tom webster

A few points; 1) If the analytics staff is only working with the numbers everyone has access to, you have huge problems. 2) As with any business organization, the head of said organization takes input from all departments and weighs their recommendations against what’s best for an organization. Just because it might not make sense to us, it doesn’t mean they are ignoring the analytics staff. 3) If there was one formula to building a team, you wouldn’t need any staff, just a premium subscription to evolving hockey.

Except that the cap will be close to $95M/$100M in 2-3 years. The time to grab someone, if you want to, is now before everybody has space again.

You are right, goaltenders are unpredictable but you also cannot wait for UPL to rediscover the magic he found once in the last several years. As I’ve said repeatedly, other than WNY, he has not been considered a top prospect. He had one great year in junior hockey but has been less than mediocre ever since.

I hear you. I’ve tried podcasts, some by friends, and I find them unlistenable. They spend ten minutes telling you what they are going to talk about and it goes down from there…..

TV and RADIO and have been on the cutting edge of analytics since the 50’s. They broadcast what their target demographics want, it’s that simple.

Because I found that there is a 51.2 % chance I will sound smarter then I am if I do.

I didn’t say it’s likely, I just think it’s premature to write them off. Obviously if you use their first 25 games to predict their next 47 games the numbers say no way but the whole point is I believe a talented young team can suddenly “find” themselves and maybe the GM changes his timeline and decides to help them. Thus next part is not directed at you or anyone specific but something I’ve wanted to say for awhile. I am a numbers nerd. Planned on being an actuary. I am fascinated by the explosion of analytics not just in sports but in life in general. However, I find it somewhat amusing that in a country where Burger King’s 1/3 burger failed largely because people thought 1/3 was smaller than 1/4, in a business where I presently spend too much time explaining to customers that our new 1/4 option is smaller than our standard 1/2 option, suddenly everyone is a probabilities expert. I swear, cashiers can’t make change if they type in the wrong amount tendered but they can explain why player X is better then player y and provide all sorts of graphs and numbers to back their opinion up. That’s it. Been up since 4:30, on my second pot of coffee and just needed to rant. Carry on.

I understand it isn’t likely but if they beat Columbus and sweep Pittsburgh in regulation they will be three points behind Pittsburgh with same number of games played. I don’t know how you can declare them out at this point of the season.

Yep.

Time will tell.

So far two expansion teams under the current system, two early successes although Seattle may be a mirage, time will tell. As far as what the Pegulas done, no one can argue things didn’t work out but it’s not like any of their hires, other then letting Patty bring Nolan along, were considered crazy at the time. Largely their impatience did them in but I really would rather focus on the future rather than rehash the past.

Seattle didn’t take advantage of a lot of the deals that Vegas did but did load up on a lot of second and third line players resulting in their older roster and a more defensively sound line up which has allowed them to withstand their horrible goaltending. Jones and Grubauer are both below .900 save percentage. Other than Burakowski, most of their acquisitions are underwhelming. They hit a homerun getting Beniers and may have lucked out getting Wright although early returns aren’t great. I’ll take Buffalo’s potential over the next few years over the Kraken.

Almost any franchise would have had the same success if given the chance to start over again. It’s far easier picking from a pool of veterans over junior players while still being allowed to pick junior players and start with $30-$40 million in cap space. Time will tell if they can sustain it. I find it pretty funny that Vegas’ owner gets props for his lack of patience and meddling. They started well this year but their reputation amongst players, which I’ve been told is vitally important, is showing stress cracks.

They are older and more expensive. As I said, Buffalo is and should be a little behind them. Beniers looks like he’s going to be great but I’m still glad Buffalo took Powers and I’ll put Tage and Dylan up against any young pair if centers in the league. The future is bright as long as you look at it as year 2 and not year 12.

Seattle should be ahead for the same reasons Vegas had such early success. In fact, the Kraken should be even better except for some head scratching decisions in the expansion draft.

I missed this earlier, Kyle was not overpaid. He was the top free agent of his class and wanted to be here. I said I was done with this dialogue but this is just flat out wrong.

One thing we know for sure; 1) he tried to get Murray One thing has been reported by reputable sources; 1) John Gibson was asked to waive his NMC for both Toronto and Buffalo One thing I’m fairly confident of; 1) He thought he had Ullmark and misread the situation. Its on him to get something done but to say he isn’t trying is flat out incorrect

It’s is completely different for you to say that it is not a preferred destination versus saying that every player presently on the roster would rather be somewhere else. As far as free agents, I hope they never put themselves in a position to need to go that route again. Finally, if you think the only possible way someone could have an opinion different than yours is to be ignorant or naive, I see no reason to continue any dialogue with you at all. Good day and enjoy the coming attractions.

I’m not sure what you are asking.

Yeah, I wouldn’t include Tuch but I understand what you are saying. I’m sure someone will point out exceptions but high draft picks rarely fulfill their expectations with a second or third team. What sometimes happens is they reimagine themselves and find useful roles with their new team. I would never say impossible with Casey, but color me skeptical.

How does Tuch compare to Lazar/Jost?

It was me who said it and it’s based on actual numbers and aided by the fact he was top 15 in the voting for the award last year. It’s not all about offensive output or grit. Asplund will be a part of this team or some other contender long after Mitts is in the NHL. VO has a skill that will always be useful and tradeable, Casey‘s career is a function of his draft pedigree.

Another of my dead horse rants, UPL was never considered a top prospect by most people outside of WNY. Yes, I know he had that one dominant year in junior before the hip injuries( someone always points that out) but he was always on the fringe and is an example of my biggest problem with KA. Saying you didn’t want to give Ullmark four years because you didn’t want to block a prospect is saying you are one hundred percent sure that said prospect will pan out and that’s malarkey. Even top prospects flop, especially goaltenders.

It is amazing to me that people that gamble a lot don’t understand that the “house” makes money when bets are spread evenly on both sides. While there are instances where the money is lopsided, generally then”house” couldn’t care less what the outcome is.

Your exact words were, “I guarantee you, that other than Tuch and Skinner, there isn’t a single player”…. I agree, that guys that get ten team NMC, and that’s a very small percentage of player, probably list Buffalo but there are a lot of reasons for that.