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So basically two shifts in the model: you used actual player games missed histories instead league averages. you didn’t adjust for typical growth/decline patterns. And we still can expect an offence in the league’s top half without Greenway and Norris getting healthy. Interesting. Maybe there’s more there than it appears.

That is a whole lot of what ifs there but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I'm pretty sure I know the ending to this story as it's been replayed over a decade and a half now and like my good friend at Shawshank once said "Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane".

Of course not, he’s actually saying the opposite. He saying there’s no simple direct correlation between JJ’s goals and wins and losses. There’s a butterfly effect with every move: Maybe Tage slumps to 25 goals without JJ Maybe Power explodes for 60 points with Kesselring Maybe Rosen takes JJ’s slot and scores 28 goals too, but with better defence Maybe Benson and Kulich don’t score any more than this year, and with elevated minutes are even worse at defence than JJ was.

Losing Peterka hurts but I agree with @LGR4GM in this regard. The team is at best fractionally better with a trade of offensive pop for a bit more responsible play in theory. I understand being jaded, I understand not trusting anything they do but I can’t exactly dwell on that while also trying to enjoy and cheer for my favorite team. So I much rather approach this with a glass half full and possibly delude myself into believing they have a legit shot at the playoffs because anything else destroys the entire premise of being a fan. I’m high cynical in many aspects of my life while working with government/finance stuff so I can’t approach this with a similar mindset or I’ll go completely nuts.

I looked at the Sabres top 20 skaters averaged their number of games played over 3 years (where available) and goals/GP. For players with less than three years, I used their last 2 seasons if full time (like Benson and Kesselring). For the rookies, like Kulich and Doan, I took last season and just used their goals/GP * 75 games. I also only used the last two seasons for Norris. I arrived at only 254 goals.

Are you saying 30 GA are a direct correlation to JJ Peterka? If so I find that very hard to believe since that is what your defense is there for.

Well said

I think our goal total will go down. Not specifically because of Peterka but in part. We're not better, just different.

Peterka had a positive team relative plus minus last season. They didn't need to ship out Peterka to fix how they defend... it's not one or the other. Capable front offices address their weaknesses without sacrificing their strengths.

Hope is not a strategy.

Dahlin and Thompson I guess 😛

I think Power is going to have a bit of a jump this year, mainly in consistency. Benson will have a small jump as well. Quinn is the wildcard.

I worry Thompson might lose a few goals without a Peterka level player in the lineup. I also fear a regression from Zucker. Hopefully Quinn can be what we thought he was, and hopefully Norris, Kulich, and Benson all chip in. I've been burnt far too many times to get my hopes up on any of this though. And we still need at least one of Levi, Lyon, or UPL to be a real NHL starting goalie. Unfortunately, I'm especially jaded this isn't going to happen. It'll be exciting however if it does.

It's obviously more nuanced but how many players has Adams kept hold of that have more or less asked to leave?

Pretty sure you're giving Adams "we only want guys that want to be here" a bit too much to heart.

He always has leverage here; love the kid but to get him to sign originally allegedly required promised time in the NHL during his "1st year" Now while he's certainly embraced his time in Rochester now; bringing in Silovs would of just pissed him and/or his agent off. Complain enough and Adams would trade him, but he can't since he hinged much of his past 5 years on developing Levi to be our 1G and he isn't one to deviate

Yeah but Levi has value still in any trade, and lets say Levi comes and is better than him, you can still get same value back for Svilos. Im sure we thinking the same, but im drunk and well ***** you kevyn.

Seems like an appropriate return for a Top 3 defenseman. I mean, we sent a first line winger for someone not as flashy has Byram. This guys scores goals, but does he play defense? Or is he in the mold of a JJP?

"According to Evolving-Hockey, last season, (Benson) was in the 98th percentile in defense among all NHL skaters." Benson will pace at a 60pt season

Doan in defensive stats probably and Ohlund for rookie of the year 🙂

But that's not how it works. And you're only looking at 1 side of the equation. If they took away 27g but also shipped out 30ga, they are up +3. I'm not saying they did that, just that finishing 16th in goals for versus 8th matters as much as finishing 4th in GA and moving to ??? Also they dumped Cozens 11g for Norris and Kulich picking up that ice time, I've stated repeatedly I don't believe we lost 27g although year to year goal totals vary so unclear where we come out, especially if Buffalo decides to play defense this year.

Indeed. I'm not saying to hide it. I'm just saying that's how our world works. There is a cabal of power brokers who steer much of the world events. No chance in hell we'll ever see that list.

Dahlin isn’t good playing defense? Interesting. And it’s not like the Sabres aren’t going play a player in JJ’s place. I’m not optimistic but I’m not irrationally negative either

Levi has ZERO leverage. How was he going to keep from re-signing? Is he going to get a career in whatever his major was his 2 years at Northeastern?

Equipment sale and open house.