woods-racer
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Posts posted by woods-racer
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14 hours ago, Taro T said:
Except the odds of winning the 2nd lottery ARE better than 5% because if the team that won the 1st draw wins again, that result is voided and they draw again until a winner is chosen. In that 2nd draw, if Vegas won the 1st, the Sabres odds are now just about 5.05% and if the Habs won the 1st draw, the Sabres now have nearly a 6.1% chance in the 2nd draw. And by weighting that full distribution is how they get the 5.4% chance of winning the 2nd draw.
My point is that it was never 10.2% because you have 2 lottery tickets. In this specific case the parameters changed for the second lottery so the second lottery pick is variable dependent on the first, but the % chance of winning still changes very little.
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1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:
You should have seen my condition when I tried to write that out. I needed ibuprofen this morning.
I don’t hate five goal games. I love them. That is all.
I resemble that remark.
Doohikey always gives me some weird emoji when I do some non-sensible ramble. 76.3% of the time I'm one scotch past my bed time.
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2 hours ago, SDS said:
In this scenario, I think it does. There’s a finite number of outcomes split up into those groups.
Yes! People can be very fooled by statistics.
However, I don’t think this is one of those cases. I think this is essentially a mildly more involved case of rolling a die.
I wouldn't call it being fooled, just not understanding in this case.
If you get 2 shots moving up in the draft one at 5% and one at 5.2% it is very easy to assume that their odds are 10.2%. Some would assume that they are much better but maybe not a total of 10.2%.
The reality is when the first lottery is played and you lose the odds of winning the second lottery are still just 5%. Getting more chances does not increase the % chance you will win.
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14 minutes ago, tom webster said:
You realize you are opening up a while can of worms that I learned a long time ago not to broach.
@SDS turned me on to a book a few years back called A Drunkards' Walk-How Randomness Rules Our Lives.
Talks all about math-probabilities-statistics and how swayed they are or can be. Quite eye opening.
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There's almost as many billboard adds on the 190/290 around Buffalo for sports books as there is for accident attorneys. It's getting way out of control.
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3 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:
I think MAF would be a good signing for 2 years, but I would be surprised if it happens.
I imagine he wants a bonified shot at another cup as much as he wants the big payday. I bet he sacrifices some income to play on a cup contender that will give him as much as possible pay wise and still make it under that cap.
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The number of draft picks is also a large factor in all this. KA only got 5 picks in his first draft (2020). His first order of business was to remedy that (he has spoke about this at length) and the following year he had 11 draft picks.
Prior to 2021 you have to go back to 2016 to see another larger the normal ( 6 draftees ) class. Size matters, it gives the GM that many more chances of finding a diamond in the late rounds. Teams that are the best at finding those diamonds get good and stay good. Prior to 2017/18 the Sabres where still horrible at finding solid players after the first round (I am generalizing here). Hence why the cupboards still appear bare.
If Botterill and KA did/do a reasonably competent job of drafting after 2018 Rochester will really see that fruit of that next year.
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18 minutes ago, Radar said:
As is the case with many posters.
I resemble that remark.
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A bird in hand beats 2 in the bush.
Take this years pick.
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@Sabres Fan in NS Better late than never!
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I'm not sure how many know of the *Tin Can Navy*.
The Tin Can Navy roams the high seas
in search of submarine enemies.
Bouncing around on rolling waves,
we tried to send our foes to ocean graves,
while defending our liberties.
We went without the luxuries,
endured despite a few miseries,
because of challenges the crew braves
in the Tin Can Navy.
Our many nautical odysseys
to distant places provided the keys
to great adventures a young man craves.
These days, I ride nostalgic waves
across a sea of memories
from the Tin Can Navy.The are ex-sailors that served on the old destroyers. You'll find them today as volunteers on Ships such as the Sullivans. Painting, cleaning, maintaining them. Find one, they are easy to spot as they are old and working on the ship. Ask them one question. You'll be there for an hour enjoying every minute. Great people.
The last sailor I met was actually on board the Sullivans for her last tour of duty. I met him in the boiler room when I was taking the self guided tour, it's where he was stationed that day and for his time when he served. First hand account of how the ship works with great side stories of life on an old destroyer. Best history class I ever had.
Edit.
Spell correct hates Sullivans.
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This was futile.
It proves @LGR4GM right though. We drafted like crap for a decade then tanked.
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5 minutes ago, Curt said:
Except that is not ridiculous at all.
It’s not at all surprising that the Vegas PR people would brief players on how to handle questions at a press conference. That’s seems extremely normal.
What you said was that they wouldn’t have media availability at all (which I thought a ridiculous over reaction) then you said that they would only have select players available who would toe the company line (which is pretty normal to have only select players available).
They didn't have a press conference, they had a press release with selected players driving a narrative. You call that normal, even as bad as the Sabres have been they never did that. If any team should have the Sabres should have.
It's why the league and players rallied at the end of the season. We all know what they did and it's the giant white elephant sitting on the NHL right now.
Edit:
Imagine the Sabres telling the players that we never tanked and to get them to tell that narrative? That is what Vegas is doing.
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4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:
Do you really not think Harrington was taking a shot at Reinhart?
In any case, as I've posted previously, I expect Reino to struggle initially in his first playoff action, as most NHL players do, but to figure it out at some point (which may or may not be this season) and become an effective playoff player.
No.
Adding. He looked bad and the team that was predicted to win lost at home would have been taking a shot. And that statement would have also been true.
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https://sinbin.vegas/injuries-arent-an-excuse-they-were-the-plan-and-the-plan-failed/
A reporter predicated ridiculous and false things. Then the Knights did exactly what he predicted. They marched their good players out with a narrative.
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9 hours ago, matter2003 said:
For me it is Evan Rodrigues...he has blossomed into a pretty good player for the Penguins and I can't help thinking he would have really excelled under DG.
Career high 43 points and 19 goals this year, probably could have put up similar numbers here.
Did you watch E-Rod last night?
He's still the same player as when he was here. He had a blind squirrel start to the season.
35 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:While he did well to start the season, he hasn’t been very productive over the back half. He had 15 goals and 32 points in the first 46 games of the season, but only 4 goals and 11 points in the final 36 (post all star break).
I think he was no longer getting minutes with Crosby after the all star break.
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6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
I did notice he did not have a good game but wasn't going to take a shot at him (and his supporters) until the whole series went by. He could still rebound and he who laughs last and all that.
But kind of funny Harrington is still carrying that grudge.
Harrington is just passing along the stats. We can decide weather it fit's the narrative.
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2 minutes ago, Taro T said:
What do you expect to see as far as changes are concerned?
Teams currently get to hold a player's rights for 2 more years than if they were in the CHL.
How many NCAA players actually play out their full 4 years of eligibility w/out signing w/ the NHL club that drafted them? (Legit Q. It seems to only be 1-2 guys any given year, is it actually a bigger problem than that, or is even that overstating it?)
Certainly teams would like to lock up college players for even longer, but what are they going to give up to the NHLPA to get them to sign off on it?
The 4 years of holding a player's rights vs 2 years already seems like a reasonable compromise. Now that the NCAA allows players to receive compensation for their images & endorsements, might there be some "wiggle room" from the NCAA to allow players to sign w/ a team while still maintaining college eligibility? Perhaps a player could receive a signing bonus, the bulk of which gets escrowed until the player leaves school?
Don't know the answer. But it seems to be a fairly complex issue.
My initial thought is move the UFA date out another 6 months. Instead of Aug 15th of their 4th year, make it February of the following year. Unlike with all the other players in programs that get drafted college kids get a free ride. A premier college program you are treated exceptionally well. They have no financial needs or even wants. Housing, food, training facilities, tutors, transportation all first class. Why leave? Get your degree, wait 45 days past the opening of FA and see what offers come in.
The other option is don't use any high draft picks on college kids.
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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:
lol. That is absolutely nothing.
It was a 5k fine. Not nothing, especially for the playoffs.
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I would assume that there will be some changes to the way drafting college players works in the next CBA. When the last CBA was drafted a college player was not as highly prized. Times have changed and there are enough first rounders playing college that after you're done playing college losing that first rounder so easily to FA is now becoming front and center to GMs.
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14 minutes ago, SwampD said:
Nope. If they are on ESPN or ESPN2 you have to enter a TV provider and log in to watch.
BOOOOOO!
Thank you for the update.
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No games on espn+? That sucks. Going to cancel it right now. The only reason I have it was to watch hockey.
Edit
Espn+ is showing that the games are available. Really want to watch the Leafs lose.
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2 minutes ago, Taro T said:
That would be great. But TV "play-by-play" has evolved so significantly in the States (and not in a good way) in the last 10-20 years that it isn't likely one would get a fair shake at it if the TV & radio roles aren't separated.
Dan is a good tv PBP guy. But not a good BPB guy, the best are in radio.
I personally think a radio BPB guy is the best to listen to weather on radio or tv. Radio guys see the ice better than I do sitting at home and get that mental picture going in your head as you watch. RJ would call a pass before a player receiving the pass enters the picture frame. RJ got the listener portion of my brain exited before my eyes caught up.
It also seems that radio guys get player names correct more often. I'm not talking correct pronunciations, just the correct player no matter how bad they butcher his name.
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I was hoping they would find a radio guy that would make the call for both radio and tv. The Sabres would have to look at (OHL?) markets that are radio only to find experienced PBP announcers.
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What if the Sabres win the lottery?
in The Aud Club
Posted
The chances of winning the first one are 5%.
The chances of winning the second one are at best 6.1%.