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Doohickie

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Everything posted by Doohickie

  1. Who hires Gallant's assistants? A lot of posts here seem to assume GMKA will bring in Gallant plus his replacement candidates as assistants. Gallant will hire his own staff, no?
  2. Or.... could they keep him under contract but sue him for damages? I really don't know. (i.e., might not be all or nothing)
  3. Yes, I wonder about that as well. Maybe we really are at herd immunity because we've had 12% detected infections, maybe another 12% undetected infections (asymptomatic or whatever), and 43% vaccinated.... that would get us to 67% which is pretty close to the requirement for herd immunity. Of course the undetected bit is a total guess. Could be 1%, could be 30%. Who knows?
  4. The 12% number is the number of cases from which people have recovered, divided by population. Included in that number are Confirmed and Probable Cases (I guess those are people who were symptomatic but not tested?) which are reported as Recovered. 1.35% of total cases resulted in death (or 1 in 74). When someone says they don't worry about catching it, to me, I wonder why someone would embrace a 1-in-74 chance of dying. By the way, if anyone wants to see what I'm looking at, here's the website: https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/public-health/disease-control---prevention/COVID-19.html The county population is 2.1 million.
  5. Our county (Tarrant, TX) publishes the numbers and the total rate of infected-recovered is just over 12% of the total population. A chunk of the restaurant workers I know who have managed to work through the pandemic have caught Covid.
  6. Yeah hetd immunity isn't the right term; we're not there yet. But numbers are decreasing in spite of low-ish vax rates, and I think that one factor is how unexpectedly effective the vaccine is. I played around with some numbers to try to understand why.
  7. That seems to be what it's coming to. People who want the vaccine have been vaccinated or are getting vaccinated. Two weeks after completing the shot(s), no more mask. People who don't want the vaccine probably don't much care about masking either. New case numbers seem to be coming down, even though we don't have enough people vaccinated to achieve herd immunity (~70%). I'm going to throw some numbers around, but bear in mind they're not exact, there just conceptual to make a point. I think we're close to herd immunity with 40-50% vax rate because the vaccines are doing much better at preventing transmission that anyone hoped. So for an unvaxxed or otherwise vulnerable person to get Covid, without vaccination they could get exposed to someone who was exposed to someone who was exposed to someone.... if one person in that chain is vaccinated, it stops there. There's still a fair amount of leaking, but only enough to allow it to smoulder, not enough to expand, and even the smouldering is decreasing. To do the math, I think they were hopeful a vaccine would be 60% effective or more, and with that we would get to herd immunity with 70% vaccination rate. So each person, the chance of transmission could be modeled as .40 (vaccine failure) x .30 (unvaxxed people) = .12 But now we have a 90+% effective vaccine, perhaps as high as 95%, so with 40% vaccination rate, the chance of transmission models as .10 (vaccine failure) x .60 (unvaxxed people) = .06 (And that doesn't even take into account people who may be protected to some extent by natural immunity from past Covid infection that they survived, which in my county is, at this point, over 12% of the population.) I think that's why the virus is winding down: Even with a lower than desired vaccination rate, the vaccine is so effective that it prevents the virus from effectively jumping from infected people to vulnerable people.
  8. Since everything I know about both I learned on Sabrespace, I am unqualified to answer the poll.
  9. I sweated for 33 miles on Saturday (me in the foreground), 35 miles on Sunday, and almost 16 miles tonight.
  10. By the time he crosses the Atlantic he may well be better than Patty Kane.
  11. Sounds like driving through Nashville.
  12. There have been a lot of threads going around and I'm not sure this deserves another one but: as a thought experiment what if the Sabres were to make one blockbuster trade in the offseason, what might it look like? So maybe Eich, Reino, Risto, maybe a salary dump (Okie/Skinner), and the first, for.... ? Is there a team out there who would trade a couple of top sixers back, along with a strong goalie prospect/#1 goalie, and....? Is there a team out there that needs to shake things up to that extent? Maybe Toronto or Edmonton (ugh) who seem to have a good team but never get deep in the playoffs? I'm thinking of players that would complement what everyone is starting to call the young core.
  13. If the decision is made to move on from Eichel and/or Reinhart, I could see including the first as a trade with one of them to get someone really, really good back.
  14. That's the thing about jerks: They don't think of themselves as jerks. They think of themselves as reasonable people who occasionally have bad moments. Thanks to a persistent mod and a member who called me out on my BS, I've gotten past denial and realized that I've been moving from reasonable person to person with increasing bad moments. I believe that my striving away from that negative aspect of my personality is what your faith calls a personal jihad.
  15. True but...for an inexperienced GM the "safe" pick is the player who has shown the most to date. The fact that GMKA verbalized this is encouraging to me.
  16. Yes. They went back to the blue and gold, back to the original logo. For that I will follow them into hell. And I have.
  17. Even if they did, the way insurance companies work is even if they pay out, they often try to recover some or all of the payout from a responsible party. If I slip and fall on an icy sidewalk, my insurance will pay for my injury but then they may try to recover cost from the sidewalk owner. In a case like this, if they pay out to cover Jack Eichel's contract but deem Jack to be a contributing cause because he had non-approved surgery, then they would try to recover some or all of the money from him (sue him). If the Sabres approve it, they could get sued too. So when you ask why would the Sabres take such a hard line, it's likely more related to this than it is to be nice to Jack or appear like good guys to the fans.
  18. Well for me I just opened it tonight. I just didn't put Donnie Meatballs in the same category but now I'm wondering.... why not? I love the guy and I was ready for him to be the coach but now I get it.... they really do need to consider other options. And pick the best one.
  19. I try to be of service. You probably do the best mouth hugs.
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