Are we wrong about the Defense?

[LGR4GM]

Hi. Hello. 

I've been beating my fist on the table to change up the defense. I've argued that we need 3 new defenders and others have been very critical as well... but what if the defense isn't bad, it's just the goaltending was truly atrocious. 

You may be thinking, "wtf are you talking about Liger?!" Hear me out though. Let's talk about WAR. Ooo yea what is it good for? Absolutely SOMETHING.  

WAR stands for wins above replacement. The idea being what if you could replace a player with your average NHL guy at the same spot. I was shocked to find this chart while reading about the Redwings. You may notice that Buffalo isn't near the bottom. In fact we're pretty good. Some of that is Dahlin is truly special and some of that is they only pulled the 6 guys with the must TOI so that limits our analysis but what if this defense group is actually fairly good, just unlucky because of atrocious gt? 

What if the answer is simple? Switch out 1 defender and upgrade UPL? Is there some modicum of hope that this team actually isn't *****?

https://mystaes.substack.com/p/why-the-detroit-red-wings-missed

 

[GoPuckYourself]

My eyeballs tell me I watch the games in and games out guys just standing around while pucks are in the back of the net. How many times did we watch Power not take a man in front of the net or our whole defense just allowing guys to park right in front of our goaltender? That's not just a 1 player upgrade and goalie problem, thats a defensive system problem/ a toughness problem etc. imo.

Edited 1 hour ago by GoPuckYourself

[LGR4GM]

Speaking of goaltending:

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Ok, nice pretty pictures, but they make my head hurt. I watch the games, defense and goaltending SUCK. No graphs needed!

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, WhenWillItEnd66 said:

Ok, nice pretty pictures, but they make my head hurt. I watch the games, defense and goaltending SUCK. No graphs needed!

But does the defense look worse because of Goaltending as opposed to the prevailing theory that defense made gt bad?

[dudacek]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

But does the defense look worse because of Goaltending as opposed to the prevailing theory that defense made gt bad?

Why not both?

 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, dudacek said:

Why not both?

 

Sake of conversation 

[WhenWillItEnd66]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But does the defense look worse because of Goaltending as opposed to the prevailing theory that defense made gt bad?

For the Sake of conversation, not to argue, it is a bit of both. Our defensive inability to stand players up and or clear the front of the net is always on high display. As much as i have been a fan of UPL him flopping around and overplaying the puck on many occasions makes him a liability. Now i will say as much as folks beat up on Power, his game play the last 25 improved dramatically to the eye. He is never going to be a physical dman, but he played more responsibly. The Sabres inability to let players mature and simmer in Roch does not help either. 

Edited 1 hour ago by WhenWillItEnd66

[dudacek]

I really think the Athletic player cards do a good job of illustrating the Sabres issues on defence:

• Dahlin Value: $12.3M * Cost: $11.0M * Offence ranking 99% * Defence ranking 90%
• Byram Value: $5.3M * Cost: $3.9M * Offence ranking 69% * Defence ranking 48%
• Power Value: $4.7M * Cost: $8.4M * Offence ranking 62% * Defence ranking 45%
• Samuelsson Value: $2.1M * Cost: $4.3M * Offence ranking 21% * Defence ranking 46%
• Clifton Value: $0.8M * Cost: $3.3M * Offence ranking 30% * Defence ranking 13%
• Bernard-Docker Value: $4.2M * Cost: $0.8M * Offence ranking 42% * Defence ranking 60%

Dahlin is an absolute stud, Power and Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively), Samuelsson is adequate defensively and bad offensively and Clifton stinks

The problem is we have one good defensive defenceman and two starters who aren't good on either end. (I'm not sure about those JBD numbers).

To me this shows an obvious solution: invest the $7.6M we pay Mule and Cliffy into two guys who are above average defensively.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I really think the Athletic player cards do a good job of illustrating the Sabres issues on defence:

• Dahlin Value: $12.3M * Cost: $11.0M * Offence ranking 99% * Defence ranking 90%
• Byram Value: $5.3M * Cost: $3.9M * Offence ranking 69% * Defence ranking 48%
• Power Value: $4.7M * Cost: $8.4M * Offence ranking 62% * Defence ranking 45%
• Samuelsson Value: $2.1M * Cost: $4.3M * Offence ranking 21% * Defence ranking 46%
• Clifton Value: $0.8M * Cost: $3.3M * Offence ranking 30% * Defence ranking 13%
• Bernard-Docker Value: $4.2M * Cost: $0.8M * Offence ranking 42% * Defence ranking 60%

Dahlin is an absolute stud, Power and Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively), Samuelsson is adequate defensively and bad offensively and Clifton stinks

The problem is we have one good defensive defenceman and two starters who aren't good on either end. (I'm not sure about those JBD numbers).

To me this shows an obvious solution: invest the $7.6M we pay Mule and Cliffy into two guys who are above average defensively.

One thing. You can't do this last part and pay Byram and Power.

[DarthEbriate]

Unless I'm wrong, and I'm never wrong, we're headed dead into the Fire Swamp discussion of a lack of physicality.

Last season, the goaltending was poor. Reimer was fine (league average-y) and everyone else was just plain bad. Their skaters did them no favors though.

1 new defender could be enough, but it has to be Power's partner, RHD, capable of playing 22 minutes/night and killing penalties at a high level. Maybe one of these grizzled semifinals playoff teams will get disillusioned by an "early" exit this year and figure they need someone with better wheels --- ever-desperate Vegas moving Whitecloud, for example, to keep up with their competitors for next season.

General fixes:

1. Forwards need to be better in their own zone. In position, active sticks, win more puck battles, and if nothing else, get it out and make RJ happy. Removing Cozens and his chasing was a good start.

2. D-men cause more offside. It feels like, Power especially, our D should be much better at negating rushes at the blueline by stepping up and using their reach and causing that extra stickhandle to force opponents offside. Limit the easy entries

3. D-men tie up sticks and box folks out. So many deflections and free rebounds. 

4. Power throw 1 hit. One attacking downhill hit on some hapless winger getting the puck in his own zone along the sidewall and turning up ice OR one winger wheeling around behind the Sabres net and crushing him from the other side. Get out of position, get called for charging, leave his feet, it's all OK. Just attempt one body check that's out of character so he learns it won't hurt, it won't be the end of his career -- even a fight afterward, he can turtle bravely -- it'll all be OK. Because if he doesn't learn in the regular season, he'll disappear in the postseason and the team can't have that.

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I really think the Athletic player cards do a good job of illustrating the Sabres issues on defence:

• Dahlin Value: $12.3M * Cost: $11.0M * Offence ranking 99% * Defence ranking 90%
• Byram Value: $5.3M * Cost: $3.9M * Offence ranking 69% * Defence ranking 48%
• Power Value: $4.7M * Cost: $8.4M * Offence ranking 62% * Defence ranking 45%
• Samuelsson Value: $2.1M * Cost: $4.3M * Offence ranking 21% * Defence ranking 46%
• Clifton Value: $0.8M * Cost: $3.3M * Offence ranking 30% * Defence ranking 13%
• Bernard-Docker Value: $4.2M * Cost: $0.8M * Offence ranking 42% * Defence ranking 60%

Dahlin is an absolute stud, Power and Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively), Samuelsson is adequate defensively and bad offensively and Clifton stinks

The problem is we have one good defensive defenceman and two starters who aren't good on either end. (I'm not sure about those JBD numbers).

To me this shows an obvious solution: invest the $7.6M we pay Mule and Cliffy into two guys who are above average defensively.

Curiosity has me wondering about the rankings of Bryson and Jokiharju as well.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

One thing. You can't do this last part and pay Byram and Power.

In theory you can if you identify low-cost, high-value defence-first players like this model thinks of JDB.

In practice you are probably right

[triumph_communes]

Yes, goaltending has been way below bar. Even beyond defense

 

Thing is there’s such a mental game back there- defender isn’t going to take that extra lunge if he doesn’t trust his goalie to stop a beach ball. He’s going to block every shot and get out of position if he follows the Ruff way and thinks he has to do it himself. The goalie is also going to be distracted and unable to track anything if defenders aren’t covering the sides because they’re concerned about what’s in front. It all falls apart quick 

 

I think the easy solution here is to look at what happens when the goalie gets replaced with an aging vet- Anderson last season. Reimer this season. Suddenly everything fell into place

 

So yes, I blame goalies first by far. That’s why Levi is so damn important. 
 

The conundrum is whether a goalie can ever build his confidence while having defense who don’t trust them in front of him or not?  Most goalie take a long time to season and I thinks it’s all mental here, so no I think they truly do need to season for longer to get their confidence in the right place. 
 

we need some defense but it isn’t the key. It’s Levi

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Unless I'm wrong, and I'm never wrong, we're headed dead into the Fire Swamp discussion of a lack of physicality.

Last season, the goaltending was poor. Reimer was fine (league average-y) and everyone else was just plain bad. Their skaters did them no favors though.

1 new defender could be enough, but it has to be Power's partner, RHD, capable of playing 22 minutes/night and killing penalties at a high level. Maybe one of these grizzled semifinals playoff teams will get disillusioned by an "early" exit this year and figure they need someone with better wheels --- ever-desperate Vegas moving Whitecloud, for example, to keep up with their competitors for next season.

General fixes:

1. Forwards need to be better in their own zone. In position, active sticks, win more puck battles, and if nothing else, get it out and make RJ happy. Removing Cozens and his chasing was a good start.

2. D-men cause more offside. It feels like, Power especially, our D should be much better at negating rushes at the blueline by stepping up and using their reach and causing that extra stickhandle to force opponents offside. Limit the easy entries

3. D-men tie up sticks and box folks out. So many deflections and free rebounds. 

4. Power throw 1 hit. One attacking downhill hit on some hapless winger getting the puck in his own zone along the sidewall and turning up ice OR one winger wheeling around behind the Sabres net and crushing him from the other side. Get out of position, get called for charging, leave his feet, it's all OK. Just attempt one body check that's out of character so he learns it won't hurt, it won't be the end of his career -- even a fight afterward, he can turtle bravely -- it'll all be OK. Because if he doesn't learn in the regular season, he'll disappear in the postseason and the team can't have that.

Curiosity has me wondering about the rankings of Bryson and Jokiharju as well.

Jokiharju 26% O, 56% D. That seems to combine his Boston and Buffalo play, but it doesn't explicitly state that.

Bryson is 17% O, 3%D, 2nd-worst ranked skater in the Atlantic Division, ahead of only Ryan Reaves.

Edited 46 minutes ago by dudacek

[Archie Lee]

I think we are potentially wrong about both the defense and the goaltending. That doesn’t mean upgrades aren’t warranted. Of course, better players would be better. But, there is a world where I could see the following as a playoff calibre back end as soon as this year:

Dahlin/Power (could be an elite pairing)

Byram/Clifton (ok together late in season)

Samuelsson/BDocker (third pairing, fine)

UPL (needs a bounce back)

Levi (is he ready?)

What I struggle to imagine, is this being good enough with Lindy Ruff as our coach.  His teams have been very bad defensively for most of the years since he left Buffalo and there is no assistant on the current staff who we could count on to successfully take over the responsibility for our defensive structure. If I had to bet on the players or the coaching staff, I would bet on the players. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The defense is terrible and the goaltending is just as bad if not worse.  

We allowed the 8th most high danger chance against last season (763), 3rd most the season before (793), and the 4th most in 22/23 (881). So while this improved it's still in the bottom 3rd of the league and coupled with bad goaltending, is it any wonder this team hasn't progressed?  

No add we allowed the 4th most shots against and the 11 most Scoring chances against and you have more evidence of an inept defense.  Now add a terrible Penalty Killing (only 76.3%).

I have more hope for a rebound in UPL or Levi taking over than I have in the defense as constituted.  I'm ok with running back Dahlin, one of Power (of Byram) and seeing what JBD is, but after that the rest need to go. 

 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Yes, goaltending has been way below bar. Even beyond defense

 

Thing is there’s such a mental game back there- defender isn’t going to take that extra lunge if he doesn’t trust his goalie to stop a beach ball. He’s going to block every shot and get out of position if he follows the Ruff way and thinks he has to do it himself. The goalie is also going to be distracted and unable to track anything if defenders aren’t covering the sides because they’re concerned about what’s in front. It all falls apart quick 

 

I think the easy solution here is to look at what happens when the goalie gets replaced with an aging vet- Anderson last season. Reimer this season. Suddenly everything fell into place

 

So yes, I blame goalies first by far. That’s why Levi is so damn important. 
 

The conundrum is whether a goalie can ever build his confidence while having defense who don’t trust them in front of him or not?  Most goalie take a long time to season and I thinks it’s all mental here, so no I think they truly do need to season for longer to get their confidence in the right place. 
 

we need some defense but it isn’t the key. It’s Levi

This is what I've been thinking about a lot as well.

The Sabres need to be better defensively, but they are able to outscore that when they get good goaltending.

Replace 2025 UPL with 2024 UPL and we're in the race, in my opinion

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively)

They aren't adequate defensively.  

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Hi. Hello. 

I've been beating my fist on the table to change up the defense. I've argued that we need 3 new defenders and others have been very critical as well... but what if the defense isn't bad, it's just the goaltending was truly atrocious. 

You may be thinking, "wtf are you talking about Liger?!" Hear me out though. Let's talk about WAR. Ooo yea what is it good for? Absolutely SOMETHING.  

WAR stands for wins above replacement. The idea being what if you could replace a player with your average NHL guy at the same spot. I was shocked to find this chart while reading about the Redwings. You may notice that Buffalo isn't near the bottom. In fact we're pretty good. Some of that is Dahlin is truly special and some of that is they only pulled the 6 guys with the must TOI so that limits our analysis but what if this defense group is actually fairly good, just unlucky because of atrocious gt? 

What if the answer is simple? Switch out 1 defender and upgrade UPL? Is there some modicum of hope that this team actually isn't *****?

https://mystaes.substack.com/p/why-the-detroit-red-wings-missed

 

W-I-l-f-o-r-d would be a start. Forwards buying into supporting the defensive end. An upgrade in net.

All these things would help the D Corps tremendously.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They aren't adequate defensively.  

🤷‍♂️ In a league where 1/2 the players are below 50%, 45% and 48% seems like the definition of adequate to me.

Edited 33 minutes ago by dudacek

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I think we are potentially wrong about both the defense and the goaltending. That doesn’t mean upgrades aren’t warranted. Of course, better players would be better. But, there is a world where I could see the following as a playoff calibre back end as soon as this year:

Dahlin/Power (could be an elite pairing)

Byram/Clifton (ok together late in season)

Samuelsson/BDocker (third pairing, fine)

UPL (needs a bounce back)

Levi (is he ready?)

What I struggle to imagine, is this being good enough with Lindy Ruff as our coach.  His teams have been very bad defensively for most of the years since he left Buffalo and there is no assistant on the current staff who we could count on to successfully take over the responsibility for our defensive structure. If I had to bet on the players or the coaching staff, I would bet on the players. 

Inevitable reminder that Dahlin Byram was already the most elite pair in the NHL this year by a wide margin — even with UPL in goal — and nobody cares.

[Pimlach]

The goaltending has to improve.  UPL was inconsistent, when he plays better we win more.  Reimer had a nice late season stretch but you don't bank on that for next season.  Levi is a gamble for next season.  

The Team defense is bad.  That includes the forwards.  Lindy complained about his centers not playing enough 2 way hockey.  For long stretches the team did not look like they were playing together, especially in the defensive zone.   The team loses puck battles way too often and the team goes long periods with poor puck possession time which is a reason for the blown leads.   Better coaching, some tougher two way players, and better player understanding of what they are trying to accomplish.  These are signs of young team that gets pushed around and is mentally unable to bear down and win close games. 

The 6 defensemen are decent on paper but lack the diverse combination of skills that winning teams have.  We have said this for a long time - Too many puck movers, not enough body movers.   They traded away Joker, they brought in Bernard Docker.  He is bringing back Bryson.  Adams should stop dabbling with D5, 6, 7, and 8 and get some help to the top 4. 

Top 4 - Dahlin, Muel, Power and Byram.   Dahlin is excellent.  Byram played some good hockey but apparently is not coming back, the first real sign of how bad the Power contract is right now.    Power gets to stay because of his pay and his draft pedigree, not for his performance or for inspired play on the ice.  Muel had a rough year.  He is injury prone, seems below average on the PK, and physically he does not bring the game that we need from a big defenseman.  

Muel and Power both greatly underperformed last season.   This team needs top 4 help.   Can this GM move Byram and improve the roster?  Can he get the right complimentary pieces for Dahlin and Power?   It's been a question for a long time. 

Edited 27 minutes ago by Pimlach

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Inevitable reminder that Dahlin Byram was already the most elite pair in the NHL this year by a wide margin — even with UPL in goal — and nobody cares.

That's the other thing... what if we just paid Byram and let him play with Dahlin?

[DarthEbriate]

10 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

What I struggle to imagine, is this being good enough with Lindy Ruff as our coach.  His teams have been very bad defensively for most of the years since he left Buffalo and there is no assistant on the current staff who we could count on to successfully take over the responsibility for our defensive structure. If I had to bet on the players or the coaching staff, I would bet on the players. 

There is this, as well.

He's coached 15 seasons since Briere/Drury left town and has had a playoff team 5 times. The playoffs are an outlier for when his team has an abnormal blip in defense/goaltending before plummeting back into the bottom third of the league the following year. Maybe that's enough for the Sabres fan base, though. Make the playoffs once and then disappear again for 2 years while Ruff gets replaced.

[GASabresIUFAN]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

🤷‍♂️ In a league where 1/2 the players are below 50%, 45% and 48% seems like the definition of adequate to me.

I think it means they are average at best, but mostly below average.  What are their numbers away from Dahlin.  JBD at 60% is adequate.  Having one good defenseman (Dahlin), 1 adequate one (JBD) and the rest below average or worse is not a recipe for success.  The team stats, as I mentioned above, show that this team is below average defensively.  The number 5 on 5 in SA, SCA,HDCA have been consistently bad the last 3 years regardless of goaltending.   Bad goaltending just makes a bad problem worse.   

 

Edited 6 minutes ago by GASabresIUFAN