woods-racer

The chances of winning the first one are 5%. The chances of winning the second one are at best 6.1%.

My point is that it was never 10.2% because you have 2 lottery tickets. In this specific case the parameters changed for the second lottery so the second lottery pick is variable dependent on the first, but the % chance of winning still changes very little.

I resemble that remark. Doohikey always gives me some weird emoji when I do some non-sensible ramble. 76.3% of the time I'm one scotch past my bed time.

I wouldn't call it being fooled, just not understanding in this case. If you get 2 shots moving up in the draft one at 5% and one at 5.2% it is very easy to assume that their odds are 10.2%. Some would assume that they are much better but maybe not a total of 10.2%. The reality is when the first lottery is played and you lose the odds of winning the second lottery are still just 5%. Getting more chances does not increase the % chance you will win.

@SDS turned me on to a book a few years back called A Drunkards' Walk-How Randomness Rules Our Lives. Talks all about math-probabilities-statistics and how swayed they are or can be. Quite eye opening.

There's almost as many billboard adds on the 190/290 around Buffalo for sports books as there is for accident attorneys. It's getting way out of control.

I imagine he wants a bonified shot at another cup as much as he wants the big payday. I bet he sacrifices some income to play on a cup contender that will give him as much as possible pay wise and still make it under that cap.

The number of draft picks is also a large factor in all this. KA only got 5 picks in his first draft (2020). His first order of business was to remedy that (he has spoke about this at length) and the following year he had 11 draft picks. Prior to 2021 you have to go back to 2016 to see another larger the normal ( 6 draftees ) class. Size matters, it gives the GM that many more chances of finding a diamond in the late rounds. Teams that are the best at finding those diamonds get good and stay good. Prior to 2017/18 the Sabres where still horrible at finding solid players after the first round (I am generalizing here). Hence why the cupboards still appear bare. If Botterill and KA did/do a reasonably competent job of drafting after 2018 Rochester will really see that fruit of that next year.

I resemble that remark.

A bird in hand beats 2 in the bush. Take this years pick.

@Sabres Fan in NS Better late than never!

I'm not sure how many know of the *Tin Can Navy*. The Tin Can Navy roams the high seas in search of submarine enemies. Bouncing around on rolling waves, we tried to send our foes to ocean graves, while defending our liberties. We went without the luxuries, endured despite a few miseries, because of challenges the crew braves in the Tin Can Navy. Our many nautical odysseys to distant places provided the keys to great adventures a young man craves. These days, I ride nostalgic waves across a sea of memories from the Tin Can Navy. The are ex-sailors that served on the old destroyers. You'll find them today as volunteers on Ships such as the Sullivans. Painting, cleaning, maintaining them. Find one, they are easy to spot as they are old and working on the ship. Ask them one question. You'll be there for an hour enjoying every minute. Great people. The last sailor I met was actually on board the Sullivans for her last tour of duty. I met him in the boiler room when I was taking the self guided tour, it's where he was stationed that day and for his time when he served. First hand account of how the ship works with great side stories of life on an old destroyer. Best history class I ever had. Edit. Spell correct hates Sullivans.

This was futile. It proves @LGR4GM right though. We drafted like crap for a decade then tanked.

They didn't have a press conference, they had a press release with selected players driving a narrative. You call that normal, even as bad as the Sabres have been they never did that. If any team should have the Sabres should have. It's why the league and players rallied at the end of the season. We all know what they did and it's the giant white elephant sitting on the NHL right now. Edit: Imagine the Sabres telling the players that we never tanked and to get them to tell that narrative? That is what Vegas is doing.

No. Adding. He looked bad and the team that was predicted to win lost at home would have been taking a shot. And that statement would have also been true.

https://sinbin.vegas/injuries-arent-an-excuse-they-were-the-plan-and-the-plan-failed/ A reporter predicated ridiculous and false things. Then the Knights did exactly what he predicted. They marched their good players out with a narrative.

Did you watch E-Rod last night? He's still the same player as when he was here. He had a blind squirrel start to the season. I think he was no longer getting minutes with Crosby after the all star break.

Harrington is just passing along the stats. We can decide weather it fit's the narrative.

My initial thought is move the UFA date out another 6 months. Instead of Aug 15th of their 4th year, make it February of the following year. Unlike with all the other players in programs that get drafted college kids get a free ride. A premier college program you are treated exceptionally well. They have no financial needs or even wants. Housing, food, training facilities, tutors, transportation all first class. Why leave? Get your degree, wait 45 days past the opening of FA and see what offers come in. The other option is don't use any high draft picks on college kids.

It was a 5k fine. Not nothing, especially for the playoffs.

I would assume that there will be some changes to the way drafting college players works in the next CBA. When the last CBA was drafted a college player was not as highly prized. Times have changed and there are enough first rounders playing college that after you're done playing college losing that first rounder so easily to FA is now becoming front and center to GMs.

BOOOOOO! Thank you for the update.

No games on espn+? That sucks. Going to cancel it right now. The only reason I have it was to watch hockey. Edit Espn+ is showing that the games are available. Really want to watch the Leafs lose.

Dan is a good tv PBP guy. But not a good BPB guy, the best are in radio. I personally think a radio BPB guy is the best to listen to weather on radio or tv. Radio guys see the ice better than I do sitting at home and get that mental picture going in your head as you watch. RJ would call a pass before a player receiving the pass enters the picture frame. RJ got the listener portion of my brain exited before my eyes caught up. It also seems that radio guys get player names correct more often. I'm not talking correct pronunciations, just the correct player no matter how bad they butcher his name.

I was hoping they would find a radio guy that would make the call for both radio and tv. The Sabres would have to look at (OHL?) markets that are radio only to find experienced PBP announcers.