mjd1001

FYI over his last 41 games (picked 41 because the math is easy, it includes all of this year and last year after he returned/got better from his injury) -21 goals, 8 of them on the PP, 4 empty net. -Over 82 games that comes to a pace of 42 goals, 16 on the PP, 8 empty net. (that leaves 26 even strength, 18 even strength not empty net). That pretty much makes him 2nd or 3rd on the team in even strength goals (depending on how you calculate it and over what term). He also leads the team in game winning goals. He may not hit, he may have games where he isn't noticable (even stretches of games), but so far this year and since his wrist got better last year, he has proven himself to be a very valuable member of this team. Leads in game winning goals. BETTER then most people think scoring even strength. AND, when this team has a stretch of bad play on the PP, everyone says they need to fix that, but the 'fix' usuall involved getting Olofsson the puck and having him put it in the net for PP goals. Olofsson if healthy, and that is a big 'IF', should be a guy you rely on for close to 30 goals, with a chance in any given year to approach 40. He also is a 'quick fix' for a broken or struggling PP. What is that worth? They have Quinn and Peterka and others in the system, but Olofsson already IS what he is, you are just hoping Quinn and Peterka can become that. The Solution likely is within 1-2 years, you are going to have to move one of them. If Quinn/Peterka do NOT turn into their potential, maybe they are moved, if they both become 30 goal scorers (or are on their way to becoming that), you have to decide between the 3, probably based on contract value/length. At the moment, I am not looking forward to moving Olofsson nor am I thinking of a team in 2-3 years from now that is better becuase he isn't here and someone else is.

For me Vegas falls into the category of things I have been more wrong about than anything else. i have said to many friends/coworkers and even on this forum, the thing about this NHL season I was MOST sure about is that Vegas and Boston would both struggle to make the playoffs this year. As of now of course they are the #1 and #2 teams in the league. Oops. I have watched a couple of Vegas games and while odds say that I was just very wrong, i still think they may be overacheiving a bit and could fall 'back to earth' so to speak. Why? They may have found 2 young goalie "diamonds in the rough", but their team save percentage is just under .940. EVEN if they get very good years goaltending from their guys, that is not likely to continue. League average/slightly above league average goaltending would have them allowing 8-9 more goals this year than they have already. That still makes them a good team, but probably a 14-15 point team, not a 20 point team. Still, I am 'looking' for something here, trying to find a reason that they will not be as good as they are,not sure if it will unfold that way. The other thing to look at for those of us who don't like Vegas or are 'hoping' they are not as good as we think is their schedule so far. They have played 3 teams so far we thought were elite coming into this year... Colorado, Calgary, and Toronto. They lost to 2 of the 3 (Toronto being the worst of that group is the one they beat.) Their wins? L.A., Chicago, Seattle, Winnipeg (twice), Anaheim, San Jose, Wash, and Ottawa. They don't hit their really really tough stretch of games until the first 3 weeks of January.

I'd be OK with this. If he really thinks he is ready to go, I'm also OK with playing him but the first game no PK time. just give him 3rd pairing minutes for a game or two. The last couple games the Sabres have had some D-men that have gotten 10 and 12-13 minutes. Lyubushkin, when he is healthy and plays the whole game, usually gets 16-20 minutes. Bring him back and commit to giving him 12 or 13 minutes for the first game, see how it goes.

91 points. That is where I am now.

You make a good point, but size is only valuable how you use it: -Tage is big but not physical at all in the 'traditional' sense. But his reach is used for production. -Ryan Reeves is often considered one fo the tougher and better fighters in the league now. He is a total of 6'2 and 225. Not even close to 'big' comared to dozens and dozens of other players in the league. Give me 2 players with the EXACT same skills, but one is 2 inches and 25 lbs heavier and I'll take the bigger one. But size for the sake of size isn't really all that useful. Boston has more than a couple players that are average (or below average) in size but I feel are much more likely to come out of the corner with a puck than guys who are much bigger. Look at big hits. No one would say Mike Peca was even close to 'big' yet he was one of the most feared hitters in the league. Lyubushkin plays physical and he certainly lays out some big league hits, yet he is listed at only 200 lbs.

I'm not there yet. Hopeful, but not there yet. I still can't get there because of their past history. About 4 years ago (give or take a year) weren't they first in the entire league around January 1? And for most of the last 3-4 years, they had similar starts. Are things different now? probably. Is Dahlin a legit superstar on the back end that they did not have before? Yes. But in those previous years, many people (including myself) tried to belelive that it was 'different' that time and it wasn't. Besides, I'll enjoy not being 100% on board yet..because each win that isn't expected is more enjoyable. Once I beleive this time 'its real', expectations are higher and each loss then hurts more.

I kinda agree with you. I mean, if people like looking at stats like this and there is some meaning to them than fine, but this is an one example of analytics that I personally thinks goes to far. Meaning, even if you do identify it, and if it IS real and not random (which I question) but what do you do to change it. Again, I dig deep into stats for fun that may not mean much to anyone else and post about them sometimes, so I am not going to say this isn't something interesting or fun to look into or maybe paints a picture that stats support, just for me personally it doesn't mean much.

100% agree. There is another variation of it too: -You have the cruise control on, you are gaining on someone in front of you. Your cruise setting is about 5mph faster than what they are doing. You approach them, change lanes, but as you are passing them, they speed up. You have to speed up more and more as they do so, finally going 10 or more MPH faster than your original speed to compete the pass. You clear them and pull back to the right lane. After ALL that, they seem to go back to their original speed and you start to pull away from then again as they fade into the distance behind you. I think 50% of the time it is just people being total jerks. But part of me wonders if the other 50% of the time, there is something in a driver's head that when they see someone pass them, it is an instinct, not a thought but just a reaction that makes them speed up? Not sure, all I know is it is annoying and can be dangerous in certian situations.

I think I bring this one up pretty often, but it keeps getting worse and worse. Gambling promotion and talk on sports radio. I get it. it is going to be there. People like talking about gambling and fantasy and SOME people (no idea who) like hearing about other peoples wins and losses on their personal bets and fantasy. Its here, but can we PLEASE cut down on it a bit? I had to run to the office this morning so I was in the car for maybe 30 minutes total: here is the sequence: -about 9:40-9:45am turned on WGR. They were talking about making a bet of what celebtrity will be shown on Thursday night football. -Stuck with it for a few minutes, but they kept on going about this -turned to 590 out of Toronto (I'm in Niagara county so I get it clearly). They USUALLY stick to sports, but not now. Talked about prop bets on football. -Back to WGR about 9:45-9:50, still talking about placing a bet on Randy Quaid. Back to 590, still on the prop bets. -Go to Satelite radio, first thing I hear there is a commercial for fan duel or some other betting site. Turn the radio off in disgust, go into the office. -Come back to the car right about 10:00-10:02, turn on WGR, figure with Sal on a new show they would start with talking about the Sabres game. Not really, first 10 minute of the show were dominated by Sal talking about a bet he made on the Sabres game. Not how good the team played, not Tage's play, Dahlin's ice time....but about how he placed a bet on the game because he thought they could come back. I think I stuck with it until 10:11 or 10:12 and when they were still talk about gambilng, I turned off the radio totally for the rest of my ride home. This is getting out of hand. There are periods of time you can listen to sports radio and have zero chance of getting way from gambling talk WHILE gambling talk totally dominates talk of the games.

Unis would have been many times better with 2 simple, small changes. A BIT more color on the Jersey (5% more blue than is there) and don't go with white pants. Those two things and they would have gone from a pretty bad look to maybe actually good.

Something else interesting: -From late november until the end of February last year. (when Olofsson got hurt) He went 30 straight games played without a goal, and was goal-less in 35 of 36 games. -Since then (March 1st) he has played 38 games and scored 21 goals. 35 games in a row without a goal, then followed up by 21 goals in 38 games (45+ goal pace)

Dahline with almost 30 minutes. Krebs at the bottom with just a tad over 10 minutes.

The thing that stood out to me about the Pens, even when they were ahead if anything happened to them, a penalty,scoring chance allowed....it was visible they were losing their cool about it very often.

To be honest, even in the lowest of times, Girgesons has pretty much always given 100%.

Broadcast said Girgensons traced skating at the fast speed anyone on either team all night. For those who don't acknowledge he is a good/very fast skater, there you go.

Outshooting the Pens, 2:36 left, up by a goal, but this doesn't have a good feel from me. hope im wrong.

I'm not overly surprised at how good Dahlin is playing now and how long it took to get there. I can't find it but I looked up a couple years ago (when some were calling for Dahlin to be traded) just how long it took some of the other elite D-mean to develop. It took Charra 6 years to be recognized as even 'very good'. Erik Karlsson was so bad in his own end that he actually was being pulled off the ice in close games until his 4th or 5th year, Victor Hedman never scored more than 5 goals or 25 point until his 5th year in the league, and he came into the NHL with almost as high pedigree as Dahlin. There have been a couple D-men here and there that hit the NHL and are very good to start with, but it is MUCH rarer for a D-man to be like that, especially one that is known for being well-rounded and great in both ends of the ice.

I dont think they are getting a new Arena and I have no idea why building it outside of the Buffalo city limits would matter/be a good thing. If you built it right in the middle of amherst it might be easier for a few people to get to the game, but not a major impact. I do agree with you that I'm surprised they are that high. They are/have been at the bottom on attendence (and I'm sure as a result of that home-game revenue) for a while now. The Arena is old(er) and not really a good revenue generator compared to other ones around the league, and the team value is probably hurt by the fact that right now Buffalo is likely close to the bottom in terms of getting a shiny/new arena or major renovation to what they have. And finally, if they aren't the smallest market, they are sure close.

Just to be clear....you talking the Eichel trade because of the pass Krebs just gave Asplund? Or the ROR/Tage trade?

I won't go into the details because I dont' know them, but I saw someone posted VO's analytics and it was brought up by many people that only shows part of the picture. The truth still remains....Cozens has made SOME mistakes, again as I cited, that Cost the sabres at least one goal and a few opportunities. VO hasn't. As far as your analytics in the offensive zone...they don't mean a thing when his 6 goals trump Cozens 2 (to this point). The analytics you site MAY have an impact on future production, but as of this moment, current production AND mistakes causing goals...VO is WAY ahead of Coznes. Truth. you may not like it, but to this point it is simply true.

Please, cite me the multiple poor plays by VO so far this year that cost the Sabres....I'll be waiting. I CAN cite you a few plays by Cozens where it cost the Sabres at least one goal and a few great scoring chances. Just because you WANT to beleive that Cozens is playing better, and he might have the POTENTIAL to be a better 2 way player....it doesn't make it true so far this year.

I disagree. Cozens is good and he can turn into a very great player. But there are games where he simply is not great all the time. Don't confuse 'full speed effort' with a good game. I posted a couple games ago that a goal allowed by the Sabres was primarily because of Cozens chasing the puck too hard instead of playing his position. Another play I brought up was a Risto-style play where he actually went to make a hit that wasn't needed and took himself out of the play leading to a great breakout. Do I think he is a bad player? No not at all, but there are certainly games where Mitts and VO are more valuable on a game by game basis than Cozens is. VO doesn't give the full speed ahead/physical style of play and at times you don't notice him. But he has 6 goals in 8 games. 2 PP goals (when the Sabres PP was struggling), 2 even strength, 2 empty net (one of which is important to seal the win) and an over time winner. MORE IMPORTANTLY, I have watched replays of just about every single goal the Sabres allowed (with the exception of one last night) and he was not out of position or even partially responsible for any of them. Basically, he isn't hurting them in his own zone. Lead the team in goals, have some game winners, drive the PP production, and dont' hurt your team in your own zone...and I'd say at this point in the season he is one of your most valuable players so far.

As per my previous post, I agree with almost everything you say. There is so much they can do pretty easily. -How about opening the doors to the Arena earlier...keeping that entire atrium open for fans to mingle at. 2 hours before the game, maybe have a band playing. Bing in the games for the kids (shooting the puck, other stuff). sell food and drink ad a REDUCED (but still profitible rate)..Maybe bring in open vendors and before the game have them sell their food there instead of standard concessions. EVERY game have an alumni or maybe even a current player make an appearance/sign autographs. Put up a big projection screen there and show your 'beyond blue and gold', 'sabres embedded' or highlights of the season so far on it. Have Marty Biron, Duff, and/or Rob Ray mingle before the pre-game show its the air. Sure, that won't make the 'in game' experience better, but give peopel MORE Of a reason to show up at the game, to show up early with something to do. Maybe some of those are bad idea, but do something like that, something bigger than what you do now.

I agree that those charts only tell so much of the story. As far as scoring, with Olofsson you have to just take he is going to be one of the streakiest scorers you have ever seen. His skillset and history point to that. As far as their gameplay, Olofsson has been invisible defensively from what I have seen, and to me for HIM that is a good thing. Mitts has been on the ice for some goals against, but when I looked at the replay of those goals, he has NOT been the one out of position, it is often been his linemates making the mistake, not him. Scoring and points are one side of the equation for sure with both of them. But in terms of effort and forechecking and D-zone positioning, both of them are a fraction of the problem that Krebs has been all year, and to a lesser extent Cozens (due to being overly agressive), Peterka (losing battles on the boards) and even KO and Tuch (out of position) have been.