Broken Ankles

I think the concern many have regarding statistics is how many posters use them to justify or contend a position, often times without ever seeing that player or team over a period of time. Obviously the tools are more robust and should be used "in addition to", not "in replacement of" game management by Coaches and GM's. Most of which have far more experience than any of us. I personally dislike when some throw Corsi/Fenwick/HDCF% stats as an absolute or empirical truth in rating a player. Empirical data is acquired by observation or experimentation. Often times the data is anecdotal, but those that quote the stats are reticent to accept it as such. I think your observations on the scoring chances inside the high danger zones are valid, and definitely a concern on the PP. But I would argue that our shots from the point are not a problem. Our problem is deflections (or lack thereof) and rebounds. Weak players like Casey Middlestadt, Tage Thompson and Conor Sheary contribute to this. In EDM, their first two goals were from inside, but both deflections. Buffalo tries, but their not as effecitve in execution based on talent or net front presence? Their last goal was a rebound, slammed home by Leon, as was Johnny Hockey's first period goal last night. I can think of a dozen more that did not result in a goal due to luck, good saves or missed shots by the opposition. Hopefully these charts can help identify the gaps and improve our Defensive positioning, and recognizing other teams strengths when game planning. But I refuse to accept these as absolute truths when things like how a goaltender can impact this number, or how a failed clear in the D-zone by a player that should not be on the team 30 seconds before this shot/goal was made affected it. And with respect to the PP, I have watched a fair amount of Calgary games, and their passing inside is a function of size and skill. The Sabres had to have seen this in video before the game as CGY has scored like this the entire year, and yet teams still struggle agaisnt it. Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk are better suited than Skinner/Eichel or Skinner/Reinhart to execute these plays. But to your point, maybe the Sabres should try to replicate. At this point, our PP needs to try something new. Lastly to your Pilut point. Data and more importantly the eye test says he should be playing over Scandella. But we don't know what Phil has been told. I myself think the conspiracy theory that Botts wants to trade Macro has legs, so the decision was to sit Pilut over Nate so he could showcase Scandella could be valid. In saying this, I also cannot simply have my stat department tell my head coach who should be playing each night.

Great shift

Memo to Phil Housley: do not have Scandella on the ice or let Zach Bogosian pinch when the first line is out there for Calgary

Depth scoring? FL#2 - Beauvillier, Barzal, & Josh Bailey vs Rodriguez, Sobotka and TT.

This is an excellent point. Largely overlooked when you review the history of trades at the deadline. Either a prospect that becomes something, or an additional lower round draft selection in addition to the player that eventually becomes something. I'm also confused by the discussion that it's a buyers’ market. It’s always been a sellers’ market. Last year saw trades of Nash, Brassard, McDonough and JT Miller, Tatar, Kane, Stastny and Hartman all yield a first round pick plus more. Every year some GM get stupid. If we agree we are not going “all in” on a top-flight UFA rental that will cost at least a first round plus, then let’s look at the secondary rentals from last year. Michael Grabner, Ian Cole, Tomas Plekanec, Vanek, Maroon, Brandon Davidson, Frank Vatrano, Nick Holden, Petr Mrazek, Michal Kempny are all 2nd or 3rd round (or equal value). Outside of Thomas Vanek having a very strong finish to 2018, how did the others perform? Spoiler alert. Not well. Then you get down to the low-end market. These hockey trades/rentals returned a fourth round or lower. Joe Morrow, Nick Shore, Mike Reilly, Ryan Graves, Mark Letestu, Eric Fehr, Nikita Soshnikov, and Scott Wilson. Reality check time - no one is getting any immediate value trading or 4-7th round pick. These guys are 4th liners who grind or a seventh D man that serves as a just in case. Looking at this year’s UFA’s/Trade bait, and excluding those like Duchene, Steen, Simmonds, Carter, Hayes, Panarin and Nyquist as they would appear to require a First round +, who on this secondary market are you willing to part with Guehle or Pecar and a 3rd, 4th or 5th ? Ferland, Silverberg, Nemestnikov, Zuccarello, Coyle? For my money, I would rather us try to bundle a player (Scandella, Beaulieu), prospect (Guhele) and a First round pick for a younger player under our control for at least three more years that is considered bottom six but could grow into a top six. If at all. As I’m convinced that a call up from Rochester for Bailey, Olofsson, or Nylander might deliver the same results.

Or equidistant to Buffalo. It’s ok, my geography of Canada ?? is a little rusty too. And I agree with your sports take that a tie is acceptable under the current circumstances.

Don’t forget about the 2014 second round picks (+ McNabb) TM traded for Fasching. Two there. In 2015 the Guhle pick was 51. Murray traded our second (31 overall) to Colorado. This spot still had the likes of Aho, Carlo, Fischer and Greenway available. Lastly a 2016 2nd round pick for Josh Georges.

Nephew. And he is a good man.

Good points. Then what is the reason for Casey Middelstadt being measured on a different scale than Nylander? They are drafted in the same #8 position in the first round, so arguably similar skill/projected talent. They are about the same age (Nylander one draft year ahead and about 7 months older). Its not like Casey blew him away in camp. His play has been below average, and he is playing a more difficult and demanding position (Center) than Nylander could play (RW). Yet Casey is with the big club and Alex in the AHL. Why does he not get, or deserve the same protection? The only thing I keep coming back to is Alex was drafted by TM and Casey by JB.

While he is not listed as C or playing in the D zone, is Sam not the making the plays of a true C in the O-zone? He was behind the net, creating chances and scoring opportunities which is what has been missing on our 2nd line. Call him C or RW but I’m onboard him moving to his own line. I’m also keeping Tage at RW when Jack returns. Casey scored but overall did not impress. Struggled mightily on a few occasions to get the puck out of his zone. Ready for Vlad to slide to 3C and Casey to learn how to ride a bus for a few months.

Agreed. Pilut has proved his worth since his call up. A recent analysis on Sabres D-men below. My eye test says the same. For those who believe you must have a pick, player and a prospect to get something in return, Pilut may make Scandella and Guehle expendable come trade deadline. https://apple.news/AkEbDGfPKSm- I would also add that Smith has not been great but better than Elie in a much smaller sample size. So not a complete washout.

I like the move to keep Linus, but why can’t you reevaluate the other forward lines. Just because you got a much needed home win against Florida with superior play by your first line (shocking), does not excuse the poor play by other forwards. Maybe the injury to Jack is precluding any other moves until he returns. Bovada has the Bruins as -220 on the Moneyline. At home, and their injuries are not what they were when we beat them earlier in December this game has the signs of going sideways. Especially without Captain Jack. If they somehow win, it would display the mettle and growth of a team that can compete down the stretch. Fingers crossed.

Agree completely on #1. I don’t know if Sam or Skinner are either but I need to trust Jason. 2. Possible middle 6 on entry level will be Nylander, Oloffsson, Asplund, Casey (on a bridge deal -no way he gets anything close to more than two year extension) and the hopefully one of two first rounders from this year hit. And maybe a diamond in the rough like Peker. Samuelsson and Pilut on ELC for D. Although I expect a UFA to be signed in 2020 if they part with Bogo and Scandella to play top pairing minutes with Dahlin. 3. Linus is under control for 2 more? More experience and a controllable salary. unreasonable to think Hutton cannot give you this in his last year @ age 35?

It’s obvious you cannot win a Cup with players on large AAV’s. See Pittsburgh 2017 salary of Leteng, Sidney, Kessel, and Malkin. They had an average of $8.3m for their top 4. The timeline is not Jack, it’s Rasmus. I expect at least one of the first rounders this year to contribute top 6 minutes on the 2020/21 team. By then Rasmus will have established himself as a dominate force on defense. And if Rasmus gets a $12m deal for 2021 so be it. Based on an estimated $90m cap, you will have plenty of room for Skinner, Jack, Dahlin and TBD (Sam?). Bottom line, this year it’s important to take a step, not win the Cup. Concede this year to TB and Toronto. Continued progress next year. It’s just 3.5 years removed from the most egregious and reckless attempt to mortgage the future by an incompetent GM. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

I agree. He also stole $4m from the Pegula family last year. He is an opponent in the Eastern conference and took 2 points from us yesterday. He is the enemy. I wish no ill or good will. I owe nothing more than ambivalence.

I don't think I said he was. In fact I only suggested that Eberle might push down someone from FL1 to FL2. Ladd might in fact be a third liner. And if so it only strengthens my original point regarding that the middle 6 comparison. B/c Ladd at .5 PPG would be superior to any FL2 or FL3 the Sabres have at this point. Who would you rather start on FL3? Ladd/Filppula/Sang or Tage/Vlad/Pommers. Just saying its not "minor league".

Maybe from the bottom six. But keep this in mind. They are missing Eberle and Ladd from the line up posted here. Below is a comparison of lines using today's Daily face off. It completes the narrative so many have been complaining about. The Sabres line # 2 and 3 cannot compare to that of the Islanders (or most teams), and the Sabres Line #1 is usually dominates their opponents. We could argue that Eberle might bolster the first lines point, but it would also push one of the other starters down and improve their second line's even more so. Its obvious that having those elite players are vital to the success of the team, but depth cannot be underscored, so to speak. production.

It would be. But more likely he is pulled from net with an Incomplete start.

Yes, and fixed the second thought.

Why pay $8.5m to a second line RW when you have him paired with Kevin McAllister aka The Child Center? The lack of production from Pommers, Sheary, KO and Tage is that they don’t have good Centermen like Jack to dominate and control the play. Adding Mark Stone will provide instant secondary scoring. Spend 5-6M on an adult 2C and the production will follow.

Our next NHL Commisioner ?

I’m fairly confident that your attendance had nothing to do with result, but 0-16 might require a ban on you seeing your beloved. And $450 for three seats in St. Louis when they struggling surprises me. I agree we need a call up. Elie to Roch should happen by Saturday. Give the writers for the News and the fans something to talk about. I think CJ, Oloffsson and Nylander are destined for a spot sooner or later. Give one or two a shot and see if they click.

Or..

If they don’t win tonight it will be followed by the ‘airing of the grievances’.

None for me. Production has fallen fast the last three years. Plus he will be 36 in June. For me it’s Staal (33) or Kevin Hayes as 2019 UFA centers. I’m also not in favor of trading any of the first-round picks to dump salary or trade for a second line center. Look at the Ryan Kessler trade for the Anaheim ducks. They basically gave up Two first round draft picks and a prospect in Bonino for two years of Term on a cap friendly 5mill/year deal. Thank you no. I think Staal can be had for five or less on a short term deal with no risk and no loss of draft selections.