Who Is Our Best Goalie?

[bob_sauve28]

Who? 

[Taro T]

Tough question to answer because IMHO UPL is adequate, even kinda good, at home but isn't close to good enough on the road.  

At home, especially if the team can be limiiting chances early like they often do, would go off the board and say it's UPL.

On the road, one of the other 2.  Expect most will say Ellis, but personally expect it's likely Lyon.  They're different, but the results there are fairly similar.  Just believe that Ellis playing a more controlled game gives him an edge; though can see wanting Ellis' reflexes to try to steal you a save.  And, should he continue to get regular action, expect he could pass Lyon (if he hasn't already) with more experience at the NHL level.

[msw2112]

I have no idea, and sadly, neither does the coaching staff.  Ellis is the guy we know the least about, as he's only played a handful of NHL games.  Outside of getting shelled in one or two games (which all of them have) Ellis seems to be demonstrating the most upside.  He seems to have quicker reflexes and is more capable of making a clutch save.  Lyon appears to be the most technically sound, but has the least upside and the least physical ability.  UPL - very hard to get my head around his game.  All I can say is that he rarely make the save that he isn't supposed to.  If it's a breakaway, 2 on 1, guy alone in the slot, etc., the puck is as good as in the back of the net.  These goals are not really the goalie's fault, as the defense allowed a bad situation, but he never rises above it and steals one.  That said, based on draft status (which all of the "experts" agreed on at the time - he was not a reach by the Sabres), and one great 1/2 season at the NHL level, he SHOULD be the best of the three.  He just isn't.

Edited 3 hours ago by msw2112

[PromoTheRobot]

Ellis, Lyon.....UPL.

1 minute ago, msw2112 said:

I have no idea, and sadly, neither does the coaching staff.  Ellis is the guy we know the least about, as he's only played a handful of NHL games.  Outside of getting shelled in one or two games (which all of them have) Ellis seems to be demonstrating the most upside.  He seems to have quicker reflexes and is more capable of making a clutch save.  Lyon appears to be the most technically sound, but has the least upside and the least physical ability.  UPL - very hard to get my head around his game.  All I can say is that he rarely make the save that he isn't supposed to.  If it's a breakaway, 2 on 1, guy alone in the slot, etc., the puck is as good as in the back of the net.  These goals are not really the goalie's fault, as the defense allowed a bad situation, but he never rises above it and steals one.

If you are trying to trade a player you can't act like you have no faith in him.

[msw2112]

5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Ellis, Lyon.....UPL.

If you are trying to trade a player you can't act like you have no faith in him.

While that's true, I have two points.  1.  Ruff is trying to win hockey games, not showcase a goalie for a trade.  He's going to play who he thinks gives the team the best chance to win (whether he's correct or not is another story).  2.  The Sabres are not fooling anyone.  NHL GM's have seen UPL play, they've seen his stats, they know the size of his contract, etc.  He is who he is and there are no secrets.  Could another team overvalue UPL because he's 6'5", had a high draft position, and plays for a terrible defensive team?  Sure.  But I don't think that would have much to do with how the Sabres are acting.  GM's also know Lyon's history and know that Ellis was a waiver-wire acquisition.  So the Sabres aren't getting much back in a trade for any of them.

Edited 3 hours ago by msw2112

[Weave]

Is it not cool that I voted the same player for all 3 questions?

[mjd1001]

As far as stats go, there are wins, but that is more of a team stat.

GAA, save percentage, and others, but Goals saved above average is the most encompassing. (Expected goals which includes the shots weighted by the location/quality of the scoring chance, +/- the actual goals allowed). Basically its not 100% perfect, but it takes into account the defense in front of the goalie making mistakes as those mistakes lead to shots that are of higher quality.

So far this year, goals saved above average:

Lyon +2.14   Ellis +0.19   UPL -2.33

The numbers show the performane this year favors Lyon first, Ellis 2nd, and UPL third.

Now, Ellis had ONE game that was a lot worse than all of his others. Take out each goalies single worst game, and it raises Ellis the most.

In terms of how reliable of a stat is it? Well, the one thing is it is a 'total' stat (meaning the more games you play, the greater the opportunity you have for a higher number), but in the past 2.5 seasons, the best in the league in this number are: Hellebuyck, Vasilevsky, Stolarz, Logan Thompson, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Gustavsson, Oettinger, and Kuemper.

The worst Goalie over that time period? Georgiev.

My 2nd favorite number is what is the goalies High Danger save percentage (basically, how good are you at making tough saves, like when your team in front of you had their heads in the clouds and leaves you out to dry).

-The best in the league the past 3 years (minimum 50 games played over the last few years combined): Spencer Knight, Hellebuyck, and Sororkin.  

How do the Sabres rank this year?  Lyon .800  Ellis .780, UPL .746

Edited 2 hours ago by mjd1001

[Sidc3000]

[Night Train]

Hasek...

wait...what was the question ? 

[transient]

I voted UPL worst. I didn't vote for the other two because none of them have shown to be adequate long term. UPL's flash several seasons ago combined with Adams extending him has led to this quagmire of hockey without a legitimate goalie and a seeming unwillingness (inability) to move on from him. Watching UPL in the crease is like Groundhog Day, with Sabres fans the Bill Murray character dropping the toaster in the bathtub and still waking up to "I Got You, Babe" the next morning.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Levi

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Is it not cool that I voted the same player for all 3 questions?

It makes all the sense in the world here.

35 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Levi

You should actually watch a few of his Amerks games

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Tough question to answer because IMHO UPL is adequate, even kinda good, at home but isn't close to good enough on the road.  

At home, especially if the team can be limiiting chances early like they often do, would go off the board and say it's UPL.

On the road, one of the other 2.  Expect most will say Ellis, but personally expect it's likely Lyon.  They're different, but the results there are fairly similar.  Just believe that Ellis playing a more controlled game gives him an edge; though can see wanting Ellis' reflexes to try to steal you a save.  And, should he continue to get regular action, expect he could pass Lyon (if he hasn't already) with more experience at the NHL level.

It almost seems they are afraid to expose Ellis to too much action, too soon. I suspect in the long run he is the best of the group 

[Taro T]

26 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

It almost seems they are afraid to expose Ellis to too much action, too soon. I suspect in the long run he is the best of the group 

Maybe.  But, they were going to play Ellis in TO but he had a stiff back so they went with UPL instead.  And they gave him 3 consecutive starts and he spit the bit in that 3rd game.

Have no idea what they're thinking on the goalie situation.  For a short while there, they were in the give a guy the next game if he won the last one.  Not sure if they're fully out of that or not, because they don't win often enough to tell.

You would think that with all the experience they've had running a 3 headed monster the past few years that Bales would have an idea on how to run a 3 man rotation; but really don't get the impression that there is any plan there.  Yeah, they're running with "the guy that gives them the best chance to win on any given night" but there really doesn't seem to be any obvious rationale as to how they're making that determination.  And it also doesn't seem that they give any consideration to the possibility that letting a guy not play for 3 or so weeks will get him out of any rhythm he might've had and now he WON'T give them the best chance to win on the particular night that he MIGHT actually have been the one to give them the best chance to win that night.