Jost, Krebs and the Bottom 6 Problem!

[PerreaultForever]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

Forgive me if I overstep by picking at your inner feelings, but I don’t think it’s really the 1st bolded that bothers you.  Both Ottawa and Detroit spent to the cap before they were any good and you liked it.

I think it’s actually the second bolded that bothers you.  You want more hard nosed players.  That’s fine, I don’t entirely disagree.  I do think it can be done by bringing in a couple more Greenway/Clifton/E Johnson type of additions though.  Guys who are affordable and fill a role.

I don’t really ASSUME that they will be a great team, but that’s the hope, right.  That’s what we plan for.  If it doesn’t happen for this group, the group will get blown up at some point.  These guys don’t have NTCs.  So if they fail and the group changes significantly, then any cap projections are out the window.  I can only project based upon what is here now.

If it makes you feel any better, the Sabres shouldn’t be tight to the cap next season either, based on the players who are currently in the organization.  If they are, it will be because they spent $8M+ on players coming in from the outside.

No, you don't have my position quite right. Yes, I approved of what Ottawa and Detroit did vs. what we did because they spent money to fill immediate need holes while we just stayed the course. In terms of cap numbers they aren't that much higher than we are really. The issue isn't the spending (you should ALWAYS spend to the cap) but in when the contracts come off the books. Guys like Tarasenko, Perron, Gostisbehere, all are temporary fixes and the money is free after. There's no issue there. They are better teams with those players added, and those players do not affect their long term cap when they need more money for their prospects and ELC guys. 

No, I'm definitely not worried about next year. I do worry about giving Mitts $7 million though. For me, we have Cozens and Thompson as our top two centers on contracts that will age exceptionally well if they play like top line centers. Stylistically if you want a points producer as 3C okay Mitts, but I'd rather we had a shut down guy in that role. So Mitts at 4-5 I have little issue with but I'd rather have a ROR or Coyle or Danault type all of whom are in that 5 million range. 

The make up of this team is too one dimensional, and if you keep paying that one dimension you will have no money for the checking/defensive side to be added, much like the Leafs (for example). 

[Thorny]

@PerreaultForeverattempting to dodge @Curt’s well aimed/reasoned punches in this thread like 

[PerreaultForever]

Just now, Thorny said:

@PerreaultForeverattempting to dodge @Curt’s well aimed/reasoned punches in this thread like 

ha ha but wtf are you talking about? I didn't dodge anything. 

Cut to the chase, Mitts at 7 million with term would be a colossal mistake imo. Agree or disagree rather than snipe for your self gratification and feelings of worth. 

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

ha ha but wtf are you talking about? I didn't dodge anything. 

Cut to the chase, Mitts at 7 million with term would be a colossal mistake imo. Agree or disagree rather than snipe for your self gratification and feelings of worth. 

Honestly? I just wanted to post that gif again

Don’t disagree with the bold

Edited November 1, 2023 by Thorny

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Honestly? I just wanted to post that gif again

Don’t disagree with the bold

It is as worth it.

[PerreaultForever]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Honestly? I just wanted to post that gif again

Don’t disagree with the bold

you guys and your gif/meme obsessions. I guess it's a generational thing but I find their constant overuse tiresome. 

[LGR4GM]

[TRIP65]

On 10/30/2023 at 3:21 PM, SDS said:

You’re not gonna get any argument with me. Krebs has broken out of his turnover machine habits, but he has appeared to a level off as a JAG.

He may be a better player someday, but that may show on his sixth NHL team.

Lat year everyone would be screaming at you like they did me. My problem was never Krebs as Center on 4th line. My problem is We have too much Talent drafted and at Amerks to keep people like Oloffson, Krebs, Okposo and Girgenson. Actually, be Ok if 4th line was Rousek Krebs Jost. We have new leaders that produce. Time to move on. Next man gone would be Krebs if need, has trade potential as a Center

[TRIP65]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:14 PM, BlowLeafsBlow123 said:

Hate to say it, but I think Krebs is a bust. He's not even getting good results on the 4th line in the eye test, analytics and counting stats.

He's largely been ineffective outside a few bursts, especially more during his first year here. Every chance he's had with talent has been a huge disappointment in my eyes. I think he's a tweener and/or a decent 13th forward moving forward. He may get marginally better but overall has been quite honestly, a terrible piece in that trade 😞

That's not Krebs. He is a passing Center, who is he passing too that has speed and a Great Shot?

[TRIP65]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:22 PM, msw2112 said:

I was thinking the same thing as the earlier post saying they were not ready to throw in the towel yet on Krebs, and compared him to Casey Mittelstadt.  Krebs is only 22, and I think Casey was in a similar spot at age 22 (2 years ago).  First round draft pick who has played in the AHL and NHL, has shown out in spurts, but has not played at a consistent high level.  Casey has developed into a very good NHL player and Krebs could follow a similar development plan.  He has the skillset and he has the effort (I like his grit - a smaller guy, but not afraid to mix it up and drop the gloves), but he just hasn't put it all together on a regular basis.

That said, I do agree with what's been said earlier in the thread - the Sabres have several strong forward prospects in the system, so if another one is developing at a faster pace than Krebs and is ready, it wouldn't be the worst thing to move on from Krebs in favor of the other prospect.  When he came to Buffalo, things were still pretty bleak, but Krebs (and Tuch) embraced the move and have been part of the turnaround.  He seems like a good kid, so I would like to see him become a consistently good NHL player in Buffalo or elsewhere. 

Very FAIR assessment. But if krebs is in Buffalo, got to give him a chance with linemates that can score. Rousek to me needs to be here since he plays two way Hockey. Can't keep Krebs, Girg and Okposo on this team with Rochester way ahead on Development. Also have Benson and Savoy way past Minor league Development. Jost is a very usable player with 1st round talent like Middlestat and Krebs.

[TRIP65]

On 10/30/2023 at 5:40 PM, klos1963 said:

He hasn't earned better wingers. Which productive center do you take those good wingers from?

Amerks, Savoie and/or Benson. Benson and Savoie know each other and have play making ability to. Krebs some grit. Savoie Krebs Rousek would be pretty cool.

[TRIP65]

On 10/30/2023 at 6:24 PM, Pimlach said:

Interesting but good dilemma.  

On one hand what if they were not patient with Tage and Casey?   Maybe 23 to 24 is the age you see a young forward really break out?  

Jost is already 25 and had stints with Colorado and Minnesota.   He is what he is - he is most likely always gonna be 4th line/ spare forward guy with some skill and some defensive checking ability.   He is a guy that is good in the room too, but I don't see him lasting too much longer.  I do like the guy though, he will work hard for you.  

Krebs is still 22 (until Jan) and might have more upside than Jost.  This is the year he has to show more because Benson is making this team, if not this season then next.   Savoie might be on that same level as Benson - we shall see how he looks soon.   Kulich and Rosen are going to get a look too.  That is 4 Adams picked first rounders that will get a fair look no doubt.   I actually think that the AHL time that Kulich and Rosen are getting is going to benefit them a lot.  

Krebs, even as a 4C, is going to have to generate some offense to fight these guys off.  Krebs could be the later bloomer that gets away, but we have so many forwards it is inevitable that some of them are going to be NHL players somewhere else.  

I just don't want to see a mentality with Adams and DG were we are trying guys out all season and still in a developmental mode.  Its time to win, play whoever best helps us do that.  

 

Who's holding up Development as Players, Adams

 

Seriously, Why is Girg and Okposo on this Roster. Has nothing to do with who those guys are. Has to do with the Riches of drafting High for 7+ years.

Okposo, Girg and Oloffson are holding up being a Playoff team!

[French Collection]

40 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

No, I'm definitely not worried about next year. I do worry about giving Mitts $7 million though. For me, we have Cozens and Thompson as our top two centers on contracts that will age exceptionally well if they play like top line centers. Stylistically if you want a points producer as 3C okay Mitts, but I'd rather we had a shut down guy in that role. So Mitts at 4-5 I have little issue with but I'd rather have a ROR or Coyle or Danault type all of whom are in that 5 million range. 

I would say Mitts is currently playing like the 2C. Cozens was even moved to TNT’s wing for a few games.

I would hope Mitts’ contract comes in around $5.5-6M, but he is playing well and could match or exceed Cozens’ stats. I love Cozens more but Mitts’ season could show him to be a core piece. He is also motivated by his next contract.

Even if he is 3C long term, he may be one of the top 6 forwards and probably deserves to get paid like one.

[LabattBlue]

23 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

you guys and your gif/meme obsessions. I guess it's a generational thing but I find their constant overuse tiresome. 

I feel the same which is why I was overjoyed when it was broken for a while.  😂

[TRIP65]

On 10/30/2023 at 6:47 PM, Taro T said:

Krebs has THAT timing issue that you mentioned, that they're in win NOW mode so they can't put his development ahead of the team's success.

But he also has the timing of there being at least 6 legit prospects that could all be ready to get real looks within the next 2 seasons and there aren't many open slots above his on the team.  When Mittelstadt and then Thompson were initially getting pencilled in as the 1 C, there weren't 9 potentially top 9 guys on the roster nor were there 2 lines worth of guys chomping at the bit with legit chances to get looks.  

There wasn't as much competitition for jobs when Casey and Tage were being given opportunities to show whether they were up to the task.  It's a good problem for the team to have, but Adams will have to be adept as he decides who to keep and how to get max values for the ones he doesn't have a dressing room stall for.

Looking as Krebs as the odd guy out. To me, no future for Girg, Okposo and Oloffson. Imperative we move on from them first before we throw away Krebs and Jost.

They may all be gone by next year.

[TRIP65]

6 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I would say Mitts is currently playing like the 2C. Cozens was even moved to TNT’s wing for a few games.

I would hope Mitts’ contract comes in around $5.5-6M, but he is playing well and could match or exceed Cozens’ stats. I love Cozens more but Mitts’ season could show him to be a core piece. He is also motivated by his next contract.

Even if he is 3C long term, he may be one of the top 6 forwards and probably deserves to get paid like one.

Anything that happens has nothing to do with Middlestat unless he starts scoring 30 goals. If he accepts a contract worth 3rd Center, keep him. Not surpassing Cozens. If someone gets hurt, great to have him. But he is on this team a 3C, not a winger either, that is his role and to go up to help with Injuries.

[Thorny]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

you guys and your gif/meme obsessions. I guess it's a generational thing but I find their constant overuse tiresome. 

I’m 54 years old 

[#freejame]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I’m 54 years old 

No chance. Really? 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

No, you don't have my position quite right. Yes, I approved of what Ottawa and Detroit did vs. what we did because they spent money to fill immediate need holes while we just stayed the course. In terms of cap numbers they aren't that much higher than we are really. The issue isn't the spending (you should ALWAYS spend to the cap) but in when the contracts come off the books. Guys like Tarasenko, Perron, Gostisbehere, all are temporary fixes and the money is free after. There's no issue there. They are better teams with those players added, and those players do not affect their long term cap when they need more money for their prospects and ELC guys. 

No, I'm definitely not worried about next year. I do worry about giving Mitts $7 million though. For me, we have Cozens and Thompson as our top two centers on contracts that will age exceptionally well if they play like top line centers. Stylistically if you want a points producer as 3C okay Mitts, but I'd rather we had a shut down guy in that role. So Mitts at 4-5 I have little issue with but I'd rather have a ROR or Coyle or Danault type all of whom are in that 5 million range. 

The make up of this team is too one dimensional, and if you keep paying that one dimension you will have no money for the checking/defensive side to be added, much like the Leafs (for example). 

This is all perfectly reasonable.  I don’t really disagree.

My points were were mostly just weighing in on whether the Sabres could afford to pay Mitts long term.  They can, but you could definitely be right that it’s not the ideal roster mix.

One other thing I’ll say regarding this is that the Sabres may view Cozens as someone who can do some of this shutdown C type role in the future.  I think he has the physicality and mindset to do it.  He definitely isn’t there yet though.  How much of that is a conscious game plan decision to play a transition offense game as opposed to a defense focused game, I’m not sure.

[TRIP65]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

This is all perfectly reasonable.  I don’t really disagree.

My points were were mostly just weighing in on whether the Sabres could afford to pay Mitts long term.  They can, but you could definitely be right that it’s not the ideal roster mix.

One other thing I’ll say regarding this is that the Sabres may view Cozens as someone who can do some of this shutdown C type role in the future.  I think he has the physicality and mindset to do it.  He definitely isn’t there yet though.  How much of that is a conscious game plan decision to play a transition offense game as opposed to a defense focused game, I’m not sure.

Bottom line goals mean more and Cozens is a 30 goal scorer. His physical size is a added bonus. None of this takes away who Middlestat is. problem is we have 20 mil/yr tied up on two defensivemen who also can get assists and goals.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I don’t really like the “7 million for a 3C?” argument. Imagine the Pens lowballing Malkin because “hey actually you are our 2C”. Position they play is merely semantics if the actual production is representative of more 

Yep. I rank Mitts as our 5th forward and so far this year you could argue he has been our best.

Mitts at 7 would put our top 5 forwards at a shade under $35 million. Tuch will get a raise but Skinner will disappear. We will be paying our top 2 D a lot.

Penguins top 5 is 31. Avs are a shade over 40, Leafs are 46, Florida 34…

All those teams will have new contracts coming up too.

Is 35 million for our top 5 out of line? Will it be in 2 years? 5?

Edited November 1, 2023 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Why can’t Krebs evolve into the type of bottom 6 player people say we are going to need?

He’s fast, courageous and diligent.

Why can’t he be paid like most bottom 6 25-point scorers?

It feels like a lot of people initially pictured him as a 60-point 2C and have decided he’s less likely to become one than others in the system, therefore he’s going to have to move on.

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m 54 years old 

[Thorny]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why can’t Krebs evolve into the type of bottom 6 player people say we are going to need?

He’s fast, courageous and diligent.

Why can’t he be paid like most bottom 6 25-point scorers?

It feels like a lot of people initially pictured him as a 60-point 2C and have decided he’s less likely to become one than others in the system, therefore he’s going to have to move on.

I guess the thing is, he was 10th in scoring for F on our team last year with 26 points. So when you say bottom 6, it’s more like bottom 3, without an upsurge. If a few of the prospects graduate, he might actually just be a true bonafide bottom 6er who, yet, isn’t good enough to be on the team. Depends on his all around game I guess. For my part, it’s not that he has to go, he’s just frankly one of the players closer to the end of the plank 

even trading Olofsson, a lot of people think he’s more of a 13th man. Krebs could just be a milestone of sorts: a player we trade purely to upgrade to better when we already had good enough- which I’m not sure we’ve seen yet 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

No chance. Really? 

37