2025-26 Sabre season projections

[LGR4GM]

What's really interesting is that a bunch of the projections have Sabres making the playoffs. 

 

[inkman]

You know what they say, you don’t play the games on paper…er…in the charts…er…electronically? 

[Jorcus]

It seems like a lot of these surveys really under rate the Montreal Canadiens. It would not shock me to see them win the division. Hutson is a year older, They added Dobson, and Demidov looks like the next Patrick Kane. They are the fastest team in the East and the goaltending is decent and has some depth. What am I missing?

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

It seems like a lot of these surveys really under rate the Montreal Canadiens. It would not shock me to see them win the division. Hutson is a year older, They added Dobson, and Demidov looks like the next Patrick Kane. They are the fastest team in the East and the goaltending is decent and has some depth. What am I missing?

I'd guess their forwards and depth defense don't grade out that well. 

[SabreFinn]

1 minute ago, Jorcus said:

It seems like a lot of these surveys really under rate the Montreal Canadiens. It would not shock me to see them win the division. Hutson is a year older, They added Dobson, and Demidov looks like the next Patrick Kane. They are the fastest team in the East and the goaltending is decent and has some depth. What am I missing?

I think Montreal will have big problems in defensive zon, both on pk and 5v5. Players like Dvorak, Armia and Heineman are not flashy, but they did a dirty job that also should be done by someone. Habs will realize that pretty fast imo.

[GASabresIUFAN]

No goaltending, no playoffs.  

[dudacek]

Posted about this elsewhere, but the discrepancy between the hockey math nerds and the hockey talking heads is striking when it comes to the Sabres.

[steveoath]

Wood be absolutely hilarious if the Atlantic ended up like the evolving wild prediction

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Posted about this elsewhere, but the discrepancy between the hockey math nerds and the hockey talking heads is striking when it comes to the Sabres.

Personally, I think the truth is someplace in between.

2 hours ago, Jorcus said:

It seems like a lot of these surveys really under rate the Montreal Canadiens. It would not shock me to see them win the division. Hutson is a year older, They added Dobson, and Demidov looks like the next Patrick Kane. They are the fastest team in the East and the goaltending is decent and has some depth. What am I missing?

When I watch Montreal, yes, they play fast, but they seem to not have much of a 'half court' game in the offensive zone.  Whether on the PP, or just setting up in the offensive zone, their skill doesn't seem to be that high in terms of cycling the puck and generating good scoring chances.  Off the rush they are OK, but their entire forward group just doesn't mesh in terms of playmaking once they establish the offensive zone.

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[North Buffalo]

https://www.nhl.com/news/vegas-golden-knights-dallas-stars-favorites-to-win-stanley-cup-nhl-writers-say

No one has Sabres making playoffs... seems about right... need to prove it.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Jorcus said:

It seems like a lot of these surveys really under rate the Montreal Canadiens. It would not shock me to see them win the division. Hutson is a year older, They added Dobson, and Demidov looks like the next Patrick Kane. They are the fastest team in the East and the goaltending is decent and has some depth. What am I missing?

Scoring.  They only scored 243 last season and had a -18 differential.  They scored 22 less goals than the Sabres.  

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Posted about this elsewhere, but the discrepancy between the hockey math nerds and the hockey talking heads is striking when it comes to the Sabres.

This is just a hypothesis. The discrepancy can be chalked up to this: The analytics community uses data that produces a likely outcome and relies on the general assumption of all other things being equal, while hockey fans and media recognize that all other things are, indeed, far from equal.

I think it can be fairly stated that no team in NHL history has started a season under greater risk of circumstances quickly eroding into here we go again territory, than the 25-26 Sabres. I think the analytics community, while utilizing history to generate projections, does not account for the weight of history and expectation, whether that be the pressure that comes with expectations for success, or the apathy that can be generated by expectations for failure.

Of course, some of that here we go again burden, could have been lifted had the owner brought in a new GM and HC combo. Which leads to a second factor: No team in NHL history has started a season with a more demonstrably proven to be bad at their jobs, combination of owner, GM, and HC than the 25-26 Sabres. I won't get into how unprecedented it would be for a trio in their positions of leadership with their collective records, to work together to produce a winning product that lasts beyond a season, but, let's just say, it has never happened before. 

After all that, I'm actually finding myself in the odd position of being cautiously hopeful about the team making the playoffs this year while also having zero long-term optimism. The Sabres have some really good players.  A couple who are elite.  Teams with less talent, even in the modern 32-team NHL, make the playoffs all the time. So, I am excited about the start of the year and am eager to see how this goes. But, I have no enthusiasm for the future of the franchise. This is because I know from history that people who are this bad at what they do, don't suddenly get it all figured out. The only longer-term hope for the franchise is that the owner has some luck and finds a hockey version of McDermott and Beane; sadly, a playoff run in 25-26 is likely just to delay the possibility of that happening anytime soon.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Scoring.  They only scored 243 last season and had a -18 differential.  They scored 22 less goals than the Sabres.  

How are you missing 2goals? -20 and 245gf for Montreal. Buffalo has 24 more at 269.

[inkman]

3 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

https://www.nhl.com/news/vegas-golden-knights-dallas-stars-favorites-to-win-stanley-cup-nhl-writers-say

No one has Sabres making playoffs... seems about right... need to prove it.

The level of respect this franchise deserves.  The charts can’t smell this org rotting from its core. 

Edited 7 minutes ago by inkman