PASabreFan Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 The problem is that the Sabres just went 9-3-1 in their last 13 games and gained exactly two points on eighth place. It's tough. If they keep this pace up, they'll be OK. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 The real excitement comes in the off-season. New owner, GM and Coach. It's time to start moving forward. None of which are givens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpandean Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 The problem is that the Sabres just went 9-3-1 in their last 13 games and gained exactly two points on eighth place. It's tough. If they keep this pace up, they'll be OK. Good luck. That's quite misleading. In their same games (37-49), Atlanta went 4-6-1, so the Sabres gained 8 points on them. The Thrashers got 3 points in their next 3 games, which are the Sabre's games-in-hand. The Sabres might give back three that they gained (if they lose all three) or get three closer (if they win all three); probably, somewhere in between. Similarly, the Hurricanes went 7-4-2 over their equivalent games. So, even though the Hurricanes caught up to the Thrashers, the Sabres gained 3 points on them. Their next game was a win, so at best the Sabres match it. The basic gist of it is that the Sabres did very well, but played fewer games, making it seem that they didn't gain much, when they actually did ... from a certain point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 That's quite misleading. In their same games (37-49), Atlanta went 4-6-1, so the Sabres gained 8 points on them. The Thrashers got 3 points in their next 3 games, which are the Sabre's games-in-hand. The Sabres might give back three that they gained (if they lose all three) or get three closer (if they win all three); probably, somewhere in between. Similarly, the Hurricanes went 7-4-2 over their equivalent games. So, even though the Hurricanes caught up to the Thrashers, the Sabres gained 3 points on them. Their next game was a win, so at best the Sabres match it. The basic gist of it is that the Sabres did very well, but played fewer games, making it seem that they didn't gain much, when they actually did ... from a certain point of view. The only problem with your Excel based logic is that no two segments of game are the same. Even less for two teams in different divisions. For example, when you break down games (37-49) is the home/away game ratio equal? How about quality of opponent? Is one team going through their toughest stretch and the other their weakest in terms of opponent strength? During the Sabres recent stretch they have gone 1-2 against a sub-par Islander team. How does that fit in the equation? There are two many variables that are unaccounted for in a single spread sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frisky Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 I vote no. According to this article, things look grim. Looks like we're done like dinner. TSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 I vote no. According to this article, things look grim. Looks like we're done like dinner. TSN A big aspect in which teams make the playoffs will be which teams between now and the trade deadline are willing to do what it takes to gain a spot. The Sabres are complete non-factors at the deadline. Their roster is in such a spot where dumping 5-6 guys and not adding any would improve their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 TSN's souce gives the Sabres a 17.6% chance SportsclubStats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpandean Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 The only problem with your Excel based logic is that no two segments of game are the same. Even less for two teams in different divisions. For example, when you break down games (37-49) is the home/away game ratio equal? How about quality of opponent? Is one team going through their toughest stretch and the other their weakest in terms of opponent strength? During the Sabres recent stretch they have gone 1-2 against a sub-par Islander team. How does that fit in the equation? There are two many variables that are unaccounted for in a single spread sheet. I'm not predicting anything or saying anything about their abilities, so none of that matters. I'm simply looking at the time scale for each team in terms of games played rather than real time. In essence, the Sabres haven't progressed as far through time as most anyone else. Sitting where they are at t = 49, they are in 10th place, 3 points behind the 8th and 9th place teams. Atlanta is sitting the furthest ahead in time at t = 52, but they only moved up 3 points in that time. When the Sabres hit that point, they could be anywhere from 6 behind to tied. By the way, none of this hinges on Excel. You could pull up the schedules on all of the teams' webpages and simply line them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscrapj Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 A big aspect in which teams make the playoffs will be which teams between now and the trade deadline are willing to do what it takes to gain a spot. The Sabres are complete non-factors at the deadline. Their roster is in such a spot where dumping 5-6 guys and not adding any would improve their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscrapj Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't see the deadline being a huge factor with the teams that we are contending with. While I agree that we should be selling at the deadline, this team doesn't have the make up for a run, I'm not sure that the teams we are contending with will make a significant move either. Perhaps the Rangers will, but Sather tends to get burned and over pay for talent. Carolina is building a young team and likely wouldn't want to give up assets for a rental. The Thrashers are still in rebuild mode under Duds and I would see them doing more tinkering than going for a big fish. Although, living in Atlanta, I know they need to make the playoffs for the few of us who care about hockey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCWrunner Posted January 30, 2011 Report Share Posted January 30, 2011 Welcome. Hard to argue with 1 and 3. 2., I don't see Miller as being relaxed and focused at all. The comment about his having earned enough respect in the league to get that interference call was strange. He can't play every game here on out. 4. Fair point, but Lindy thought he had Cup-contending talent. He has to be held responsible for the first 14 games. You can't have it both ways. I agree that Ruff was wrong to think that he had Stanley Cup contending talent and I believe he was wrong to let us crap the first 13 games of our season right into the toilet. I think his misconceptions about this teams ability stem from replacing freshMyers, Lydman and Tallinder with sophMyers, Sekera and Weber. I think Lindy's done A LOT right getting us to where we are. He has given this team momentum. Will we continue to climb or will we fade? Time will tell :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCWrunner Posted January 30, 2011 Report Share Posted January 30, 2011 "Year in and 2 years out?" That pretty much describes the Sabres and the playoffs over the past 8 seasons. Ruff hasn't proved anything other then the uncanny ability not be to able to get his team ready to play hockey on many night. It's taken the Thrashers going 3-4-3 over their last ten games to instill hope in some fans. The Sabres have gone 7-3 to race up to five points out of 9th and are only two points ahead of 11th? The real excitement comes in the off-season. New owner, GM and Coach. It's time to start moving forward. In retrospect, maybe I am wrong to give Lindy Ruff any kind of "very impressive" compliment. In 12 seasons, he has made the playoffs 7 times. More accurately, he has been 'above average' for quite some time. Actually, the only truly 'impressive' accomplishment of Ruff's is that he has been here for 12 years, longer than anyone, even our national debt :), okay, just kidding. I agree with you that on 'many night's, we have looked worse than we are, specifically against the Islanders, Senators and Panthers in recent memory. The players play, and the coaches coach. More specifically, this year, the youngsters make many mistakes and most of the 'veterans' barely produce enough scoring to power a smart car. There is no denying that Ruff was a winner when he had the players (Hasek, Satan, Drury, Briere, etc.). The story is much more murky when you have guys like, uhh Niederwhatever, Connolly and Grier. I believe that Terry Pegula's fate for Ruff will have a lot to do with the next 33 games. If we make the playoffs, I say Ruff stays. If I am Terry Pegula, I'm thinking: "I've got a coach here, who has the respect of most everyone in the locker room. He pulled these smucks to the playoffs and if I replace all the dead weight veterans with some scoring, I believe that Lindy can make these guys serious Cup contenders." I know, I'm such a good Terry Pegula, being a grad student, I know everything Peguala is thinking, like what he is going to eat for dinner : Ramen Noodles. I don't know who these scorers will be, but I hope they are coming!! If we don't make the playoffs, win 13 or less of the 33 games, the story is very different and Pegula has his first real decision to make as the owner of the Buffalo Sabres. It's a toss-up and I say 40% that Ruff stays, 60% that Pegula hires a big name head coach. Who that will be, I don't know. But Pegula has money and money finds things, ask Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted January 30, 2011 Report Share Posted January 30, 2011 You know, i am just not sure. That weird schedule from Mid february to Mid March...i have no idea how it will play out. 6 game home stand followed by a 7 game road trip...thats just so weird to me. Hate to not be in playoff postion when enetering that road stretch..but guess the good thing is that 6 of 7 in Eastern time zone, and other one in Minnesota so the travel should not be tooo too hard..but damn thats a long road trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted January 30, 2011 Report Share Posted January 30, 2011 In retrospect, maybe I am wrong to give Lindy Ruff any kind of "very impressive" compliment. In 12 seasons, he has made the playoffs 7 times. More accurately, he has been 'above average' for quite some time. Actually, the only truly 'impressive' accomplishment of Ruff's is that he has been here for 12 years, longer than anyone, even our national debt :), okay, just kidding. I agree with you that on 'many night's, we have looked worse than we are, specifically against the Islanders, Senators and Panthers in recent memory. The players play, and the coaches coach. More specifically, this year, the youngsters make many mistakes and most of the 'veterans' barely produce enough scoring to power a smart car. There is no denying that Ruff was a winner when he had the players (Hasek, Satan, Drury, Briere, etc.). The story is much more murky when you have guys like, uhh Niederwhatever, Connolly and Grier. I believe that Terry Pegula's fate for Ruff will have a lot to do with the next 33 games. If we make the playoffs, I say Ruff stays. If I am Terry Pegula, I'm thinking: "I've got a coach here, who has the respect of most everyone in the locker room. He pulled these smucks to the playoffs and if I replace all the dead weight veterans with some scoring, I believe that Lindy can make these guys serious Cup contenders." I know, I'm such a good Terry Pegula, being a grad student, I know everything Peguala is thinking, like what he is going to eat for dinner : Ramen Noodles. I don't know who these scorers will be, but I hope they are coming!! If we don't make the playoffs, win 13 or less of the 33 games, the story is very different and Pegula has his first real decision to make as the owner of the Buffalo Sabres. It's a toss-up and I say 40% that Ruff stays, 60% that Pegula hires a big name head coach. Who that will be, I don't know. But Pegula has money and money finds things, ask Google. If Lindy Ruff has that much respect in the locker room it surely is not reflected on the ice. I can't give Ruff credit for making the playoffs while Hasek was in net. It didn't take a whole lot of coaching skill to write Hasek's name on the lineup card. To try credit any of the team's success to anyone other than Hasek is disrespectful to the amazing job Hasek did of carrying this franchise on his back as he did. That leaves 3 playoff appearances in eight seasons heading for 3 in 9 seasons. That has to be be considered unacceptable no matter how many excuses the Sabres have tried to use over the years. If Terry Pegula is the level of hockey fan people have talked about then he must be aware of the difficulty Ruff has of extracting an effort out of the this team. He must also be aware of the poor job this coaching staff has done of developing the young talent over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted January 31, 2011 Report Share Posted January 31, 2011 For the Sabres to finish with 93 points they need to go 19-10-4. In other words, we should have a pretty good perspective on this by Feb 15th. Anything less than 4-2-1 in the next seven pretty much buries them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnabov Posted February 11, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 Anyone wish to revisit their vote? Sabres now control whether or not they make the playoffs!!! 2 points out of 8th with 2 games in hand on Carolina. 1 point behind #9 Atlanta with 3 games in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dumb_dumb88 Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 I think they'll slip in to the 7th spot. I can see them overtaking the Rangers. I don't want the 8th spot, it would be a short lived playoff run if we end up facing Philly in round 1 in my opinion. I think we can hold our own against Washington though. Consistency in scoring and center depth remain serious concerns though for this squad. They need a trade to bring in an impact center. Just don't see it happening with the sale of the team and Regier as the GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 I think they'll slip in to the 7th spot. I can see them overtaking the Rangers. I don't want the 8th spot, it would be a short lived playoff run if we end up facing Philly in round 1 in my opinion. I think we can hold our own against Washington though. Consistency in scoring and center depth remain serious concerns though for this squad. They need a trade to bring in an impact center. Just don't see it happening with the sale of the team and Regier as the GM. It doesn't look like Washington is going to be the 2nd seed. Boston and Tampa are ahead of Washington right now. I don't want any part of Philly or Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 Looking at the numbers... The Sabres are 12-4-1 in the last 17 games. If the keep this pace, as of right now, they have a 99.8% chance of making playoffs. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 I wonder how soon before I get the bill for playoff tix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnabov Posted March 7, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hope to revive this thread at least once more when the regular season is over & Buffalo is officially in the playoffs. As for now though it is nice to have our team in 8th with plenty of games in hand to take over the 7th spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Two or less Posted March 7, 2011 Report Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hope to revive this thread at least once more when the regular season is over & Buffalo is officially in the playoffs. As for now though it is nice to have our team in 8th with plenty of games in hand to take over the 7th spot! As for the playoff run, couple things to watch for.... 1. Carolina's next game will be after a 4 day off period, let's see how they come out for the stretch run? 2. Both Carolina and Buffalo have 6 back-to-back games, will be interesting to see who over uses their starter more and what type of role will Justin Peters/Jhonas Enroth play and 3. Hate to say it, but don't discount the Maple Leafs. They are JUST AS HOT as we have been since Christmas, we play twice at Air Canada Centre still AND they only have 2 back-to-back games left all year. They should be well rested all the way til the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted March 7, 2011 Report Share Posted March 7, 2011 I hope to revive this thread at least once more when the regular season is over & Buffalo is officially in the playoffs. As for now though it is nice to have our team in 8th with plenty of games in hand to take over the 7th spot! What's the point? To show how many people predicted they will miss the playoffs? Should I revive it if they don't make it to the 3rd round as you predicted when you started this thread? :doh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted March 7, 2011 Report Share Posted March 7, 2011 Hate to say it, but don't discount the Maple Leafs. They are JUST AS HOT as we have been since Christmas If we're talking about hot teams that the Sabres need to keep an eye on, the Devils have been the hottest team in hockey since Jan 9. 20-2-2 in their last 24 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotentPowerPlay22 Posted March 7, 2011 Report Share Posted March 7, 2011 TSN's souce gives the Sabres a 17.6% chance SportsclubStats Sportsclubstats as of 3/7/2011 gives the Sabres a 70.7% chance of making the playoffs. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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