mjd1001

I don't know the numbers up to today, but when you break things down, this is what it looks like: -Goatending (UPL) is better than last year -Overall team defense, especially since Jan 1, is better than last year (eye test and shots allowed) -Goal scoring is only SLIGHTLY off compared to last year with 2 big exceptions that you didn't expect...Cozens and Tage. They are getting chances. They are getting the same number of shots as last year....just they aren not converting, shooting percentage is way down. I know the narrative is there was a major change in coaching that is causing the drop in goals. That might be partially true but it really isn't more than just a small part. Most of the team is scoring at a similar rate to last year (only slightly less)...its just Tage and Cozens aren't hitting the back of the net.

Zemgus with 1 goal in 11 minutes.... Tage with no goals in 17 minutes... Have to check the stats tomorrow, but Zemgus may have caught/passed Tage in terms of even strength goals per 60 minutes played...for 5th on the team. didn't really see....was mostly following the puck when watching it live.

Just a guess....you want someone who is 'quicker' with a good first step to get to a loose puck and knock it out of the zone? With that little time left, not worrying about someone making a good decision on who to cover on a 2-on-1, or making a great breakout pass.....just simply a quick guy to get his stick on a loose puck? I'm probably reaching....

I think its a bit of everything. He is playing well. The forwards aren't leaving wide open areas in the D-zone. Because the forwards are playing better, that helps the D-men to play better/be in better position. They could all be tied into together. It might ultimately be UPL playing better BECAUSE he has more confidence the team in front of him isn't going to hang him out to dry...

Thompson's shooting percentage is dangerously close to going into single digits...after being almost 16 last year and 15 the year before. I HOPE there is an injury he is playing through becuase it just doesn't make sense otherwise. He would have 26 goals this year already if he just shot at the same percentage he did the last couple of seasons. I don't get too far into the analytics/fancy stats.....but the 'eye test' for me shows the forwards are playing MUCH better since January 1st. Its like someone flipped some kind of switch then and the forwards are making a fraction of the obvious mistakes they made until then.

In an effort to make things look as GOOD as possible (because that is what we do here, honestly, we pick and choose stats that make the case we want to make on this forum), you can say its really the last 15 games that he has turned around his game....all around play AND production.... Since the San Jose game Jan 15 for Greenway, which was the first time he scored in almost 3 weeks: 13 games played, 6 goals, 3 assists, +7 (projected over 82 games, 38g, 19a, +44 'pace') Of course that is cherry-picking stats in his last 13 games, but it does show just how productive he has been over that stretch. Lets see if he can keep up production even CLOSE to that for the near future. He's not a Star player. But what makes for 'good' players are guys who can have stetches as good as that....and not have them followed up by stretches of being a liability or totally disapparing. For the season as a whole he is 7th in es goals per 60 (just behind Zemgus and just ahead of Mitts) and 3rd on the entire team in +/- (only Mitts is better among the forwards)

Back in high school (a couple decades ago), I decided to go to community college instead of U.B. right after high school. Everyone criticized me for me, my parents wondered why, a little making-fun-of and jeering from classmates in school....even teachers and my guidance counselar disagreed. Its something that I'm glad I did then, and I think it applies as a good option even much more today than it did years ago. For a lot of 'kids' graduating high school, I think pressure from their parents pushes them away from 2 year /community colleges. I know talkign to some people at work now, if their kids (or grandkids) don't go to a 4 year school, its almost like it is embarassing for the parents/grandparents.

Andreychuk had very good control of the puck with his stick and was a lot quicker with it than Greenway. Not saying Greenway shouldn't do that, but he doesn't have the puck control/stick skills Andreychuk had. Skinner is really the one player on the team that excels in that. He can get a loose puck in front of the net, get off a backhander really quick or be one of the quicker guys to get the puck to his forehand and let off an accurate shot. The problem is, he does't have the size/body to park himself in front of the net. If you could give Skinner Greenways size....or give Greenway Skinner's hands...you'd have an all star, top 5 goal scorer in the league...but alas, that can't be done.

For the system the team SEEMS to want to run, and the one this year it is effective in, yes. Earlier in the year the PK looked very good for a few stretches. The guys on the PK? Tage, Greenway, Samuelsson and Johnson. What do they have in common? The tallest guys on the team with the biggest reach. Why is that important? The Sabres PK is really REALLY bad when they start chasing. When they establish the 4 man box in their own zone, the opposing team passes teh puck around but hardly gets a good shot. The ONLY times they get a good shot is when someone on the Sabres decides to chase or pressure the puck and they get out of position, opening up great chance for the other team. IF you are going to tell your guys to stay discipline and hold their positions to maintain that PK box integrity, the best way to do iit is with big guys out there that can cover a lot of territory with their reach and stick. The current verision of the Sabres PK actually does that well and Greenway is a big part of it.

doesn't UPL have THREE shutouts since January 1st? Not 2? Chi, LA, and San Jose?

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Your explanation is as good as any. A few games, a part of a season, it makes sense, but a couple years of being better on the road? I really am at a loss. You have the last change advantage at home. You are used to the arena, the ice quality, the boards, the locker room. You more often than not have not traveled as much. there are so many little things that add up to, over the LONG run, being better at home. As you said, maybe its a matchup thing. Maybe they play worse against other teams playing a 'road style game'. There is something similar going on with the Leafs. They do poorly against 'bad' teams (Buffalo, Ottawa, Chicago, Columbus), so the fanbase in TO thinks the team doesn't get up for those games. When really if you break down the games, its not the quality of the opponent the Leafs play bad agains...it is the STYLE. If Toronto can easily outskate a team, they usually win. But when they play a young team (a worse team) but one that has raw talent AND forces the Leafs to put in a lot of effort in to outskate/out 'raw' talent them, they don't like that. When Toronto plays a buttoned up/veteran team that 'plays the right way' but maybe has a handful of guys who lost a step, Toronto does well. But put them against many high flying/fast skating, even undisciplined 'bad' teams....that is where they have a problem. The Sabres may have something like that going on but with the style of game teams play on the road.

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As per this message board, this fan base is so divided I have no idea what he could do where you would not lose half the fan base. -It seems like there are some people, just by this thread, who want Zemgus gone and wish it happened yesterday. Yet others (like myself) not only don't want him gone, but would be happy to see him here for another year. -Coaching and GM....some (it seems like the majority at times) are seething that a coaching change hasn't been made yet. Yet others have said they think the issue is other than Granato and don't want him gone...and those posts have more than a few 'likes' to them. Because of the lack of success of this franchise, opinions on what to do are so divided I have no idea what can, or 'can't' be done without alienating a good portion of the fanbase.

its always easy to point out a stat like I am now after a win and after he scores..but for those who say he brings nothing offensively.....I have said BEFORE this discussion about Zemgus that the best way to evaluate bottom of the roster playrs (3rd and 4th liners) is goals per 60. They get less ice time, so goals per 60 es tells you how much they produce for every minute (or in this case 60 minutes they are on the ice.) THIS year, he is now 6th on the entire team. Who is better? Just Quinn, Peterka, Thompson, Tuch, and Skinner. He is better than everyone else. Historically for his career, he is 4th liner (should rank 10th-12th) on the team but he usually is higher. He missed most of the year a few seasons before, but every other going back to the Covid year besides that he was ranked 8th (or tied for 8th) in goals per 60 on the team. Not only does he rank higher than a typical 4th liner on this team, but he is consistently higher than an 'average' 4th liner around the league (this year, and pretty much every other year). So yeah, he doesn't get assists as much. But he scores MORE than a typical 4th liner, he skates well, is a great forchecker, does his job (I'll say this again, on the 4th line is job is LESS to produce offense and MORE to keep the other team in their own zone while your top lines are getting rest), and hes a good (not great) penalty killer (even when he is on the ice PK when a goal is allowed, I RARELY see him as the one out of position). I have been saying this before this thread even started...but I am totally at a loss for words why people want him gone so badly and think it will help the team by subtraction with him gone. It doesn't make sense on almost any level. He's not carrying the team to victories, that is not what I'm saying here...so if he IS gone the team won't all of a sudden start losing a ton more games...but as a 4th liner, he is GOOD. The eye test shows it, the stats show it.

Cozens has the skillset to be a star. Hockey IQ and awareness, not quite there yet.

Yes, that is how I do watch the team. If I have nothing going on, they are about 2 hours of entertainment. If I have some stuff to do, often times the game is still on and its 'background noise' while I work around the house or work on the computer. I only really get slightly upset if I see a game that they lose and is low scoring. Yes, I want the team to win, get better, make the playoffs, etc. But i'm MORE invested in each individual game than I am in the entire season as a whole...because that is exactly how I view them...2 hours of nightly entertainment. Not much more. I think the fanbase is split into two categories...and many of the arguments on this forum between posters is based on that. Some demand changes because of the long playoff drought, the desire for the team to go deep into the playoffs. We all want that, but a portion of the fanbase, well, that is why you watch sports, to win the championship. Others are able to look at things more positively even when the team is losing, because they are a night-to-night fan, rather than a whole-franchise/season-to-season fan.

He is shooting just as much as he did the last 2 seasons combined, just his shooting percentage the last 2 seasons was almost 50% higher than it is this year. If his shooting percentage was equal to the previous 2 years, he'd be on pace for about 45 goals this year. Hope it IS the wrist, and that is something that can get better.

Serious question...what 'type' of talent plays better at home than on the road?

I see where you are coming from at least. Dahlin, Power (whether we want it or not) and Samuelson are going to get their huge minutes. Jokiharju usually gets above average minutes. The top 4 (at least the top 3) on this team WILL get those minutes because of what they invested in them, and they are still young so they need experience. That leaves less minutes for the bottom 3 (or bottom 2, depending on Jokiharju). So, all things being equal, I'd LOVE a good, veterain, top minute (and likely top dollar) guy. But when balancing budget and ice time, the balance between how much use you will get out of a good forward (Mitts) or a good D-man....well, spending $6-$7m on each, you might get more value out of that forward with the way the minutes are split up on this blueline. I think the going-rate for Mitts will be at last $6m per season, more than likely even higher...and as 'good' as he is, I don't see him as a difference maker. But if he is an important part of the team...yeah, those decisions have to be made.

Isn't Tanev in his mid 30's, older than Johnson? Not sure I'll have to look it up. I'd be ok with bringing in an older vet on a 1 year deal. Ideally, a 27-29 year old, REAL top 4 guy with 400-500+ games NHL experience would be perfect, but no-one wants to give up those guys. But if you can find an older Vet willing to take 1-2 years, I'll all for having one on the roster. Johnson hasn't been great, but I don't think he has been as bad as many say.

I agree on Krebs. I know some players take a few years to show what they really are. I know Krebs stats are similar to, or maybe even better than other players at his age (Thompson, maybe Mitts). But after the initial feeling of being happy the Sabres got a top prospect/first round pick at the time of the trade, I really haven't seen anything from him that stands out at all. He seems slow. He rarely wins a loose puck battle. Several times on the backcheck his lack of speed just makes him 1/2-1 step away from getting to the eventual goal scorer. I hear on this forum he has great vision and hockey sense, but I just don't see it get used in the games at all. So like usual, I am hoping he step up his game. But on a game-to-game basis, I see nothing from him (yet) that makes me think he is anything more than a borderline AHL/NHL guy in the long term. Show me a speed burst even if it doesn't result in a goal. Go into the corner every once in a while against a vet and take the puck away (once a game maybe). Hustle back and be the reason a 2-on-1 turns into a 2-on-2 against and a scoring chance is taken away. Make a good pass once or twice a game that leads to a scoring chance, even if the guy you passed it to doesn't convert it. I am not even seeing many of those 'flashes'.

I'm in 95+% agreement with you. Johnson is young, we saw last game what CAN happen when a young guy has a bad game. Its probably good they are bringing him on slowly. Power? He SHOULD be very good/great in the long run, but most got a little too high on him last year, he needs time, he needs experience. The rest of the group is at least NHL level. Maybe they are on a 2nd pair when they should be 3rd pair guys....but that is better than in the past when we had borderline AHL/NHL guys playing major minutes. One more legit top 4 addition to this team (even if trading top prospects for him are needed) along with more experience for everyone (yes, even Dahlin is young), and this squad could be very good in the near future.

My intent of the post was to say you aren't getting $2.5m worth of performance/games out of him (especially because he does miss games due to injury), but I don't think there is an obvious improvement for him. This team had room under the cap. If you could sign/find a guy who was going to be better for sure, then sign him. But, If you can't find a guy better (and that is my main point) I don't get rid of Zemgus to replace him with an 'equal part' to save $1m per year while this team is under the cap. Again, if there IS a guy out there for $2.5m who is better than him who is willing to take that 4th line role on this team then sure. But who is that guy that they turned away? I haven't even heard rumors of who it might be....so with that being said, Give me Zemgus for whatever you are paying him (as long as its a 1 year deal) than just putting some other replacement level player in there.

I agree with a lot of what you said. As mentioned earlier, some fans are just at the end of the rope with wanting this team to make the playoffs. I get that. I am there at some times. But I have found out that I am happier as a fan, happier as a person when I view the team as entertainment for 2 hours a night and not get too caught up on when are they going to win the cup. I don't think this team needs wholesale changes. I for sure don't think it needs to be blown up. The single biggest issue I think this team has is how the forwards play in their own zone, my target has been Cozens. And in the past month or two, they have gotten drastically better. Its a small sample size, but to me that is 40% of the problem with this team. I'm hopeful it has been fixed. Even in their losses lately, you can't watch the games with your own eyes and not notice the forwards are making a LOT less mistakes than they were for the first part of the season. The majority of the other issue is scoring. Again, mostly Tage and Cozens, but I really think this roster is not as good scoring as they were last year, but they are better than they have been this year. I believe in UPL as a legit NHL starter. I don't get myself tied up in a knot over the performance of the 4th line...and I think Okposo is done after this year anyway..and I like Girgensons play as a 4th liner. This is the youngest D-corp in the league and D-men take time to learn the game, they are going to get better with games played and I don't think they have been awful this year (Despite the Johnson and Johnson game yesterday which may have been the worst game by a D-pair I have ever seen) So what changes would I make? Get a top 2-3 level D-man. That is the hard part, but that would be my #1 priority. Change how the Power play executes...how I'm not sure..but what I am sure is that it isn't working so do something different (different assistant coach?) Bring in one more forward who you think can get you 20 goals a year AND is a full speed ahead, pest, maybe drops the gloves without having his face messed up guy. That and the top 2-3 d-man are hard to find, have to trade some prospects to get it, go ahead. But Blow it up? Change the coach and GM? For me to think that it is nothing more than an emotional reaction. Do the above and I'm 100% happy going into next season. I like this thread because I sometimes personally have a hard time with the level of vitriol on this forum for heads to roll. Based on this teams history over the past decade it might be the right amount of hate, but for me its just too much at times. I sometimes get criticized for 'not seeing what is really going on with this team' because I tend to support some players and coaches more than others want, but that is jut some of us trying to find some positiive things.