Doan > Peterka?

[Archie Lee]

I hope as a fan that I never get to the point where I’m so enamoured by a GM’s work that I would defend their every move, even when they make an obvious mistake on a player transaction. I hope the opposite is also true.

I think we fans are generally too quick to want to declare winners and losers in trades. Given the ages of these players, there is a long way to go on judging this one. 

I was not thrilled with the trade at the time, mostly because I thought, and still think, Adams backed himself into a corner and was reacting to a negative situation of his own creation, rather than proactively making a trade to make the team better. I would not reverse the trade today though. Right now, as with the McLeod and Byram deals, I am pleased with the trade on the micro-level, but it has not proven to be very impactful on the macro-level. 

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

In fairness though, Doan is looking more like a bottom 6 guy lately as well. He's fine, but also not that great. 

Still remains to be seen if we won the trade or lost it (and it might actually be even) and we won't know at all until we see more from Kesselring. 

Well, I am not a "won the trade" guy.   

Doan is fine, he is being pushed by getting 1st line and PP minutes.   Doan looks more of a middle 6, than bottom 6 to me.  

Kesselring was the big piece of that trade. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

In fairness though, Doan is looking more like a bottom 6 guy lately as well. He's fine, but also not that great. 

Still remains to be seen if we won the trade or lost it (and it might actually be even) and we won't know at all until we see more from Kesselring. 

See this, this is why I pushed back so hard against your "eye test tells me everything" schtick in the other thread. 

[Trettioåtta]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

See this, this is why I pushed back so hard against your "eye test tells me everything" schtick in the other thread. 

No, he's right. Doan is on track for nearly 60 points. Thats low end 3rd line, more like upper 4th line, stats on a playoff bubble team.

[shrader]

7 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

No, he's right. Doan is on track for nearly 60 points. Thats low end 3rd line, more like upper 4th line, stats on a playoff bubble team.

60 points from a 4th line guy? Sign me up right now. What’s the top line getting, 200?

[kas23]

47 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

No, he's right. Doan is on track for nearly 60 points. Thats low end 3rd line, more like upper 4th line, stats on a playoff bubble team.

I just picked Colorado randomly. They have a 3rd line of Goaloffson, Drury, and Nichushkin. None of them have eclipsed 60 points in their careers. Carolina: Carrier, Staal, Martinook. None of them have ever reached 60 points. 
 

Edit: add Tampa Bay. Girg and Homberg. Speaks for themselves. Hannibal Gourde did have one great year of 64 points in 2017. All other years he’s around 30-40 points. 

Edited 8 hours ago by kas23

[Trettioåtta]

47 minutes ago, shrader said:

60 points from a 4th line guy? Sign me up right now. What’s the top line getting, 200?

 

9 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I just picked Colorado randomly. They have a 3rd line of Goaloffson, Drury, and Nichushkin. None of them have eclipsed 60 points in their careers. Carolina: Carrier, Staal, Martinook. None of them have ever reached 60 points. 
 

Edit: add Tampa Bay. Girg and Homberg. Speaks for themselves. Hannibal Gourde did have one great year of 64 points in 2017. All other years he’s around 30-40 points. 

/s

60 points is first line numbers (76 forwards reached that bench mark last year). 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Trettioåtta said:

No, he's right. Doan is on track for nearly 60 points. Thats low end 3rd line, more like upper 4th line, stats on a playoff bubble team.

lol, well played

[Jorcus]

8 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I hope as a fan that I never get to the point where I’m so enamoured by a GM’s work that I would defend their every move, even when they make an obvious mistake on a player transaction. I hope the opposite is also true.

I think we fans are generally too quick to want to declare winners and losers in trades. Given the ages of these players, there is a long way to go on judging this one. 

I was not thrilled with the trade at the time, mostly because I thought, and still think, Adams backed himself into a corner and was reacting to a negative situation of his own creation, rather than proactively making a trade to make the team better. I would not reverse the trade today though. Right now, as with the McLeod and Byram deals, I am pleased with the trade on the micro-level, but it has not proven to be very impactful on the macro-level. 

It's funny though as much as Adams may have made lemonade out of a lemon situation there still seems to be a perception that that if you trade with the Sabres you are going to get the better player. I was watching Ottawa play Montreal last night and the announcers were talking about Cousins and how players improve when the leave the Sabres. Just as they were saying that Cousins got blasted off his skates by a Canadian. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, Trettioåtta said:

No, he's right. Doan is on track for nearly 60 points. Thats low end 3rd line, more like upper 4th line, stats on a playoff bubble team.

No it’s not.  60 pts last year made you tied for 74th in forward scoring.  That’s first line level scoring.   Florida’s 2nd line had from 45-53 pts last season.  

[kas23]

15 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

It's funny though as much as Adams may have made lemonade out of a lemon situation there still seems to be a perception that that if you trade with the Sabres you are going to get the better player. I was watching Ottawa play Montreal last night and the announcers were talking about Cousins and how players improve when the leave the Sabres. Just as they were saying that Cousins got blasted off his skates by a Canadian. 

Clearly Norris is heads and shoulders above Cozens. The only wrinkle here is the injury risk. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Jorcus said:

It's funny though as much as Adams may have made lemonade out of a lemon situation there still seems to be a perception that that if you trade with the Sabres you are going to get the better player. I was watching Ottawa play Montreal last night and the announcers were talking about Cousins and how players improve when the leave the Sabres. Just as they were saying that Cousins got blasted off his skates by a Canadian. 

Ottawa has a "Cousins" but that is Nick Cousins.  When you say "Cousins" and Ottawa, I assume you are referring to Dylan Cozens (with a Z)?

There is some strange media perception about Cozens that they like him a lot more than how good he is.

He hasn't really gotten better. He has a couple more PP goals, that is about it, but his defensive numbers/awareness are as bad as ever.

He's been there for 53 total games now (including playoffs) and has 14 goals, 20 assists and is a -16. 

Thats an 82 game pace of 21.6 goals, 30.9 assists, and -24.7.

His last 2 years in Buffalo (we wont' even count his 'good' year) he played 140 games, had 29 goals and 49 assists and was a -17.

Thats an 82 game pace of 17 goals, 28.7 assists, and -9.9.

Not all that much different. A smidge more offensive productions, but his +/- is more than a 'smidge' worse.  And keep in mind, this is supposedly on a 'better' team where he is dead last in =/-.

Not to mention his analytics.  Similar to Buffalo, when he moves aound in Ottawa, the guys that are put with him usually have worse analtyics with him, and they get better when they are taken away from Cozens. 

In Ottawa even strength, when he is on the ice the opposition scores a goal every 17 minutes. When he was in Buffalo it was a bit better at 17.5 minutes..and supposedly he has a 'better' team and better goaltending behind him now.  If he got better once he left Buffalo, why is this bad number (along with many others) actually worse with Ottawa?

Deep dive into his analytics, and in Ottawa his Goals for vs against percentage is VERY negative (worse than it was in Buffalo), and expected goals are negative, and his corsi, fenwick, and shots for/vs/against percentage are all lower than he was in Buffalo.

He is, basically the EXACT same player he was in Buffalo.  I'd argue every so slightly worse and he is dragging his linemates down more than he even did hear and is on the ice for more goals against.

Edited 1 hour ago by mjd1001

[Jorcus]

58 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Ottawa has a "Cousins" but that is Nick Cousins.  When you say "Cousins" and Ottawa, I assume you are referring to Dylan Cozens (with a Z)?

There is some strange media perception about Cozens that they like him a lot more than how good he is.

He hasn't really gotten better. He has a couple more PP goals, that is about it, but his defensive numbers/awareness are as bad as ever.

He's been there for 53 total games now (including playoffs) and has 14 goals, 20 assists and is a -16. 

Thats an 82 game pace of 21.6 goals, 30.9 assists, and -24.7.

His last 2 years in Buffalo (we wont' even count his 'good' year) he played 140 games, had 29 goals and 49 assists and was a -17.

Thats an 82 game pace of 17 goals, 28.7 assists, and -9.9.

Not all that much different. A smidge more offensive productions, but his +/- is more than a 'smidge' worse.  And keep in mind, this is supposedly on a 'better' team where he is dead last in =/-.

Not to mention his analytics.  Similar to Buffalo, when he moves aound in Ottawa, the guys that are put with him usually have worse analtyics with him, and they get better when they are taken away from Cozens. 

In Ottawa even strength, when he is on the ice the opposition scores a goal every 17 minutes. When he was in Buffalo it was a bit better at 17.5 minutes..and supposedly he has a 'better' team and better goaltending behind him now.  If he got better once he left Buffalo, why is this bad number (along with many others) actually worse with Ottawa?

Deep dive into his analytics, and in Ottawa his Goals for vs against percentage is VERY negative (worse than it was in Buffalo), and expected goals are negative, and his corsi, fenwick, and shots for/vs/against percentage are all lower than he was in Buffalo. 

He is, basically the EXACT same player he was in Buffalo.  I'd argue every so slightly worse and he is dragging his linemates down more than he even did hear and is on the ice for more goals against.

 

Yes I ment to say Cozens. I do feel that he is the same player that left here. He is scoring a bit more this year. The only thing I would point out is Ottawa's goaltending is worse than ours is this year and it's costing them a lot of money. 

[mjd1001]

10 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

 

Yes I ment to say Cozens. I do feel that he is the same player that left here. He is scoring a bit more this year. The only thing I would point out is Ottawa's goaltending is worse than ours is this year and it's costing them a lot of money. 

A goal is a goal is a goal, they all count and they are all important.  But one thing that is different is he is scoring pretty well on the PP for them, but not so much even strength.

Dylan Cozens has 7 PP goals in 47 regular season games for Ottawa. He had a total of 12 for Buffalo in 341 regular season games.  In Ottawa a PP goal every 6.7 games, in Buffalo a PP goal every 28.4 games (and remember, he spent most of his career in Buffalo on the 1st PP unit and I think in his time here only Tage had more PP time as a forward than Cozens did)

On the other hand, even Ottawa fans are coming to the realization his has little 'hockey sense' and is a liability on the ice even strength.  And he has gone 20 straight games without an even strength or shorthanded goal. Its PP or bust for him right now.

We view the trade as Doan/Kesserling for Peterka, and Norris for Cozens.  That makes sense because that is who they were traded for, and Doan is a winger like JJP and Norris is a C like Coznes.  But in terms of quality of play, how they slot into roles besides their position...its more like Norris is taking the 'role' that JJP had, and Doan is taking what we wanted from Cozens (some toughness, leadership, net front presense, 2 way game, etc.)

I'm confident from that point of view Dylan Cozens has a bit more 'raw talent' than Doan, but we are getting out of Doan a LOT more of the stuff we wanted from Cozens but never really got.

Edited 43 minutes ago by mjd1001

[Jorcus]

2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

A goal is a goal is a goal, they all count and they are all important.  But one thing that is different is he is scoring pretty well on the PP for them, but not so much even strength.

Dylan Cozens has 7 PP goals in 47 regular season games for Ottawa. He had a total of 12 for Buffalo in 341 regular season games.  In Ottawa a PP goal every 6.7 games, in Buffalo a PP goal every 28.4 games (and remember, he spent most of his career in Buffalo on the 1st PP unit and I think in his time here only Tage had more PP time as a forward than Cozens did)

On the other hand, even Ottawa fans are coming to the realization his has little 'hockey sense' and is a liability on the ice even strength.  And he has gone 20 straight games without an even strength or shorthanded goal. Its PP or bust for him right now.

Well that may change. With the return of Brady Tkachuck he is bumped to PP2. If you watch highlight videos of Cozens most of his goals come from skating with speed toward the net. He can score from distance but its the open rush shot where he puts them in. He is not very good at net front scrum hockey. He is willing, just not effective.