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Everything posted by pi2000
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Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways Discussion
pi2000 replied to Randall Flagg's topic in The Aud Club
Very well done Flagg. Buffalo is DFL in FOW% and blocked shots/60, 30th in takeaways/60, and 24th in hits/60. What I take from your analysis is that as long as the team is at some minimum ranking, they have just as much chance at success as any other team at the same minimum? If I'm trying to fix the Sabres and Im in the hunt for a #2 center, I'm going to look closely at FOW%. And I'm also looking at bottom 6 guys that can play physical, are skilled defensively and willing to block shots... which is a skill believe it or not. Guys like Larsson, Girgensons, Okposo, etc.. are not the bottom 6 guys I'm looking for. They were miscast early in the developmental stages of their careers as top 6 players who were relied upon for offense. They're simply not good enough at the details of defending to fill the role this team needs. They need a few more Sobtoka's IMO. -
Sam Reinhart and Brad Marchand— A basic contract comparison
pi2000 replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
True, Sam has outproduced Marchand on a worse team, however Sam plays with a more talented center than Marchand played with at that point of his career. -
Gliding was the wrong play here. He was not at top speed when he pulled up. He took his last stride at the blue line, coasted in, leaned back on his heels, two hands on his stick off the ice. At least make a desperate attempt, skate hard to the hash marks, take a penalty, dive, do something... act like you care. The fact we are even having this discussion is alarming.... trying to excuse a guy for coasting... and you wonder why the TEAM is struggling. Year after year after year with this group of players there are long stretches where the effort level comes into question. You want a culture change? Then a good start would be NOT throwing $7-8mil/yr at a player that does THAT.
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OK coach, so if the guy is faster than me and has a step, I have the to green light to just pull up and coast? What if the puck skips over Larkins stick, or he hits a rut and slows down, or doesn't see you coming so he slows down, or he slows down to put a move on the goalie cutting all the way across the crease to go backhand.... this is why you don't quit on plays. 2nd, 3rd, 4th effort make the difference between winning and losing hockey. The period wasn't over, Larkin received the pass on his forehand, cut across the front of the net to his backhand, scored, and there was still a face-off at center ice. Reinhart used the clock as an excuse to coast. You know what's hard? Pushing yourself when you're tired.
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I'm not defending the trade but there were also a lot of ifs that had to happen for it turn out this badly for Buffalo. Berglund quits hockey. Sobotka finds success in his role under RK, team having success, lands on season ending IR 16 games into the season. Thompson taking the next step in Roch showing development, 1st game in Buffalo goes on season ending IR. JBOT couldn't have known these things were going to happen, but they did, so it looks like an even worse trade at this point.
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Right, he was being dead honest. It's unavoidable if you're human and if winning is important to you. I see him as a competitor being honest with the effect the season had on his psyche. Maybe other guys on the team don't care so much about winning so losing doesn't bother them that much as long as they're putting up points and getting paid... but ROR values winning, so yeah losing takes it's toll on those guys, and if more guys on the team felt that same way maybe we wouldn't be talking about 9 straight seasons without playoffs. Now put that into perspective with Reinhart's play on the 2nd Larkin goal. Does that look like a play a guy makes who hates losing, who values winning, puts the team above self, willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win?
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I'm willing to give him another year or two. There is simply not enough depth yet. Some injuries (Olofsson, Dahlin, Ullmark, Sobotka, Okposo, Skinner, etc) and this team is just not very good. Sobotka's injury really set this team back. He was filling his role perfectly, best face-off man on the team (56% on 70 attempts), physical 2nd on the team in hits/60 at the time. They are 12-18-9 since his injury.
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Bold prediction.... Reinhart puts up 3 points, falls down 6 times, turns the puck over 7 times, is a minus with 0 hits, 0 blocked shots and 0 takeways, then all we hear about for the next week is that he deserves $10mil/yr because the team can't survive without his Eichel enhanced point production.
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Nobody is blaming Sam for the goal. We're blaming Sam for not trying to stop the goal. Big difference. From a young age you're taught to backcheck all the way to the puck... Keep your legs moving until you are at the puck, not the coattails of the player with the puck. If you're at the end of a shift and tired, at minimum you need to keep your legs moving and get to the net front as best you can to clear a rebound, check the opponent, or block an attempt. Sam stopped skating at the top of circles, pulled up, stick off the ice, turned his skates towards the corner... just an absolutely pathetic effort for somebody who is at the top of their profession. I would've told my boys to cover their eyes if they were watching. Poor example and even poorer effort. Inexcusable at that level.
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I defended RORs comments from the moment it happened and could not believe the number of folks on here who wanted him gone simply because of what he said.
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Would you be Ok with a mid/low 1st, a prospect and a bottom 6 roster player if it also included Okposo going the other way? Asking for a friend.
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Explain to me how Sheary and Vesey sucked last night. Vesey had a goal, 4 shots, 2 hits and was a +2. Sheary an assist a shot on goal and a +1 in just over 8min of ice time. Skinner 5 shots on goal. Reinhart 0 points, 0 +/-, 1 shot and 0 hits in 25min. But yeah let's point the finger at the other guys making a fraction of what Sam will demand this summer and who get half the ice time. SMH
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I'll chalk it up to fuzzy math. Winning faceoffs is better than losing faceoffs. Blocking a shot is better than not blocking a shot. Taking the puck away from the opposition is better than letting them posses the puck. Playing against a team that hits is more taxing than playing against a team that doesn't hit. Buffalo would be a better team if they had players who could fill those roles.
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This comes 1 game after his comment about players needing to "step the hell up". If I'm a teammate I want this dude gone.
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He didn't even skate, he pulled up at the top of the circles. Just inexcusable. And why is Risto trying to stick check Fabbri when Larkin is about to go backhand shelf? If you watch the replay you hear somebody yell "keep movin!!" right after the goal is scored.
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Flagg did hits, not faceoffs. The raw numbers are available at NHL.com, you know where to look. Talking about hits, 5 of the top 7 hitting teams are playoff teams ? while 0 of the bottom 4 hitting teams are playoff teams. Say it with me... CORRELATION
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ESPN Article: Sabres are the NHL's Biggest Disaster
pi2000 replied to Kruppstahl's topic in The Aud Club
Here's a novel idea, how about they hire a president, a GM and a head coach who actually have some minimum amount of experience at those positions. -
You're cherry picking hits. I've already stated, again, that there is no correlation between takeways/60min and winning, and only very slight correlation to hits/60min. Now do your same analysis for FOW% and blocks/60min.
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Most of the teams who rank in the top 5 for FOW% are playoff teams. None of the teams who rank in the bottom 5 for FOW% are playoff teams. And your conclusion is that there's no correlation between FOW% and winning? OK 4 of the 5 top teams for blocked shots/60min are playoff teams. Less than half of the bottom 5 ranked teams for blocked shots/60min are playoff teams. How is that not meaningful? Buffalo is DFL in both categories. I get that doesn't mean they should launch Rienhart into the sun because he doesn't contribute positively to either category (or hits or takeaways), but don't you think if Buffalo had at least 1 or 2 guys who could win +50% of their draws they would have a better chance to win? Or a couple guys who excel at blocking shots? Maybe a few more blocked shots saves a goal every 5-10 games or so.... you don't think that's helpful?
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Clifford is a good energy guy, he'll help the Leafs as will Campbell who should replace Hutchinson (3.66 GAA, 0.886 sv%) as Anderson's backup. Smart calculated move. Trevor Moore from Thousand Oaks, CA heads home to SoCal where he played youth hockey for the LA Selects (now Jr. Kings). Excellent hands, played +25 games with the Leafs each of the past two seasons.
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Sorry, tried to dumb it down for you best I could. If you don't get it, you don't get it.
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The top 10 teams overall by points are WSH, BOS, STL, PIT, TBL, CBJ, NYI, DAL, PHI, VAN. How many of those teams rank in the top 5 in FOW% ? 3 out 5 = 60% How many of those teams rank in the bottom 5 in FOW%? 0 out of 5 = 0% 60% of teams who are best at winning faceoffs are playoff teams, none of the teams who are worst at winning faceoffs are playoff teams. Where do the Sabres rank? DFL How many of those teams rank in the top 5 for blocks/60min? 4 out 5 = 80% How many of those teams rank in the bottom 5 for blocks/60mni? 2 out of 5 = 40% That tells me that if you want to be top team, you better be willing and able to block shots. Where do the Sabres rank? DFL
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You misunderstand. I looked at two sets of teams, top 5 and bottom 5 in each of those categories. I answered the following... How many of those top 5 and bottom 5 teams are playoff teams? How many of the top 5 and bottom 5 teams also rank in the top 10 overall points standings? The evidence shows that winning teams do better in those categories, than losing teams... except for takeways/60min where there was no correlation.