UPL's next contract

[PerreaultForever]

I think a Georgiev deal is the right number compared to those but I expect it'll be more and perhaps longer so 

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

4 x 5 seems fine to me I dunno 

probably. An overpay, but probably. 

[Porous Five Hole]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

7 goalies make $6M or more. 17 make 5 $5M or more.

Here’s a look at your recent 3rd contract RFA comparables.

UPL: (2024)

5 years pro, 100 NHL games, 1 season of good numbers as a starter

Matt Murray (2020) 4X6.25M

6 years pro, 199 NHL games, 4 seasons of good numbers as a starter, Stanley Cup

Cal Petersen (2021) 3x$5M (signed extension a year before he would have become a UFA)

4 years pro, 54 NHL games, good numbers but no season as a full-time starter

Thatcher Demko (2021) 5x$5M

5 years pro, 72 NHL games, good numbers, 1 abbreviated season as an NHL starter

Ville Husso (2022) 3x4.75

6 years pro, 57 NHL games with good numbers, 1 abbreviated season as an NHL starter

Filip Gustafson (2023) 3x3.75

5 years pro, 66 NHL games, 1 season with good numbers as an NHL starter

Alexander Georgiev (2022) 3x3.4M

5 years pro, 129 NHL games with good numbers, none of them as a starter

Vitek Vanecek (2022) 3x3.4M

6 years pro, 79 NHL games, 1 year with good numbers as a starter

Stuart Skinner (2023) 3x2.6M (signed mid-way through 1st season as a starter)

5 years pro, 30ish NHL games, 1/2 year of good numbers as a starter

 

You gotta think UPL is looking for a Demko deal, the Sabres a Gustafson.

I think the move here is to have UPL elect for salary arbitration. He will get a significant raise, the Sabres can afford it, and back to RFA with proof in the pudding that he’s a .910 goalie (or not).  

Edited May 9 by Porous Five Hole

[Pimlach]

19 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I'd much prefer a 3-year deal, but if this is what's needed to get it done, I think they have to do it.

They cannot afford to let another goalie get away.   

[Porous Five Hole]

39 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

They cannot afford to let another goalie get away.   

That’s why arbitration makes sense. Still an RFA after next year and you will better know what you really have.

The long term answer is Levi anyway. Devon already has nothing left to prove in the AHL (.927 save percentage in his 26 games here this year—and even better so far in the playoffs). 
 

For this UPL negotiation, you have to consider the fact that he may be a backup before the end of next year. 

 

Edited May 9 by Porous Five Hole

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

That’s why arbitration makes sense. Still an RFA after next year and you will better know what you really have.

The long term answer is Levi anyway. Devon already has nothing left to prove in the AHL (.927 save percentage in his 26 games here this year—and even better so far in the playoffs). 
 

For this UPL negotiation, you have to consider the fact that he may be a backup before the end of next year. 

 

Unsure of the numbers post covid, but pre-covid the vast majority of players who saw arbitration cut ties with their teams afterwards.

So if you want the odds of UPL only being a rental for a year arbitration is the right path. 

I would rather overpay a half mil per year over 4 years than to lose another goaltender. We would just be repeating the Ullmark situation. We let him walk, forced UPL into action too early, struggled through it for a season, now possibly refuse to pay him and give Levi the starting role too early. 

[Porous Five Hole]

4 hours ago, Mango said:

Unsure of the numbers post covid, but pre-covid the vast majority of players who saw arbitration cut ties with their teams afterwards.

So if you want the odds of UPL only being a rental for a year arbitration is the right path. 

I would rather overpay a half mil per year over 4 years than to lose another goaltender. We would just be repeating the Ullmark situation. We let him walk, forced UPL into action too early, struggled through it for a season, now possibly refuse to pay him and give Levi the starting role too early. 

Arbitration would buy us two years of UPL because he’s got two years of RFA left and he can go to arbitration twice.  
 

I don’t want to pay extra to buy out some of UPL’s UFA years, which is what you would have to do to sign him long term.  
I’m a Levi truther.  He’s the long term plan.  Two more years is enough to groom Levi to be the guy.
 

We didn’t have a “Levi” at the time in the Ullmark scenario. UPL wasn’t ready then. Levi will be ready in two years…he might be ready next year.  

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Pimlach said:

They cannot afford to let another goalie get away.   

Too true. That's part of the problem Kevyn has created for himself too though. If he had a solid veteran in the fold UPL would have less bargaining power but with only himself and Levi as viable goalies his agent is going to play hardball. 

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Too true. That's part of the problem Kevyn has created for himself too though. If he had a solid veteran in the fold UPL would have less bargaining power but with only himself and Levi as viable goalies his agent is going to play hardball. 

You’re right. Looking at the comps, looks to me like that leverage gets used pretty consistently. Lot of goalies got decent money with some pretty skimpy track records.

I’d even go as far to say that Levi gives Kevyn a better deterrent than some of the other GMs had available. Alex Nedelkjovic? Jaro Halak?

Edited May 9 by dudacek

[Pimlach]

13 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

That’s why arbitration makes sense. Still an RFA after next year and you will better know what you really have.

The long term answer is Levi anyway. Devon already has nothing left to prove in the AHL (.927 save percentage in his 26 games here this year—and even better so far in the playoffs). 
 

For this UPL negotiation, you have to consider the fact that he may be a backup before the end of next year. 

 

Everyone is quick to hand the job to Levi.  I’m not.  

[Archie Lee]

21 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

That’s why arbitration makes sense. Still an RFA after next year and you will better know what you really have.

The long term answer is Levi anyway. Devon already has nothing left to prove in the AHL (.927 save percentage in his 26 games here this year—and even better so far in the playoffs). 
 

For this UPL negotiation, you have to consider the fact that he may be a backup before the end of next year. 

 

I’m not down on Levi. I urge you though to have a look at the list of young AHL goalies in the last decade who have had seasons with a 920 save %. and higher. The list is pretty long. Some ended up being very good NHL goalies. Most didn’t. 

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I’m not down on Levi. I urge you though to have a look at the list of young AHL goalies in the last decade who have had seasons with a 920 save %. and higher. The list is pretty long. Some ended up being very good NHL goalies. Most didn’t. 

Perfect example: Dustin Wolf put up a sv% in the AHL last year of .932% in 55 games. He put up .922% in 36 games this year in the AHL. In his 17 NHL starts this season, he has a .893%

I would give UPL 3-4 years around 4million. I think that only the very top of the goalies are worth deals over 4 years as the position seems so much variance in terms of season to season. 

[Taro T]

On 5/10/2024 at 8:51 AM, LGR4GM said:

Perfect example: Dustin Wolf put up a sv% in the AHL last year of .932% in 55 games. He put up .922% in 36 games this year in the AHL. In his 17 NHL starts this season, he has a .893%

I would give UPL 3-4 years around 4million. I think that only the very top of the goalies are worth deals over 4 years as the position seems so much variance in terms of season to season. 

In an ideal world, yeah, UPL would get a deal right in that range.

But, we're in the world where Adams is most likely planning on running UPL & Levi back as the only 2 NHL caliber goalies in the organization.  That likely buys UPL & his agent some additional leverage.

Still not fully convinced that UPL can get out of his own head when there is legit competition for the starting job.  IF he can, he could end up in Vasilevskiy territory.  He showed starting around January a quickness under control moving from post to post few big men can exhibit.  But he never did that at the pro level prior to that stretch.  So, he's overcome a lot of issues that had been holding him back and that particular one, he'd given no prior indication that he could do so and yet he did it.  So, he could very well get out of his own head when somebody is credibly trying to steal his job.  (Overcome 1 major issue, you have a credible chance to overcome another.)

Glad the next contract isn't out of my bank account because there's still a very real chance whatever way they decide to go with his contract they end up betting wrong; still would like to see Adams do what he should've done last off-season and bring in a credible veteran backup to compete with the 2 kids.  (More credible than Comrie.)  And let the best 2 play in Buffalo and the other play in Ra-cha-cha unless it's a near wash between Levi and one of the others for the 2nd job in which case Levi starts the year in Ra-cha-cha because he can.  How they play during the season then determining if there are reevaluations in the pecking order.

Though UPL turned into a very nice "feel good story" we need to remember he played himself out of the starters job a year ago and was really bad in this past pre-season.  Think it was @dudacek who pointed out, it wasn't Levi nor the coaches that played him out of a job; it was UPL that played himself out of a job.  If he took the right lessons from that, he could be a legit starter in this league for a long time.  We'll know this fall whether he did take the right lessons.  (But they have to decide what to pay him before that is a known.  Hoping they guess right.)

Edited Friday at 08:11 PM by Taro T

[kas23]

I think UPL is only going to get better next year under Ruff. I don’t know whether the 2nd half of the year was our defense or UPL or both, but I would hope to think our D is going have to take a big step under Ruff. If Power and Byram both improve, UPL will appear better, even with no self-improvement.