Paul Hamilton on WGR this morning...

[korab rules]

He was on pace for 41 goals and 28 assists (69 points) for a full 82 game season (which, yes, I know is not the same thing as actually accomplishing those stats, thank you Tim Connolly). So, let's examine other forwards in that neighborhood:

 

Player	Age	Goals	Assists	Points	2011-12 Salary
Ryan Kesler	26	41	32	73	$5M
Bobby Ryan	24	34	37	71	$5.6M
Jeff Carter	26	36	30	66	$5.2M (average of front-loaded contract)
Patrick Sharp	29	34	37	71	$4.2M
Patrick Marleau	31	37	36	73	$6.9M

 

Factor in some points about Stafford:

-Career year in 2010-11. Other campaigns were not as impressive (only 14-20-34 in 71 games a year ago).

-Restricted free agent. This is expected to be his last RFA contract.

-Significant special teams ice time in 2010-11: 19 of his 52 points came on PP.

 

I think the Sabres will/should/could/better offer him between $4.6M-$5.4M per year on a 3-4 year contract. It would lock him in at a good market rate for his production and it would extend our rights to him for a couple of years into his UFA. The Sabres would only get screwed if he went all Connolly on us, but you can't always predict that, and even then you can trade or buy out (maybe a more approachable option now with Pegula?).

 

And who knows, if we're lucky, maybe the Sabres make most of Stafford's salary back in hat sales.

 

Horton is the better comparison. On a good day, Staff is Horton with a little less of a mean streak but a little more offensive upside.

[Weave]

I'd rather trade Stafford's rights than pay him $5M for the next several years. We have plenty of RW's. We need centers. That kind of payday would really affect our ability to go out and get good center talent under the salary cap.

[Weave]

There have been a lot of posts lately seeking to excuse poor performance by Sabre wingers due to lousy centers. Here's something: last season, Gaborik had 42-44-86 for the Rangers (in 76 games) with worse centers than the Sabres have.

 

Great players produce despite non-great linemates.

 

I am decidedly not OK with giving Stafford $5MM or even $4MM per year. He's a career underachiever who got hot for a stretch this year and then disappeared in crunch time. I'll admit that I liked his overall game much better this year than ever before, and that he is a 25-year-old forward with good size and good hands and improved maturity, but still, there is NFW I would give him a big long-term contract.

 

Yep. To all of it, but especially the part in bold.

[Robviously]

And who were his centers during that series? Its amazing we scored any goals with that lineup. For a team that is supposed to have 2 of the top 20 centers in the league, I'm not sure we had one in the top 75 during that series. Our center play was truly horrible.

 

I'm not pleased with Stafford's play during that series, but the effort was there and he was getting shots on goal. If he sinks that shot in the 3rd period of game 6 he's a hero.

There you go again, bringing context to a perfectly reasonable discussion about how all our players are terrible and indifferent.

 

Get with the program, man! Everyone sucks. Nobody cares. We have no leaders. And everyone is overpaid.

 

<_<

[korab rules]

I'm going to be sick. Not at your prediction, mind you, but at the thought of another Pommer-like contract for Pommer-like performance.

 

 

You aren't.

 

 

There have been a lot of posts lately seeking to excuse poor performance by Sabre wingers due to lousy centers. Here's something: last season, Gaborik had 42-44-86 for the Rangers (in 76 games) with worse centers than the Sabres have.

 

Great players produce despite non-great linemates.

 

I am decidedly not OK with giving Stafford $5MM or even $4MM per year. He's a career underachiever who got hot for a stretch this year and then disappeared in crunch time. I'll admit that I liked his overall game much better this year than ever before, and that he is a 25-year-old forward with good size and good hands and improved maturity, but still, there is NFW I would give him a big long-term contract.

 

I hear you. I'm not excusing poor play by wingers, but you can't ignore the fact that our lines were ######. When Nieds is your first line center you have a problem.

 

What does Gaborik have to do with our wingers? He is in another class altogether. Despite that, how did he do this year? 22/26/48. Staff had 31/21/52. Both played 62 games. Staff at 4x4 is a bargain in comparison.

[IKnowPhysics]

Horton is the better comparison. On a good day, Staff is Horton with a little less of a mean streak but a little more offensive upside.

 

Nathan Horton

2010-11: 80GP 26G 27A 53P

2010-11 $4M

2011-12 $4.5M

2012-13 $5.5M

 

I'd rather trade Stafford's rights than pay him $5M for the next several years. We have plenty of RW's. We need centers. That kind of payday would really affect our ability to go out and get good center talent under the salary cap.

 

Not when we won't have the salaries of Connolly, Rivet, Grier, and Niedermayer (total $10.75M).

[X. Benedict]

I'm going to be sick. Not at your prediction, mind you, but at the thought of another Pommer-like contract for Pommer-like performance.

 

There have been a lot of posts lately seeking to excuse poor performance by Sabre wingers due to lousy centers. Here's something: last season, Gaborik had 42-44-86 for the Rangers (in 76 games) with worse centers than the Sabres have.

 

Hold on....the Rangers were much better down the middle last year. Gaborik had Dubinsky-a healthy Drury- Callahan and Jokinen (? I think)-

 

This year just Callahan and Dubinsky and Boyle ....and a steep fall off in production.

 

Although I still think that Gaborik is an exceptional talent. He wasn't getting off nearly as many shots.

 

Great players produce despite non-great linemates.

 

Perhaps for the ones that can carry the puck. Great players make their linemates better.

 

I am decidedly not OK with giving Stafford $5MM or even $4MM per year. He's a career underachiever who got hot for a stretch this year and then disappeared in crunch time. I'll admit that I liked his overall game much better this year than ever before, and that he is a 25-year-old forward with good size and good hands and improved maturity, but still, there is NFW I would give him a big long-term contract.

 

At some point with Stafford, the organization has to make that call. If he's not worth locking up, he's trade bait. But I think $5 million is a decent market evaluation for him.

[LGR4GM]

4 is pushing it on drew, if you pay him five then watch him disappear some more, be my guest... His market value should not be the same as his hometown value. Ryan freaking Kesler makes 5mil a year because he took a discount. This organization should never pay Stafford 5 that its ridiculous.

[spndnchz]

I posted my analysis before. Someone can search for it, I think it's in a Stafford thread. I think it was 4.3 cap hit comparable to others.

[wonderbread]

I posted my analysis before. Someone can search for it, I think it's in a Stafford thread. I think it was 4.3 cap hit comparable to others.

I will not search for your post but find your answer acceptable.

[deluca67]

For a RW 25 goals is a damn good season.

 

Stafford had 31 in 62 games and is only 25.

 

How much is he worth? Just for fun, give us a number.

10% more than he got this season and not a penny more.

 

You can't justify a $4-5 mil a year contract based on a 25-30 game stretch where he bunched together some hat tricks. It is by far the most ridiculous idea posted on this board in a long time. Stafford will struggle to score 20 goals in this league and won't likely see 30 again in his career. He doesn't have the work ethic.

[nfreeman]

I'd rather trade Stafford's rights than pay him $5M for the next several years. We have plenty of RW's. We need centers. That kind of payday would really affect our ability to go out and get good center talent under the salary cap.

Right on.

 

I hear you. I'm not excusing poor play by wingers, but you can't ignore the fact that our lines were ######. When Nieds is your first line center you have a problem.

 

What does Gaborik have to do with our wingers? He is in another class altogether. Despite that, how did he do this year? 22/26/48. Staff had 31/21/52. Both played 62 games. Staff at 4x4 is a bargain in comparison.

I agree that having better linemates/centers would certainly help the Sabres' forwards (as it would for any team). I just think that only goes so far and doesn't, for example, excuse Stafford for not producing in the playoffs this year.

 

As for Gaborik, I don't like his contract either, but more because he has Connolly-like durability. He is a very talented winger, though, and when he was healthy last season he produced despite not having anyone near his caliber to play with on the Rangers.

 

Hold on....the Rangers were much better down the middle last year. Gaborik had Dubinsky-a healthy Drury- Callahan and Jokinen (? I think)-

 

This year just Callahan and Dubinsky and Boyle ....and a steep fall off in production.

 

Although I still think that Gaborik is an exceptional talent. He wasn't getting off nearly as many shots.

 

Perhaps for the ones that can carry the puck. Great players make their linemates better.

 

At some point with Stafford, the organization has to make that call. If he's not worth locking up, he's trade bait. But I think $5 million is a decent market evaluation for him.

The Rangers were a bit better down the middle last year, but not much. Dubinsky is streaky and often in Torts' doghouse, Drury was better last year than this year, which was essentially a 100% washout (which was, I hate to say it, reminiscent of Rivet's year this year), but he still wasn't much of an offensive presence, and Jokinen only played 26 games for them and was pretty ineffective. (I really like Callahan but he's a winger).

 

You are right that the organization has to make the call on Stafford. It's not an easy decision. I could live with giving him a higher salary than I would like, but not a long-term deal, and only if they can unload Pommer or Hecht.

[Miss_The_Amerks]

You are right that the organization has to make the call on Stafford. It's not an easy decision. I could live with giving him a higher salary than I would like, but not a long-term deal, and only if they can unload Pommer or Hecht.

 

I would like to keep Poms over Hecht or Stafford. But part of me still says Stafford may have some hope. He scores in bunches, but if we can just get to be a tad more consistent, he'd be amazing.

[Kristian]

10% more than he got this season and not a penny more.

 

You can't justify a $4-5 mil a year contract based on a 25-30 game stretch where he bunched together some hat tricks. It is by far the most ridiculous idea posted on this board in a long time. Stafford will struggle to score 20 goals in this league and won't likely see 30 again in his career. He doesn't have the work ethic.

 

I agree, we have enough bad contracts on this team already.

 

Overspending for Stafford will be another step backwards. He's nothing but another playoff MIA, and we have enough of those up front.

 

Regier should hope someone gives him an offer sheet.

[Miss_The_Amerks]

I agree, we have enough bad contracts on this team already.

 

Overspending for Stafford will be another step backwards. He's nothing but another playoff MIA, and we have enough of those up front.

 

Regier should hope someone gives him an offer sheet.

I do fear that we let some of these guys go, because they're not worth the money we pay, and then they go elsewhere and become ridiculously successful. I will cry.

[Kristian]

I do fear that we let some of these guys go, because they're not worth the money we pay, and then they go elsewhere and become ridiculously successful. I will cry.

 

Making decisions out of fear for what a player might do if he goes elsewhere is a poor way to run a hockey club.

 

You worry about players who are here, and how they do while they are here, not somewhere else.

 

If Stafford goes elsewhere and stops being a no-show who only shows up in contract years and disappears in the playoffs regardless, well then that's on Lindy and the coaching staff, not management for not signing him.

 

People throwing numbers like 4 and 5 mill. for Stafford seriously need to have a good hard look at the ridiculous contracts we already have running around for years to come.

 

There is no freakin' way he's worth that, regardless of his "pace" this year.

 

Anything over 3 mill, AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST, and he should be packing his bags, this team has enough guys like him already.

[deluca67]

Making decisions out of fear for what a player might do if he goes elsewhere is a poor way to run a hockey club.

 

You worry about players who are here, and how they do while they are here, not somewhere else.

 

If Stafford goes elsewhere and stops being a no-show who only shows up in contract years and disappears in the playoffs regardless, well then that's on Lindy and the coaching staff, not management for not signing him.

 

People throwing numbers like 4 and 5 mill. for Stafford seriously need to have a good hard look at the ridiculous contracts we already have running around for years to come.

 

There is no freakin' way he's worth that, regardless of his "pace" this year.

 

Anything over 3 mill, AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST, and he should be packing his bags, this team has enough guys like him already.

There is something seriously wrong if 196 points in 317 regular season games and 7 points in 20 playoff games will earn you $4-5 mil a season.

[Kristian]

There is something seriously wrong if 196 points in 317 regular season games and 7 points in 20 playoff games will earn you $4-5 mil a season.

 

Agreed.

 

Problem is there's also something seriously wrong with Darcy.

[deluca67]

Agreed.

 

Problem is there's also something seriously wrong with Darcy.

If there is a silver lining it's that Pegula's money will buy Regier more than enough rope to hang himself with. With the latest excuse for Regier's failures, the imaginary handcuffs, being removed it will be interesting what excuses the pro-Regier crowd will come up with next.

[spndnchz]

I will not search for your post but find your answer acceptable.

 

Found it:

http://forums.sabres...post__p__249940

 

Okay, I've crunched some numbers. Took a look at players around the league with similar stats as Stafford. Now, not 70pt producers, but more like 60pt producers. While Staff is on pace for 70, his three year average is more like 52pts (assuming he played all 82 games).

 

This brings up some older guys (Stafford is 25) like McDonald, Whitney, Huselius. With caps @ 4.7, 3, 4.75 respectively. These guys generally got deals that took them to @ age 35.

 

Then you've got guys in the late 20's. Weiss, age 27, got 6 year deal started in 07-08. Pretty similar to Stafford's two year deal the first two years 1.8 and 2.5. If you looked at the final four years it's a cap hit of 3.57 million over those four years.

 

Now others include:

Booth, age 26, six years 4.25 cap hit

Ryan, age 23, 5yr, 5.1 cap

Wolski, age 24, 2yr deal, 3.8 per

 

Zherdev. Interesting enough, talking about what the arby award may be. He was offered 3.25 mill by the Rangers, he went to arbitration, got 3.9 million and NYR said no.

 

Zherdev and Weiss, I'd say are the closest you'd get to a reasonable number for Stafford to sign.

 

Would Sabres offer him 4 year deal? With years 3 mill, 3.2 mill, 4 mill, and 4.1 cap hit is 3.575 million.

 

For Stafford to get a offer sheet I'd think it would have to be around a Bergeron deal, 3 years, 5 million ish? If the Sabres didn't match that, Sabres would get a first round, 2nd round, and a third round pick. I don't think someone who goes under the 4.12 million or so cap hit on an offer sheet to Stafford wouldn't get matched by the Sabres. If we didn't we'd only get a 1st and 3rd back. Let's remember Stafford was a 13th pick overall.