GDT: 3/24/2021: Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins 8pm NBCSN

[Thorny]

Haven't been able to catch the last few so made sure to PVR this one. Haven't read the thread yet.

Dahlin didn't have a great game but this game was a really good example of why plus minus is so flawed. First goal, the announcers did a good job of explaining it (and I thought they were pretty balanced overall, actually (maybe a perk of being a bad team, eh)) - Dahlin was clearly on an offensive rush, that's on Staal or VO to cover for him. Just total lack of awareness - Dahlin needs to be confident the team will have his back if he wants to jump up into the play to do what he does best, like we need and want him to. He'll probably think twice if that keeps happening. 

Dahlin again on for goal 2 - Miller gave the puck away twice directly preceding the goal, nothing Dahlin could have done. He didn't look great on the PP goal against but it was a much worse play from Hall - why are the supposedly *good* veteran players putting the young players in a position to fail? Terrible giveaway at a bad spot by Hall left Dahlin flat footed. Took that no-call high stick against, too. 

Speaking of Hall, he also had another giveaway for a goal in his own zone. Dude is terrible. Can we really contemplate signing him? Staal is so poor.

Cozens made a real nifty stretch pass to set up VO's penalty shot goal. Underrated passser.

This team is scary without Jack. We aren't even really that banged up at F, either, without him. Definitely should not trade him. Please. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Haven't been able to catch the last few so made sure to PVR this one. Haven't read the thread yet.

Dahlin didn't have a great game but this game was a really good example of why plus minus is so flawed. First goal, the announcers did a good job of explaining it (and I thought they were pretty balanced overall, actually (maybe a perk of being a bad team, eh)) - Dahlin was clearly on an offensive rush, that's on Staal or VO to cover for him. Just total lack of awareness - Dahlin needs to be confident the team will have his back if he wants to jump up into the play to do what he does best, like we need and want him to. He'll probably think twice if that keeps happening. 

Dahlin again on for goal 2 - Miller gave the puck away twice directly preceding the goal, nothing Dahlin could have done. He didn't look great on the PP goal against but it was a much worse play from Hall - why are the supposedly *good* veteran players putting the young players in a position to fail? Terrible giveaway at a bad spot by Hall left Dahlin flat footed. Took that no-call high stick against, too. 

Speaking of Hall, he also had another giveaway for a goal in his own zone. Dude is terrible. Can we really contemplate signing him? Staal is so poor.

Cozens made a real nifty stretch pass to set up VO's penalty shot goal. Underrated passser.

This team is scary without Jack. We aren't even really that banged up at F, either, without him. Definitely should not trade him. Please. 

It's unbelievable how bad Taylor Hall is. What the hell is going on with that 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It's unbelievable how bad Taylor Hall is. What the hell is going on with that 

I've never been so at odds with the advanced stats that say he's having a really good year somehow lol

There is a fairly large contingent that wants him signed, at a discount. Like, I guess? I just see so much risk. He's been not good at all. 

15 hours ago, Billznut said:

Yep, that’s when Hasek left. After blowing a 3-2 lead in games vs Pittsburgh. Other than 05-06 and 06-07, it’s been hockey hell here for 20 years and counting. 

We did win the division in 09-10 and were in good standing against the Bruins round 1 before they intentionally injured one of our best players in Vanek 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, darksabre said:

Can't help but laugh that the Sabres can put pretty much anyone in net and have them be better than Hutton has been in years. 

Adams needs to hire a pro scout

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I've never been so at odds with the advanced stats that say he's having a really good year somehow lol

There is a fairly large contingent that wants him signed, at a discount. Like, I guess? I just see so much risk. He's been not good at all. 

We did win the division in 09-10 and were in good standing against the Bruins round 1 before they intentionally injured one of our best players in Vanek 

There are so many times where Hall can create a favorable situation, as someone closes in on him, by passing it to a wide open teammate that's 4 feet away, and every single time he chooses not to do so and loses the puck. It's unreal 

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think we are closer to this cliff than you're willing to admit.

Actually a bust? No chance. His abnormally odd developmental curve lines up precisely with the abnormally inept franchise's abnormally bad decision to pair him up with a literal non-NHL coach. A good player can definitely be salvaged (we already saw it his rookie year) (and then some, probably, imo) if we get him the positive structural influences ALL young players coming into the league need. 

A bust relative to expectations? I mean i guess. He's not generational. who cares. I understand those who are frustrated by that but, if he becomes a consistently good player, it's not something I believe should be pinned against the guy - what other people said. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

He's toast mentally, no confidence whatsoever. That is where it all starts, poor development by the organization.

this

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I do too and it's not because of his draft position. He might not be Makar level but holy crap this isn't the player from the SHL or from year 1. This is a shell or imposter. 

Should also be noted that at Dahlin's current age Makar hadn't even played in an NHL regular season yet 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Actually a bust? No chance. His abnormally odd developmental curve lines up precisely with the abnormally inept franchise's abnormally bad decision to pair him up with a literal non-NHL coach. A good player can definitely be salvaged (we already saw it his rookie year) (and then some, probably, imo) if we get him the positive structural influences ALL young players coming into the league need. 

A bust relative to expectations? I mean i guess. He's not generational. who cares. I understand those who are frustrated by that but, if he becomes a consistently good player, it's not something I believe should be pinned against the guy - what other people said. 

He's got a looooooooooooooooong, loooooooooooong haul to get to this point. Just as long as countless prospects who never pan out. That's why I think there's a bigger chance than some admit 

[Thorny]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

He's got a looooooooooooooooong, loooooooooooong haul to get to this point. Just as long as countless prospects who never pan out. That's why I think there's a bigger chance than some admit 

We've already seen it for a full year. That's what makes this different. 

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If 365 days from, Dahlin still looks like this, sure we can talk about him being a bad defender. 

Depends on whether the organization actually starts putting him in a position to succeed. They haven't done anything yet, they just fired Krueger, that's all 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

He's got a looooooooooooooooong, loooooooooooong haul to get to this point. Just as long as countless prospects who never pan out. That's why I think there's a bigger chance than some admit 

And actually again, I can't stress enough, Dahlin's downturn lines up exactly with an abnormally strange and poor coaching hire. The situation itself, as has been statistically demonstrated time and time again, has been uniquely bad here, for this duration. The situation isn't directly comparable with "countless" - the Sabres situation has been uniquely bad 

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

We've already seen it for a full year. That's what makes this different. 

Depends on whether the organization actually starts putting him in a position to succeed. They haven't done anything yet, they just fired Krueger, that's all 

I haven't seen anything better than Yakupov's rookie year (he would have scored 30G in a full season) from Dahlin, and Yakupov never reached those heights again, why is Dahlin immune from this possibility? Dahlin's low right now is staggering

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And actually again, I can't stress enough, Dahlin's lines up exactly with an abnormally strange and poor coaching hire. The situation itself, as has been statistically demonstrated time and time again, has been uniquely bad here, for this duration. The situation isn't directly comparable with "countless" - the Sabres situation has been uniquely bad 

Ralph sucks, and the sucktitude magnified in a bizarre and unique way over the last 15 games, given the circumstances of this season which probably aided that along. But aside from that, Ralph's tenure was not uniquely bad whatsoever. It was quite similar to Phil's 

[Randall Flagg]

The Sabres' xGF% ranks the same over Housley's two years as it did over Ralph's

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I haven't seen anything better than Yakupov's rookie year (he would have scored 30G in a full season) from Dahlin, and Yakupov never reached those heights again, why is Dahlin immune from this possibility? Dahlin's low right now is staggering

The ineptitude of Yakopov's situation didn't compare - and that's saying something as that was the Oilers. 

Besides, it feels a little disingenuous to act like Dahlin's rookie year wasn't different from Yakupov's. The comparisons Dahlin was (appropriately, statistically) drawing were to the all-timers, his rookie season was that good for his age. Yakupov did nothing of the sort. 

Dahlin also upped his raw totals his second year. Yakupov went way down, in way more games played

Just a bad comparison 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Dahlin's numbers, as a D man, at 19, blew Yakupov's, a forward, at 20, out of the water. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The ineptitude of Yakopov's situation didn't compare - and that's saying something as that was the Oilers. 

Besides, it feels a little disingenuous to act like Dahlin's rookie year wasn't different from Yakupov's. The comparisons Dahlin was (appropriately, statistically) drawing were to the all-timers, his rookie was that good for his age. Yakupov did nothing of the sort. 

The all-timers numbers were only because he was 18, the numbers themselves weren't anything special. I get that it's rare for an 18 year old to be in the NHL, but that's entirely because most teams prefer taking the long route with D prospects and don't draft them so high. 44 points along with bad defensive play should not be spoken of in hushed, awed tones, even if he happened to be 18 instead of 19 while doing that. Yakupov's rookie year was as impressive as Dahlin's. And Dahlin's peers have been much more interesting than he, and they only got 1 year extra of development. Dahlin spending one more year in the SHL could have possibly closed that gap, but I am skeptical, and it can never be proven of course. His problems stem from a sort of timidness that he's always had. And his rookie successes climbed the list only because he had a competition sample size of about 4 18 year old defensemen in the last several decades lol, while Nail's competition was an order of magnitude larger in sample size

Ignore the draft stuff, and the super epic historical secondary PP assists. Nail and Rasmus were at a similar level of hockey player in their rookie seasons, and Dahlin's quality as a hockey player has since deteriorated to the point that he is really, really bad. The same thing happened to Nail, and many other prospects who have achieved a player-quality level Dahlin has had now, and many have never climbed out of that hole. Dahlin is not special because his rookie year had some nice passes to Jack, and he is not immune to this possibility. He is bad and it is alarming people in the organization, and probably around the league, who know that ruination could be around the corner. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

He's been a bad defender his whole career haha. He is terrible now. We can talk about this because it's very alarming 

Not statistically true his rookie year

[SwampD]

Make him a forward.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The all-timers numbers were only because he was 18, the numbers themselves weren't anything special. I get that it's rare for an 18 year old to be in the NHL, but that's entirely because most teams prefer taking the long route with D prospects and don't draft them so high. 44 points along with bad defensive play should not be spoken of in hushed, awed tones, even if he happened to be 18 instead of 19 while doing that. Yakupov's rookie year was as impressive as Dahlin's. And Dahlin's peers have been much more interesting than he, and they only got 1 year extra of development. Dahlin spending one more year in the SHL could have possibly closed that gap, but I am skeptical, and it can never be proven of course. His problems stem from a sort of timidness that he's always had. And his rookie successes climbed the list only because he had a competition sample size of about 4 18 year old defensemen in the last several decades lol, while Nail's competition was an order of magnitude larger in sample size

Ignore the draft stuff, and the super epic historical secondary PP assists. Nail and Rasmus were at a similar level of hockey player in their rookie seasons, and Dahlin's quality as a hockey player has since deteriorated to the point that he is really, really bad. The same thing happened to Nail, and many other prospects who have achieved a player-quality level Dahlin has had now, and they have never climbed out of that hole. Dahlin is not special because his rookie year had some nice passes to Jack, and he is not immune to this possibility. He is bad and it is alarming people in the organization, and probably around the league, who know that ruination could be around the corner. 

You are out to lunch on this one, but you've always disliked Dahlin

I can't in good faith argue this when it's so off base. They had similar offensive production, and Dahlin did it from defense. And no, Yakupov assuredly didn't make up any ground on the defensive end lolll

Dahlin year 2 annihilated Yakupov's second year, at a year younger to boot

Edited March 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Not statistically true his rookie year

It was true. He made the same mistakes he makes now for the same reasons, and did not have some skill or mental element that shut people down and is demonstrable on tape, which he now lacks. 

Using regressions with garbage performance metrics that show his xGA/60 has increased by 0.12 goals since his rookie year doesn't wave that away

Also, his competition for his "historic season" as an 18 year old defenseman, there are only 19 defensemen to ever play at least 50 games in the 100 year history of NHL at age 18. Of these, I recognized about 9 names. The framing of his season as special never jived with me, and the ensuing 2 seasons have shown why 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

Let's get those 82 game paces in their second year on file, here:

Yakupov, 20, a forward - 31 points, minus-43

Dahlin, 19, a d-man - 56 points, minus-10

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You are out to lunch on this one, but you've always disliked Dahlin

I can't in good faith argue this when it's so off base. They had similar offensive production, and Dahlin did it from defense. And no, Yakupov assuredly didn't make up any ground on the defensive end lolll

Dahlin year 2 annihilated Yakupov's second year, at a year younger to boot

I would rather have a rookie forward that scores 30 goals than a rookie defenseman that puts up Dahlin's 18-19 season. I'd have a better shot at winning that season by making that trade.

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It was true. He made the same mistakes he makes now for the same reasons, and did not have some skill or mental element that shut people down and is demonstrable on tape, which he now lacks. 

Using regressions with garbage performance metrics that show his xGA/60 has increased by 0.12 goals since his rookie year doesn't wave that away

Also, his competition for his "historic season" as an 18 year old defenseman, there are only 19 defensemen to ever play at least 50 games in the 100 year history of NHL at age 18. Of these, I recognized about 9 names. The framing of his season as special never jived with me, and the ensuing 2 seasons have shown why 

It's the names he was passing on that list - of course there are few that have done it. Plenty of impressive names passed. 

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Let's get those 82 game paces in their second year on file, here:

Yakupov, 20, a forward - 31 points, minus-43

Dahlin, 19, a d-man - 56 points, minus-10

The magic of plus minus. Disingenuous garbage when PLEBS use it, but relevant when I need to use it

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would rather have a rookie forward that scores 30 goals than a rookie defenseman that puts up Dahlin's 18-19 season. I'd have a better shot at winning that season by making that trade.

Ok so what about the bit about how Yakupov went way way down his second year and Dahlin didn't? And how Dahlin's 2nd year is way, way, way better than Yakupov's second? And his 3rd? 

They aren't comparable