mjd1001

I can't blame Adams for giving UPL the contract last year. I know some didn't want it, but based on how he played, his age, his pedigree...I would have done the same thing. Going into this season with UPL as the starter, Levi a full year in Rochester, and Reimer as the backup actually was a good plan to me and probably exactly what I would have done. I just don't think many expected UPL's play to drop off SO much from last year. Yeah, he was a top 5 goalie in the league the 2nd half of last year...maybe you didn't expect THAT to continue, but I certainly did not expect his play to drop off so much.

Maybe the reason he is playing poorly is because he was trying to hard as you said above. That may be true...but if it is...it still leads to him not being good enough. You don't want it to happen again to another goalie, and it may not be UPL's fault..but he is playing so poortly it is currently an issue for this team. A lot of the success last year was due to UPL's good play at the end of the season. He was one of the top 5 goalies in the league the 2nd half of the season. From Jan 1 last year until the end of the season, UPL had 4 shutouts, 25 games with a save percentage over .900 (including 9 games in a row at one point), and 19 games with a save percentage about .920. And they weren't all easy games. 15 times he faced over 30 shots, a couple times over 40 shots. Only 2 times did he have a save percentage of .850 or less. A 25 game to 2 game ratio in his favor of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below. This year since Jan 1, he has 1 shutout, only 8 games with a save percentage over .900, and only 6 with a save percentage over .920. 10 games he has a save percentage below .850. A 8 game to 10 game ratio against him in terms of of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below. Maybe the team plays differently in front of Reimer, but since Jan 1, Reimer has played in 8 games. 7 of those 8 he has a save percentage over .900. (and those games are among games against Edmonton, Carolina, Winnipeg, and Ottawa, and NONE of the bottom 5 teams in the league) For those saying UPL's failures this year are a result of how bad the team is in front of him....the numbers on Reimer aren't just with 1 or 2 games anymore...once you get to 8 games played, you have to wonder is it REALLY the team just sucking in front of UPL but not in front or Reimer? or is it actually UPL? I don't want to get rid of UPL yet. We know he has it in him to potentially be a very good goaltender. It actually happened last year. But he has been a major problem with this team this year. Get to the offseason. If you have a phantom injury let it heal. Get your head back on straight. Because while I want him to probably be the starter next year, if he plays next year like he has this year, then there is a major issue. Its not all on the team in front of him, most of his issues are his.

Bernard-Docker has some points early and that is good...but I still need to see a lot more from him. I am rooting for him to be good of course, but when I watch him play, I don't really see anything yet other than a 3rd pair/7th guy. Still happy with the trade overall. I think the team needed to move on from Cozens....and Norris? If he has something lingering shut him down. Get him as healthy as he has been in years even if that means we don't see much of him until next season.

For the analytics fans: Kulich-Benson-Thompson line had the best numbers. They were well into the positive territory with both Fenwick, Corsi, shot differential and scoring chance ratio. All other 3 lines were negative in all of those areas. Peterka-McLeod-Quinn line by far the worst analytics. They did have a goal, but scoring chances were 3 for them and 8 allowed, High danger chances were 1 for and 7 allowed. Expected goals were almost 6-1 in Ottawa's favor when they were on the ice.

UPL playing worse than last year...I still think is in the top 3 reasons why this team wasn't in contention. Reimer is not the long term solution obviously, UPL needs to be better.

I don't think that many more. At 37, going on 38 years of age, I just think Reimer needs a little more time off between games.

Had that assist but finished a -2 on the night. Maybe there is just something about the KeyBankCenter that brings out the worst in his game?

It was an entertaining game for the most part. McLeod again with over 20 minutes of ice time. NO other forward with any more tahn 17:06.

Samuelsson actually takes Cozens to the ice. I would almost expect a scrum after that, at least a little one...but once Samuelssson saw it was Cozens, and Cozens did or said nothing back to Samuelsson...nothing.

Rasmus Dahlin vs the rest of the D-men tonight on the statsheet so far: Shots: Dahlin 4, everyone else on defense combined 3. Hits: Dahlin 5, everyone else combined 3. Giveways: Dahlin 1, Everyone else combined 7. Takeaways: Dahlin 1, everyone else combined 1.

McLeod with over 18 minutes of ice time with 8.5 minutes left...leading all forwards. He is again getting well over 20 minutes....first line minutes/usage for the last few games and counting.

Both games still going on, but the Pennslyvania teams losing by a combined 12-2 right now.

Can't find the article, not sure if I read it on here or the news feed on my phone... But did anyone else read the article about Helenius in Rochester this morning? They compared him to Kozak...saying that Helenius at this point in his career has to not worry about goals or points...Leone said when you look at Kozaks game it doesn't matter if he scores much or not because he does everything else right.

When they have played together this year with McLeod (in limited minutes) that line is a +1 goal differential. When Peterka and Quinn have played together with a different center, they are a -4 goal differential. Not much time with McLeod between them, but maybe his play/speed/positioning will do well for those 2 as his wingers?

The 'overthinking' is what people think paying him like a good 3c is. Wide variety of opinions on that topic.

He most certainly was a major problem. Whether you want to say it was the fault of the organization for the situation they put him in, or the losing just got to him....the REASON may not be all on him, but her certainly was a HUGE problem in why this team was bad. The posts are out there, but he made mistake after mistake, he was a minus player, just about everyone that played with him got worse..etc. etc. I wished it would have worked with him here. He seemed like a nice kid/guy. But they never really tried him at wing and he sunk this entire team playing at center while here.

I really think part of moving Tage to wing was to open up more ice time for McLeod and Kulich. It was about the time Tage moved to Wing that McLeod started to get more ice time. I know Lindy at one point earlier in the year criticized Cozens and Tage's play away from the puck at Center. But since he has moved to wing, I don't see much of a difference in his play. His play away from the puck. His production. His scoring chances. Everything I see is he is pretty much the same. No better, no worse at either position. If that is true, that means you put him in a position that allows you to put OTHER guys where you want them. Tage is giving you the same at Wing or Center? Great, we can move him to wing and give McLeod and Kulich more time at Center then.

I don't think that gets it done. Mind you, I would love for him to accept that. If he did I'd be happy. I just think, especially with the cap going up so much next year and projected for further pretty large increases, he will require a bit more. Thats about 5% of the cap. I think they are going to have to go to about 6%. Especially because the Sabres are sending him a message right now that not only is he not a #3 Center, he's a #2 for sure and currently is getting first line minutes. Its going to be hard for them to offer him a short-ish deal as he enters the prime of his career for 5% of the cap when he is getting used as much as he is, and producing in that role. I don't think hardly any team in the league gets away with 5% of the cap on a 3 year deal for a guy who is getting you close to 20 goals and 50 points in a season, who plays center, is one of your better 2-way guys, and is only 25 years old.

The problem is you have to pay him this offseason. A little projection is needed. If you don't trust Adams, that is why you have analytics depts. If they could make a case to pay him only as a 3rd liner going forward, I'd like to see that case. Very few people in this league get paid on their 'career averages', its based on what will you do for me going forward.

I'll keep on going back to this..for those who think he is a 3rd line center. An average/typical 3rd line guy in the NHL, if they play a full 82 games, gets 35 points. Even with regression McLeod is showing it is likely (not definite, nothing is) but likely he is better than that. Add to that the fact that he seems to play pretty well away from the puck, and he is a positive player...I'm not sure how anyone thinks entering his prime years you can 'get away' with paying him 3rd line money. 3rd line players, again, average 35 points. 3rd line players, even on 'good' teams, are usually even players in goal differential or slightly positive. He is way ahead of those productions number and he is a positive goal differential guy on THIS team, that says something. I'm not saying to give him nearly 8.5% of the available cap next year (like you did to Cozens), but throwing out numbers that are only about 4%-5% of the cap I think are crazy low.

James Reimer had glory days? I get your overall point, but it just goes to illustrate how sub-par the Goaltending has been this year with this team.

See,I'd be OK with Mcleod in that position seeing how I think he is pretty good defensively and away from the puck. Now, if you sign him long term and he ends up being a 10 goal, 20 assist guy long term, then you have an issue. I admit that. I just don't think he'd revert to that level.

You are saying 20G and 55-60 points. That isn't just what most 2nd line centers/players get around the league. One guy who did a lot of research came up with 2nd line guys getting no more than 50 points over a full 82 game season..and if an average guy misses a handful of games, that total is under 50: https://www.arcticicehockey.com/review-of-production-based-on-time-on-ice/. The 2nd line in his study gets .61 points per game (McLeod is currently at .64) Over the season so far, Mcleod is averaging about 20 seconds less per game ice time compared to a typical 2nd liner (mostly due to his reduced ice time earlier in the season), so if you break that down to points per 60 minutes, his numbers are even more ahead of the league average guy (slightly). As for the conversation of 2nd line vs 3rd line....Your typical 3rd line forward/Center across the league averages about 35 points over a full 82 game season. McLeod is going to be way ahead of that. No reference I can site but to add to it some may remember between games last year on HNIC they talked about this (near the trade deadline) and said that over the last few years the average goal total of a 2nd line player was just under 20 goals. A quick search on the internet shows (with references sited) that typical 2nd line players get from 40-55 points total in a full season, but that some of them who are better defensively maintain 2nd line minutes with less points than that. (see screenshot below). So, the average team in the NHL seems to have 2nd line players that get about 20 goals and 20-25 assists. If McLeod gives you that, and is above average defensively, then that is one position you are at or better than league average at. A little somewhat-scientific research. I looked at last year (the last full season) and looked at the top 4 teams in the regular season (obviously all playoff teams) and wanted to see what their 4th,5th, and 6th best forwards scored on average: -Rangers (Presidents trophy last year): averaged 22 goals (with a good number of PP minutes for those guys) -Dallas (2nd overall last year): averaged 25.6 goals (again, A LOT of PP time and PP goals) -Carolina (3rd overall): averaged 19 goals -Winnipeg (4th overall) averaged 19.6 goals Those are the top 4 teams last year....the league average across the entire league for the 2nd line guys last year was just under 20 goals. So again, 18-20 goals and 24-25 assists, last year, was close to both the league average and median for those 2nd line guys. McLeod looks to have better offensive numbers than that this year. He would be an 'above average' 2nd line guy in terms or production this year. Even if he regresses a little, he is still in 2nd line territory. I realize this is a bit non-scientific, but lets look at this year. Just to keep things simple, there are 32 teams and 3 spots on each line. So scoring guys #1-96 are first line guys. Guys 97-192 in scoring are 2nd line guys. The middle/median of that 2nd line group this year in goals is currently 16 goals. The median in terms of points is 38 total points. Right now McLeod is at 17 goals (1 above the median of the leaders in guys 97-160) and 42 points (4 above the median in that group), and he is doing that with less average ice time/opportunities. I would submit as my personal opinion he is pretty darn good defensively away from the puck (one of the better forwards on the Sabres)...so again, he can regress a little bit from this years level and still be a pretty good 2c. So what is my point with all of the above? That a 2C for a typical team, and a typical team often is good enough to make the playoffs, doesn't need to put up 20 goals. They can be in the 15-20 goal range (the lower end if they are good defensively) and if you get those 15-20 goals, most 2nd line (certainly the average/median) guys are NOT even reaching 30 assists, let alone 35-40. Of course teams all would want a 2nd line guy that gives you a guaranteed 20 goals and 55-60 points. But the reality is that many teams, many playoff teams have 2nd line players and 2nd line centers that produce less than that.

I know an old thread, but just noticed this: Before the trade deadline, Pettersson: 55 games, 11 goals, 24 assists (82 game pace of 16 goals, 36 assists, 52 points) Since the Deadline, Pettersson: 9 games, 4 goals, 6 assists, (82 game place of 36 goals, 55 assists, 91 points) Not much of an issue to the Sabres anymore, but just interesting to see if he keeps up the newly accelerated pace.

One more positive to look at McLeods game. He does what he does without having Dahlin on the ice with him. There are a few people here who still don't hold Dahlin in that high of regard, but to many of us, he is the best player on the ice. Almost EVERYONE has better numbers, better metrics, better goal differential when playing with Dahlin compared to anyone else on defense. McLeod has only 31.3% of his ice time with Dahlin). McLeods analytics are worse (obviously) without Dahlin with him...but if you just give him a bit more time with Dahlin, his numbers would be much better. For comparison, Tage has almost 44% of his time (even strength) with Dahlin backstopping the team behind him. 31.3% vs almost 44% is a pretty big difference. When you add to that the fact McLeod doesn't get much PP time, the numbers are even bigger considering that. So in the grand scheme of things, does it mean a lot? Maybe not. But if most of the board think the 3rd pair, Samuelsson and Power have been pretty bad defensively....Well, McLeod plays more time with those guys behind him and less with Dahlin.