The Ryan O'Reilly super thread 2015!!!

[Derrico]

I love the thought of ROR on this team but if Risto or Bogo are part of the deal then I'll pass.

[LGR4GM]

Even if we have this assumption in place that ROR value is depressed because of his contract (something I don't believe will factor in much this summer) we all seem to agree Colorado would want a defender.  Now Zadorov is extremely unproven, Pysyk has shown some good upside but again there are question marks there.  We can toss out Gorges and Weber (not the right fit or talent level).  That leaves us with Ristolainen and Bogosian.  You are trading for a proven commodity.  I would assume that if Colorado really wants defense, they ask for a proven defensive commodity who isn't long in the tooth.  Realistically that leaves 2 guys.  Note that if you include 1 of those 2 guys that is just part of the deal.  Pick/s and a prospect is also going to be included.  Prospect who is highly regarded like Baptiste/Bailey, maybe Grigorenko is you believe the Roy connection or that Grigorenko is trending up.  

 

So right now the price (again believing his contract deflates value) according to the board would be:

Risto/Bogo + a pick (1st or 2nd rounder) +  a prospect (Bailey, Baptiste, Grigorenko, maybe Zadorov/McCabe etc...) = Ryan O'Reilly

Edited May 19, 2015 by LGR4GM

[Derrico]

I think the board would say replace Risto/Bogo with Zadorov/Pysyk.

 

If you make the assumption his trade value is depressed based on the contract then you don't go Risto/Bogo.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Derrico

[LGR4GM]

I think the board would say replace Risto/Bogo with Zadorov/Pysyk.

 

If you make the assumption his trade value is depressed based on the contract then you don't go Risto/Bogo.

If you are Colorado and the main piece of a ROR deal is Zadorov/Pysyk, then how fast do you hang up the phone? 

 

Again is he a top 30 forward in the league or isn't he?  

[LastPommerFan]

If you are Colorado and the main piece of a ROR deal is Zadorov/Pysyk, then how fast do you hang up the phone? 

 

Again is he a top 30 forward in the league or isn't he?  

 

Nash moved for Dubinsky, Anisimov, Erixon and a first.

 

Neal moved for Hornqvist and Spalling and Neal had good term at value left on the contract.

 

Vanek moved for Moulson a 1st and a 2nd.

 

Jordan Staal moved for a first, Sutter, and Dumoulin.

 

Pick another team that might be interested in ROR, what is the "better offer" from them going to be?

Edited May 19, 2015 by Whiskey Bottle of Emotion

[dudacek]

If you are Colorado and the main piece of a ROR deal is Zadorov/Pysyk, then how fast do you hang up the phone? 

 

Again is he a top 30 forward in the league or isn't he?  

 

Bobby Ryan: Jakub Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen and a 1st 

Sabres equivalent: Mikhail Girgorenko, Justin Bailey and a 1st

 

Jame Neal: Patrick Hornqvist and Nick Spaling

Sabres equivalent: Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson

 

Ryan Kesler: Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa and a first

Sabres equivalent: Tyler Ennis, Mike Weber and a first

 

Ryan Callahan: Martin St Louis, a first and a conditional 2nd

Sabres equivalent: Brian Gionta (plus), a first and a second

 

Jason Pominville: Matt Hackett, Johan Larsson, a 1st and a 2nd

Sabres equivalent: Matt Hackett, Johan Larsson, a 1st and a 2nd

 

Rick Nash:  Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Jan Erixon, 1st

Sabres equivalent: Marcus Foligno, Mikhail Grigorenko, Jake McCabe, 1st

 

You keep insinuating it will take a frontline player or prospect to get O'Reilly.

History shows that's not the case in similar situations.

 

EDIT: Whiskey beat me to it.

Edited May 19, 2015 by dudacek

[Derrico]

If you are Colorado and the main piece of a ROR deal is Zadorov/Pysyk, then how fast do you hang up the phone? 

 

Again is he a top 30 forward in the league or isn't he?  

I don't know if he's top 30, but he's definitely top 90, probably top 50 even.  Look below for some examples of other top line players that were moved.  Don't even get me started on what Seguin was moved for.

 

Edit, and now more examples from dudacek.  Yes I think he's a top 50 player.  Yes I think he can be acquired for a package that does not include Risto/Bogo.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Derrico

[LGR4GM]

Nash moved for Dubinsky, Anisimov, Erixon and a first.

 

Neal moved for Hornqvist and Spalling and Neal had good term at value left on the contract.

 

Vanek moved for Moulson a 1st and a 2nd.

 

Jordan Staal moved for a first, Sutter, and Dumoulin.

 

Pick another team that might be interested in ROR, what is the "better offer" from them going to be?

All of those moves involve a definite NHL player going the other way. 

 

The best offer from another team?  That could be anything.  It can easily be better than Zadorov, Grigorenko and a 2nd rounder.

 

Boston:  Lucic, Joe Morrow, 2nd round pick.  

Edmonton: Eberle, Juhar Khaira, 1st round pick

 

Player, Prospect, Pick is really easy for almost any team.  I mean we could have infinite numbers of variations on this.  Toronto could put together this type of package.  Really most teams could if they value O'Reilly. 

[LastPommerFan]

All of those moves involve a definite NHL player going the other way. 

 

The best offer from another team?  That could be anything.  It can easily be better than Zadorov, Grigorenko and a 2nd rounder.

 

Boston:  Lucic, Joe Morrow, 2nd round pick.  

Edmonton: Eberle, Juhar Khaira, 1st round pick

 

Player, Prospect, Pick is really easy for almost any team.  I mean we could have infinite numbers of variations on this.  Toronto could put together this type of package.  Really most teams could if they value O'Reilly. 

 

The only defensemen you have listed has less NHL time than Zadorov and Pysyk?

 

What is the better offer for the Aves than Nikita, Grigorenko, and a 1st?

Edited May 19, 2015 by Whiskey Bottle of Emotion

[Patty16]

If you are Colorado and the main piece of a ROR deal is Zadorov/Pysyk, then how fast do you hang up the phone? 

 

Again is he a top 30 forward in the league or isn't he?  

 

He is not. And no one inside hockey thinks he is. 

[LastPommerFan]

And Lucic doesn't help them at all since he's UFA at the same time.

 

They're gonna want someone they can hold on to, either an RFA or a guy with term left.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

Bobby Ryan: Jakub Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen and a 1st 

Sabres equivalent: Mikhail Girgorenko, Justin Bailey and a 1st

 

Jame Neal: Patrick Hornqvist and Nick Spaling

Sabres equivalent: Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson

 

Ryan Kesler: Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa and a first

Sabres equivalent: Tyler Ennis, Mike Weber and a first

 

Ryan Callahan: Martin St Louis, a first and a conditional 2nd

Sabres equivalent: Brian Gionta (plus), a first and a second

 

Jason Pominville: Matt Hackett, Johan Larsson, a 1st and a 2nd

Sabres equivalent: Matt Hackett, Johan Larsson, a 1st and a 2nd

 

Rick Nash:  Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Jan Erixon, 1st

Sabres equivalent: Marcus Foligno, Mikhail Grigorenko, Jake McCabe, 1st

 

You keep insinuating it will take a frontline player or prospect to get O'Reilly.

History shows that's not the case in similar situations.

 

EDIT: Whiskey beat me to it.

 

I'm sorry did you just compare Martin St Louis and Brian Gionta? 

 

Also the the Pominville deal doesn't take into account Matt Hackett's current value at all.

 

Dubinsky and Anisimov were both NHL players at the time of that trade, not guys with 60 NHL games to their name.  The only one of those trades I agree with is the Bobby Ryan trade has obvious similarities.  Moulson was an established 30 goal scorer.  

 

You guys want your cake and you want to eat it too.  The amount of anti-logic on hear has been astounding the last few days. ROR is a top 30 player, ROR isn't worth more than some top prospects and a pick.  ROR deserves 8mil a year.  ROR value is low because of his contract. Back n forth back n forth.  I mean why should Colorado trade him at all this summer if his value is low?  Why not hold until the trade deadline when someone will gladly unload an NHL player and some prospects for a cup run?  

 

I want consistency and we don't have any.  Either O'Reilly is worth an established player plus a prospect or a pick (which all those other trades include) or he isn't.  If he isn't then how is his worth so low when Colorado is in complete control of the situation.  This board told me his was a top 30 player.  You told me that.  You told me he is worth 8mil a year.  So why is his value a couple of big question mark prospects (Zadorov/Grigorenko + Bailey/Baptiste + a mid level 1st rounder)?  

 

How about this.  Let us pretend for a moment that the Sabres and the Avalanche completely flipped teams.  So we have ROR on the last year of his deal going into this summer.  We can re-sign him, trade him, or play it out this season.  Say we want to see what the trade market will be like.  ROR again is your player, as the GM we value him as one of the top all around players in the league.  What would you move him to another team for?  Again you can trade him but you don't have to. You can still re-sign him or wait until the deadline.

The only defensemen you have listed has less NHL time than Zadorov and Pysyk?

 

What is the better offer for the Aves than Nikita, Grigorenko, and a 1st?

 

 

And Lucic doesn't help them at all since he's UFA at the same time.

 

They're gonna want someone they can hold on to, either an RFA or a guy with term left.

You know why you asking me to make your argument is actually complete BS?  And I am being honest.  Because you want me to predict and understand all the prospects pool and team needs of 28 other NHL teams and then fabricate a trade scenario.  It would honestly take me hours if not days to compile.  If I wanted to do just 3 teams we could take the rest of today to debate it.  

I am not asking these questions and making this argument because I hate ROR.  I am asking because I want to know what people are willing to do to acquire him and what they are willing to pay him to retain his services.  

I don't know if he's top 30, but he's definitely top 90, probably top 50 even.  Look below for some examples of other top line players that were moved.  Don't even get me started on what Seguin was moved for.

 

Edit, and now more examples from dudacek.  Yes I think he's a top 50 player.  Yes I think he can be acquired for a package that does not include Risto/Bogo.

We agreed that he is worth 8mil a year!  That would tie him for top 12 and I was being nice going out to top 30 because depreciation of other contracts.  If his talent level makes him worth that, and his trade value is lower because of his current length of contract, why is it only worth 3 question marks?  Top Prospect, Prospect, Pick?

 

I know this sounds like I am being a pain but I really want people to consider this.  There is a discord between what we say he is worth talent wise, what he is worth monetarily, and what we are willing to actually give up to acquire him. 

Edited May 19, 2015 by LGR4GM

[LastPommerFan]

I'm sorry did you just compare Martin St Louis and Brian Gionta? 

 

Also the the Pominville deal doesn't take into account Matt Hackett's current value at all.

 

Dubinsky and Anisimov were both NHL players at the time of that trade, not guys with 60 NHL games to their name.  The only one of those trades I agree with is the Bobby Ryan trade has obvious similarities.  Moulson was an established 30 goal scorer.  

 

You guys want your cake and you want to eat it too.  The amount of anti-logic on hear has been astounding the last few days. ROR is a top 30 player, ROR isn't worth more than some top prospects and a pick.  ROR deserves 8mil a year.  ROR value is low because of his contract. Back n forth back n forth.  I mean why should Colorado trade him at all this summer if his value is low?  Why not hold until the trade deadline when someone will gladly unload an NHL player and some prospects for a cup run?  

 

I want consistency and we don't have any.  Either O'Reilly is worth an established player plus a prospect or a pick (which all those other trades include) or he isn't.  If he isn't then how is his worth so low when Colorado is in complete control of the situation.  This board told me his was a top 30 player.  You told me that.  You told me he is worth 8mil a year.  So why is his value a couple of big question mark prospects (Zadorov/Grigorenko + Bailey/Baptiste + a mid level 1st rounder)?  

 

How about this.  Let us pretend for a moment that the Sabres and the Avalanche completely flipped teams.  So we have ROR on the last year of his deal going into this summer.  We can re-sign him, trade him, or play it out this season.  Say we want to see what the trade market will be like.  ROR again is your player, as the GM we value him as one of the top all around players in the league.  What would you move him to another team for?  Again you can trade him but you don't have to. You can still re-sign him or wait until the deadline.

 

 

You know why you asking me to make your argument is actually complete BS?  And I am being honest.  Because you want me to predict and understand all the prospects pool and team needs of 28 other NHL teams and then fabricate a trade scenario.  It would honestly take me hours if not days to compile.  If I wanted to do just 3 teams we could take the rest of today to debate it.  

I am not asking these questions and making this argument because I hate ROR.  I am asking because I want to know what people are willing to do to acquire him and what they are willing to pay him to retain his services.  

 

I'm not certain the bold part makes any sense. Typically teams going on a cup run don't unload NHL Players as they will need them for their cup run.

 

I'm not asking you to make my argument, I'm asking you to put an example behind your argument. My contention is that no team will beat Zadorov + Grigorenko + a First round pick. That is the best offer the aves will receive this summer. I think they wait until the deadline to see if they can resign him, but his value will be lower at that point as he will be more likely to pursue UFA and teams will be less likely to part with players that have NHL experience heading into the playoffs.

[Derrico]

Who said he's a top 30 player?  This started as a top 3 forward (top 90 player).

[LGR4GM]

I'm not certain the bold part makes any sense. Typically teams going on a cup run don't unload NHL Players as they will need them for their cup run.

 

I'm not asking you to make my argument, I'm asking you to put an example behind your argument. My contention is that no team will beat Zadorov + Grigorenko + a First round pick. That is the best offer the aves will receive this summer. I think they wait until the deadline to see if they can resign him, but his value will be lower at that point as he will be more likely to pursue UFA and teams will be less likely to part with players that have NHL experience heading into the playoffs.

Fine I will go do the research.  Seriously I feel like I should be hired to do research...  :flirt:

[LastPommerFan]

Fine I will go do the research.  Seriously I feel like I should be hired to do research...  :flirt:

 

That's what all them Masters Degrees are for!!! :-)

[LGR4GM]

Who said he's a top 30 player?  This started as a top 3 forward (top 90 player).

okay... this board as a whole, has agreed that ROR should be paid 8mil per year for his next contract.  If you list all the players making 7.5mil or higher in the NHL that would make ROR tied for 12th overall in pay.  I am saying that makes him a top 30 player because you are paying him like one.  I used 30 because there will be players below #12 on older contracts that have not benefited from the rise in cap but may posses more talent than ROR. 

[Hoss]

If you are Colorado and the main piece of a ROR deal is Zadorov/Pysyk, then how fast do you hang up the phone?

 

Again is he a top 30 forward in the league or isn't he?

You're horrible at following this conversation. No, the board does not say the deal will include aristo/Bogo. Freeman said that. Just about everybody else has said hell no.

And nobody has said he's a top 30 forward. The comments have been top 90.

[Derrico]

okay... this board as a whole, has agreed that ROR should be paid 8mil per year for his next contract.  If you list all the players making 7.5mil or higher in the NHL that would make ROR tied for 12th overall in pay.  I am saying that makes him a top 30 player because you are paying him like one.  I used 30 because there will be players below #12 on older contracts that have not benefited from the rise in cap but may posses more talent than ROR. 

Salaries paid =/= quality of player!!  That's the point that you keep bringing up I don't agree with.  Was Ville Leino the 50th best NHL player or whatever he was based on his contract?

[Hoss]

okay... this board as a whole, has agreed that ROR should be paid 8mil per year for his next contract. If you list all the players making 7.5mil or higher in the NHL that would make ROR tied for 12th overall in pay. I am saying that makes him a top 30 player because you are paying him like one. I used 30 because there will be players below #12 on older contracts that have not benefited from the rise in cap but may posses more talent than ROR.

This line of thinking has already been addressed multiple times. You can't really compare him to many contracts because many were signed well before the cap rise was known and in different circumstances.

Salaries paid =/= quality of player!! That's the point that you keep bringing up I don't agree with. Was Ville Leino the 50th best NHL player or whatever he was based on his contract?

And what he said

[Derrico]

My parents house is considerably nicer than mine but I paid $10,000 more for my house 15 years later.  Does that make my house better than my parents? 

 

Back when Sidney Crosby signed his long term deal in 2012 - Great players got paid 8.7 Million

Now Toews and Kane signed recently for over 10 million per year.

 

The cost for an elite elite player is 10+ million per year.  I don't need to use a bunch of comparables signed years ago to set the market.

 

Paul Stastney set the market last year at $7 million for that quality of a player.  If Stastney can get $7 Million then ROR can get 7.5 to 8 next year.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Derrico

[LastPommerFan]

okay... this board as a whole, has agreed that ROR should be paid 8mil per year for his next contract.  If you list all the players making 7.5mil or higher in the NHL that would make ROR tied for 12th overall in pay.  I am saying that makes him a top 30 player because you are paying him like one.  I used 30 because there will be players below #12 on older contracts that have not benefited from the rise in cap but may posses more talent than ROR. 

 

make it 60 to compensate for guys who cut long term deals as RFAs, and thus had lower numbers due to their decreased bargaining position. Then make it 90 to account for the guys that are top forwards on entry level and bridge contracts. Talent is a factor in compensation, but timing is an even bigger factor.

[Samson's Flow]

okay... this board as a whole, has agreed that ROR should be paid 8mil per year for his next contract.  If you list all the players making 7.5mil or higher in the NHL that would make ROR tied for 12th overall in pay.  I am saying that makes him a top 30 player because you are paying him like one.  I used 30 because there will be players below #12 on older contracts that have not benefited from the rise in cap but may posses more talent than ROR. 

I really resisted joining this conversation because I don't have much interest in ROR, but I got sucked in by Liger's contract logic.

 

What a player makes in a UFA contract year has more to do with supply and demand than comparison of contracts. In a year where there is one good talent and a bunch of schmucks, say when Brad Richards was a UFA, his contract terms didn't say he was a top 10 player, it had more to do that he was the only good talent available and the next best was Ville freakin' Leino. If all the teams with cap room are bidding on one asset, the price is going to be higher. It's just market economics.

 

You pay what the competitive market says you need to, otherwise you don't get the player. Nevermind if Crosby or Stamkos or whomever makes less AAV. If you don't pay X, then you don't get the player.

[LGR4GM]

He went 33rd on the consensus draft didn't he?  So top 30... moving on.  

[Samson's Flow]

Salaries paid =/= quality of player!!  That's the point that you keep bringing up I don't agree with.  Was Ville Leino the 50th best NHL player or whatever he was based on his contract?

 

 

This line of thinking has already been addressed multiple times. You can't really compare him to many contracts because many were signed well before the cap rise was known and in different circumstances.

 

And what he said

 

What they said...