nfreeman

This isn't Sophie's Choice here, my friend. Just take a guess and predict something.

As always, this is not what you want to have happen -- this is what you think is going to happen. I'm torn on this one. On the one hand, Moulson's contract ($3MM total actual cash for the next 2 years; $10MM in cap hit) would be very Vegas-friendly if they in fact expect to struggle to get to the floor, and I'd expect JBott to work hard to try to get Vegas to take Moulson, and McPhee allegedly owed GMTM a favor, and Moulson has family ties to McPhee...and on the other hand, Moulson stinks and I have to believe Vegas will get better offers to take albatross contracts from other teams. I also think Carrier is pretty close to JAG, while Ullmark and Bogo have more upside, and Bogo and Gorges would play right away and probably fill bigger roles than Carrier. Also, Vegas could probably unload Gorges at the deadline for a draft pick. I think Bogo's contract makes him an NFW. I'm gonna say Moulson because of his contract and out of faith in JBott. But I'm not confident.

Well, that's what happens when you leave SabreSpace for several months. Your juices run dry.

I agree that $3.5MM per year is not reasonable. I was thinking $4MM to $4.5MM per year x 2 years. I can see it being pushed to 3 years. I think longer than that would be a real mistake (and I will note that 2 of the 3 contracts you mentioned were 3-year deals).

Well, I suppose the pitch would be "new GM, new coach, you'll get a good annual salary guaranteed for 2 years and if we like what we see during the 1st year, we'll give you a fat extension on July 1 before the 2nd season," or something like that, ...with of course the tactfully delivered but unmistakable underlying message including "you're an RFA, your only option is the KHL, so the only real option you have is to prove yourself to JBott and make him feel like he needs you there to backstop his young team on the rise." I too think he has it in him, but the "expose/dump Ennis" faction here isn't being unreasonable. It's at least 50/50 that he doesn't get back to 45+ points. I really think 4 years is too long. I'd be very surprised if it ends up at 5.

And the Talented Mr. Ripley, and Boogie Nights, and pretty much everything else he was in (including one of the Mission Impossibles). He lives in my neighborhood. I've seen him around a number of times, including in a restaurant a couple of months ago.

Thanks gents. I agree -- a 2-year "prove it" deal is called for here. I read that it was "Bowl-you", with emphasis on 1st syllable.

I think it's about 40% likely that he turns out to be an average starter, about 30% likely that he's well above average, and about 15% each that he's either a washout or a star. And for that, there is NFW I want to commit to $4MM x 4 years or even 3. The team was historically bad when Ennis was coming into his own in the NHL. He's missed the better part of 2 years with injuries but before that he had elite speed, good to very good hands and a nice edge. Carrier IMHO is a nice crash-bang forechecker who has a decent hockey IQ and zero hands. I would much rather lose most of the Sabres' other unprotected guys, but at the same time if Carrier is taken and isn't easily replaced by Baptiste/Bailey/Fasching, then the Sabres whiffed on all 3 of those guys. I agree with most of this, although I think you oversimplified about Ennis' significant cap hit not counting. The Sabres can't just drop him on LTIR whenever they like. It has to be for a significant, long-term injury.

Interesting question. Does anyone know when he becomes a UFA? If it's next summer, then I'd think he'll get a 3-year deal.

Well, I think the price that Vegas will charge to take Moulson or Bogo off our hands will be too high, so I think they'll most likely take Carrier, and if not him then Ullmark.

No real surprises.

It's fairly likely that they'd rather have Vegas take Moulson or Ennis than Bogo -- but that Vegas would prefer to take Bogo.

My prediction: 4-4-1 ROR, KO, Kane, Zemgus Risto, McCabe, Beaulieu, Bogo Lehner

I don't find Harrington's uninformed musings in any way indicative of what the Sabres might do.

I'm going to say there is NFW they leave Beaulieu unprotected.

What was it about JBott that gave you this vibe? I think it's probably reasonable to assume that people don't need to be instructed to "think about it." Also, 0.38 is not 0.8 more than 0.30.

Broken Arrow was a very good and underrated action thriller with Slater and post-Pulp Fiction John Travolta.

When you put it that way -- first, it's kind of a bummer that we only have 3 forwards worth protecting, and 2nd, it does seem fairly likely that they'll decide to go 4-4-1 and protect Bogo instead of those 4 JAG forwards.

But there's also the real value of getting Vegas to take one of the albatross contracts -- which is a bigger factor than keeping/losing Ullmark, IMHO.

So at this point, Vegas will likely choose one of Ullmark, Moulson, Ennis or Bogo, right? I still think they'll take Ullmark unless JBott pays them not to do so. What's it worth to keep Ullmark and for Vegas to take one of the other 3? The other 3rd-rounder? I think I'd pay that but not the Sabres' 2nd-rounder. What about a prospect? Would it be worth Carrier or Baptiste?

Very nice. Good post. Keep them coming! Good call, but I think I'd still rather expose Bogo than Beaulieu.

Also -- he's an RFA this summer, having just finished a 2-year deal at $1MM per year.

Totally agree that this is a smart value move. As for Bogo -- I'm skeptical that they'll give anything to Vegas to protect Bogo. It occurs to me that they think Vegas will take Bogo -- and that this is why Howie has been talking up Moulson and Ennis -- i.e. because they think they'll be stuck with those 2 (and not Bogo). Well, our confidence about JBott isn't really important IMHO. What is important is adding guys like Antipin and the FNG into the mix to give the Sabres more bites at the apple. Yes -- #17 overall in 2011. He's also 6'2, 205 lbs and it sounds like he's a good skater.

So this means they protect Risto, McCabe and the FNG, right? And expose Bogo?

A 2nd team in Toronto would be bad for the Sabres. This too.