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Phoenix is on fire!


LabattBlue

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And as much as people love to complain about Golisano, thank god we didn't wind up with that Hamister/Berman group.

 

Berman went to jail, I think. On the other hand, maybe they would have hired a hockey man to run the team.

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Berman went to jail, I think. On the other hand, maybe they would have hired a hockey man to run the team.

Even if they did put a hockey man in place to run the or-gan-i-za-tion, they in all likelihood wouldn't have had the operating capital to let him follow his plan.

 

And I agree wholeheartedly w/ Shrader's sentiments on this one.

 

I would almost guarantee that the Sabres would be the team that Balsillie was targeting in that scenario. And Hammister wouldn't have had the wherewithal (among other things) to turn down the offer.

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"I'm starting to pull for the monumental collapse again. It's probably the only way this guy is gone. "

 

 

What an absolutely terrible sentiment, facetious or not, from a Sabre "fan". Would be happier saying I told you so than having the team succeed. Unfortunately, for a small segment of nerdy fans, this is what fandom has degenerated to - hoping your team fails so you can cry on message boards.

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"I'm starting to pull for the monumental collapse again. It's probably the only way this guy is gone. "

 

 

What an absolutely terrible sentiment, facetious or not, from a Sabre "fan". Would be happier saying I told you so than having the team succeed. Unfortunately, for a small segment of nerdy fans, this is what fandom has degenerated to - hoping your team fails so you can cry on message boards.

 

Firing Lindy > losing in first round. Purely logical. Are you a woman?

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Phoenix comes back from a 3-0 3rd period deficit to win 4-3 in a shootout and extend their winning streak to 7 games. I wonder how the attendance has been the 2nd half of the season and I don't mean papered tickets.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/boxscore;_ylt=Ahfu1726cwbHRWqNBjgOv_l7vLYF?gid=2010031826

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They have won 6 games in a row and are currently playing the same four southern teams that the Sabres are during the current trip. The only difference being they have already knocked three of them off and only have Florida left.

 

They weren't pretenders at the deadline as they brought in Stempniak, Morris and Wolski and are currently being rewarded. Does this mean a team can shake up their top 6 and actually end up being better? :doh:

Stempniak is obviously a great pickup and the Wolski trade was a steal I don't understand Colorado's thinking there.

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Max looks like he is thriving outside of Lindy's "SYSTEM". Which by the way is what I think is hamstringing this team.

I don't think there's any way to deny that point with any honesty. Afinogenov detractors were hoping that he'd fall off after the Kovalchuk trade so they could write off his play. But he wasn't playing on Kovalchuk's line more than about half the time and he hasn't gone way after the trade.

 

I said two years ago when Lindy started gearing up for the trap that this is what would happen to the scoring.

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I don't think there's any way to deny that point with any honesty. Afinogenov detractors were hoping that he'd fall off after the Kovalchuk trade so they could write off his play. But he wasn't playing on Kovalchuk's line more than about half the time and he hasn't gone way after the trade.

 

I said two years ago when Lindy started gearing up for the trap that this is what would happen to the scoring.

Scoring going down isn't necessarily a problem. In the first half of the season, scoring was still down for this team, but they were winning a lot. You beat a team by scoring more than the other team. That means 1-0 is just as good as 7-6. It's less exciting, but it's still a win. During their downward spiral, it has been as much about the defensive failures as it has been about the offense's. Max started very hot this season for about 24 games. His production has still been decent, but it has fallen of some. He's also been a -17 since that point. Atlanta plays a more wide open style, so not surprisingly, they've scored 18 more goals than Buffalo. However, they've given up 51 more. Max found a better system for him. That doesn't mean that they were wrong to get rid of him or that the system itself is wrong. Defensive hockey brought the cup to NJ a few times.

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Scoring going down isn't necessarily a problem. In the first half of the season, scoring was still down for this team, but they were winning a lot. You beat a team by scoring more than the other team. That means 1-0 is just as good as 7-6. It's less exciting, but it's still a win. During their downward spiral, it has been as much about the defensive failures as it has been about the offense's. Max started very hot this season for about 24 games. His production has still been decent, but it has fallen of some. He's also been a -17 since that point. Atlanta plays a more wide open style, so not surprisingly, they've scored 18 more goals than Buffalo. However, they've given up 51 more. Max found a better system for him. That doesn't mean that they were wrong to get rid of him or that the system itself is wrong. Defensive hockey brought the cup to NJ a few times.

 

1. Scoring isn't a problem? Unlike you I'll wait until the playoffs to see about that. It isn't unusual at all for trapping teams to get off to a good start in the 1st half of the season when teams are playing looser. Buffalo's 2nd half is far from impressive.

 

2. As far as the effort to discount Afinogenov with his plus/minus you might want to look toward the Sabres and the run Gaustad and Grier are on. Gaustad is a minus 14 past the last 25 games and is being abused by speed. Grier's numbers are similar. They are no less a defensive liability then Afinogenov despite playing the trap. Afinogenov is playing on a team with the 28th ranked defense.

 

3.Afinogenov's scoring has as much or more to do with the fact that he is not stuck on a 4th line in Atlanta as it has to do with their attack style. Again there is no arguing that he wasn't used right by Ruff.

 

4. You saying something about cups?

Cup winners (I went back as far as the records they have on NHL.com)

2008-2009 pittsburgh 17th in defense, 6th in offense

2007-2008 detroit 1st in defense, 3rd in offense

2006-2007 anaheim 7th in defense, 9th in offense

2005-2006 carolina 19th in defense, 3rd in offense

2003-2004 Tampa Bay 11th in defense, 3rd in offense

2002-2003 New Jersey 1st in defense, 14th in offense

2001-2002 Detroit 4th in defense, 2nd in offense

2000-2001 Colorado 4th in defense, 4th in offense

1999-2000 New Jersey 7th in defense, 2nd in offense

1998-1999 Dallas 1st in defense, 8th in offense

1997-1998 Detroit 7th in defense, 2nd in offense

 

Last 11 seasons

Average rank 7th in defense, 5th in offense

 

Last 5 seasons

Average rank 11th in defense, 5th in offense

 

No comment necessary, that speaks for itself.

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1. Scoring isn't a problem? Unlike you I'll wait until the playoffs to see about that. It isn't unusual at all for trapping teams to get off to a good start in the 1st half of the season when teams are playing looser. Buffalo's 2nd half is far from impressive.

 

2. As far as the effort to discount Afinogenov with his plus/minus you might want to look toward the Sabres and the run Gaustad and Grier are on. Gaustad is a minus 14 past the last 25 games and is being abused by speed. Grier's numbers are similar. They are no less a defensive liability then Afinogenov despite playing the trap. Afinogenov is playing on a team with the 28th ranked defense.

 

3.Afinogenov's scoring has as much or more to do with the fact that he is not stuck on a 4th line in Atlanta as it has to do with their attack style. Again there is no arguing that he wasn't used right by Ruff.

 

4. You saying something about cups?

Cup winners (I went back as far as the records they have on NHL.com)

2008-2009 pittsburgh 17th in defense, 6th in offense

2007-2008 detroit 1st in defense, 3rd in offense

2006-2007 anaheim 7th in defense, 9th in offense

2005-2006 carolina 19th in defense, 3rd in offense

2003-2004 Tampa Bay 11th in defense, 3rd in offense

2002-2003 New Jersey 1st in defense, 14th in offense

2001-2002 Detroit 4th in defense, 2nd in offense

2000-2001 Colorado 4th in defense, 4th in offense

1999-2000 New Jersey 7th in defense, 2nd in offense

1998-1999 Dallas 1st in defense, 8th in offense

1997-1998 Detroit 7th in defense, 2nd in offense

 

Last 11 seasons

Average rank 7th in defense, 5th in offense

 

Last 5 seasons

Average rank 11th in defense, 5th in offense

 

No comment necessary, that speaks for itself.

 

GREAT post. I posted those stats recently. New Jersey's defense has never carried an offensively deficient Devils team to a Cup. The year they were 14th in goals, they ended up first in that category in the playoffs. Buffalo's current template for winning the Cup (ahem) is very unlikely to work, looking at recent league history.

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GREAT post. I posted those stats recently. New Jersey's defense has never carried an offensively deficient Devils team to a Cup. The year they were 14th in goals, they ended up first in that category in the playoffs. Buffalo's current template for winning the Cup (ahem) is very unlikely to work, looking at recent league history.

 

Pittsburgh and Carolina skew the numbers a bit. What sticks out to me is that for the most part, the team that wins is pretty good at both ends of the ice. The occasional average team slips in there, but they are almost always good at both ends. So yeah, Buffalo doesn't fit that (honestly, I don't know where they rank in goals scored this year), but at least they're in the elite in terms of goals allowed this season.

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Pittsburgh and Carolina skew the numbers a bit. What sticks out to me is that for the most part, the team that wins is pretty good at both ends of the ice. The occasional average team slips in there, but they are almost always good at both ends. So yeah, Buffalo doesn't fit that (honestly, I don't know where they rank in goals scored this year), but at least they're in the elite in terms of goals allowed this season.

GF...Tied for 13th

 

GA...6th

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1. Scoring isn't a problem? Unlike you I'll wait until the playoffs to see about that. It isn't unusual at all for trapping teams to get off to a good start in the 1st half of the season when teams are playing looser. Buffalo's 2nd half is far from impressive.

You conveniently left out "necessarily". You can overcome some drop in offense with better defense. If you switch from a more high-flying offensive system to a more defensive system, the number will shift from higher GF to lower GA. It doesn't necessarily make you worse off.

 

Also of note is that the Sabres system isn't NJ's old system; they don't play a trap. They don't sit with four or five guys in the neutral zone the whole game, waiting until you make a mistake. They play (or are trying to play) a responsible system in which the forwards have to recognize when the defense pinches or needs a strong backcheck. They do go into something more akin to a trap when they have a lead, especially in the third period, but their normal "system" is not a trap.

 

4. You saying something about cups?

Cup winners (I went back as far as the records they have on NHL.com)

2008-2009 pittsburgh 17th in defense, 6th in offense

2007-2008 detroit 1st in defense, 3rd in offense

2006-2007 anaheim 7th in defense, 9th in offense

2005-2006 carolina 19th in defense, 3rd in offense

2003-2004 Tampa Bay 11th in defense, 3rd in offense

2002-2003 New Jersey 1st in defense, 14th in offense

2001-2002 Detroit 4th in defense, 2nd in offense

2000-2001 Colorado 4th in defense, 4th in offense

1999-2000 New Jersey 7th in defense, 2nd in offense

1998-1999 Dallas 1st in defense, 8th in offense

1997-1998 Detroit 7th in defense, 2nd in offense

 

Last 11 seasons

Average rank 7th in defense, 5th in offense

 

Last 5 seasons

Average rank 11th in defense, 5th in offense

 

No comment necessary, that speaks for itself.

The 11 season stat says to me that you need to be good at both, as do the year-by-year stats. Every so often, a team that is really good in one or the other, but not both during the regular season finds a way to win it, but generally you need both. Ignoring the fact that you arbitrarily threw in one pre-lockout year because it seemed to support your theory, when the year prior to that was the complete opposite, the four years since the lockout do suggest that maybe an offensive-only might, for some reason, have an edge under the new rules. I'll give you that, as long as you acknowledge that four points is a really small sample. The 11-point sample is more compelling (statistically speaking) and, again, suggests that you need to be good at everything (not surprisingly) to win the Cup.

 

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not happy or comfortable with the current Sabres. There are deficiencies and things that I would like to change, including many players. I just don't buy that if we kept guys like Max and played an offensive system that this group of players would have a better shot to win the Cup. We don't have Crosby, Malking, Ovechkin, etc. We can't play those teams in a loose fast-flowing, high scoring game and expect to win. If they want any chance, it's going to have to be by making those teams play a style that they don't want or like to play. Chances are that the Sabres will still lose, but it's the only shot that they have.

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Ignoring the fact that you arbitrarily threw in one pre-lockout year because it seemed to support your theory, when the year prior to that was the complete opposite, the four years since the lockout do suggest that maybe an offensive-only might, for some reason, have an edge under the new rules. I'll give you that, as long as you acknowledge that four points is a really small sample. The 11-point sample is more compelling (statistically speaking) and, again, suggests that you need to be good at everything (not surprisingly) to win the Cup.

 

I didn't arbitrarily throw in anything, I simply gave a 5 year grouping, the results of a 4 year grouping would have been much the same. I am the one who gave the objective account.

You on the other hand, referenced New Jersey in order to support Buffalo's approach, and then proceed to say that Buffalo's system doesn't resemble New Jersey's cup winner's. I agree BTW that the Sabres do not resemble those teams, it was you that made the false association.

 

It was my objective use of statistics vs your arbitrary false association.

On my part we don't need to ignore anything, because what I presented was factual and unbiased.

It is your false association that we need to look at sideways.

 

I just don't buy that if we kept guys like Max and played an offensive system that this group of players would have a better shot to win the Cup. We don't have Crosby, Malking, Ovechkin, etc. We can't play those teams in a loose fast-flowing, high scoring game and expect to win. If they want any chance, it's going to have to be by making those teams play a style that they don't want or like to play. Chances are that the Sabres will still lose, but it's the only shot that they have.

How you arrive at this theory of your is a mystery to me.

Where do you get this strange idea that with Afinogenov you must play in a loose defensively vulnerable system?

You phrase this in a way where you try to imply that under no condition are his skills useful because they are offset.

As I pointed out earlier, he is on a team ranked 28th in defense, yet his +/- is no worse than players like Gaustad and Grier playing under a defensive system.

 

 

Let me remind you that +/- is a 5 on 5 stat only.

Here's an example:

In his last game Afinogenov recorded 2 points on the pp and was on the ice for 1 goal against, 5 on 5.

Anyone that would watch that game and conclude on the basis of the -1 that he was a detriment isn't objective.

Ottawa scored 3 goals he was on the ice for 1.

He's logging a lot of ice time on a team with the 28th ranked defense, it's going to happen whether he's to blame on a goal or not.

Anyone who tries to portray it otherwise is being biased.

 

Anyone unbiased who actually believes what you are implying would need to view Gaustad and Grier as players who are a far larger liability given all the factors.

 

Again there is no denying that Ruff did a very poor job of using Afinogenov just as the poster I replied to said.

There is no arguing against the point he made.

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I didn't arbitrarily throw in anything, I simply gave a 5 year grouping, the results of a 4 year grouping would have been much the same. I am the one who gave the objective account.

You on the other hand, referenced New Jersey in order to support Buffalo's approach, and then proceed to say that Buffalo's system doesn't resemble New Jersey's cup winner's. I agree BTW that the Sabres do not resemble those teams, it was you that made the false association.

 

It was my objective use of statistics vs your arbitrary false association.

On my part we don't need to ignore anything, because what I presented was factual and unbiased.

It is your false association that we need to look at sideways.

When that argument had been previously made, it was said that since the lockout, the pendulum has swung further toward offensive teams. That would be a four-year sample; it would make sense. If your point was simply to pick five years for the sake of picking five, then I apologize, but it seemed odd to include right up to the year that was strongest against your point, even though it crossed that break.

 

My association with NJ was simply from a defensive teams vs. offensive team point-of-view; teams whose focus is more on keeping the opponent from scoring than on trying to score. I even said that "defensive hockey brought NJ the cup" not "a trap brought NJ the cup". A top team will be pretty good at both, as the stats imply. However, usually teams lean one way or the other. Washington and Pittsburgh are definitely offensive teams. Their GF are high, but their GA aren't great. Their GA aren't terrible, but neither is the Sabres GF. Terrible in either won't get you anywhere. Very good in both will give you a shot. Sometimes very good in one and OK in the other is enough. There have been examples both ways.

 

How you arrive at this theory of your is a mystery to me.

Where do you get this strange idea that with Afinogenov you must play in a loose defensively vulnerable system?

You phrase this in a way where you try to imply that under no condition are his skills useful because they are offset.

As I pointed out earlier, he is on a team ranked 28th in defense, yet his +/- is no worse than players like Gaustad and Grier playing under a defensive system.

Gaustad and Grier are having defensive problems, which correspond to the team breaking down defensively over this stretch, as a whole. I don't consider their recent play to be good enough defensively, just as I don't consider Max's to be.

 

I agree that Max should not have ever been on a fourth line. However, if I expect my forwards to play in a system that requires them to be aware defensively and contribute to keeping GA down (as a primary goal; no need to tell me that every team wants to keep GA down), I don't want Max on one of my top lines, either. He's fine on the PP and we could use help there right now. However, he hurts too much 5-on-5 for me to care that he's gone. On a team built around scoring (which tend to sacrifice a level of defensiveness for generating offensive chances), as they were better designed for in 2006-07, he can contribute enough to make up for his frequent, badly timed turnovers. Unfortunately, I don't feel that this group of players could achieve much with that kind of system without bringing in some higher tiered offensive talent. Until/unless that happens, a defensive system gives them a chance.

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We agree on most of this with a few exceptions.

I wouldn't say that Afinogenov could not be effective on this team.

Last season he played primarily on the 4th line up until the deadline.

Once he was moved off the 4th line, he was very effective on both ends of the ice, arguably the best forward.

So that that doesn't jive with this claim that he couldn't play in this system if he is paired up with players that suit his skills.

I won't even try to make excuses for the season he had in 2007-2008.

 

The turnover thing is highly exaggerated by fans in general.

Each season if you look at the forwards that lead the league in giveaways you'll pretty much see a list of the top forwards in the league.

The reason being is that the top forwards are play makers, and turnovers happen in the course of making plays, most of them are no different than throwing a low percentage shot at the net and losing possession. Pominville is a good example of that, he takes a load of useless shots rather than attempting to make plays, his turnover stats end up being lower, but that doesn't make those shots more effective than trying to make a play. Low skill forwards end up with less turnovers playing dump and chase. when you dump it and lose it in a battle along the boards they don't register that as a turnover, but most of those players don't produce much.

 

The last thing to add is that Buffalo is no longer a team that is equipped to overwhelm opponents with offense by choice, by their own doing.

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The turnover thing is highly exaggerated by fans in general.

Each season if you look at the forwards that lead the league in giveaways you'll pretty much see a list of the top forwards in the league.

The reason being is that the top forwards are play makers, and turnovers happen in the course of making plays, most of them are no different than throwing a low percentage shot at the net and losing possession.

I agree with this completely. My problem with Max was not with the stat line, it was with what I saw. He had a bad habit of holding the puck for too long, dangling around behind the net and then turning it over as he was come back toward the blue line. This often left our defensemen in a really bad position as they are flat-footed and the opposition has momentum toward our net. Derek Roy probably makes as many turnovers, but they tend to be when moving toward their net and often when it's 1-on-4 with his teammates behind him, so there is little danger.

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I thought this thread was going to be about Phoenix being actually pretty good for once in their team history. Not about whether lindy should be fired

 

 

Any thread PA posts in is a "Lindy should be fired" thread.

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