Taro T Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, Thorny said: It makes no sense to me whatsoever that Detroit should benefit from this. Why? So, are 1-3 up for grabs or just 1? Odds for the 8 teams that make the "playoffs" are the same as last year, they just can't win #1? What the league actually went with gives Detroit no extra edge. Slots 1-15 get the same lottery odds as they were originally slated to have. (Buffalo in 7th slot has 6.5% chance of winning.) If any of place holders 8-15 win any of the 3 draws, there will be a 2nd draw with however many draws as there were lottery wins by those slots. Each of the 8 qualifier losers will have 12.5% odds of winning the best of those remaining draws, and then 1/7th chance of winning a 2nd draw & 1/6 of a chance of winning that 3rd draw should the Sabres slide all the way down to 10th overall from 7. That 2nd draw would be held before the 16 team playoffs begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 41 minutes ago, Taro T said: What the league actually went with gives Detroit no extra edge. Slots 1-15 get the same lottery odds as they were originally slated to have. (Buffalo in 7th slot has 6.5% chance of winning.) If any of place holders 8-15 win any of the 3 draws, there will be a 2nd draw with however many draws as there were lottery wins by those slots. Each of the 8 qualifier losers will have 12.5% odds of winning the best of those remaining draws, and then 1/7th chance of winning a 2nd draw & 1/6 of a chance of winning that 3rd draw should the Sabres slide all the way down to 10th overall from 7. That 2nd draw would be held before the 16 team playoffs begin. So if a lower 8 team wins a draw, they re-draw it with the lower teams eligible? I don't get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Thorny said: So if a lower 8 team wins a draw, they re-draw it with the lower teams eligible? I don't get it. Basically, they are saying the eight losers of the play-in round didn’t make the playoffs. The seven teams already out get the lottery odds they would have normally got. Eight other NHL placeholders also go in the lottery. The lottery proceeds like it normally would, with three winners moving up and after the draft every one of the not-so-magnificent 7 knows where they will be picking. If all three winners are from the 7, it’s over. But if a placeholder is one of the winners, another lottery will be held later between the eight play-in losers To determine which of them moves up to that slot. And that will repeat if more than one placeholder comes up. Edited May 27, 2020 by dudacek 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Let’s say teams 3, 1, and 14 win. The draft order becomes: San Jose (Ottawa) Detroit Placeholder Ottawa LA Anaheim New Jersey Buffalo. A lottery of the 8 play-in losers decides who picks 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, dudacek said: Basically, they are saying the eight losers of the play-in round didn’t make the playoffs. The seven teams already out get the lottery odds they would have normally got. Eight other NHL placeholders also go in the lottery. The lottery proceeds like it normally would, with three winners moving up and after the draft every one of the not-so-magnificent 7 knows where they will be picking. If all three winners are from the 7, it’s over. But if a placeholder is one of the winners, another lottery will be held later between the eight play-in losers To determine which of them moves up to that slot. And that will repeat if more than one placeholder comes up. But why not just seed the 8 losers based on standings and award the winning pick to whoever winds up in that slot? Tampa loses the first round of this 24 team playoffs, and has equal odds at an already-allocated-to-the-losing-8 top-3 pick? Stupid. Edited May 27, 2020 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, Thorny said: But why not just seed the 8 losers based on standings and award the winning pick to whoever winds up in that slot? Tampa loses the first round of this 24 team playoffs, and has equal odds at an already-allocated-to-the-losing-8 top-3 pick? Stupid. Tampa can’t though. They’re already in the playoffs, with the 7 other top teams. Like I said up top, the NHL is pretending the play-in isn’t a playoff, it’s their way of deciding the bottom eight playoff teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, dudacek said: Tampa can’t though. They’re already in the playoffs, with the 7 other top teams. Like I said up top, the NHL is pretending the play-in isn’t a playoff, it’s their way of deciding the bottom eight playoff teams. Still, teams 9-16 could potentially find themselves as lottery winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Best team that can win the lottery is PIttsburgh, pacing for a little over 100 points. Montreal was in the lottery with 96 last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, dudacek said: Best team that can win the lottery is PIttsburgh, pacing for a little over 100 points. Montreal was in the lottery with 96 last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, dudacek said: Best team that can win the lottery is PIttsburgh, pacing for a little over 100 points. Montreal was in the lottery with 96 last year. Which is pretty unusual. It's generally about ~ 10 point swing (92-102), which is far from negligible, especially when a 17th place team having the potential to win it to begin with is something that's already dumb. Edited May 27, 2020 by Thorny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broken Ankles Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 The phase II concept behind this is completely bogus. It just confirms the NHL bias for teams like Chicago, NYR, and Montreal. Where they get a chance to play and a chance to get a top three draft pick. Unacceptable. Weak ownership by Buffalo et al to approve the NHLs proposal to end their season and not get a single quid pro quo. Basically the same odds as if Covid and the pause never happened. The only silver lining is the previous proposal where only #1 was available is off the table. Could change the boards tone and narrative in July/August when we do finish in the top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Thorny said: Which is pretty unusual. It's generally about ~ 10 point swing (92-102), which is far from negligible, especially when a 17th place team having the potential to win it to begin with is something that's already dumb. I don’t disagree with you, Chances that a 100-point team is going to lose the play-in and win the lottery - effectively twice - aren’t great. Id say they are probably pretty similar to a 96- or 98-point team winning the lottery in a normal year. The league has tried to get what it wants (revenue and exposure) while setting up a playing field that replicates its ‘normal’ as much as it could under very weird circumstances. The play-in is its attempt to replicate the playoff race for those teams that were still in it. And for the record, I’m not endorsing it, just explaining why the league did. Edited May 27, 2020 by dudacek 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Thorny said: But why not just seed the 8 losers based on standings and award the winning pick to whoever winds up in that slot? Tampa loses the first round of this 24 team playoffs, and has equal odds at an already-allocated-to-the-losing-8 top-3 pick? Stupid. Probably because if the team that currently would be 8th (Moe-ray-all) KNEW before they started playing their series that by losing they were guaranteed the #1 pick overall, they would readily & easily throw their ( likely) 5 game series against the East's current #5 team (Pittsburgh?). Or if teams knew the team with the 15th best odds gets the #1 or #2, you might see that team try to throw their series to get that pick. Tampa can't lose in the 1st preliminary round as the top 4 teams in each conference will play a round robin tournament to determine the 1st - 4th seeds while teams 5-12 battle to see which 4 will become their opponents in the round of 16. The league still hasn't decided how many games the rounds prior to the semis will be (best of 5 or best of 7; that preliminary round might have already been decided to be a best of 5, but the next 2 could ho either way). They also haven't decided whether to go with seedings (like NFL & NHL typically use) or to go w/ brackets like for NCAA Basketball. They're still making stuff up on the fly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Why even say what the lottery is until after the season/playoffs? Especially this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, spndnchz said: Why even say what the lottery is until after the season/playoffs? Especially this year. The answer given was to give the fans of the Unmagnificent 7 something to get excited about. Are you excited? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, spndnchz said: Why even say what the lottery is until after the season/playoffs? Especially this year. Because they are probably going to do the lottery before the playoffs are complete. Edited May 27, 2020 by Curt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Lottery balls must be very expensive. If the odds aren't changing, it's pretty clear that they just don't want to buy new balls. And I'll wait and see who makes the comment first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, shrader said: Lottery balls must be very expensive. If the odds aren't changing, it's pretty clear that they just don't want to buy new balls. And I'll wait and see who makes the comment first. ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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