Are we wrong about the Defense?

[Palm Trees And Taxes]

2 hours ago, WhenWillItEnd66 said:

Ok, nice pretty pictures, but they make my head hurt. I watch the games, defense and goaltending SUCK. No graphs needed!

Its both that need to be used: Watching the game and seeing that the goaltending and some of the defense suck is still very valuable but i also like the charts as sometimes they tell other stories about this team: The defense isnt as good as it seems, or as bad as it seems.

Analytics and eye test should and can exist.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Jets have made the playoffs 7 times of the last 8 years. Of those 7 appearances, Hellebuyck has played well enough to advance beyond the first round 3 of the 7 times. 

No room for making the playoffs and winning rounds on the Buffalo Sabres 

And? The exception that proves the rule? Yzerman is the clear statistical outlier along with Adams. We have tried every “strategy” at one point or another. Showing me the failure behind door number 3 ala Monty hall doesn’t prove anything: there will always be a fail we can point to 

I don't honestly care. Hellebuyck isn't available. And 3/8 is only 37.5% although tbf, that's not all on Hellebuyck. 

To the Yzerman point..  what? Your counter argument to "get more high floor guys" is that Yzerman doing just that and failing is an outlier? I don't agree. Buffalo has both high floor and high ceiling players. They missed the playoffs because their only good defender got hurt and UPL turned back into the player he's basically always been. Sure, add more high floor guys to the defense or the bottom 6. I'm good with that. But that's not why we're here. At least impo.

8 minutes ago, Palm Trees And Taxes said:

Its both that need to be used: Watching the game and seeing that the goaltending and some of the defense suck is still very valuable but i also like the charts as sometimes they tell other stories about this team: The defense isnt as good as it seems, or as bad as it seems.

Analytics and eye test should and can exist.

They should but just like puck moving defenders can be physical, here to often it's 1 or the other. 

[LGR4GM]

Analytics original job was to give market inequities and capitalize on them. A lot sports ppl forgot that along the way. 

[Ctaeth]

Too much faith is put in UPL based on one portion of a good season.  Aside from one portion of one year (a contract year at that).. he's been pretty bad.  Letting UPL continue as a number one is a hope based strategy.  You hope that he plays better than he historically has...

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I don’t disagree with this. Better is better. But, how much of Samuelsson and Clifton being bad is coaching and system related? How much better would they be on Dallas?  I look around the playoffs and see all kinds of d-men who were seen as journeymen, castoffs, not good enough, in some cases by the Sabres (Stecher, Klingberg, Sandin, Benoit, McCabe, Lyubushkin, Ceci, Petrovic, Collin Miller, Gostisbehere, Schmidt, Kulikov, Mikkola).  It feels a little to me like our need to improve the 4th line and then watching Okposo win a cup and Robinson and Girgensens play in the playoffs while Malenstyn, Lafferty, and Aubé-Kubel all underwhelm (to be charitable). I’m not advocating for no player changes. I’m just skeptical that the talent of the type of player we are most likely to bring in, will overcome the bad coaching and system and culture that they will encounter here. 
 

 

Very thoughtful response.

There are a variety of responses that when melded together should help this prostrated franchise get on its feet. @dudacek makes a strong case that improving our netminding would be very impactful. The Washington Capitals replaced their backstops from the market and added Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren for miniscule prices. That's what a good and enterprising can do and is paid to do. Is our GM capable of exhibiting similar wise market acumen? I'm skeptical about that. 

And as you illustrated with your list of blueliners, there are a number of attainable players to choose from that can better reshape and balance our unit. Can we afford to keep Byram with his expected contract demand? What is his value on the market if shopped? There is no question that Samuelsson's contract is higher than his production level. But that doesn't mean that this often injured player can't improve his game. 

@Thorny pointedly notes that an increase in goal production should/could overcome the existing defensive deficiencies. If one believes that our young forwards (Quinn, Kulich, Peterka and Benson) have more to draw from, then a large part of the solution might have an internal source. On top of that, there is an expectation  that Norris should be more productive than Cozens, the player he was traded for. 

I don't want to inflate this team's current talent level. However, I don't believe that a dramatic change has to be made in the roster composition to make this team a playoff team. When you look at the inventory of our tradeable assets that include players, prospects and draft picks and what is needed to upgrade this roster, it appears to be reasonably doable. The issue then becomes is our hockey staff up to the task? That's where I become very troubled.  

 

[JoeSchmoe]

I haven't watched him but I've heard only positives about Novikov. He's been the far and away +/- leader on ROC the last two seasons.

What kind of assignments is he getting? Could he be the guy that gets Clifton a regular spot in the press box next season?

[Palm Trees And Taxes]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

They should but just like puck moving defenders can be physical, here to often it's 1 or the other. 

Exactly, and this is why this Byrum decision IMO is so crucial. Dahlin and Power are already getting top $, do the Sabres really want to have a 3rd that offers a skill set that might just be a little too much overkill for this defense group? Should the Sabres move BB for the right defenseman that has some term and some experience that can help Power especially? Or Trade Power? Buyout Samuelsson? Such a huge off season IMO on how this franchise will look the rest of the decade.

[JP51]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

But does the defense look worse because of Goaltending as opposed to the prevailing theory that defense made gt bad?

Stats are great... but honestly, the chances this D gives up especially at critical times they are bad... to make it better our goaltending sucks too...  They are honestly both bad...In addition, they do not play complimentary hockey with the forwards, the are terrible on faceoffs... horrible in the clutch, dont control the puck down low... So much wrong with this team.... I do not think you can exclusively blame the defense... but they are certainly part of the problem.  Stats are a great prelim... they eyes are as well.

Edited 3 hours ago by JP51

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Stats are great... but honestly, the chances this D gives up especially at critical times they are bad... to make it better our goaltending sucks too...  They are honestly both bad...In addition, they do not play complimentary hockey with the forwards, the are terrible on faceoffs... horrible in the clutch, dont control the puck down low... So much wrong with this team.... I do not think you can exclusively blame the defense... but they are certainly part of the problem.  Stats are a great prelim... they eyes are as well.

Im not sure the Sabres were that bad on faceoffs this season. 

[JoeSchmoe]

The D was bad. UPL was worse. If we had Reimer level play in net all season this discussion would be vastly different.

[JP51]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Im not sure the Sabres were that bad on faceoffs this season. 

LOL now thats where stats come in... I do remember Ruff on multiple occasions lamenting our poor faceoffs... maybe it improved at the end of the season... I dont know... but it seemed we lost critical ones.. a lot... 

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

The D was bad. UPL was worse. If we had Reimer level play in net all season this discussion would be vastly different.

The big question becomes whether Reimer is capable of playing at the same level if given a heavy workload. I'm not sure that he can. What I can say is that it would be a big risk to again assume that UPL can be a primary goalie for us. That would be a big risk. 

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

My eyeballs tell me I watch the games in and games out guys just standing around while pucks are in the back of the net. How many times did we watch Power not take a man in front of the net or our whole defense just allowing guys to park right in front of our goaltender? That's not just a 1 player upgrade and goalie problem, thats a defensive system problem/ a toughness problem etc. imo.

 

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Hi. Hello. 

I've been beating my fist on the table to change up the defense. I've argued that we need 3 new defenders and others have been very critical as well... but what if the defense isn't bad, it's just the goaltending was truly atrocious. 

You may be thinking, "wtf are you talking about Liger?!" Hear me out though. Let's talk about WAR. Ooo yea what is it good for? Absolutely SOMETHING.  

WAR stands for wins above replacement. The idea being what if you could replace a player with your average NHL guy at the same spot. I was shocked to find this chart while reading about the Redwings. You may notice that Buffalo isn't near the bottom. In fact we're pretty good. Some of that is Dahlin is truly special and some of that is they only pulled the 6 guys with the must TOI so that limits our analysis but what if this defense group is actually fairly good, just unlucky because of atrocious gt? 

What if the answer is simple? Switch out 1 defender and upgrade UPL? Is there some modicum of hope that this team actually isn't *****?

https://mystaes.substack.com/p/why-the-detroit-red-wings-missed

 

Analytics don't always line up with reality. As @GoPuckYourself points out, how often do we see our D standing around watching as opponents get behind them and score? I think the Sabres need at the very least an attitude adjustment on defense.

[Thorny]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Analytics don't always line up with reality. As @GoPuckYourself points out, how often do we see our D standing around watching as opponents get behind them and score? I think the Sabres need at the very least an attitude adjustment on defense.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Analytics don't always line up with reality. As @GoPuckYourself points out, how often do we see our D standing around watching as opponents get behind them and score? I think the Sabres need at the very least an attitude adjustment on defense.

What? That's honestly nonsense. You might misinterpret analytics or not have enough data to form the full picture but to claim they don't align with reality is just hogwash. 

23 minutes ago, JP51 said:

LOL now thats where stats come in... I do remember Ruff on multiple occasions lamenting our poor faceoffs... maybe it improved at the end of the season... I dont know... but it seemed we lost critical ones.. a lot... 

There's basically no correlation between team win% and faceoff win% I haven't looked in 2 years but bad faceoff teams aren't the non playoff ones. 

Edit: I looked it up. Buffalo was 7th worse in FO%. Calgary, Minnesota, and Colorado were all worse. 

Edited 3 hours ago by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I'd rather pay Byram $7.4M than Mule and Clifton the same.

I realize its not that simple.

But keeping the overpaid bad players instead of overpaying the good one seems pretty Sabres-y

Well, that's the thing.

Yes, Dahlin could very well be better with a more traditional defensive D partner in the mold that Samuelsson is SUPPOSED to be.  BUT he and Byram WERE really good together.  Keep that pairing with Dahlin now actually in his prime and Byram FINALLY just about there as well.  (Only 2 years of Byram here, but when you throw in all the years of Mittelstadt developing it makes for a really friggin' long time in the "growing pains" department.)  Sure, look for the defensive guy that can fully unleash Ras, but while you're looking, run with what was working.

That's 24-26 minutes a night that's fairly well locked down.

If Power recovers and improves as he gets closer to his prime, that's another 23 minutes a night.  So, you're looking at finding 34 minutes of ice time between your 4 and 5 D and 13 minutes a night from your 6 IF there are no PPs at all.  Get 3 PPs and you've shaved nearly 6 minutes off how much the bottom 3 need to play.

Maybe Bernard-Docker is your 4.  He might be, he might not be; didn't see enough of him to say for certain.  But figure out who should be the Power partner and then you need to add one or TWO low cost veterans that are actually useful (and the league is FULL of 3rd pairing guys; pretty much everybody ELSE can find them each year) and let Johnson and Novikov be the true 7 & 8 (with Bryson & whomever holding the press box spots and covering for a game or 2 until you can get the kids into town when injuries hit) and they SHOULD be able to play 13 or so minutes without killing you.

The team CAN NOT afford to have Dahlin out.  But the rest are replaceable; it's just when Byram or Power are out you're giving your bottom 3 more minutes than you want.

 

BUT none of THAT matters as the team sure does seem h*ll bent on getting rid of Byram.  So, they don't just need to find Power's partner (presuming it isn't B-D) but also, and more importantly, need to find Dahlin's primary partner.  (And with the minutes he eats, he isn't just riding one guy.)  So, friggin' frustrating.

[JP51]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What? That's honestly nonsense. You might misinterpret analytics or not have enough data to form the full picture but to claim they don't align with reality is just hogwash. 

There's basically no correlation between team win% and faceoff win% I haven't looked in 2 years but bad faceoff teams aren't the non playoff ones. 

Edit: I looked it up. Buffalo was 7th worse in FO%. Calgary, Minnesota, and Colorado were all worse. 

So no stats... just observation... I think faceoffs can be over rated at times... i also think if you are a team that struggles with puck possession and play the man poorly that losing face offs more often than you win requires you to play in a place that you are not good more often...  where a team that being strong on the puck and corner play is their strength I dont see it being as big of an issue. 

[Taro T]

48 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I haven't watched him but I've heard only positives about Novikov. He's been the far and away +/- leader on ROC the last two seasons.

What kind of assignments is he getting? Could he be the guy that gets Clifton a regular spot in the press box next season?

Went to 1 game.  Noticed that Novikov hadn't been noticed at all, late in the 2nd, so made of point of watching him play.  The reason he hadn't been noticed is he didn't carry the puck at all.  All he did was shut down darn near every single rush the opponent made.

He really looks like he'll be a good one.  And would expect he'll be an injury call up pretty often this year.  That said, would like his to start the year in Rochester.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, JP51 said:

So no stats... just observation... I think faceoffs can be over rated at times... i also think if you are a team that struggles with puck possession and play the man poorly that losing face offs more often than you win requires you to play in a place that you are not good more often...  where a team that being strong on the puck and corner play is their strength I dont see it being as big of an issue. 

I've done the stats before. If you run a regression with faceoffs and win rate there's basically no correlation.

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres are 27th in xGF against. That's atrocious. 

[dudacek]

58 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I haven't watched him but I've heard only positives about Novikov. He's been the far and away +/- leader on ROC the last two seasons.

What kind of assignments is he getting? Could he be the guy that gets Clifton a regular spot in the press box next season?

 

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Went to 1 game.  Noticed that Novikov hadn't been noticed at all, late in the 2nd, so made of point of watching him play.  The reason he hadn't been noticed is he didn't carry the puck at all.  All he did was shut down darn near every single rush the opponent made.

He really looks like he'll be a good one.  And would expect he'll be an injury call up pretty often this year.  That said, would like his to start the year in Rochester.

He sure plays a safer game than Clifton. And he’s just as mean and far bigger.

Issue is his feet: are they fast enough to keep up with the Mitch Marner’s of the world and is he smart enough to compensate.

At the AHL level he is exactly the type the Sabres seem to lack at the NHL level.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

He sure plays a safer game than Clifton. And he’s just as mean and far bigger.

Issue is his feet: are they fast enough to keep up with the Mitch Marner’s of the world and is he smart enough to compensate.

At the AHL level he is exactly the type the Sabres seem to lack at the NHL level.

Well, basically, what you've described is Samuelsson about 6 years ago.  Definitely don't want to see him rushed and want him to be partnered up with a vet when starting out to let him get acclimated the right way.  But, not convinced that vet is currently on the team.  (And see finding a partner to break him and Johnson in at the NHL level as a MUCH less pressing issue than finally getting the top 4D right.)

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

That's the other thing... what if we just paid Byram and let him play with Dahlin?

Then we have 3 Dmen making over 7.5mil and only 1 of them being independent.

Byram needs Dahlin to be effective, Power likely is in the same boat

Neither can step it up, apparently, when Dahlin is hurt and even just hold the line briefly nor does Power & Byram work as a pair very well. 

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Then we have 3 Dmen making over 7.5mil and only 1 of them being independent.

Byram needs Dahlin to be effective, Power likely is in the same boat

Neither can step it up, apparently, when Dahlin is hurt and even just hold the line briefly nor does Power & Byram work as a pair very well. 

So many nuances missed here.

In 3 years, the cap hit of the average NHL player will be a tick under $5M: Dahlin 11 Power 8 Byram 8 leaves $8M to stay on average. That means rounding out your core with 2 $3M players and 2 $1M players, with the option of using some of your Tage savings to spend on an upgrade, if you want. The cap hit is hard now, it will be the opposite long-term.

Power was a positive player - largely without Dahlin - in each of his first two seasons. We shouldn’t forget that.

Byram couldn’t anchor the first pairing of the Buffalo Sabres for 7 games without Dahlin is a far cry from Byram needs Dahlin to be effective.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by dudacek

[Jorcus]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

He sure plays a safer game than Clifton. And he’s just as mean and far bigger.

Issue is his feet: are they fast enough to keep up with the Mitch Marner’s of the world and is he smart enough to compensate.

At the AHL level he is exactly the type the Sabres seem to lack at the NHL level.

I mean how fast does he have to be? He should not play more than 2 feet over the blue line. I know this is not fair because when you have experience it can make up for lesser skating ability but some how the 40 year old Brent Burns gets up and down the ice. I know this much he can clear the crease and pin a guy behind the net.