GDT: 3/24/2021: Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins 8pm NBCSN

[Thorny]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

He had stretches of horrendous play both at the beginning and end of last season. There are posters that *notice* stuff long before they reach consensus, and those guys were sounding off back then. I've grown to trust them. PA and inky and weave for example. 

Then I think we're basically only arguing over hyperbole and on-the-spot, top-of-the-head examples, which is a classic Thorny-Flagg experience lmao

I agree on this too 

PA had me at Pegula

Weave had me at reinhart is sharp

ink when he added me on twitter 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

14 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

The Buffalo Sabres (not their fans) deserve this, honestly. You reap what you sow. We made a mockery of the game for two years, and weren't smart enough to figure out a way to right the ship afterwards. This is entirely because of decisions made in top positions within the organization, and the fallout will continue until something changes up there.

I am ready to move on from Jack, from Sam, and from Dahlin. Not because everything is tainted and we need an exorcism, but the symbolism there is a compelling narrative to bring along with it. Put these guys on organizations that can show them the right way, and then let's build one ourselves right here.

In doing so, the same mistakes as before cannot be made. There will be a lot of younger pieces coming back in these deals. Some of them, along with other assets and cap space, will need to be spent on identifying proper veteran players. Dylan Cozens has a lot of excellent instincts. He "plays the game the right way." We need vets who do the same thing, and have found success in this league doing so, that can show him how to use those instincts to win hockey games. We need to fight, scratch and claw to find the right players to do this. And we need the right coach to lead them out. If we go this path, given Gallant's story in Vegas, I wonder if he wouldn't be the perfect fit. 

I'm ready for it. We can't continue down the path we started in 2015, or 2018, or 2020. These players can't handle it anymore, and neither can the fans.

I can agree on a lot of this but I won't "Ryan O'Reilly" our best player for the sake of a compelling narrative. Change a lot, but we should keep Jack. He's really good at hockey and if he can win on another team, he can win on this team if our team enough resembles the other teams. 

I really like Dylan Cozens, but I like him a lot more as a 2C.

We will finally have a 1C-2C combo, a trade involving Jack where we don't get a 1C back isn't even on the table for me

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, sabremike said:

Here's where I disagree with blow everything up: the last Sabres coach who you could even claim is an actual NHL coach was Dan Bylsma (who is pretty bad, as evidenced by him not getting a HC gig since). Since then we had two seasons of a bad high school coach and a season and a half of a slick talking con man who was in way over his head. You could take as much good young talent as you wish, throw them into that viper's nest of incompetence and the result would always be spectacular failure. So rather than blow it all up and hire another entry level trashbag coach in way over his head how about hiring an honest to God proven quality head coach with a track record of success a mile long. If that doesn't happen in a few years time we will be having this same exact conversation only the names will be Cozens, Quinn, Samuelson and whatever poor godforsaken bastard who has the horrible misfortune to be selected by us 3rd overall in the 2021 draft.

Yep. It's remarkable how good Jack is considering how dysfunctional we *all know* this organization is. There's a thought that he can't be salvaged, but the thought of what he would look like on an actual team, when he's looked this good on a historically bad one, is much more enticing to me. 

[Randall Flagg]

57 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can agree on a lot of this but I won't "Ryan O'Reilly" our best player for the sake of a compelling narrative. Change a lot, but we should keep Jack. He's really good at hockey and if he can win on another team, he can win on this team if our team enough resembles the other teams. 

I really like Dylan Cozens, but I like him a lot more as a 2C.

We will finally have a 1C-2C combo, a trade involving Jack where we don't get a 1C back isn't even on the table for me

As an early pioneer of the resistance to the "ROR cancer" line of thinking, I agree that I don't want to "Ryan O'Reilly" Jack. I'm trying to balance a multi-faceted scale and think I could fix the team quicker by moving Jack than playing him at this juncture. Through no fault of Jack 

It should be met with stern and critical resistance to make sure it stands up to scrutiny 

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

As an early pioneer of the resistance to the "ROR cancer" line of thinking, I agree that I don't want to "Ryan O'Reilly" Jack. I'm trying to balance a multi-faceted scale and think I could fix the team quicker by moving Jack than playing him at this juncture. Through no fault of Jack 

It should be met with stern and critical resistance to make sure it stands up to scrutiny 

This is so interesting to me. It doesn't seem like a trade won very often by the team selling off the best player. Never mind having the confidence in the current staff to pull it off when I'm not sure they have, even...one(?) good move to their name as of yet, and it's a difficult trade to pull off at the best of times. 

I appreciate the idea it's not being done for "ROR cancer" reasons but I can't see how the equation doesn't assume just a ton of "addition by subtraction" given the return teams usually see. Which therefore gives far too much weight to unknown, undefinable "intangibles", which doesn't seem wise to me given the much more apparent, much more definable, positive impacts Jack has statistically committed to the cause, better than any player we've had, or seen, in years.

To me it does boil down to a "couldn't win with him, why not move him" philosophy. 

We *know* his impacts are great, we'd be *guessing* on causation intangibles going the other way. That's supposing we can't equal his talent in a return, which I think is a fair assumption

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This is so interesting to me. It doesn't seem like a trade won very often by the team selling off the best player. Never mind having the confidence in the current staff to pull it off when I'm not sure they have, even...one(?) good move to their name as of yet, and it's a difficult trade to pull off at the best of times. 

I appreciate the idea it's not being done for "ROR cancer" reasons but I can't see how the equation doesn't assume just a ton of "addition by subtraction" given the return teams usually see. Which therefore gives far too much weight to unknown, undefinable "intangibles", which doesn't seem wise to me given the much more apparent, much more definable, positive impacts Jack has statistically committed to the cause, better than any player we've had, or seen, in years.

To me it does boil down to a "couldn't win with him, why not move him" philosophy 

It's more that for the first time in Jack's career here, I have no faith that I can take the sum of available cap space and assets in the organization not from Jack-Sam-Dahlin, and turn it into a winning team with those three on it. Not because of their flaws or anything, but because of the state of the hockey this franchise has built, which  has fully sucked everyone in. I would have a pit in my stomach navigating an offseason, sure in my gut that I'd just be creating another high 70s point team. 

This would be subject to change if something crazy were to present itself to me - a serious offer sheeting possibility, or something out of the blue, like another team's Jason offering me their ROR for our junk. 

But if I am constrained by level headed GMing, and typical UFA limits, and our assets and our cap space, I think I have a better shot at moving the highest value pieces we have and building from there. But, I need to be confident in my management team and coaching staff, and I will not argue against anyone who does not have that confidence at this point, for I cannot make another person share my inexplicable belief in Kevyn Adams using facts, logic, or reason

Edited March 25, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It's more that for the first time in Jack's career here, I have no faith that I can take the sum of available cap space and assets in the organization not from Jack-Sam-Dahlin, and turn it into a winning team with those three on it. Not because of their flaws or anything, but because of the state of the hockey this franchise has built, which  has fully sucked everyone in. I would have a pit in my stomach navigating an offseason, sure in my gut that I'd just be creating another high 70s point team. 

This would be subject to change if something crazy were to present itself to me - a serious offer sheeting possibility, or something out of the blue, like another team's Jason offering me their ROR for our junk. 

But if I am constrained by level headed GMing, and typical UFA limits, and our assets and our cap space, I think I have a better shot at moving the highest value pieces we have and building from there. But, I need to be confident in my management team and coaching staff, and I will not argue against anyone who does not have that confidence at this point, for I cannot make another person share my inexplicable belief in Kevyn Adams using facts, logic, or reason

Not only confidence in Adams to be good, we'd need confidence in him to buck the overwhelming trend of teams coming off the worse for making this type of deal

I don't really see how having Jack Sam and Dahlin on this roster somehow precludes us from making the moves we need. We don't even know what Sam and Dahlin will be making yet. Eichel's $ amount is totally good for what he provides. We can use his 10 mil better? I truly don't get the assets/cap space spin here

[Thorny]

To me it still only inherently makes sense if the argument is Jack is providing some sort of invisible negative value. Without it, how does one better utilize the 10 million that's already providing more bang for the buck than anything else on the roster? 

We'd be trying to trade our area of strength for something even stronger instead of remoulding the weaknesses 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Not only confidence in Adams to be good, we'd need confidence in him to buck the overwhelming trend of teams coming off the worse for making this type of deal

I don't really see how having Jack Sam and Dahlin on this roster somehow precludes us from making the moves we need. We don't even know what Sam and Dahlin will be making yet. Eichel's $ amount is totally good for what he provides. We can use his 10 mil better? I truly don't get the assets/cap space spin here

The trade bait lists and UFA lists don't have players that would be able to resist the Buffalo Sabres vortex of *****, and we don't have the assets with those three as untouchables to acquire players that for one reason or another would be immune to the vortex of *****, much less be capable of changing it

Maybe Bruce Boudreau and a decent 2C and goalie could change it, but I don't know if they can change whatever makes Sam Reinhart incapable of being a part of a 3 on 2 that gets a scoring chance for 3 years running, even if I believe he's incredibly good. Or the countless other disturbing malformed hockey "essences" that plague every skater on our roster 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The trade bait lists and UFA lists don't have players that would be able to resist the Buffalo Sabres vortex of *****, and we don't have the assets with those three as untouchables to acquire players that for one reason or another would be immune to the vortex of *****, much less be capable of changing it

Maybe Bruce Boudreau and a decent 2C and goalie could change it, but I don't know if they can change whatever makes Sam Reinhart incapable of being a part of a 3 on 2 that gets a scoring chance for 3 years running, even if I believe he's incredibly good. Or the countless other disturbing malformed hockey "essences" that plague every skater on our roster 

But it doesn't plague Jack. 

What am I missing here? Are we considering his 21 games this year hampered by injury or not? The guy was an MVP level player last year even under Krueger! Jack already has the resistant super-serum 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

What would the narrative around trading Jack be like if it happened at the end of last season, right after he came off what was universally considered his best season? Actually asking. There wasn't even a whisper from what I remember about desire to trade him.

21 injury hampered games where he still led the team in scoring and we need to convert him to more suck-resistant assets? 

I just don't know

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But it doesn't plague Jack. 

What am I missing here? Are we considering his 21 games this year hampered by injury or not? The guy was an MVP level player last year even under Krueger! Jack already has the resistant super-serum 

It does, that guy has the hockey sense of a mule lol. He's just so gifted that he can still produce like crazy

But even then, in his MVP contending season, we posted a season identical to the mediocrity that has been every season of his career, complete with typical March swoons and bottom 8 finishes. When teams ramp up their play on our Sabres, and our Sabres players, to get ready for the playoffs, our Sabres fundamentally do not know how to handle it, because while they can play on the same field as those teams earlier in the year, they get blown out of the water later, which is why our last March regulation victory was in 2018

They have the talent to play with these teams, but they don't have the wisdom or ability to know how to carry that into the "meaningful March"

That's part of what I don't think we can fix with our limited assets. Sure, I'd love to get Danault to play 2C, Savard at RHD, and a real goalie. Maybe Raanta is the best one that'll come here, Raanta-Ullmark would be solid. That would be a pretty damn good offseason talent influx, and there is no guarantee at all that we can match it while keeping Jack, Dahlin, and Reinhart. Those guys, or functional equivalents, would absolutely get swallowed by Buffalo. They wouldn't pull us out, they'd do what countless others do when they get here, get sucked in 

[Thorny]

I mentioned before, I still think the weight of the failure of this season is weighing heavily on the minds of fans and that Jack bears a lot of that burden in perception. People complained before of course but it's different this year. The mood is different - more have truly thrown their hands up at it all. There's no sting in losing Jack anymore because people have had to detach from everything. Numb to the pain. I didn't think there was a chance we wouldn't be at least improved, after the Hall addition. I think many felt this way, anecdotally. To me it really did feel like the "Ok, we literally can't ever assume anything will ever be even a little bit better if we can add Taylor Freaking Hall and be worse". I keep saying, it doesn't seem like we ever really added Taylor Hall. Not when Taylor Hall would mean, signify, and feel like. 

We've been burned by this team so many times. I think it's important to feel that pain for a bit longer though - it makes me fear trading Jack and I think we should fear trading Jack Eichel. 

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

It does, that guy has the hockey sense of a mule lol. He's just so gifted that he can still produce like crazy

But even then, in his MVP contending season, we posted a season identical to the mediocrity that has been every season of his career, complete with typical March swoons and bottom 8 finishes. When teams ramp up their play on our Sabres, and our Sabres players, to get ready for the playoffs, our Sabres fundamentally do not know how to handle it, because while they can play on the same field as those teams earlier in the year, they get blown out of the water later, which is why our last March regulation victory was in 2018

They have the talent to play with these teams, but they don't have the wisdom or ability to know how to carry that into the "meaningful March"

That's part of what I don't think we can fix with our limited assets. Sure, I'd love to get Danault to play 2C, Savard at RHD, and a real goalie. Maybe Raanta is the best one that'll come here, Raanta-Ullmark would be solid. That would be a pretty damn good offseason talent influx, and there is no guarantee at all that we can match it while keeping Jack, Dahlin, and Reinhart. Those guys, or functional equivalents, would absolutely get swallowed by Buffalo. They wouldn't pull us out, they'd do what countless others do when they get here, get sucked in 

Jack having a weakness that was apparent upon drafting him and in his pre-draft years doesn't equate to him being burdened by whatever it is you are saying Buffalo is making people feel burdened by

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It does, that guy has the hockey sense of a mule lol. He's just so gifted that he can still produce like crazy

But even then, in his MVP contending season, we posted a season identical to the mediocrity that has been every season of his career, complete with typical March swoons and bottom 8 finishes. When teams ramp up their play on our Sabres, and our Sabres players, to get ready for the playoffs, our Sabres fundamentally do not know how to handle it, because while they can play on the same field as those teams earlier in the year, they get blown out of the water later, which is why our last March regulation victory was in 2018

They have the talent to play with these teams, but they don't have the wisdom or ability to know how to carry that into the "meaningful March"

That's part of what I don't think we can fix with our limited assets. Sure, I'd love to get Danault to play 2C, Savard at RHD, and a real goalie. Maybe Raanta is the best one that'll come here, Raanta-Ullmark would be solid. That would be a pretty damn good offseason talent influx, and there is no guarantee at all that we can match it while keeping Jack, Dahlin, and Reinhart. Those guys, or functional equivalents, would absolutely get swallowed by Buffalo. They wouldn't pull us out, they'd do what countless others do when they get here, get sucked in 

 

Is the conversation actually at "Jack should have elevated these guys to the playoffs"?

This is so mysterious and vague and theoretical. This isn't a shot, I'm just not really sure how to proceed. Danault Savard and a good goalie would absolutely get swallowed - just because. That's where we are at? Ok?

I'm earnestly struggling to see this argument for anything other than "Jack isn't a winner"

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

We think they'd be bad because Danault is like Staal? Or Mittelstadt?

Savard is like Miller?

Raanta would be like Hutton?

Why aren't we talking about how bad the actual moves were? Like tangible stuff? Staal sucked. He's the 2C - maybe bringing in a 2C would help Jack. We haven't had one since ROR. 

Or maybe it's just that we are cursed, apparently?

The bad pieces and bad staff are bad because that's what they are not because the few good pieces weren't good enough. 

- - - 

29, 30, and 10. 

Those are the 2C point totals in the 3 seasons since ROR left. They didn't fall prey to something undefinable when they got here, they just weren't good players. Not for that role. I can't see how we can rule out the ability to get it done with Jack when we've only tried him with insufficient talent directly around him. "Couldn't do it with zero centre help? That's my variables covered - we must trade him."

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

I think @Thorny and @LGR4GM are too quick to dismiss how concerned we should be about Dahlin.

I'm not aware of many franchise players who performed as badly as a 20-year-old as Dahlin has played this season. It doesn't mean he can't, or won't be good, and he's clearly talented. But he's not good right now. At all. This is not a case of slumping, or of inconsistency. If his name was Jacob Bryson he would not be in the NHL based on the way he has played.

I worry about his mental health, given his struggles, his personality and his likely isolation in a foregin country during a pandemic.

Rasmus is a much more talented player, but you can make an analogy to Mittelstadt here. Expectations have had to be adjusted based on what we've seen on the ice.

This has to be of serious concern. Right there beside Eichel's commitment as the biggest concern facing the franchise.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I think @Thorny and @LGR4GM are too quick to dismiss how concerned we should be about Dahlin.

I'm not aware of many franchise players who performed as badly as a 20-year-old as Dahlin has played this season. It doesn't mean he can't, or won't be good, and he's clearly talented. But he's not good right now. At all. This is not a case of slumping, or of inconsistency. If his name was Jacob Bryson he would not be in the NHL based on the way he has played.

I worry about his mental health, given his struggles, his personality and his likely isolation in a foregin country during a pandemic.

Rasmus is a much more talented player, but you can make an analogy to Mittelstadt here. Expectations have had to be adjusted based on what we've seen on the ice.

This has to be of serious concern. Right there beside Eichel's commitment as the biggest concern facing the franchise.

Sure it is.

Sam Reinhart had a longer, worse stretch to start his third nhl season.

I said he "wasn't even an NHL player", on this forum. Not going to make that mistake again 

Rasmus is younger than he was, from another country, and somehow on a worse team. 

Dahlin will be fine. 

[Thorny]

Sam Reinhart, 17-18 season start - 

38gp, 5 goals, 6 assists

- - - 

15 points in 50 games from end of 16-17 to start of 17-18

As for the bit about adjusting expectations, I've already spoken to that, and agree

- - - 

I hope when the time comes, the team, too, learns from past mistakes and locks Dahlin up to a LT team friendly deal rather than walking him to UFA like sammy boy 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Sure it is.

Sam Reinhart had a longer, worse stretch to start his third nhl season.

I said he "wasn't even an NHL player", on this forum. Not going to make that mistake again 

Rasmus is younger than he was, from another country, and somehow on a worse team. 

Dahlin will be fine. 

Reinhart didn't produce. That's not the same thing.

Dahlin's production is the thing I'm least worried about.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Reinhart didn't produce. That's not the same thing.

Dahlin's production is the thing I'm least worried about.

Reinhart looked distinctly terrible. I remember my specific position was he looked like he wasn’t an NHL player. It wasn’t just a production thing, he was straight bad. 

I said I wanted to trade him. It was as bad if not worse than this Dahlin stretch imo 

you make no note of a Yakupov comparison yet challenge my apt Reinhart slump comparison haha

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

The other big difference between Sam and Dahlin is Sam was never supposed to be a franchise player and this team never needed him to be a franchise.

My expectations for Dahlin are quite different. If he ends up a Sam level player, I will be disappointed. He's not supposed to be Keith Yandle or Brian Campbell.

[sabremike]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think @Thorny and @LGR4GM are too quick to dismiss how concerned we should be about Dahlin.

I'm not aware of many franchise players who performed as badly as a 20-year-old as Dahlin has played this season. It doesn't mean he can't, or won't be good, and he's clearly talented. But he's not good right now. At all. This is not a case of slumping, or of inconsistency. If his name was Jacob Bryson he would not be in the NHL based on the way he has played.

I worry about his mental health, given his struggles, his personality and his likely isolation in a foregin country during a pandemic.

Rasmus is a much more talented player, but you can make an analogy to Mittelstadt here. Expectations have had to be adjusted based on what we've seen on the ice.

This has to be of serious concern. Right there beside Eichel's commitment as the biggest concern facing the franchise.

Right off the top of my head: Chris Pronger and Victor Heddman.

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

The other big difference between Sam and Dahlin is Sam was never supposed to be a franchise player and this team never needed him to be a franchise.

My expectations for Dahlin are quite different. If he ends up a Sam level player, I will be disappointed. He's not supposed to be Keith Yandle or Brian Campbell.

But I wasn't talking expectations and that's not where the conversation was. The whole substance of it was Dahlin being a potential Bust. It wasn't about living up to expectations - that was literally my first comment to him - bust relative to expectations or an actual bust?

You classified my position as "quick to dismiss" - when the context was "bust", and bring up "relative to expectations" when I've already stipulated that expectations should change. 

I don't see how I was quick to dismiss anything - other than the idea that Dahlin is Yakupov. I'm comfortable quickly dismissing that. If you want to take more issue with that dismissal than a comparison to Yakupov, have at it. 

- - - 

I’m honestly much less concerned with humming and hawing over whether we get what was “promised to us”, in the past, with Dahlin, and more concerned with mining value where it can be mined and actually building a winning hockey team - Reinhart is Reinhart, but what about a Reinhart currently locked up for the foreseeable future at around 5.5 million? 

Plot is getting lost a bit. The errors of the franchise are their own. We have the ability to make our own future. The value that Dahlin provides, relative to what was advertised, literally matters not, now, it’s in the past - we can get him to a point, with savvy asset management, where he’s locked into a contract that provides value relative to what he’s being paid. 

Get his development back on track. Go make your own value. Be a competent franchise. 

- - - 

Or just trade all the good players and start over with “Jerry Forton” manning the transformation, or you know, whatever. 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Thorny

[Cal Naughton Jr]

Did anyone else see after the game where Hall basically said he absolutely wants to be traded? I don’t see anyone discussing it. Probably because it doesn’t really matter. Imagine spending all that money on a Hall jersey before the season...

[inkman]

7 hours ago, sabremike said:

Right off the top of my head: Chris Pronger and Victor Heddman.

Zdeno Chara sucked balls for quite a few seasons before becoming the Sabre killer we knew him to be