2019 NHL Draft

[FrenchConnection44]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Being large does not mean you're physical. Zegras and Krebs are more physical than Dach.

Of course size doesn't mean physicality in itself; but it's missing the point about what the Sabres need - more size & physical presence on the front line.

I'd like to see us land Boldy or Podkolzin or Cozens b/c of their speed and size. 

However, Dach is such a smooth talented player in the league he plays in he hasn't needed to be physical. That said, as he gets bigger and stronger in the weight room and develops an NHL grinding mentality, his physical presence in the next 2-3-4 years will bring much more to the table in that regard than Zegras or Krebs will; and I wouldn't say Zegras is more physical than Dach. Even as Dach is not yet a player who tries to be physical, he still brings a physical presence to the slot. But, Dach will need to get in a weight room, get his size in the 210 range and then he'll bring a natural physicality to the game with ease. 

The only smaller guy I'd be okay with - but don't think will be there - is Turcotte b/c of the style he plays. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by FrenchConnection44

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Of course size doesn't mean physicality in itself; but it's missing the point about what the Sabres need - more size & physical presence on the front line.

I'd like to see us land Boldy or Podkolzin or Cozens b/c of their speed and size. 

However, Dach is such a smooth talented player in the league he plays in he hasn't needed to be physical. That said, as he gets bigger and stronger in the weight room and develops an NHL grinding mentality, his physical presence in the next 2-3-4 years will bring much more to the table in that regard than Zegras or Krebs will; and I wouldn't say Zegras is more physical than Dach. Even as Dach is not yet a player who tries to be physical, he still brings a physical presence to the slot. But, Dach will need to get in a weight room, get his size in the 210 range and then he'll bring a natural physicality to the game with ease. 

The only smaller guy I'd be okay with - but don't think will be there - is Turcotte b/c of the style he plays. 

Give me a second... 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Being large does not mean you're physical. Zegras and Krebs are more physical than Dach.

I kind of disagree.  In what ways are Zegras and Krebs more physical than Dach?

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I kind of disagree.  In what ways are Zegras and Krebs more physical than Dach?

How they play the game. 

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Being large does not mean you're physical. Zegras and Krebs are more physical than Dach.

I agree that was true in the regular season but I thought Dach was a beast in the playoffs.  Maybe im remembering it wrong?

[JohnRobertEichel]

11 hours ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

I don't think there's any way we get a shot at Kakko though he would be a great addition. 

I simply don't want any more small, finesse players. We need talented players, but we need more physicality to stand up to bigger teams. It's still a physical game. 

I'd take Cozens, Boldy, or Dach. All three have size, skill and can skate, thought Dach is not as good a skater as the others. 

Just not a fan of a 5'11, 180 lb player. We have way too many of those. We've got to get bigger!

At the end of round 1, assuming we go with a forward in the top of round 1, I'd look for another quality defender. 

 

 

 

I 100% agree that the roster needs to get bigger and more physical (two different qualities that can be mutually exclusive). However, I disagree that the draft is where you necessarily make these decisions. I'd prefer the Sabres use the draft strictly to select players they think will have the most impact at the NHL level. In other words: best player available. This is especially true for a top 10 pick. Size, style of play, and position shouldn't dictate who gets chosen with the 7th overall pick. If the Sabres have a glut of players of a certain type or at a certain position, then the GM should use trades and free agency to balance out the roster. If Cole Caufield is projected to be a clone of Alex DeBrincat at the NHL level while - say - Dach is projected to be the next Mikhail Grigorenko, then just take Caufield at #7 and maybe wait until July to add forwards with size.

[Curt]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

How they play the game. 

Ok. I guess you don’t want to discuss it.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Of course, but that misses the point. It's not just about the weight they are right now, but about the frame and physicality. I'm referring to guys like Caufield, Zegras, Krebs, etc. who are smaller. Whereas a Cozens, who only weighs 180 right now, has the physical frame at 6'3 to fill out and go 210+ one day. But, then there are players who are already big - Kakko, Dach, Boldy and will get bigger and stronger as they move into the NHL weight room. 

The '5'11 180' number was not specifying one player but was a generic reference. 

But, we actually have seven forwards under 6 feet: Sobotka, Wilson, Sheary, Larsson, Skinner, Olafsson, and Rodriguez. And, depending on which site (ESPN, NHL) of the 14 forwards on the squad at the end of the year, only 5 were over 200 lbs, and 4 of those are listed right at 200-201 or so. 

THere's just not a big physical presence on the front line. Small, fast players are fine; but when your whole forward lineup is average to under size you lose something. You don't bring much in the way of an intimidating physical presence. Sure, if everyone of them has the explosive offensive talent of a Kucherov or Brayden Point, you might get away with that (But Tampa Bay also got crushed in the playoffs).

But, I think it's important to have more players the size of a Matthews or Laine or Blake Wheeler (6'5, 225) to balance out some of our more smallish lineup and talent. 

Look at Toronto, Washington, Winnipeg, St. Louis and several other playoff teams - they all have a number of front line players 6'2, 6'3, 6'4 +  well over 200 lbs, with talent and who bring a significant physical presence to their teams. Something that really has been missing with the Sabres. It helps overall, it helps defensively, and if you get in the playoffs it helps with that long 2nd season grind. 

 

Since I think this is 100% wrong I went out to look at the NHL playoffs and who did what. Our parameters then are provided by you. A player must be 74 inches or taller and well over 200lbs. I would say well over is what? 215/220. Let's go with 215 but again a prospects weight is completely arbitrary. 

I sorted the list of playoff players by PPG to normalize the scoring. Of course guys who scored a lot in round 1 and went home are going to get a bump but still. This gave us 47 forwards to look at. If you scored less than 8 points in the playoffs, you got excluded. 

Sorted by height, there were 14 players at the cutoff you created of 6'2" or 74 inches. The average PPG for that group is .83 keeping in mind that linemates Stone and Pacioretty were at the top of the list partially because they played in so few games but scored well in those few games. I almost removed all the first round exits to stabilize the ppg but decided to leave them in. 

33 players were at or below 73 inches. They averaged a ppg of 0.75. I can get that tall group to that PPG just by taking out Stone's ppg (1.71). There is no correlation that says a player over 6'2" is better somehow because they are taller. 

Now weight. There were 11 players at or over 215 and they average .84ppg where as the 36 players below that weight average .75... Mark Stone once again is a major outlier and a reason for the difference, without him the heavy group is at .76

There just isn't a lot of credibility to the notion that height somehow has a major impact on performance. Weight also seems to follow the same pattern. If I correct for Mark Stone's outlandish 1.71ppg than basically the numbers are equal. 

Now let's take the extremes... so 75 inches and up and 70 inches and down. This one is fun. If you were 75 inches and higher you get a .082ppg and that includes Stone. If you were 70 inches or shorter you get a .85ppg. The numbers for the outliers are small so that should be considered but still, nothing jumps out. 71" =.77ppg, 72" =.80ppg, 73"+74" =.73ppg

So I completely disagree with your bolded statement. There is not evidence that this is something that exists or impacts results. The lone exception is Stone/Pacioretty. Even though Stone was great in the playoffs his team still did not advance. We don't need to be 6'3" 220lbs, we need talented players with grit regardless of size. 

I also want to point out a flaw in your own statement. You note that Tampa lost in the playoffs and then implore me to examine Toronto, Washington, and Winnipeg. All 3 teams lost in the first round along with Tampa. The average NHL height in 2017/2018 was 73.1 inches or 6'1". The average weight was 200.7lbs. https://theathletic.com/210035/2018/01/12/sizing-up-the-nhl-2017-18-nhl-teams-by-age-height-and-weight/

Since you mentioned Tampa, they were the lightest team and that might be something they need to look at. Height though, I just don't believe it matters. We can't talk about weight on a prospect because a 6'0" Zegras type prospect may not grow any taller but the chances of them playing at 173lbs in the NHL are low. Zegras for example could be 6' 190lbs when he is NHL ready. So I do not think we should be using player height as an exclusion factor for prospects. There is no evidence that this makes them more physical or more able to be effective playoff producers. 

 

 

53 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I agree that was true in the regular season but I thought Dach was a beast in the playoffs.  Maybe im remembering it wrong?

But that has nothing to do with is height. 

He was good in the playoffs but Caufield was great at the worlds so 6 to 1, half a dozen... 

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Ok. I guess you don’t want to discuss it.

Krebs was all over the ice last year and involved in everything. He battled in corners, in front, you name it. Zegras had some perimeter play but I don't think it was because he was not physical but that he was a passing phenom. He is probably a bad example as Zegras is not overly physical although he is a pest.  Turcotte would be better. Turcotte is very physical and engaged. Cozens, was physical in his play below the goalline and in front of the net. Dach to me had moments of it but this goes back to his consistency. I of course did not see all of his games. I saw a handful and not in person, but still there were times where I felt like he got outworked physically. This can come with maturity but I would rather take a player that is already physically engaged than 1 I have to teach that too. 

[LGR4GM]

It's weird because I do like Dach. I just think there are players that play a more gritty game than he does. We have a chance of drafting him unless all the LA chatter is right and they take him. 

Skating, not size is my most important factor when looking at draft picks these days. 

[LGR4GM]

On 6/11/2019 at 8:58 AM, LGR4GM said:

Well I don't feel like tweaking this anymore. I have spent some time with most of the top 30. Read some stuff, watched some stuff, listened to some stuff. The bottom guys I have either read about, watched, or heard about. Once you get out of the top 50 or so players it because much harder to get a read on players but I did my best and tried to find some sleeper type guys for the bottom of the list. There are no goalies on here because goalies are like fortune cookies, you never know which ones will come true. My final list ended with 52 players. It could have easily been 60 but I cut off the last group. If you don't see your favorite player, sorry. I am sure I somehow overlooked someone.

I tried to update height and weights for most people. I used their combine numbers if they had them. For some of the guys at .25" or .75" in height I just rounded up or down accordingly. Skating matters a lot for me as does if I read or see "float". Float is when you are not actively engaging in the play by directly attacking a puck carrier or getting in a position to support. Also I do look at offensive production. I don't honestly care if you are 6'6" 220lb defender if you have only 15 points in 68 games you aren't getting in the top 20. Size matters less to me up to a point. There is a range for what I consider an average size. I am sure many will disagree with my list but here it is. 

 

Just keep in mind, players 5-12 are very interchangeable and it all depends on your preference and what you like. That's what will make this draft so fun. 

[LGR4GM]

Here is a fun chart to look at...

 

[Crusader1969]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Just keep in mind, players 5-12 are very interchangeable and it all depends on your preference and what you like. That's what will make this draft so fun. 

I don't think we should bat-an-eye if Newhook who is listed at 7 on your spreadsheet is the actual pick.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I don't think we should bat-an-eye if Newhook who is listed at 7 on your spreadsheet is the actual pick.

He's my darkhorse pick. I love his game. He needs 2 years in college probably. 

[Brawndo]

6 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

I don't think we should bat-an-eye if Newhook who is listed at 7 on your spreadsheet is the actual pick.

 

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

He's my darkhorse pick. I love his game. He needs 2 years in college probably. 

He reminds a lot of Turcotte, speed, tenancy and a 200 Foot Game. 

The Athletic Mock Draft has Turcotte, Dach, Cozens and Zegras all gone before the Sabres Pick. Joe Yerdon selected Caufield, but Newhook has to be in the discussion. 

[dudacek]

Not a lot has been made on here about the quote from Turcotte’s dad that he Alex will not drop past us, that we have him ranked at three.

That should make many Sabrespacers happy, but I just struggle to see a scenario that turns into Turcotte dropping to 7.

I think the Hawks will pick either Turcotte or Byrum, full stop.

I can see the Kings possibly going with one of the big Canadians because they are the Kings.

I have no idea what to expect from Colorado or Detroit. I expect each to go with their highest-ranked player available and odds are good that could be Turcotte. But I wouldnt be surprised to see one of them taking Caufield; he is certainly the wild card in the mix.

Could the other go with Dach or Cozens or even off the board? And if they are targeting a guy off the board, will Sakic or Yzerman be dangling their pick to move down slightly? Will we be willing to pay a price to step up and get our guy?

The lack of consensus and the logjam of talent means the first 15 picks could unfold in so many ways.

And who do we pick if it doesn’t?

This is the most fascinating Sabres choice for me since Reinhart. And the team hasn’t given us much at all in the way of hints.

Edited June 13, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not a lot has been made on here about the quote from Turcotte’s dad that he Alex will not drop past us, that we have him ranked at three.

That should make many Sabrespace happy, but I just struggle to see a scenario that turns into Turcotte dropping to 7.

I think the Hawks will pick either Turcotte or Byrum, full stop.

I can see the Kings possibly going with one of the big Canadians because they are the Kings.

I have no idea what to expect from Colorado or Detroit. I expect each to go with their highest-ranked player available and odds are good that could be Turcotte. But I wouldnt be surprised to see one of them taking Caufield; he is certainly the wild card in the mix.

Could the other go with Dach or Cozens or even off the board? And if they are targeting a guy off the board, will Sakic or Yzerman be dangling their pick to move down slightly? Will we be willing to pay a price to step up and get our guy?

The lack of consensus and the logjam of talent means the first 15 picks could unfold in so many ways.

And who do we pick if it doesn’t?

This is the most fascinating Sabres choice for me since Reinhart. And the team hasn’t given us much at all in the way of hints.

I won't believe Botterill will take a CHL guy until he actually does it, so rightly or wrongly I personally can't help feeling it's simply going to come down to whoever is left of Turcotte, Boldy, Caufield and Zegras once it gets to our pick

[Brawndo]

Sam Cosentino did a question and answer session on Reddit. Someone asked him who the Sabres might take at 31. His response was John Beecher 

Here is what Cam Robinson said about him

30. John Beecher, C / 04-05-01 / 6’3 209lbs / USNTDP

A heavy, defensively responsible pivot who brings all sorts of speed and strength to the rink each night. Doesn’t wow with his offensive mind or creativity, but plays the simple, north-south style of game that will translate nicely to an NHL middle six. His heavy release doesn’t come off too quickly, but when he has time and space, it can be very difficult to stop. Has been hidden behind a plethora of talented pivots at The Program which has likely affected his draft stock.

 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Sam Cosentino did a question and answer session on Reddit. Someone asked him who the Sabres might take at 31. His response was John Beecher 

Here is what Cam Robinson said about him

30. John Beecher, C / 04-05-01 / 6’3 209lbs / USNTDP

A heavy, defensively responsible pivot who brings all sorts of speed and strength to the rink each night. Doesn’t wow with his offensive mind or creativity, but plays the simple, north-south style of game that will translate nicely to an NHL middle six. His heavy release doesn’t come off too quickly, but when he has time and space, it can be very difficult to stop. Has been hidden behind a plethora of talented pivots at The Program which has likely affected his draft stock.

 

I’ve seen Beecher ranked in and around our second pick. He’s fast, but scouts like him most for his frame and that doesn’t seem to be a priority for us. He’s never struck me as clever or talented enough to be a guy we target there.

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I won't believe Botterill will take a CHL guy until he actually does it, so rightly or wrongly I personally can't help feeling it's simply going to come down to whoever is left of Turcotte, Boldy, Caufield and Zegras once it gets to our pick

I think there is a very real chance they end up with Caufield. It wouldn’t disappoint me exactly, but I suspect there will be others on the board I like better.

I have no doubt Caufield has the competitive edge needed to overcome his size. I just hesitate to take a one-dimensional guy that high if there are more rounded guys available. 

Caufield’s upside is Skinner and we already have a Skinner. I think I’d prefer a Marner (Zegras) Stone (Boldy) O’Reilly (Krebs) or Domi (Newhook). 

Acknowledging that I have no real insight into how likely it is any of these guys reach their ceilings.

Maybe Caufield is Mike Bossy.

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think there is a very real chance they end up with Caufield. It wouldn’t disappoint me exactly, but I suspect there will be others on the board I like better.

I have no doubt Caufield has the competitive edge needed to overcome his size. I just hesitate to take a one-dimensional guy that high if there are more rounded guys available. 

Caufield’s upside is Skinner and we already have a Skinner. I think I’d prefer a Marner (Zegras) Stone (Boldy) O’Reilly (Krebs) or Domi (Newhook). 

Acknowledging that I have no real insight into how likely it is any of these guys reach their ceilings.

Maybe Caufield is Mike Bossy.

I'm at the same place re: Caufield

[LGR4GM]

You know, i've watched more of Caufield lately. His defensive game is better than I thought. I don't love it but i don't hate it. He's got a good motor. 

[LGR4GM]

Ethan Keppen, 6'2" 214lb LW. He played on team that was not good and still managed to impress. He has good skating, good shot, and was a major driver of offensive play. If he is available in the 3rd round there is almost no one that I would take over him. 

Quote

“I bring power up the ice, and that creates a lot of space for my linemates. I’m always hard on the forecheck, always making hits to try to create a battle out there. I’m good at retrieving pucks. That’s my offensive game. I’m always trying to play a 200-foot game, which means I try to backcheck very hard. I try to block shots and be a good half-wall player.

“I try to bring a lot of body presence to the game, is probably one of my biggest abilities.”

https://www.eprinkside.com/2019/3/14/ethan-keppen-looking-to-make-lasting-impression

 

[LGR4GM]

I currently think the Sabres are looking at Caufield, Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, and Zegras. That is in no particular order but I think that is where they are at. 1 of those 5. 

[North Buffalo]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I currently think the Sabres are looking at Caufield, Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, and Zegras. That is in no particular order but I think that is where they are at. 1 of those 5. 

Depends on who goes after 4 and if a second D is selected before then.