is a well known adage that past performance is not indicative of future results. No model could have predicted Tage's improvement last year nor did they predict Skinner's rebound. They all assume if you were "X" last season you'll likely be within one standard deviation of "X" this season. All these model say will be exactly the same as last year points wise. I honestly can't see that happening unless the goaltending completely falls apart, which admittedly is possible. As I've said before, jettisoning the JAGS throughout the lineup with young high end talent plus full season of the traded for players will elevate this team by at least 30 goals over the course of the season. Moving from a team that score 230 to one that scorer 260+. Teams that score 260+ are at a minimum 82+ pts teams.

They are probably going to go with the hot hand early in the year and see how things play out.

Yes and no. We probably go down the field that same way and score a touchdown and still win. Harbaugh new his defense was gassed.

Here is the deal with Bjork’s contract. His cap hit is 1.6 and salary 1.8. If waived the Sabres get 1.1 in cap relief, but Bjork still gets his 1.8 in salary. Bjork isn’t in our top 12 forwards and won’t be playing even if he makes the team. Truthfully he isn’t in our top 17 forwards. I’d play JJP, Vinnie, Sheahan, Malone, Biro and Rousek all ahead of him. So what’s best for the Sabres? Carrying a bad player because he has a contract or giving his roster spot to someone who can help them team? I’d rather have the 8th D. I’d also rather keep Sheahan over Bjork. One caveat is that according to Capfriendly Pilut is still waiver exempt. If that is correct, @Amerks8796 could ultimately be right and the Sabres send Pilut down while carrying 14 forwards. All that said, Bjork is a JAG who had 8 pts in 58 games last season. Sheahan, who also plays center and is defensively responsible, put up 17pts in 69 games last year and was a plus player on an expansion team. Money or no, Bjork should not make this team over Sheahan, JJP, Krebs, Pilut or Fitz.

I was thinking much the same thing. Lots of puck movers, but not anyone who actually defends well.

What has Bjork done to prove he is a viable NHL player compared to the upside of JJP or Krebs? The best thing that could happen to Bjork (and the Sabres) is that he gets waived and picked up by another team. With Sheahan, Malone, Rousek, Biro and Weissbach all in the organization, Bjork is easily replaced if lost. Maybe Appert and fix Bjork in Rochester if he clears waivers and turn him into an effective NHL player. Also, keeping Fitz or Pilut over Bjork would only reduce our cap hit by about 350K. We’d remain above the cap floor. Of course, it’s very possible that someone starts the year with an injury and no one we are discussing gets cut.

How do Amerks fan feel about a potential D group of Clague, Davies, Laaksonen, Priskie, Tischke, Prow and Eliot?

How? Right now with Vinnie, Krebs and JJP we are at 13 forwards. Bjork or Sheahan would be a 14th forward. If we carry 13 forwards, we can keep both Pilut and Fitz in the NHL. I would agree that waiving Bjork and Sheahan is more likely than waiving both Fitz and Pilut. I looks like there are 5 D in the Amerks camp after the recent cuts. Add Priskie, Clague and Davies to that group and the Amerks have plenty of D even if the Sabres keep both Pilut and Fitz in Buffalo.

Here we are with about a week left in camp and the roster is pretty much as predicted back in July. What drama is left? Are we carrying 13 or 14 forwards? If 13 - None of Bjork, Sheahan, or Malone is making the roster. Krebs & JJP are making the roster. Are we carrying 7 or 8 defense? Who is still fighting for 7 & 8? Fitz and Pilut? I don’t think Clague, Priskie or Davies are really in the conversation. I’m kind of thinking Pilut is the leading candidate for the 7th slot.

@inkman I was being sarcastic.

Got to love seeing Alex Nylander getting another opportunity.

UPL plays like that most nights, he’ll become our starter sooner then later. He was especially impressive in the first period. VO and TNT have incredible releases on their shots.

https://theathletic.com/3621131/2022/09/28/nhl-regression-candidates-2022-23/

The NFL should vacate the Fish’s win over the Bills for violating the concussion protocols. Only way to make sure they are properly adhered to and it wouldn’t hurt the Bills either. Also I think the NFL, the Bills and the Fish failed to adequately protect the Bills from the heat. It seems to me that they needed to have a shade over the entire benches for both teams.

I think this is going along way toward answering the key camp questions: 1) Who will partner with Power? The answer somewhat surprisingly is Joki. I thought his negative analytics would give Bush a chance to take the job, but I guess DG liked Power w Joki late last year and is going with what worked. 2) How to integrate JJP and Quinn into the forward group. DG doesn’t coddle young players. He played Power 23 minutes a game his debut last year and he looks to be doing the same with Quinn and JJP. That said I really like the JJP Cozens Krebs line. I don’t love the TnT line as it combines 3 shoot first players. I would swap Tuch and VO. 3) Who will play center? There has been much talk about Mitts and Cozens being better on the wing and Krebs more comfortable at center. Also who will replace Eakin as the 4th line center. I think this lineup answers the questions: TnT, Mitts, Cozens, and Girgensons. Not really a surprise. 4) What is a surprise is the 3rd a d 4th D pairings. Is this a hint that Bush could be a spare part to start the season, or an attempt by DG to get Bryson and Fitz going by pairing them together again? As to who Davies is, he is a AAAA puck moving D who has played 22 NHL for Nashville the last few seasons. Like Clague, Pilot, Fitz, and Priskie, he is a decent spare part who can play in the NHL in a pinch and is still a developmental player by AHL definition. They also are all young enough to possibly earn a 7th or 8th role in the NHL.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I expect Tage to regress a little this season, not in terms of his play but in terms of production. I think he'll score around 30 and add 25-30a this season. I think his shooting % will decrease to a more sustainable 12% or so and with others doing well he may actually lose a little PT at DG spreads the wealth and rolls 4 lines. None of this is a criticism of Tage, it's just how I see the team being constructed. When you look at the Sabres, obviously Tage and Skinner can put up 60+ pts. However, I see Mitts, Cozens, Quinn, Tuch, VO and even JJP and Krebs having that kind of potential. That's a huge amount of talent to have floating around and if Mitts and Cozens fulfill that promise this year as I suspect they might, we are going to be a matchup nightmare for many teams.

25g 35a. 2nd line PF.

I'm not sure what Weekes means. Are we bringing back Desjardins? Are we acquiring a goaltender in trade? Are we signing a long lost veteran goaltender?

First things first, Dallas can afford to re-sign him. They have 6+ in cap space and another 3.3 in LTIR. Why would Robertson want to leave a Cup contender to come here? KA just signed a similar one year wonder for 7 mill per year, why invest in another one year wonder (JR's 41 goals came on an 18% shooting percentage), when he has potential 30-40 goal guys like Quinn and JJP on ELCs. While I think Robertson is an excellent player, I just don't see the urgency to acquire him and put another big contract on the books when we be attempting to re-sign our own breakout players this year and next. I think it's much more likely that Dallas re-signs Robertson to a 3 year bridge deal and KA trades Bishop back to Dallas for Khudobin's contract and a draft pick. Dallas then uses Benn's money in 3 seasons to pay Robertson long-term.

I think you read something into my comments that wasn't there. I never said he wouldn't trade prospects to fill roster holes once we were a good team. We are talking about today and KA has been very clear about his rebuild strategy. He won't block prized prospects and he isn't trading away his pipeline. I doubt that changes until we are a playoff team. That said, I do think his value oriented approach will remain. We are also talking about making an acquisition for Roberston for this coming season not 2-3 years from now. Given how many of KA's young roster will need new contracts in the next couple of years, my guess is that KA is very leery of investing 8 mill a year in a player that isn't from our development program and wants to be here.

Why would the Sabres put Comrie in net for his first game behind a bunch of AHLers as his defense? I thought they wanted to put their guys in a position to succeed.

Have we not learned anything about KA during rebuild 3.0? He isn’t bringing in any outside assets in the organization unless he has no choice such as goaltending and an RHD and even then they’ll be value oriented transactions. While bringing Robertson is certainly interesting, no way KA trades any of his precious young talent for him.

Camp thoughts so far, mostly from the post Flyers game practice lineup 1. Skinner & Thompson are a pair, despite TNT’s goal scoring popping (28 of 38) once Tuch joined the line 2. I found it interesting that DG played his top 6 D for next season against the Flyers, except Bryson and Joki got the first crack as Power’s partner. From all reports, they played pretty well as a group. From the Sabrespace posts, people here really like Bush’s play. 3. Girgensons as the 4th line D. Not a big surprise and I suspect he’ll be there opening night, but will Asplund also got a look there in upcoming games? 4. VO - Mitts - KO; Was this another indication of where DG is taking the lineup? Or was this just getting vets ice time together to see if there was some chemistry there? The reports from DG, KO and Skinner on Mitts from the Day 5 notes are very encouraging. 5. If TnT is the no. 1 center, Mitts the 2 and Z the 4, who is 3? Krebs or Cozens? Given Cozens success on the wing at Worlds, will DG experiment with him there as well? 6. We have seen UPL, Subban and Anderson. Comrie in net next? Any reports on how he has looked in camp so far? 7. Are Biro and Rousek the first 2 AHL recalls if needed? 8. Who is leading the battle for the 7th D slot? Pilut leading Fitz?