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Can the Sabres make the Playoffs In this new division?


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I have alot of optimism about this season. Its just a gut feeling but it feels like the team might be able to feed off the Bills energy flowing through the city right now. 

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1 hour ago, Curt said:

Man, you really pick and choose numbers that fit your argument.  Switching intermittently between ES points, ES goals, total points, total goals, with basically no regard for number of games played.

If you are going to say that Jack didn’t just have his best season, then I don’t have anything else to say.

How about this measure for offensive improvement?  The Sabres scored more goals and more ES goals last season then they have since 2012-13.

I’m confused, you think Okposo improved offensively because he scored one extra goal at ES despite dropping 29 to 19 points overall?  As to Risto, he scored 4 ES goals each of the last two years and ES points fell from 26 to 23.  Based on games played, which I did mention in my posts, Risto had .33 ES pts per game for both seasons. How is that improvement? 

Curt, crunch the numbers, please find me the returning player, besides Jack, who showed real ES improvement under RK.  Jack improved by 10% from .8 to .88 ES points boosted by an over 50% improvement in shooting % from 9.2 to 15.9.  Reinhart’s ES production fell from .61 to .55. Skinner fell from .62 to .41.  My research shows this effect across the board.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m confused, you think Okposo improved offensively because he scored one extra goal at ES despite dropping 29 to 19 points overall?  As to Risto, he scored 4 ES goals each of the last two years and ES points fell from 26 to 23.  Based on games played, which I did mention in my posts, Risto had .33 ES pts per game for both seasons. How is that improvement? 

Curt, crunch the numbers, please find me the returning player, besides Jack, who showed real ES improvement under RK.  Jack improved by 10% from .8 to .88 ES points boosted by an over 50% improvement in shooting % from 9.2 to 15.9.  Reinhart’s ES production fell from .61 to .55. Skinner fell from .62 to .41.  My research shows this effect across the board.

Sure, I can crunch the numbers.

Only 13 players played over 20 games for Buffalo in each of the past 2 seasons.  Out of those players, several had significant increases in production under Krueger.

Eichel went from ES 56 points in 77 games (0.73) to 50 in 68 (0.74).  Not sure where you got your numbers for him from.  Your Skinner and Reinhart numbers don’t seem to be right either.  Are you looking at ES points per game?  Where are you getting your numbers from?

Kyle Okposo went from ES 18 points in 78 (0.23) to 18 points in 52 (0.35)  52% increase

Dahlin went from 24 in 82 (0.29) to 21 in 59 (0.36)  24% increase

Larsson went from 13 in 73 (0.18) to 18 in 62 (0.29).  61% increase

Mitts went from 15 in 77 (0.19) to 7 in 31 (0.23). 21% increase

Scandella went from 12 in 63 (0.19) to 9 in 31 (0.29).  53% increase

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50 minutes ago, Curt said:

Sure, I can crunch the numbers.

Only 13 players played over 20 games for Buffalo in each of the past 2 seasons.  Out of those players, several had significant increases in production under Krueger.

Eichel went from ES 56 points in 77 games (0.73) to 50 in 68 (0.74).  Not sure where you got your numbers for him from.  Your Skinner and Reinhart numbers don’t seem to be right either.  Are you looking at ES points per game?  Where are you getting your numbers from?

Kyle Okposo went from ES 18 points in 78 (0.23) to 18 points in 52 (0.35)  52% increase

Dahlin went from 24 in 82 (0.29) to 21 in 59 (0.36)  24% increase

Larsson went from 13 in 73 (0.18) to 18 in 62 (0.29).  61% increase

Mitts went from 15 in 77 (0.19) to 7 in 31 (0.23). 21% increase

Scandella went from 12 in 63 (0.19) to 9 in 31 (0.29).  53% increase

Hockey-reference.com

Really?  Mitts, sentdown for being terrible. Scandella stupidly traded.  Plus Larsson and Okposo.  Not exactly key offensive contributors to our team. I agree Dahlin was better, but of course RK reduced his PT from 22 minutes to 19.

Actually it’s 14 players.  So who went the other way; who remainded flat? Reinhart, Sheary, Montour, and Skinner were significantly worse, while Risto, Z, Erod, and McCabe flat.

Also how did the new guys do? Vesey, Miller?  Both were worse with their new team. MoJo was actually better.

Ultimately the vast majority of his key players under-performed in RK’s first year.  Like I said before, not all that should be laid at laid at RK’s feet. Jbot and the players also bare responsibility.  However there is enough here to be concerned about how RK’s sets his lineup and question whether his system limits offense. 

 

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2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Hockey-reference.com

Really?  Mitts, sentdown for being terrible. Scandella stupidly traded.  Plus Larsson and Okposo.  Not exactly key offensive contributors to our team. I agree Dahlin was better, but of course RK reduced his PT from 22 minutes to 19.

Actually it’s 14 players.  So who went the other way; who remainded flat? Reinhart, Sheary, Montour, and Skinner were significantly worse, while Risto, Z, Erod, and McCabe flat.

Also how did the new guys do? Vesey, Miller?  Both were worse with their new team. MoJo was actually better.

Ultimately the vast majority of his key players under-performed in RK’s first year.  Like I said before, not all that should be laid at laid at RK’s feet. Jbot and the players also bare responsibility.  However there is enough here to be concerned about how RK’s sets his lineup and question whether his system limits offense. 

 

Ok.

You asked me to find you a returning player whose offensive production went up.  I found several.

You said that your research showed offensive reduction across the board.  To me it looks like about half and half, in other words normal.

You say Krueger was bad for the offense, but the team scored more goals per game.

The numbers you presented were wrong.  Your assertions were wrong.  What do you want me to do?

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m confused, you think Okposo improved offensively because he scored one extra goal at ES despite dropping 29 to 19 points overall?  As to Risto, he scored 4 ES goals each of the last two years and ES points fell from 26 to 23.  Based on games played, which I did mention in my posts, Risto had .33 ES pts per game for both seasons. How is that improvement? 

Curt, crunch the numbers, please find me the returning player, besides Jack, who showed real ES improvement under RK.  Jack improved by 10% from .8 to .88 ES points boosted by an over 50% improvement in shooting % from 9.2 to 15.9.  Reinhart’s ES production fell from .61 to .55. Skinner fell from .62 to .41.  My research shows this effect across the board.

 

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I'm not sure exactly what you guys are debating, but it's indisputable that the Sabres were a better ES team under Krueger last year than they were the previous year under Housley.

That's the case both in counting stats and advanced stats.

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6 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m going to push back a little against some of this.

Okposo was better last season than in 2018-19.  He looked better and he produced better at ES.  If you look at his ES production it actually was his best season as a Sabre.

Ristolainen produced at a career high rate at ES.  Overall his points were down a little because Dahlin took a lot of his PP time.  Similar to Okposo, Risto was as productive as ever at ES last season.

Those two guys actually had really good seasons under Krueger.  I don’t know how you can say that they got worse.

Also, just as a note.  Skinner had an extremely similar season in 2014-15 (in fact even worse at ES) and returned to being very productive immediately after.

At one end of the ice, re: Risto

Edited by Thorny
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4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jack was great last year.  He was a complete player for the 1st time and he focused more on scoring goals which we needed.  Admittedly it’s in less games but his ES scoring was relatively flat on a gross number. He had 62 ES points (.80 ES pts per game) 2 years ago and only 60 last year (.88 ES pts per game). Better certainly but not “monster” better.  

The biggest change was his shooting % which went from 9.2% to 15.9%, thus allowing him to score more goals despite actually having less scoring chances year over year.  His career best prior to last season was 10.2%.  Lets hope that the more accurate shooting Jack is here permanently.   

Please don’t read this as a criticism of Jack. It isn’t.  He is our most dynamic player and now one of the best and most complete centers in the NHL. He deserves a winning cast around him.  I just don’t think creating two checking lines is a smart approach for a team desperate for offense, especially when we have the talent in the organization to create a 3rd scoring line and one excellent shutdown line. 
 

 

Honestly, I feel he's been this way for 2 seasons now. Your ES number there in the second bold a big part of that. 

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm not sure exactly what you guys are debating, but it's indisputable that the Sabres were a better ES team under Krueger last year than they were the previous year under Housley.

That's the case both in counting stats and advanced stats.

It's true. 

Edited by Thorny
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13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Another noted projection. 

 

(Prior to the draft lottery) Projected to pick........8th 😆

Seriously, please, anything but 8th. 

And with that projection, if everybody else hit their expected point production, should the Sabres convert only 2 last minute Hutton special regulation losses into OT W's then the Sabres make the playoffs w/ 62 points.  Possibly even as a 3 seed.

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5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And with that projection, if everybody else hit their expected point production, should the Sabres convert only 2 last minute Hutton special regulation losses into OT W's then the Sabres make the playoffs w/ 62 points.  Possibly even as a 3 seed.

We see the inherent issue with this right haha

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18 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yeah, sure.  Was just discussing ES offense.  No desire to defend Risto’s defensive play.  

Fair enough, but even if we don't count what he gave up in the production equation (what good is a goal For if it comes with a goal Against) you did say the words "he had a good season" which to my mind has to factor in all around. 

Good season in terms of specifically what he generated, For, at ES, I agree. 

Edited by Thorny
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10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Fair enough, but even if we don't count what he gave up in the production equation (what good is a goal For if it comes with a goal Against) you did say the words "he had a good season" which to my mind has to factor in all around. 

Good season in terms of specifically what he generated, For, at ES, I agree. 

I actually edited that a couple mins after I wrote it because I wasn’t fully happy with what I said and wanted to be more specific.  It just got quoted before I got the edit in, lol.

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5 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

Skinner gets back to over 30 goals and we get some decent goaltending and this team has a chance. Cozens in the Calder race could make us real good. 

You need to add better penalty killing to your list. 

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