Sabres Playoff Chart

[WNY Sabres]

Can someone update this chart to include season ending 2024-25 numbers?

[inkman]

Here is the chart of Sabres playoffs:

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

👀

[JohnnyK]

How many years does that chart go back, I forget!!!!

 

This is the year!!!

 

Go Sabres!!!

[mjd1001]

I post I usually make every year....updated from this January (last time I posted it)

A simplified version:

The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple.  32 teams in the league, 14 times the cup is awarded. VERY Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period.  1 in 2.28.   Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%.   Or 1 in about 22,000.  Odds of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,000.

Slightly more detail:

A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different.

Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year.  For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on.

Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now.

So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once?  0.018% chance.  Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time.  If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row.

Chances of missing 14 years in a row?  1 in about 22,100.  Or 0.0045%   If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet.

Chances of missing 15 years in a row?  About 1 in 44,250, Or 0.00225%.  Odds on a $100 bet that would happen for any given team, probably pay out about $4 million on a $100 bet.

So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it.  If anything, you could say 'tanking' would make it hard to miss that many years in a row, as while tanking would assure you would miss the first couple of years, the 'elite talent' you get from tanking makes it even harder to miss in the 'middle' years.

Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so.  That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.

Edited 5 minutes ago by mjd1001