Offensive expectations

[nfreeman]

I am basing it off of his numbers in the years before he left the NHL, they were good but dropping steadily. Then you take into account that he spent 3 years playing in the KHL which everyone says is not as talented. So now you have a player who was in decline before he left and is older, he has not been competing at the NHL level and finally the NHL has tightened up since Jagr's departure as far as post lockout hockey. Is Jagr better than pominville over all as a player if you put them head to head, yes. Jagr is a future hall of famer and i doubt pommers is. Jagr was great, but right now I would rather have pominville and the steady 2-way game he bring to a team that has experimented with "vets" coming in for leadership and the skills they bring and none of them have panned out.

 

Summary: His 3 years of non NHL play, Smaller ice, Tighter defense than when he left, Age 39, Decline in production prior to leaving.

 

Pominville I think just has more to offer and Jagr isn't getting younger. As far as the original thing which was top 25 RW, I am not sure Pommers belongs in that conversation, but a guy who hasnt played in the NHL in 3 years definitely does not. If he comes back and lights everyone up and drops a 70-80pt season than awesome, but I am feeling more like a 50-60pt vibe from him and I can get that from Pommers and also the pk, pp skills he brings.

 

THIS IS JUST MY OPINION. I understand Jagr is a great hockey player and am not bashing him in any way, shape, or form.

Reasonable response. I will note that Pommer certainly brings PK skills to the table, but not PP skills. He adds zero value to the PP -- and this is where Jagr adds the most. And juicing up a PP, especially in the playoffs, is a rarer and more valuable skill than being a good PK'er. The Sabres have a number of guys who could take Pommer's PK time. They don't have anyone like Jagr on the PP (although I have hopes for Leino).

 

I'll also note that Pommer's production has been in the same type of decline that you mentioned for Jagr, and that the tightening of play that has occurred in the NHL over the past few years has hurt Pommer, who is a smaller player with a limited offensive game, more than it will hurt Jagr.

 

(full disclosure - I never really liked the idea of Jagr as a teammate. I'm not convinced he could be happy in a reduced role either )

This is a fair point and I can see the same thing. But IF he were to buy in to a 13-to-16-min-per-night role with a lot of PP time, I think he would be more valuable to the Sabres than Pommer.

 

I dont know if its me but I think the flyers are in a lot of trouble. I dont see how they replace Carter and Richards. I dont think they will even make the playoffs.

Claude Giroux is still extremely good. He might even be better than Carter and Richards, and has the potential to be better. We'll see what happens when he's on he first line. A lot of the Flyers season will hang on the prospect of if opposing teams can shut Giroux down. But now Philly has fewer players to shut down.

 

Schenn has some ridiculous talent too, but it is early days for him.

I think the Flyers' season will hinge mostly on Pronger's health. If he plays 70 games and is healthy down the stretch, they'll be in the mix for their division title.

[LGR4GM]

I like this Idea using last seasons standings at the end of the regular season.

 

1 z - Washington- Upgraded goal tending, added veteran presence on the blue line

2 y - Philadelphia- Upgraded goaltending, got rid of two of their top six, added a grandpa that hasnt played in three years

3 y - Boston- Won The Cup, lost recchi, lost some other role players, another year of maturity for tyler and he was scary good at times in the playoffs if he finds consistency this year I'm worried

4 x - Pittsburgh- Malkin and Crosby hopefully return healthy

5 x - Tampa Bay- Didn't really do much

6 x - Montréal- Erik Cole was an underrated pick up, I love his game

7 x - Buffalo- Ehrhoff, Leino, no connolly, roy healty all season(fingers crossed), a real backup goalie, Regehr AWESOME

8 x - NY Rangers- Added richards and kept their main pieces

9 Carolina- Kaberle and Stewart arent bad, I dont think they got better though probably a push

10 Toronto- The got Tim Connolly, they must be the cup favorite

11 New Jersey- I have no idea what this franchise is doing besides ruining the end of brodeurs career

12 Atlanta- Who?

13 Ottawa- They suck still

14 NY Islanders- A pretty decent team down the stretch but young. Another year will def help. Reasoner is a decent pick up.

15 Florida- Got campbell and jovanovski to help out their defense. I think bergenheim is a bust but if he can play like he did in the playoffs(he cant) he is a huge addition. Also scottie upshall, they wont finish in last this year.

Actually I was hoping you re-rank teams for this season, call it a start of the season ranking. The sabres i think will finish higher than 7th so I would rank them that way... i'll do it when i get home.

[X. Benedict]

Reasonable response. I will note that Pommer certainly brings PK skills to the table, but not PP skills. He adds zero value to the PP -- and this is where Jagr adds the most. And juicing up a PP, especially in the playoffs, is a rarer and more valuable skill than being a good PK'er. The Sabres have a number of guys who could take Pommer's PK time. They don't have anyone like Jagr on the PP (although I have hopes for Leino).

 

Jagr's last year in the NHL...7pp goals.

 

Pominville is usually good for about 20 pp points. Which isn't bad at all for a two-way guy.

 

 

I'll also note that Pommer's production has been in the same type of decline that you mentioned for Jagr, and that the tightening of play that has occurred in the NHL over the past few years has hurt Pommer, who is a smaller player with a limited offensive game, more than it will hurt Jagr.

 

I have a very different perception. Pominville has a very good shot. Last year it was wrist trouble, this year it was the noggin. But the guy has been very consistent even with injury. I would expect 20-30 goals. (provided he can skate).

 

This is a fair point and I can see the same thing. But IF he were to buy in to a 13-to-16-min-per-night role with a lot of PP time, I think he would be more valuable to the Sabres than Pommer.

I see your logic. It is an interesting thought.

 

I think the Flyers' season will hinge mostly on Pronger's health. If he plays 70 games and is healthy down the stretch, they'll be in the mix for their division title.

I think if Briere or Giroux struggle, the Flyers will limp.

 

 

BTW - I think Pommer's skating skills are very underrated.

He might not have breakaway speed, but he has tremendous balance, and unless he's getting hit from behind he almost never loses his feet from under him. He is very good driving to the net without the puck.

[nfreeman]

Jagr's last year in the NHL...7pp goals.

 

Pominville is usually good for about 20 pp points. Which isn't bad at all for a two-way guy.

 

I have a very different perception. Pominville has a very good shot. Last year it was wrist trouble, this year it was the noggin. But the guy has been very consistent even with injury. I would expect 20-30 goals. (provided he can skate).

To be a bit more specific, Jagr's last year in the NHL included 71 points and 29 PP pts. This was for an offensively constipated Rangers team (25th in the NHL in scoring, 22nd on the PP).

 

Pommer does indeed have a very good shot. However, that shot, along with a good hockey IQ, are his only offensive skills. I don't think he'll exceed 25 goals or 60 pts again in his career. Again, he's a good all-around player. I just think he's limited and the other teams around the league know how to defend him and if given the choice, I'd rather have Jagr, especially given their respective contracts.

[X. Benedict]

To be a bit more specific, Jagr's last year in the NHL included 71 points and 29 PP pts. This was for an offensively constipated Rangers team (25th in the NHL in scoring, 22nd on the PP).

Good stat. Do you think he's still got it? I'm very skeptical.

 

Pommer does indeed have a very good shot. However, that shot, along with a good hockey IQ, are his only offensive skills. I don't think he'll exceed 25 goals or 60 pts again in his career. Again, he's a good all-around player. I just think he's limited and the other teams around the league know how to defend him and if given the choice, I'd rather have Jagr, especially given their respective contracts.

 

Pommer is a very good play-maker/passer.

 

Jagr's assists usually come from whoever jams home his shot on a rebound.

 

Good discussion though, But I think once you weigh-in shootouts, PK, etc. I like Pominville. We'll see how it plays out.

[BetweenThePipes00]

Actually I was hoping you re-rank teams for this season, call it a start of the season ranking. The sabres i think will finish higher than 7th so I would rank them that way... i'll do it when i get home.

 

Off the top of my head, don't hold me to it ...

 

1. Pittsburgh - assuming Crosby is 100 percent and Malkin is close

2. Washington - will still have to prove it in playoffs but they'll win that division.

3. Boston - there's a little bit if a "they did it with mirrors!" vibe, the sum is greater than the parts, etc., but they win the division until someone knocks them off.

4. Buffalo - if I start typing I won't stop, you know what they did

5. Tampa - not sure how many years they can squeeze out of Roloson but they will score

6. Philly - not what they were last year but plenty good if the defense stays healthy and JVR keeps rising

7. NYR - Richards can't hurt, will have to fight to get in like last season

8-11. Montreal, Carolina, Toronto, Florida - put them however you want, one will sneak in, the others won't and none will be left after round 1

12. Winnipeg - I am losing interest in this fast ...

13. New Jersey - got hot last year but new coach again ... who knows?

14. NY Isles - Will surely beat Buffalo at least twice to piss us off

15. Ottawa - someone has to be last ...

[dEnnis the Menace]

Off the top of my head, don't hold me to it ...

 

1. Pittsburgh - assuming Crosby is 100 percent and Malkin is close

2. Washington - will still have to prove it in playoffs but they'll win that division.

3. Boston - there's a little bit if a "they did it with mirrors!" vibe, the sum is greater than the parts, etc., but they win the division until someone knocks them off.

4. Buffalo - if I start typing I won't stop, you know what they did

5. Tampa - not sure how many years they can squeeze out of Roloson but they will score

6. Philly - not what they were last year but plenty good if the defense stays healthy and JVR keeps rising

7. NYR - Richards can't hurt, will have to fight to get in like last season

8-11. Montreal, Carolina, Toronto, Florida - put them however you want, one will sneak in, the others won't and none will be left after round 1

12. Winnipeg - I am losing interest in this fast ...

13. New Jersey - got hot last year but new coach again ... who knows?

14. NY Isles - Will surely beat Buffalo at least twice to piss us off

15. Ottawa - someone has to be last ...

 

I dig it. I agree with all of this based on the offseason. only 70 and change more days...till puck drop...

[nfreeman]

Good stat. Do you think he's still got it? I'm very skeptical.

 

Pommer is a very good play-maker/passer.

 

Jagr's assists usually come from whoever jams home his shot on a rebound.

 

Good discussion though, But I think once you weigh-in shootouts, PK, etc. I like Pominville. We'll see how it plays out.

I'm quite sure that Jagr has lost a step but I think he's still got enough to be a major weapon on the PP and on, say, a 65% workload 5-on-5. And I think he's a much better passer and playmaker than Pommer. Pommer knows where everyone is on the ice and how to move the puck around within the system, but I don't think he has the skill level to create scoring chances and pressure the defense. (Very few do, and Jagr is one of them.)

 

OTOH, there is at least a 30% chance that Jagr is both ineffective and a locker room problem child this year, while the chance of this for Pommer is closer to 2%.

[X. Benedict]

I'm quite sure that Jagr has lost a step but I think he's still got enough to be a major weapon on the PP and on, say, a 65% workload 5-on-5. And I think he's a much better passer and playmaker than Pommer. Pommer knows where everyone is on the ice and how to move the puck around within the system, but I don't think he has the skill level to create scoring chances and pressure the defense. (Very few do, and Jagr is one of them.)

 

OTOH, there is at least a 30% chance that Jagr is both ineffective and a locker room problem child this year, while the chance of this for Pommer is closer to 2%.

 

I guess I've never really appreciated Jagr's playmaking much.

 

Of course its been a few years, but my perception in the past was always that he was more of a guy that could get over 300 shots or more to net and a lot of those get banged home which accounts for a lot of his career points.

 

I don't think he's the type to thread many passes.

[korab rules]

I guess I've never really appreciated Jagr's playmaking much.

 

Of course its been a few years, but my perception in the past was always that he was more of a guy that could get over 300 shots or more to net and a lot of those get banged home which accounts for a lot of his career points.

 

I don't think he's the type to thread many passes.

He wasn't a playmaker in the traditional sense of that word, but the the guy was (is?) so big and strong that he is impossible to knock off the puck. No one can handle him one on one coming of the half wall. The length of time that he controls the puck alone results in open team mates for him to feed because their defenders lose track of them. And yes, a lot of his assists are of the variety you describe.

 

I, too, would rather have Jagr than Pominville, at their current price tags, for this year. We have other players, alone or in combination, who can do what pommers does. We don't have anyone who can do what Jagr can do (or at least what he did 3 years ago). I think this is pommers last year here anyway. We can't afford to waste cap space now that we are playing with the big boys. That 1.5 million he is being overpaid would be really nice to have.

[X. Benedict]

He wasn't a playmaker in the traditional sense of that word, but the the guy was (is?) so big and strong that he is impossible to knock off the puck. No one can handle him one on one coming of the half wall. The length of time that he controls the puck alone results in open team mates for him to feed because their defenders lose track of them. And yes, a lot of his assists are of the variety you describe.

I think the ability to protect the puck is still there in Jagr.

But from the World Championships, I saw no evidence of the leg stregth he once had, which accounted for those stregth type moves.

 

I, too, would rather have Jagr than Pominville, at their current price tags, for this year. We have other players, alone or in combination, who can do what pommers does. We don't have anyone who can do what Jagr can do (or at least what he did 3 years ago). I think this is pommers last year here anyway. We can't afford to waste cap space now that we are playing with the big boys. That 1.5 million he is being overpaid would be really nice to have.

 

 

This is hypothetical of course, but there is no way I would want Jagr on my team. Never liked him, never thought he was a team player, and he's old. Now he'll probably go on to score 100 pts :lol: .....but even still....I never liked him as a featured player, so I'll probably never appreciate him much as a bit player unless he redefines his game.

As a PowerPlay specialist.....that is a lot of money and a roster spot.

 

Here's an interting look - Perezhogin played with montreal on the 3rd line in 2006...he played on Omsk with Jagr...

They were 42-9.

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0050162011.html

 

Maybe Jagr gets 20 goals, but I'm thinking no.

[korab rules]

I think the ability to protect the puck is still there in Jagr.

But from the World Championships, I saw no evidence of the leg stregth he once had, which accounted for those stregth type moves.

 

 

 

 

This is hypothetical of course, but there is no way I would want Jagr on my team. Never liked him, never thought he was a team player, and he's old. Now he'll probably go on to score 100 pts :lol: .....but even still....I never liked him as a featured player, so I'll probably never appreciate him much as a bit player unless he redefines his game.

As a PowerPlay specialist.....that is a lot of money and a roster spot.

 

Here's an interting look - Perezhogin played with montreal on the 3rd line in 2006...he played on Omsk with Jagr...

They were 42-9.

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0050162011.html

 

Maybe Jagr gets 20 goals, but I'm thinking no.

Never cared for Jagr as a Capital, and hated him (but respected what he could still do with no help) as a Ranger, but man, in the cup years in Pitt? That guy had one luscious mullet. Man could he play.

 

[X. Benedict]

Never cared for Jagr as a Capital, and hated him (but respected what he could still do with no help) as a Ranger, but man, in the cup years in Pitt? That guy had one luscious mullet. Man could he play.

As a Pen years ago, he was weapons grade plutonium.

[nfreeman]

Never cared for Jagr as a Capital, and hated him (but respected what he could still do with no help) as a Ranger, but man, in the cup years in Pitt? That guy had one luscious mullet. Man could he play.

 

As a Pen years ago, he was weapons grade plutonium.

It was a magnificent mullet. And he was still extremely dangerous with the Rangers, including being in the mix for the Hart trophy one season.

[LGR4GM]

To be a bit more specific, Jagr's last year in the NHL included 71 points and 29 PP pts. This was for an offensively constipated Rangers team (25th in the NHL in scoring, 22nd on the PP).

 

Pommer does indeed have a very good shot. However, that shot, along with a good hockey IQ, are his only offensive skills. I don't think he'll exceed 25 goals or 60 pts again in his career. Again, he's a good all-around player. I just think he's limited and the other teams around the league know how to defend him and if given the choice, I'd rather have Jagr, especially given their respective contracts.

I can't agree with this at all. Pommers is entering his prime and last years head trouble and overall team suckage contributed to the first time since his rookie year he dropped below 60pts and I think 25goals is about his average so I see him hitting that mark this year. I am going with 26g and 39a for 65pts if he comes back at the start of the season and can get into the flow of things early... if he has not fully recovered I would still venture to say that 55-65pts is not out of the question and easily attainable for pominville. Personally I think 65pts is lowballing him and I could see him going 28g, 45a with Vanek and Leino on a line with him or even Ennis or Roy

[RazielSabre]

They still have a pretty solid defense and now a real goalie ... I am not saying they are as good as last season, but minus-20 is REALLY bad ... even on his mediocre islanders or Canes teams Laviolette never had a guy minus-20.

 

EDIT: I still don't think Jagr will be minus-20, but about Philly ... I have no idea what their defensive depth is like in their system, but I can't imagine they get as lucky with injuries again this season. last year they had FIVE d-men play 81 or more games, including a 35-year old and a 39-year old. Only Pronger missed more than ONE game. That can't happen again.

 

Holy cow, thats luck for ya. We'll see what happens. I'd still rather beat 'em fair and square. :D

[RazielSabre]

It was a magnificent mullet. And he was still extremely dangerous with the Rangers, including being in the mix for the Hart trophy one season.

 

Wasn't he the only bright spot on an all-star cast that failed in every way imaginable?

[Evan Almighty]

Holy cow, thats luck for ya. We'll see what happens. I'd still rather beat 'em fair and square. :D

 

How would beating them when they have injuries not be fair? Injuries are part of sports, it's why you need depth. Did they not beat us fair and square because Roy and Pommer were hurt? The only time anyone in sports can use injuries as an excuse is if your starting qb goes down, and even then the best teams have a Frank Reich or a Tom Brady or a Matt Cassell ready to go.

 

Sorry for the rant but using injuries as an excuse is a huge pet peeve of mine.

[nfreeman]

I can't agree with this at all. Pommers is entering his prime and last years head trouble and overall team suckage contributed to the first time since his rookie year he dropped below 60pts and I think 25goals is about his average so I see him hitting that mark this year. I am going with 26g and 39a for 65pts if he comes back at the start of the season and can get into the flow of things early... if he has not fully recovered I would still venture to say that 55-65pts is not out of the question and easily attainable for pominville. Personally I think 65pts is lowballing him and I could see him going 28g, 45a with Vanek and Leino on a line with him or even Ennis or Roy

I certainly hope you're right. I will not bet against him or any Sabre, but I will own up on this board at the end of the season if you are right and I hope you will do the same if I'm right and/or if he disappears in the playoffs.

 

Wasn't he the only bright spot on an all-star cast that failed in every way imaginable?

Are you kidding? Without looking, can you name any of that Rangers team's (2005-06) top 5 scorers other than Jagr? And who else on that team besides Lundqvist could be considered an NHL star?

[Andrew Amerk]

Straka had to be in the top 5 that season as his center and former Pens teammate...

[RazielSabre]

How would beating them when they have injuries not be fair? Injuries are part of sports, it's why you need depth. Did they not beat us fair and square because Roy and Pommer were hurt? The only time anyone in sports can use injuries as an excuse is if your starting qb goes down, and even then the best teams have a Frank Reich or a Tom Brady or a Matt Cassell ready to go.

 

Sorry for the rant but using injuries as an excuse is a huge pet peeve of mine.

 

Dude, it was a light hearted attempt at saying we can beat em with a full team or with no dmen, lighten up :)

[RazielSabre]

I certainly hope you're right. I will not bet against him or any Sabre, but I will own up on this board at the end of the season if you are right and I hope you will do the same if I'm right and/or if he disappears in the playoffs.

 

 

Are you kidding? Without looking, can you name any of that Rangers team's (2005-06) top 5 scorers other than Jagr? And who else on that team besides Lundqvist could be considered an NHL star?

 

I meant the team that had Kovalev, Bure, Jagr, Lindros et al. 2002-03ish if I remember correctly.

[BetweenThePipes00]

I meant the team that had Kovalev, Bure, Jagr, Lindros et al. 2002-03ish if I remember correctly.

 

Your memories are kind of running together ... Bure was in NY in 2002-03 but Jagr wasn't there yet ... Jagr didn't get there until the middle of 03-04, and Lindros got hurt 3 games later so they really never played together either. But that is probably the team you are thinking of because it also had Kovalev, Messier in his last season and Leetch until he went to Toronto at the deadline.

[LGR4GM]

I certainly hope you're right. I will not bet against him or any Sabre, but I will own up on this board at the end of the season if you are right and I hope you will do the same if I'm right and/or if he disappears in the playoffs.

 

absolutely. :thumbsup:

[X. Benedict]

 

 

Are you kidding? Without looking, can you name any of that Rangers team's (2005-06) top 5 scorers other than Jagr? And who else on that team besides Lundqvist could be considered an NHL star?

 

Nylander and Straka are the only ones that come to mind. Jagr's linemates I think.

 

It really was a one scoring line team.