Sabres Playoff Chart

[WNY Sabres]

Can someone update this chart to include season ending 2024-25 numbers?

[inkman]

Here is the chart of Sabres playoffs:

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

👀

[JohnnyK]

How many years does that chart go back, I forget!!!!

 

This is the year!!!

 

Go Sabres!!!

[mjd1001]

I post I usually make every year....updated from this January (last time I posted it)

A simplified version:

The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple.  32 teams in the league, 14 times the cup is awarded. VERY Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period.  1 in 2.28.   Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%.   Or 1 in about 22,000.  Odds of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,000.

Slightly more detail:

A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different.

Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year.  For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on.

Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now.

So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once?  0.018% chance.  Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time.  If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row.

Chances of missing 14 years in a row?  1 in about 22,100.  Or 0.0045%   If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet.

Chances of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,250, Or 0.00225%.  Odds on a $100 bet that would happen for any given team, probably pay out about $4 million on a $100 bet.

So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it.  If anything, you could say 'tanking' would make it hard to miss that many years in a row, as while tanking would assure you would miss the first couple of years, the 'elite talent' you get from tanking makes it even harder to miss in the 'middle' years.

Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so.  That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.

Edited July 20 by mjd1001

[Pimlach]

On 7/20/2025 at 2:22 PM, inkman said:

Here is the chart of Sabres playoffs:

 

To be fair, label this the "Pegula Era Playoff Performance Chart" 

[Pimlach]

On 7/20/2025 at 6:31 PM, mjd1001 said:

I post I usually make every year....updated from this January (last time I posted it)

A simplified version:

The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple.  32 teams in the league, 14 times the cup is awarded. VERY Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period.  1 in 2.28.   Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%.   Or 1 in about 22,000.  Odds of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,000.

Slightly more detail:

A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different.

Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year.  For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on.

Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now.

So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once?  0.018% chance.  Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time.  If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row.

Chances of missing 14 years in a row?  1 in about 22,100.  Or 0.0045%   If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet.

Chances of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,250, Or 0.00225%.  Odds on a $100 bet that would happen for any given team, probably pay out about $4 million on a $100 bet.

So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it.  If anything, you could say 'tanking' would make it hard to miss that many years in a row, as while tanking would assure you would miss the first couple of years, the 'elite talent' you get from tanking makes it even harder to miss in the 'middle' years.

Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so.  That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.

Funny you mention this.  I was talking to a friend in Seattle just yesterday and he mentioned the odds of the Sabres missing playoffs for 14 years is insanely small and he laughed at the ineptness of it all.   

 

[BearWithME]

On 7/20/2025 at 6:31 PM, mjd1001 said:

I post I usually make every year....updated from this January (last time I posted it)

A simplified version:

The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple.  32 teams in the league, 14 times the cup is awarded. VERY Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period.  1 in 2.28.   Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%.   Or 1 in about 22,000.  Odds of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,000.

Slightly more detail:

A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different.

Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year.  For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on.

Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now.

So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once?  0.018% chance.  Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time.  If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row.

Chances of missing 14 years in a row?  1 in about 22,100.  Or 0.0045%   If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet.

Chances of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,250, Or 0.00225%.  Odds on a $100 bet that would happen for any given team, probably pay out about $4 million on a $100 bet.

So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it.  If anything, you could say 'tanking' would make it hard to miss that many years in a row, as while tanking would assure you would miss the first couple of years, the 'elite talent' you get from tanking makes it even harder to miss in the 'middle' years.

Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so.  That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.

This is a great write up.

The Bills drought felt way more hopeless than comical... especially because there were only 6 teams per conference allowed in for the entirety of their dry spell. At no point during the drought--aside from the very beginning when Bledsoe was at QB and they came up a game short vs the Steelers--did it feel as if they were better than 10 other teams in the conference.

In the NHL though, half the teams make the tournament. Simple odds would seem to dictate that at some point over a decade and a half, you're going to be hanging around the middle of the bell curve long enough to catch a break and land the 8 seed. It's actually quite a remarkable statistical feat... to the point that it makes me wonder if we're "in for a penny in for a pound." As I've said in other posts--if this is a tear it down to the studs and then build it back up rebuild, then might as well see it through.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, BearWithME said:

This is a great write up.

The Bills drought felt way more hopeless than comical... especially because there were only 6 teams per conference allowed in for the entirety of their dry spell. At no point during the drought--aside from the very beginning when Bledsoe was at QB and they came up a game short vs the Steelers--did it feel as if they were better than 10 other teams in the conference.

In the NHL though, half the teams make the tournament. Simple odds would seem to dictate that at some point over a decade and a half, you're going to be hanging around the middle of the bell curve long enough to catch a break and land the 8 seed. It's actually quite a remarkable statistical feat... to the point that it makes me wonder if we're "in for a penny in for a pound." As I've said in other posts--if this is a tear it down to the studs and then build it back up rebuild, then might as well see it through.

In other words, you have to try to be this bad.  

[JP51]

Here is the chart... 

[SwampD]

On 7/24/2025 at 6:25 AM, BearWithME said:

This is a great write up.

The Bills drought felt way more hopeless than comical... especially because there were only 6 teams per conference allowed in for the entirety of their dry spell. At no point during the drought--aside from the very beginning when Bledsoe was at QB and they came up a game short vs the Steelers--did it feel as if they were better than 10 other teams in the conference.

In the NHL though, half the teams make the tournament. Simple odds would seem to dictate that at some point over a decade and a half, you're going to be hanging around the middle of the bell curve long enough to catch a break and land the 8 seed. It's actually quite a remarkable statistical feat... to the point that it makes me wonder if we're "in for a penny in for a pound." As I've said in other posts--if this is a tear it down to the studs and then build it back up rebuild, then might as well see it through.

Maybe TP put a bet down on a 15 year playoff drought.

It would explain a lot.

[lothar]

On 7/24/2025 at 3:25 AM, BearWithME said:

This is a great write up.

The Bills drought felt way more hopeless than comical... especially because there were only 6 teams per conference allowed in for the entirety of their dry spell. At no point during the drought--aside from the very beginning when Bledsoe was at QB and they came up a game short vs the Steelers--did it feel as if they were better than 10 other teams in the conference.

In the NHL though, half the teams make the tournament. Simple odds would seem to dictate that at some point over a decade and a half, you're going to be hanging around the middle of the bell curve long enough to catch a break and land the 8 seed. It's actually quite a remarkable statistical feat... to the point that it makes me wonder if we're "in for a penny in for a pound." As I've said in other posts--if this is a tear it down to the studs and then build it back up rebuild, then might as well see it through.

A great QB and good coach can make up for a below average team in the NFL - enough to carry 53 players to a playoff berth. The NHL playoff odds are better but I think a great goalie and good coach should be enough to drag a below-average team to the playoffs. It's been a while (the last time we made the playoffs) since we had such competent goaltending.

[Indabuff]

This will be my 12 year old daughter...

 

[ska-T Palmtown]

This is nothing new ... but it is beyond pathetic

The average number of playoff appearances since 2000 (not counting the Covid year) is 12 (note there were no playoffs in 2005). A standard deviation is 4.2 - which means anything between 8 and 16 is still kinda (?) "normal". Vegas and Seattle are excused. So, on the low end only Buffalo, Phoenix/Utah, and Columbus are outside of a reasonable variation. At the high end, Sharks (?!), Broons, Pens, and Caps are more than a standard deviation above the average.

The median is 14.

Bold italic numbers are active streaks.

* means if you include the Covid year, the streaks gets one longer

+ means if you include the Covid year, the streak reduces to 5 (or 6 for the 'Nucks). 

If you discount Vaygus and Seattle, the average worst streak length per team is 6 years.

Discounting the two covid years, roughly 1/3 of the teams that missed the playoffs one year make it the next. This is where that stats show it is not just "odds". By the 1/3 rule, the average streak would be roughly 3 years. Which means there are a significant number of teams who drop out of the playoffs for less than 3 years, then pop back in. And, to go with that - a bunch of teams that cannot get back in within 3 years. This peaked in 2015 and 2017 when half of the teams that missed the playoffs the previous season made it in the next year. It should also be noted that the last four years, just below 70% of teams have made the playoffs in any given 3 year period - the lowest in the 2000's, but with one more team not making it - this checks out.

Diving further ... since 2000 - an average of 77% of the league makes the playoffs within any given 3 year period.

Since 2000, every team has made the playoffs three years in a row except ... Buffalo 😞 (Seattle, too - but c'mon)

Edit: Dive Deeper? OK ... Since 2000 - an average of 84% of the league makes the playoffs in any given 4 year period. This was greater than 90% in 2010, 2015, 2019, and 2021 ... Sabres, Oilers, and Phoen-tah miss in 3 out 4 of those years. 

A word about straight "odds" - over a three years stretch, based solely on 1/2 the league making it (was actually more than that most of the 2000's), it should be 87.5% of teams making it. The real data is 77% (which means about 61% chance of missing each year). Similarly, for 4 years it should be 93.8%, real data is 84% - which oddly enough equates to a 63% chance of missing the playoffs. The 4 teams who managed to miss the playoffs for a staggering 10 or more years in a row obviously skew the data away from the statistical norms. 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by ska-T Palmtown